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Old 09-14-2013, 02:54 AM
TDog TDog is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Modesto, California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StillMissOzzie View Post
Dump, I am usually all in for a good Cub-bashing, but I think this comparison is a stretch. They have a few stats that are similar - Avg, RBI, HRs -, until you get to the strikeouts. Those soul-sucking, rally-killing, totally unproductive strikeouts. Dunn has struck out 61 more times with 55 fewer ABs than Rizzo. Dunn's SO/AB ratio is 35.6% compared to Rizzo's 20.9%. Put this another way, if Dunn had the same number of ABs as Rizzo with the same SO/AB ratio, he'd have 195 strikeouts, 80 more than Rizzo. Feel free to refine these stats for BBs, HBPs, etc, but I would wager the results will still be the same. Dunn strikes out WAY more than Rizzo, with all else being fairly comparable.

The one thing I would poke the Cubs for is locking their guy up for the long term when they still had Rizzo under control for 4 or 5 years. Yes, they are on the hook for a lot more over the next several years as opposed to the Sox having Dunn for $14M for the 2014 season. But I would rather have Rizzo's upside than the almost three years we have seen of Dunn.

SMO
I have been waiting for a few years for the peripheral stat fans to see how damaging strikeouts are to an offense and come up with an OPS thing that adjusts for strikeouts, subtracting a strikeout percentage from the combined percentages. Maybe it's already being calculated somewhere, but all I hear from stats people I talk to is that strikeouts are irrelevant.
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