Originally Posted by TheVulture
Well, during the period when according to you Santiago fell apart, his ERA wasn't even above four. I don't know where you get that he has long man stuff either. It's been his plus stuff that has allowed him success so far; it is his command that needs work. And if Johnson has just enough to stick around for a few years then that will be a massive improvement over Axelrod.
Santiago's batting average allowed skyrocketed in the second half from .221 to .272. Usually when that happens, it's because of lost control, and on the surface his decline in k/bb could explain some of that. But then you look further and see that his command didn't suffer in the second half (or rather, anymore as he was still hitting the same spots with the same frequency), and neither did his velocity suffer. The league is catching up to him fast, and his new peripherals .272/.371/.427 is pretty on par for most career projections for him (which was a ceiling of a 4-5 starter). Basically, he has bad command/control, and the league has adjusted to knowing this. It took longer than normal because he throws a trick pitch, but that effect has essentially worn off.
Also...his ERA from August 1st on was 4.41.
I was considering Danks our fifth starter...but I do see your point. I also don't think it matters. We're going to have 3 or 4 5th starters in our rotation (depending on if we trade Quintana or not). We don't have a good rotation.