Originally Posted by doublem23
30 HR for a rookie is a major accomplishment
This is still a guy who has never played a full 162-game MLB season and is coming from a league that's, at best, AA-equivalent. There is going to be a sharp learning curve for Abreu, maybe in a year or two we can talk about 30 HR production being disappointing for him (hopefully that is the case), but in his first pro season in the Majors, that would be a real nice year for him.
I would be thrilled if he hit 30 this season, I just don't think that's the ceiling. I know it's his first year, but he's 27 this season. There is definitely a drop in star power when you look at the age 25+ guys on that list vs the younger guys.