Originally Posted by dickallen15
but there is a reason they still play the games.
Who has argued this point at all? Just because BP and PECOTA aren't 100% perfect all the god damn time doesn't mean they still aren't the best.
Originally Posted by sullythered
From the fangraphs piece:
"Projection systems are not perfect models, and as the White Sox have shown, there are important variables that are not being measured as well as they could be."
I'm not someone who believes that the PECOTA people are somehow biased against the Sox, I just think that a system like this is not suited to predict whole team outcomes. Even if they started taking into consideration the White Sox, frankly, unbelievable training staff, there are always going to be other variables that pop up that can't all be accounted for.
Right, which is why anyone who understands how these things works knows their limitations in predicting a full, 162-game down to every game. That's impossible. The only people who really put a lot of stock into PECOTA and other stats-based models are the nimrods who post **** like "ERG, SEE, NUMBERZ ARE FOR HOMERSEXUALS. 7 GAMES DIFFERENTS BLA BLA BLA BLA BLA"