Originally Posted by blandman
All you picked out of that was the surface argument?
After random chance, we've only outperformed their model by 5 games/year. It's really not all THAT significant. Outperforming their model by 5 games this year would make us .500. Clearly not all that significant.
The writer himself says that BP has been particularly and significantly wrong when it comes to the White Sox. He then proceeds to tell us why. The reasons given are exactly why whole team projections are really just for fun, and not very useful, as opposed to specific player projections. There are too many variables to project an entire team's success as anything other than a fun little exercise. Meaningless, and not useful to anyone. Not even gamblers, really.