Originally Posted by Wealz
I'll give you Garland, but he came at a price that was too good to refuse -- Matt Karchner. Even though he's a success story, I think that you'd have to agree that he's devolped slower than any of us would have liked. I understand he's 24, but with as many major league innings as he has under his belt his career performance has been a mild disappointment to this point.
Have the Sox been snake bitten or is it just the nature of drafting pitchers? Minor league pitchers, pitchers in general, suffer career-threatening injuries at a much, much higher rate than position players. When you draft a pitcher not only do you have to hope they develop well, you have to pray that they don't get hurt. For the most part, you don't have to worry about a career-ending injury with a position player.
I think it would behoove a mid-revenue team like the Sox to use their premium picks every year, say first 6-7 rounds, on position players. Let someone else waste millions of dollars developing pitching for you. For instance, if the Sox had hitters in the minors they could have dealt them to the Expos for Vazquez. Or if one of those hitters could have replaced Ordonez, Ordonez could have been used to get a pitcher. I don't think it's essential to develop pitching, but it is essential to have a strong farm system, and position players are the easiest way to do that IMO
I definitely understand that sentiment and it's one of the most frustrating things for organizations as well as fans who follow prospects closely. Do you stop drafting pitchers early altogether? I really don't think that's the way to go. After the first or second round, you don't have many impact players left who are available with any kind of track record.
Elbow injuries are no longer really a long-term issue for pitchers. Shoulder injuries now appear to be the death knell. I think teams still try to draft pitching, and I think one way to approach it is to just trust in the law of large numbers. The chances of drafting impact position players after the first couple rounds is probably less than that for pitchers (haven't looked at actual numbers to support that).
I think position/pitcher, it doesn't matter, really, because after the first 10-20 picks in most drafts, you're going to be getting a player, even in the first round, that is going to have some question-marks. IMO, you always take your highest rated player at your given pick. Financials often get in the way, and how you rate pitching vs. Position prospects is always to play a role. I do have less confidence in Shaffer to land quality pitching, but he is always looking for that HR-pick. You swing and miss a lot, I'm just hoping he starts connecting, LOL!