Originally Posted by voodoochile
No I didn't say that, but there certainly are a group of people who buy into this stuff way more than it's worth. I mean the standard deviation is what 5-6 wins (from past years that is what I remember)? So basically they are saying that the Sox are a 99% confidence interval to win 59-95 games. Even if' it's 3 its 68-87. Way to go out on a limb there BP...
For what seems like the millionth time, PECOTA does. not. project. W-L.
Do they do a simple manipulation to convert their data to W-L? Kind of yes. But that is not what the formulas spit out.