Scherzer, barring some very bad stuff in September, will win it unanimously. He deserves to win. Sale isn't even close, but will probably get a few third-place votes, although that could depend on who is voting this year.
Sale is not a consistent winner, and it isn't only a matter of run support, although he hasn't gotten a lot of that. It's a matter of, in too many cases this season, at least for an elite pitcher, not making the big pitch when he needs to. If you're having a Cy Young season, you don't give up a grand slam after a walk to load the bases when your team has a 3-0 lead in the sixth inning at home. Sale has some impressive numbers, but he isn't winning all the games an elite pitcher should be winning.
I expect more out of Sale than I've seen this year. I hope he is getting the experience this year that will help him win more games in the future.