Originally Posted by SCCWS
I don't have a problem trading Sale. However, I think your logic is wrong. If the "book" on Sale says a career ending/altering injury is coming, then other teams are not going to value him that high. He will be looked at as a short term solution and will not return the value of a Number 1 starter. So the Sox are better holding on to him and if he is till pitching effectively in 2-3 years the "book" will have a different ending and his value will be much higher.
To look at it another way, Sale needs to have two more years like 2012 to jsutify his contract. Forgetting about the give up of free agency, arbitration, etc. If I'm a team trying to win now and have deep pockets (and need pitching), I can easily justfiy Sale today as that team's GM.
How much would it cost on the free agent market to go and get a Sale of 2012? You're probably looking at $18MM per year for 5-6 years. If Sale's 2013-2014 mimic his 2012 and then he blows his arm out the winter of 2014--you essentially paid him $30MM over 4.5 yrs instead of overpaying a free agent who you can owe 3 times taht money too.
At least that's how I would justify it if I were a team like the Yankees or Rangers.