Originally Posted by doublem23
I'm not even considering Santiago part of the rotation next year, but a good point, I guess it is only fair to point out that the other side of the coin is that Peavy could probably be as high as our #2 starter next year if every possible thing goes wrong.
Which there's plenty of precedent for recently.
There's a lot of young guys to look at, so it's a blessing we're not likely to compete this year. And if there's low cost veterans filling needs in the meantime (like Granderson) and some of the young low ceiling pitchers have Santiago/Axelrod years, it's not impossible we could end up with that 82 win team anyway.
Originally Posted by Huisj
According the pitch data, he threw a whopping 112 screwballs this year. That's one every 5 or 6 batters. I suppose it's possible that some of those got classified as changeups since it basically does look like an extreme circle change. Even if you count every changeup he threw as a screwball (which probably isn't accurate), it's still 1 every two batters faced.
I think his struggles later in the year are as much to do with running out of gas (not surprising for a guy who wasn't a starter earlier and had never thrown that many innings before in a season) as with the league figuring him out. His control got worse and he seemed to always be behind in the count, and he got hit harder as a result. You know who had a similar late-season problem the year before? Quintana and Sale. Guess we should have written them off too.
I'm not ready to give up on him yet like so many around here are.
He throws a change that he developed because the screwball wasn't enough. His problem wasn't running out of gas. He didn't lose velocity and his location didn't suffer. His problem was his out of zone pitches for swing and misses went down significantly (the general rule on this is that the league adjusted). Not only did he stop getting swings and misses off his breaking stuff, but now they're balls. Without developing another solid offering, I don't think there's any chance he works out as a starter.