Originally Posted by TheOldRoman
The Sox offense was better than the vaunted Tigers' offense last year. And that was with Viciedo in his first full season and with a complete black hole at 3B, even after Youkilis was acquired. But of course, nobody on the Sox will improve at all, all their vets will hit massive cliffs, Sale will totally get injured cuz he's skinny, Peavy's arm is likely to fall off just because he once had a surgery or something, and Danks might never throw a baseball again because I said so. Meanwhile, Torii Hunter will repeat the career season he had at age 36, Victor Martinez will come back from major surgery just as good as before, and rampant obesity will somehow propel the middle of Detroit's lineup to hit even better than last year.
There is a line from The Usual Suspects, "the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist." In that same vein, the most impressive thing BP ever did was convince people it was relevant.
Come now. It isnt' so much that any individual pitcher on our staff has injury concerns as it is that all of them do and there's no one waiting to step in effectively. At the same time, the pitching is the ONLY strength on the team.
Victor Martinez has been preparing to return for more than a year. The Tigers were smart and didn't rush him. In the meantime, Danks had a procedure in the offseason and is rushing to be ready for opening day. If you can't see the difference there, there's no helping you.
Originally Posted by dickallen15
Considering the Sox were 4th in the AL in runs scored last season, I think they even scored more runs than the Tigers, with Konerko banged up most of it, and even with Youkilis, about a .600 OPS out of 3B overall, Ramirez pretty ineffective, it's not unreasonable to think the offense should be enough if Viciedo, Beckham or Flowers improves.
From the article, PECOTA has shortchanged the Sox an average of about 7 wins per season. They were correct once, in 2007. If you ever get the BP yearly, they even admit they always are a little light on their White Sox win total projections. Chances are they will be light again.
The Sox were 4th in runs scored mainly because:
1. Konerko and Dunn had tremendous first halfs. Injury and reality set in.
2. Rios had a tremendous year, but seems to always follow that up with a terrible year. Betting on him to not hit .240 next year is a risky proposition, at best. He's been just as horrible as good two of the last four years.
3. AJ. Yeah, he wouldn't bring that same production again. But we've replaced our best offensive season last year with a guy that's going to be an offensive black hole.
Originally Posted by voodoochile
No, it's more that when you factor in their standard deviation once you get to 95% accuracy, it really doesn't tell you much.
Also the pitching staff is going to be better than it was last year, IMO. I would lay odds this team will be at or above .500 again.
If no one on the staff gets hurt I think we'll get to .500 too.