Originally Posted by Craig Grebeck
His bat is special for a catcher. I think his floor in the league is a .750 OPS catcher with okay defense. That's top ten production in the league.
People who hyped that are looking at his ceiling, which could very well be an .875 OPS. Perhaps they were overzealous, perhaps we learn more about a player's offensive/defensive ability as they progress through higher levels. I tend to agree with the latter.
Players change, OEO. As I stated earlier, you learn more about a player the more they progress through the minor leagues.
Obviously they change, but this is quite the drastic turn. He's gone from one extreme to the other. If their projections change that much from year to year, how can you trust it?
Besides the point, however, because this still doesn't answer my question. How much of these opinions come from actually seeing the player and how much come from just collecting opinions of scouts (there's never a number, just 'some' scouts, 'many' scouts, 'multiple' scouts) and drawing a conclusion?