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Old 02-14-2013, 02:36 PM
kittle42 kittle42 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Lakeview
Posts: 22,459

Originally Posted by Whitesox029 View Post
Situation one: Die
-Has a person who bases his decision purely on statistics
-Person gets prediction wrong because he forgot to consider another factor
Situation two: PECOTA
-Has people who base decisions purely on statistics
-People get prediction wrong because they forgot to consider another factor
This makes it a valid analogy. That is what an analogy is.
By the technical definition, yes, if you take what you say as the case in each situation, but the analogy is horrible because your first example is a terrible one. No one in the first situation would "forget to consider" that a die only has 6 whole numbers. The relevant statistic is that there is a 1/6 chance that any number will come up on any roll. An average number there has zero bearing at all on prediction of results. Thus, you are saying two non-analogous situations are analogous.
Ridiculousness across all sports:

(1) "You have no valid opinion because you never played the game."
(2) "Stats are irrelevant. This guy just doesn't know how to win."
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