2012 PECOTA had 12teams projected correctly within 5 games, had 12 teams projections off by at least 10 (including the Sox who were at 10). There were 2 right on, and 5 missed by at least 16. The average the W-L were off in the AL was 8.86, and in the NL 8.06. Overall average off by 8.43 games.
It sparks a lot of debate, but good or bad for the team you are pulling for, it's really no more accurate in the end than the posts in the preseason prediction threads. We all know which teams have the best players. If you don't have a roster full of players that have been consistently successful, PECOTA isn't going to rate you that high.
Last edited by dickallen15; 02-19-2013 at 02:57 PM.