Originally Posted by Domeshot17
Anything can happen with prospects, but lets not fool ourselves. Those player comparisons and those guys know NOTHING about prospects. The guys on the big board and top available are the ones that do. Harold Reynolds is the MLBTV version of Chris Berman.
Ryan Howard came into the draft at 40 OBP 70 Power, Keon is a 30-60. Keon does play better defense, but it isn't like that is a game changer for 1st round 1st base talent.
The actual player comparisons they use on the screen, they compared a guy who hit 7 home runs in high school to Juan Pierre. That is how much of a joke those are.
If you want to admit Keon was picked to give them more financial flexibility for Hawkins, I can live with that. But Keon was picked with the White Sox strategy of taking guys a round or 2 early and signing them at slot or less and not a round late and paying over slot.
Well, Howard was also picked coming out of college, so it's understandable he's more advanced. I agree those player comparisons are dumb anyway but I only quoted it to show he's not a complete turd.
The last point about picking Keon to give them more flexibility is exactly what I'm saying. I read on Twitter that the Sox though Smorel was a better player but didn't think they could sign him at a rate that would give them the flexibility they need.
I know you follow prospects a lot, but to actually think you know, on draft day, whether a pick is a good one or not is the pretense of knowledge. Look at the first rounds the past few years. 2005 was the last year where you had more than 5 solid big leaguers. Part of that is that it takes time for guys to develop (and 2007, 2008, 2009 drafts will look better a few years from now), but a big part of it is the MLB draft is a total crap shoot. 15 scouts can look at the same player and see 15 different career trajectories. Some people will be right and some will be wrong but no one knows for sure right now.
I much rather the Sox take a HS kid with upside then a college kid with upside, given the high school kid has 3 more years to develop.
Shoeless Joe Jackson: The first two were high and tight, so where do you think the next one's gonna be?
Archie Graham: Well, either low and away, or in my ear.
Shoeless Joe Jackson: He's not gonna wanna load the bases, so look low and away.
Archie Graham: Right.
Shoeless Joe Jackson: But watch out for in your ear.