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Old 02-19-2013, 12:55 PM
blandman blandman is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
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Originally Posted by sullythered View Post
The writer himself says that BP has been particularly and significantly wrong when it comes to the White Sox. He then proceeds to tell us why. The reasons given are exactly why whole team projections are really just for fun, and not very useful, as opposed to specific player projections. There are too many variables to project an entire team's success as anything other than a fun little exercise. Meaningless, and not useful to anyone. Not even gamblers, really.
He wasn't bashing the system, he was explaining away the singular long-time inconsistency in the model.

Originally Posted by sullythered View Post
From the fangraphs piece:

"Projection systems are not perfect models, and as the White Sox have shown, there are important variables that are not being measured as well as they could be."

I'm not someone who believes that the PECOTA people are somehow biased against the Sox, I just think that a system like this is not suited to predict whole team outcomes. Even if they started taking into consideration the White Sox, frankly, unbelievable training staff, there are always going to be other variables that pop up that can't all be accounted for.
But the model works well with other teams. Generally, large discrepancies are easily explained, usually by players not on the roster having an impact. There is no need to account for future trades or unexpected callups in the model. They are not rating the farm system, bank account of the team, or the general manager. They are rating the players on the roster and nothing more. As a system, it works really really well.
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