Originally Posted by mzh
Fair enough, but tell me exactly what about him throwing his fastball is deceptive? He has a little hitch at the top of his windup, he's not hiding the ball like Dontrelle Willis. Is that why you seem to think that it's not sustainable production? All of the empirical evidence is still against your point.
It's his release point really. Most batters complain they don't see the ball out of his hand very well, making him seem a lot faster than he is. The reason this isn't sustainable is that over the course of dozens of at bats, individual hitters adjust, and the deception loses effectiveness over time. At that point, he'll be on the merit of his pitches themselves with those hitters...of which his fastball, physically, is a pretty average combination of velocity and movement. If that's his best pitch, he's not a mid-rotation starter. Now...that said, it's not a sure thing that hitters will catch on. There are scouts that say he's not only really good at hiding his ball, but that he's the best they've seen in years. So...there's a chance. I just wouldn't take that bet if we could get a ton for him now.