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Old 12-12-2012, 02:59 PM
shes shes is offline
WSI Church Elder
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,035

Originally Posted by doublem23 View Post
Dude, give me a break. Did you just start paying attention to baseball like 10 minutes ago? Get some perspective. Here's the top 5 position player prospects, according to BA, from a 5-year window from 2001-2005.

  • Josh Hamilton (#1)
  • Corey Patterson (#2)
  • Sean Burroughs (#6)
  • Ichiro (#9)
  • Nick Johnson (#10)
  • Hank Blalock (#3)
  • Sean Burroughs (#4)
  • Carlos Pena (#5)
  • Joe Mauer (#7)
  • Wilson Betemit (#8)
  • Mark Teixeira (#1)
  • Rocco Baldelli (#2)
  • Jose Reyes (#3)
  • Joe Mauer (#4)
  • Brandon Phillips (#7)
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • BJ Upton (#2)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Rickie Weeks (#5)
  • Alex Rios (#6)
  • Joe Mauer (#1)
  • Delmon Young (#3)
  • Ian Stewart (#4)
  • Joel Guzman (#5)
  • Casey Kotchman (#6)
By my count, that's 20 names...

Guys who lived up to their potential and became one of the best players in the world: Hamilton, Ichiro, Mauer, Teixeira, Reyes... I'll be generous and give you Baldelli, too, as who knows what his career could have been. So that's 6.

Guys who became solid MLB players but did/have not lived up to their hype: Johnson, Pena, Phillips, Upton, Young, Rios, Weeks... 7.

Guys who are absolute busts: Patterson, Burroughs, Blalock, Betemit, Stewart, Kotchman... That's 6 more.

Guy who busted so bad I don't even know who he is and I had to check Wikipedia to make sure he wasn't killed in a car accident or something... Joel Guzman... That's the last 1.

So we're talking, even with the absolute highest rated MiLB prospects, it would appear the superstar to complete and utter bust rate is still less than 1:1.
You can spin it that way if you are for the trade, or you can spin it as Rany Jazayerli did for Grantland:

Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout

Yes, Delmon Young was once the Minor League Player of the Year, and if you want to spin this trade for the Royals, you can bring up Young's name as a cautionary tale. And after a promising start to his career, Rocco Baldelli was ravaged by injuries and his career ended at age 28. But every other player on that list has gone on to become a well-above-average player at his position. Most of them became stars. At least a few will go into the Hall of Fame.

When you compare him more specifically to players who were regarded as highly as he is now, the chances of Myers becoming at least an All-Star level player look closer to 90%, while the chances of him totally busting are close to nil.

The Royals didn't just trade a good prospect; they traded one on the level of Trout, Bruce, Paulie, Manny, etc. They could've put Myers in RF and used their FA money to sign a pitcher like Sanchez or trade some less valuable minor leaguers for someone like Floyd and ultimately they would have won 79 games instead of 82 and would've been able to keep Myers going forward. The only way Moore's plan ends up being the better one is if guys like Butler and Gordon have MVP-level seasons, Shields is the AL Cy Young, and their borderline-horrible starters become average-to-slightly above average innings-eaters a la Garland or Floyd for us in recent years, enabling them to sneak into the playoffs and make a WS run. It's just so unlikely.
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