Originally Posted by blandman
All you picked out of that was the surface argument?
After random chance, we've only outperformed their model by 5 games/year. It's really not all THAT significant. Outperforming their model by 5 games this year would make us .500. Clearly not all that significant.
Considering you have been saying the Tigers are a threat for 116 wins, wouldn't you say their PECOTA projection of 92 is a bit off? How are you defending a system you personally think is 24 games off?
I personally like BP, but don't take these projections too seriously. If you go back, some are accurate, others are not. They get a couple playoff teams right. A couple of last place teams wind up in the post season. People should just take them for what they are.