Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesox029
Situation one: Die
Has a person who bases his decision purely on statistics
Person gets prediction wrong because he forgot to consider another factor
Situation two: PECOTA
Has people who base decisions purely on statistics
People get prediction wrong because they forgot to consider another factor
This makes it a valid analogy. That is what an analogy is.

By the technical definition, yes, if you take what you say as the case in each situation, but the analogy is horrible because your first example is a terrible one. No one in the first situation would "forget to consider" that a die only has 6 whole numbers. The relevant statistic is that there is a 1/6 chance that any number will come up on any roll. An average number there has zero bearing at all on prediction of results. Thus, you are saying two nonanalogous situations are analogous.