Including tonight's loss, the Sox are now 29-40, for a 0.420 pace. Also including tonight's loss, the Tigers are 39-31 for a 0.557 pace.
If the Sox stay on their current pace, they project out to 68-94. In order for the Sox to finish at 0.500, they have to go 52-41 for the rest of the year, which would be a 0.559 pace - just a few points above the Tigers' current pace.
If the Tigers stay on their current pace, they project out to win 90 games. In order for the Sox to contend and also win 90 games, they would need to go 61-32 the rest of the way, a torrid 0.656 pace.
To recap, the Sox need:
Current pace 0.420 to finish 68-94 ( yay, they won't lose 100 games!
Need a pace of 0.559 to finish 81-81 (yay, another non-losing season!
Need a pace of 0.656 to finish 90-72 (It's gonna happen
, to borrow a North side pipe dream)