Originally Posted by jeremyb1
As far as whether a player came out of HS, JUCO, College, etc. the belief is that aside from age, which is taken into account, those factors matter very little. Obviously a player that doesn't leave college until he's a high school senior will never be able to reach high A at 19 as Sweeney has but theoretically if he's ability's the same then when he's 22 and making his debut he'll be at a high level or will advance extremely quickly. A college player can't ever reach the majors at 19 or 20 but those events are extremely rare. Players like Prior, Alex Fernandez, or Ryan Wagner have made it in little or not time.
I guess I just don't buy that. For example, the players you mention are the extreme rarity, like Pujols. There is an adjustment period for any player changing levels. A player comes along every 5 years that performs as Jeremy Reed did, but it is too rare an event to base any kind of statistical analysis upon. HS players have to physically and mentally mature in addition to the challenges college hitters face, such as, the transition to wood bats, the more talented pitching, and vice versa for pitchers adjusting to more patient hitters that destroy mistakes and keeping the ball down in the zone.
You see, these are all learned abilities and factors, that are not simple in nature, yet talented players all learn these various factors at different rates/stages.
I guess, IMO, there are simply too many factors when it comes to HS/College age kids developing to come up with any kind of relatively simple statistical formula to predict it.