Originally Posted by Randar68
When using performance-based analysis of draft-eligible players, you're limiting yourself to really only college players. Doing that more than halves your draft/talent-pool. On top of that, unless you have top 10 picks every year (where the top-producing college players, especially pitchers, usually end up), you're pool of players has been greatly pulled over with a fine-tooth comb. This method is no-doubt a good way to draft players with a higher chance of making/producing in the majors and generally in a shorter period of time, but it also GREATLY reduces the chances for drafting/developing a star/stud and limits the utility gained by drafting anywhere after the top 12-15 rounds.
Intersting point, has anyone done an analysis of say the top 50-100 players in MLB to see which were drafted out of college v. HS? I've heard the "college players are better bets to make the bigs, but less to be stars" argument before, but have never seen any data analyzing that situation.
Off the top of my head, I'd guess the FA signings from Latin America might be the biggest source of stars, and that's more akin to HS drafting than colleges. But that's not based on any analysis.