Originally Posted by DSpivack
He's not completely wrong. Many free agents don't live up to the contracts they signed. That's not because they lack the will to win or some such nonsense, but because after 7 years of MLB service it's more likely than not that they are on the downsides of their career. Dunn with the Sox isn't putting up the .260-40-100 lines that he did earlier in his career, and that much isn't exactly shocking.
That's true, but Dunn's struggles with the Sox are still nothing short of stunning. The idea that SABR folks think that stats alone can 100% predict the future is another one of these ridiculous strawmen arguments anti-SABR people make to try and justify their old school methods. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance, but the question is which way is better? Even if you hated Dunn and don't think his approach to baseball is good, I would wager to bet that anyone who relies solely on the eye test would be stunned to know that in nearly 300 games with the Sox, Dunn's slash line is .179/.307/.377.