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View Full Version : Why Andruw Jones was not "low risk" and why KW may have made the right move


jabrch
02-28-2008, 11:10 AM
240? That's beefy for a CF...certainly for someone who hit so poorly last year. You'd think he'd find better shape somehow to show up in.

Where are the people saying that KW should have paid him the big bucks because it was only for a short period of time?




Andruw Jones reported to Dodgers camp weighing 240 pounds.

Jones is listed at 210 pounds on MLB.com, but has clearly put on a significant amount of weight in recent years. Jones stole 20-plus bases in each of his first four seasons and swiped 11 bags in 2001, but hasn't reached double digits since and went 5-for-7 on the bases last year.
Source: Atlanta Journal Constitution (http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2008/02/27/andruw_0228.html)


The season has a long way to go - and Jones may end up having an MVP season. But to draw clear lockdown conclusions that this was a bad move in the winter was...well...very unsmart of many of our WSI in-house GMs.

palehozenychicty
02-28-2008, 11:12 AM
240? Dag, I wonder if it entered Atlanta's thinking to not resign him with that weight dilemma. Boras doesn't help either, but still.

Craig Grebeck
02-28-2008, 11:15 AM
He would have been a better investment than Torii Hunter, that's not debatable.

goon
02-28-2008, 11:19 AM
He would have been a better investment than Torii Hunter, that's not debatable.


Neither were worth investing in.

btrain929
02-28-2008, 11:24 AM
Neither were worth investing in.

5/90 isn't worth investing in.

2/36 isn't too bad for a hitter and fielder of his calibur.

goon
02-28-2008, 11:26 AM
5/90 isn't worth investing in.

2/36 isn't too bad for a hitter and fielder of his calibur.

Who shows up 30 lbs. over his nominal playing weight...

Where can I sign up?!

btrain929
02-28-2008, 11:30 AM
Who shows up 30 lbs. over his nominal playing weight...

Where can I sign up?!

One thing I will give you is that after you have a horrendous season like Andruw did last year, I'd think the last thing you'd expect to see from him when he reported to spring training was this....

jabrch
02-28-2008, 11:36 AM
5/90 isn't worth investing in.

2/36 isn't too bad for a hitter and fielder of his calibur.


240 lbs, coming off of a craptastic season last year? Are you serious? 2/36 would probably be a very bad idea for 2 years. The only thing it is better than is a very bad idea for 5 years. None the less - it is still a very bad idea.

Rockin Robin
02-28-2008, 11:36 AM
Juan Ooribe thinks he needs to drop some lbs.

Jjav829
02-28-2008, 12:22 PM
Who shows up 30 lbs. over his nominal playing weight...

Where can I sign up?!

210 is his listed weight. I don't think Andruw has been at 210 for a few years now.

He's still a phenomenal player.

jabrch
02-28-2008, 12:28 PM
He's still a phenomenal player.

He hit .222/.311/.413 last season. While I didn't watch him play everyday, I saw enough to know that he is not the same CF he was 5 years ago. He's still well above league average - but not enough to carry him given how poorly he hit, nor to justify the money he just got, and certainly not to justify what he was actually asking.

Phenomenal? I'm not so sure...He was a true phenom when he came up at age 19 and for most of his first 10 years. The stats don't tell the story about how good he really was. But what we saw last year was far from phenomenal.

Jjav829
02-28-2008, 01:45 PM
He hit .222/.311/.413 last season. While I didn't watch him play everyday, I saw enough to know that he is not the same CF he was 5 years ago. He's still well above league average - but not enough to carry him given how poorly he hit, nor to justify the money he just got, and certainly not to justify what he was actually asking.

Phenomenal? I'm not so sure...He was a true phenom when he came up at age 19 and for most of his first 10 years. The stats don't tell the story about how good he really was. But what we saw last year was far from phenomenal.

It's one year. One year for a player who, at the age of 30, has hit 368 career home runs. Through his first ten years, he was well on his way toward a Hall of Fame career.

Not a phenomenal player? If this guy was a Sox and put up these numbers before hitting 30, people would be drooling and calling him one of the best players of all time.

There is little question Andruw's defense has slipped. But, as you said, he's still above league average.

As for what he was paid, well, he's worth whatever a team is willing to pay him.

asindc
02-28-2008, 02:33 PM
It's one year. One year for a player who, at the age of 30, has hit 368 career home runs. Through his first ten years, he was well on his way toward a Hall of Fame career.

Not a phenomenal player? If this guy was a Sox and put up these numbers before hitting 30, people would be drooling and calling him one of the best players of all time.

There is little question Andruw's defense has slipped. But, as you said, he's still above league average.

As for what he was paid, well, he's worth whatever a team is willing to pay him.

What most posters are saying, though, in response to the thread question is that Jones is not worth that kind of money for the Sox and it was good that KW recognized. It's about value. Jones would not have given us good value for the money.

Flight #24
02-28-2008, 02:39 PM
I think I'd still say that Jones at 2/$36 (or whatever it was) + Gio+DLS would have been at least as good a bet for the organization as Swisher. And I say that thinking that Nick's going to have a very good year. But even an overweight Andruw Jones is a better CF than Swisher, and the difference at the plate in my opinion is equivalent to the value you get from having Gio & DLS either to pitch on the S Side or to use in an alternate trade.

I'd much much much rather have Gio than Broadway/Ohka/Haeger in the event that one of Contreras/Danks/Floyd struggles.

jabrch
02-28-2008, 02:54 PM
It's one year. One year for a player who, at the age of 30, has hit 368 career home runs. Through his first ten years, he was well on his way toward a Hall of Fame career.

Not a phenomenal player? If this guy was a Sox and put up these numbers before hitting 30, people would be drooling and calling him one of the best players of all time.

There is little question Andruw's defense has slipped. But, as you said, he's still above league average.

As for what he was paid, well, he's worth whatever a team is willing to pay him.


Wait a sec...I'm not saying he WASN'T a phenomenal player. I am saying he isn't one. There's a difference. Andruw Jones 2008 is not Andruw Jones 2003. You'd agree with that - right?

As far as "worth what a team is willing to pay", then we have a different definition of "worth". There's a difference between what someone earns, and what value they provide. I hope you'd agree with that also - right?

Jones was wonderful. But calling him phenomenal without being clear that you are talking either about over the course of his career, or his direct past is misleading a bit. Last year, he was hardly phenomenal. And to say that he will be so this year would be the same as if we were projecting return to form for any Sox player who struggled last year - it would be a reach.

jabrch
02-28-2008, 02:56 PM
But even an overweight Andruw Jones is a better CF than Swisher,


I have no idea how you can possibly say that with any degree of confidence. I don't think you have seen much of Swisher defensively, and if Jones is truly 30 lbs heavier than his weight last year, you haven't seen any of him.

champagne030
02-28-2008, 03:06 PM
And I say that thinking that Nick's going to have a very good year. But even a one-legged Andruw Jones is a better CF than Swisher,

Fixed it for you. :cool:

Flight #24
02-28-2008, 03:24 PM
I have no idea how you can possibly say that with any degree of confidence. I don't think you have seen much of Swisher defensively, and if Jones is truly 30 lbs heavier than his weight last year, you haven't seen any of him.

Swisher is not a CF. He may not be Mackowiak, but he's still not a CF. The hope is that he'll be tolerable defensively. Andruw Jones was a superlative CF. Superlative enough that he could lose quite a few steps and still be better than Swisher defensively. That's what I base my opinion on. Sure - if he looks like Mongo McMichael, he's probably worse than Swisher. But if he's a bit heavier than last year (when there's no way he was 210), he's highly likely to be better than Swisher.

(And I also recall something about a thread that Swish looked heavy but "he'll work it off in ST", but somehow Jones coming in heavy is destined to stay that way?)

Taliesinrk
02-28-2008, 03:29 PM
FWIW, I've heard Jones say that in the past he's lost up to 30 lbs over the course of the season just by the toll playing 162 games takes on a player

FedEx227
02-28-2008, 03:33 PM
FWIW, I've heard Jones say that in the past he's lost up to 30 lbs over the course of the season just by the toll playing 162 games takes on a player

Okay Andruw...

he looked 30 lbs heavier at the end of the last year.

You actually have to run for balls or actually get on-base for this effect to happen.

Some people on this board really need to watch Jones last year. They have this perception that he's even half the player he was 5 years ago and that's not true, he just ate another whole player.

Jjav829
02-28-2008, 03:45 PM
Wait a sec...I'm not saying he WASN'T a phenomenal player. I am saying he isn't one. There's a difference. Andruw Jones 2008 is not Andruw Jones 2003. You'd agree with that - right?

As far as "worth what a team is willing to pay", then we have a different definition of "worth". There's a difference between what someone earns, and what value they provide. I hope you'd agree with that also - right?

Jones was wonderful. But calling him phenomenal without being clear that you are talking either about over the course of his career, or his direct past is misleading a bit. Last year, he was hardly phenomenal. And to say that he will be so this year would be the same as if we were projecting return to form for any Sox player who struggled last year - it would be a reach.

Fine, since this seems to be mostly an argument about semantics...

Andruw Jones has been a phenomenal player over the course of his career who struggled last season.

Yes, he's not the same player he was in 03. But, you're the same person who criticizes Sox fans for having an opinion on the 08 team without seeing it first. So...wouldn't you have to agree that you have no idea what the 08 Andruw Jones will be like? Will he be the player he was from 96-06, or the player he was in 07?

As for what a player is "worth," it is pretty simple. A player is "worth" whatever a team thinks he is "worth." There is absolutely no system that defines exactly what a player should be making based on past statistical output, talent, expected future output, etc. If there was, maybe you could find exactly what Andruw is worth. But there isn't. The closest thing we have is looking at other player's contracts, which, in this case, isn't a great tool because contracts have been spiking recently. Jones' new teammate Juan Pierre, for instance, will make $8 million this season. Compared to that, Jones at $18 million looks reasonable. On the other hand, Curtis Granderson will make $1 million this year. However, Granderson was still on his rookie contract before signing a 5-year deal earlier this month. You can do this for every player in baseball. There is no system to determine what a player should make or what they are "worth" based on their production. So, the simple answer is that a player is "worth" whatever a team is willing to pay based on the player's total package and the team's needs. And for a team like the Dodgers, desperate for a power hitter in the middle of their lineup, Jones is worth more. For a team like the Yankees, with an already great lineup, Jones probably wasn't worth $18 million a year.

Jjav829
02-28-2008, 03:47 PM
Okay Andruw...

he looked 30 lbs heavier at the end of the last year.

You actually have to run for balls or actually get on-base for this effect to happen.

Some people on this board really need to watch Jones last year. They have this perception that he's even half the player he was 5 years ago and that's not true, he just ate another whole player.

Everyone saw Andruw last year. His swing was horribly messed up. We all know he's not the defensive player he was at 25 years old. The question is whether he will get back to the player he was pre-2007, at least offensively. If you think he will be a .222/.311/.413 hitter the rest of his career, that's your opinion. I certainly wouldn't agree with it.

FedEx227
02-28-2008, 04:00 PM
Everyone saw Andruw last year. His swing was horribly messed up. We all know he's not the defensive player he was at 25 years old. The question is whether he will get back to the player he was pre-2007, at least offensively. If you think he will be a .222/.311/.413 hitter the rest of his career, that's your opinion. I certainly wouldn't agree with it.

Not at all, but I feel we've seen the last 40HR, 120RBI season from him as well.

I'd venture to guess he'll get closer to his career averages maybe a bit lower likely .250/.330/.470ish still good for a 25 HR, 80-90 RBI season.

Flight #24
02-28-2008, 04:16 PM
Not at all, but I feel we've seen the last 40HR, 120RBI season from him as well.

I'd venture to guess he'll get closer to his career averages maybe a bit lower likely .250/.330/.470ish still good for a 25 HR, 80-90 RBI season.

Even though I'd project him out a bit higher (esp were he playing in the Cell), I'd still take those #s in CF at $18M along with Gio & DLS over Swisher + whatever the cash difference is (esp since they haven't used that cash elsewhere so far).

goon
02-28-2008, 04:58 PM
He hit .222/.311/.413 last season. While I didn't watch him play everyday, I saw enough to know that he is not the same CF he was 5 years ago.

I saw him strike out five times in one game last season. That was pretty awesome. I actually watch the Braves quite a bit, they're on TBS throughout the season and he was god awful at the plate almost all year. People say he's lost a step in the OF, but from my perspective, he still plays solid defense and he would certainly be more than adequate at US Cellular.

Though I think it's important to note that Swisher isn't necessarily the White Sox CF for 2008, so the whole Andruw vs. Nick debate doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, at all. Chances are Swisher will be in LF for the majority of the season, but that's just what I think, especially if Owens is an everyday starter. Jones wasn't worth the time. Defensively he fits the bill, but that's about it.

FarWestChicago
02-28-2008, 08:43 PM
+DLS...DLS

& DLSYou and munch either need to start a fan club or get a room. :D:

voodoochile
02-28-2008, 08:57 PM
You and munch either need to start a fan club or get a room. :D:

Can you put in a hack that turns DLS into "Cy Young II"?:tongue:

Brian26
02-28-2008, 08:57 PM
Everyone saw Andruw last year. His swing was horribly messed up. We all know he's not the defensive player he was at 25 years old. The question is whether he will get back to the player he was pre-2007, at least offensively. If you think he will be a .222/.311/.413 hitter the rest of his career, that's your opinion. I certainly wouldn't agree with it.

Jjav- not withstanding any stats, a lot can be said for a guy who signs a big money contract as a free agent and then walks into camp 30 lbs overweight. From watching this game for so many years, you should recognize how important attitude is within the clubhouse.

Flight #24
02-28-2008, 10:55 PM
You and munch either need to start a fan club or get a room. :D:

Because I'd rather spend money and keep a talented kid even if I'm not convinced he's a lock HOFer than trade him away?:scratch:

It's not about DLS being great, it's how you use the available resources. KW seems to be happy to let cash sit in pocket rather than doing what he deems overpaying, even if the rest of MLB doesn't seem to agree with him. (And by cash in pocket, I mean to date, I admit he could still use it either for signing bonuses at draft time or in other deals, but I don't have a strong sense that that's what he's planning.)

ksimpson14
02-28-2008, 10:58 PM
I applaud Kenny, he's good, but unless we're talking elite, you don't just go for big name players for the hell of it. It sounds kind of absurd, even typing it, but I see so many teams go that route and go nowhere. When we have multiple holes, and possibly limited resources, I don't want another HR or nothing hitter that will make the offense look dead again. The defense is good, but hell, I'd rather take the cheap route with BA and keep his defense (and we have the other options if you like offense) and spend the money elsewhere

Jjav829
02-28-2008, 11:18 PM
Jjav- not withstanding any stats, a lot can be said for a guy who signs a big money contract as a free agent and then walks into camp 30 lbs overweight. From watching this game for so many years, you should recognize how important attitude is within the clubhouse.

As I said before, 210 was his listed weight. That by no means makes it accurate.

There are even pictures now. Here is Andruw Jones on September 23 2007.

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Sports/4e29068a-e831-4405-91ad-077b83925f01_ms.jpeg

Here is Andruw Jones on February 28th, 2008.

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080229/capt.273f427d19be491ea9856a994bf4fcde.atlanta_dodg ers_ajones_spring_baseball_flnh114.jpg


http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080229/capt.65ea580d044a429e9fccd98cb171c9df.atlanta_dodg ers_jones_spring_baseball_flnh115.jpg

30 pounds heavier? Andruw hasn't been 210 in a few years.

FarWestChicago
03-01-2008, 07:26 AM
Because I'd rather spend money and keep a talented kid even if I'm not convinced he's a lock HOFer than trade him away?:scratch:Well Flight, if you can't find a room for you and Munch, perhaps you could locate your sense of humor. :wink:

Flight #24
03-01-2008, 07:37 AM
Well Flight, if you can't find a room for you and Munch, perhaps you could locate your sense of humor. :wink:
:redface::gulp:

FarWestChicago
03-01-2008, 07:50 AM
:redface::gulp:I apologize. Munch has just been such a riot this winter I couldn't resist the dig. You didn't deserve that. Thanks for taking it well. :cool:

chaerulez
03-01-2008, 08:11 AM
Something tells me if Jones hits 30 HRs while playing a season in hitter friendly Dodgers Stadium, people on this board will start to turn on KW...

Me personally I think a two year deal of Jones is pretty low risk. Even if he hits only in the .250 range his defense is still well above average. And his power won't just go away. I don't see why our starting OF couldn't including Jones and Swisher, so I don't understand the comparsions people are making.

FarWestChicago
03-01-2008, 08:15 AM
Something tells me if Jones hits 30 HRs while playing a season in hitter friendly Dodgers Stadium, people on this board will start to turn on KW...:scratch: They turned on KW before Christmas of 2005.

chaerulez
03-01-2008, 08:19 AM
:scratch: They turned on KW before Christmas of 2005.

All the Rowand fanboys sure did.

FarWestChicago
03-01-2008, 08:20 AM
All the Rowand fanboys sure did.You got that right. :redneck

Mohoney
03-03-2008, 10:31 PM
Wait a sec...I'm not saying he WASN'T a phenomenal player. I am saying he isn't one. There's a difference. Andruw Jones 2008 is not Andruw Jones 2003. You'd agree with that - right?

As far as "worth what a team is willing to pay", then we have a different definition of "worth". There's a difference between what someone earns, and what value they provide. I hope you'd agree with that also - right?

Jones was wonderful. But calling him phenomenal without being clear that you are talking either about over the course of his career, or his direct past is misleading a bit. Last year, he was hardly phenomenal. And to say that he will be so this year would be the same as if we were projecting return to form for any Sox player who struggled last year - it would be a reach.

Two things I have to disagree with here:

1) Predicting him to hit as poorly as he did last year would be just as big a reach as predicting a return to his glory days where he was putting up monster seasons.

2) The White Sox ARE counting on a return to form for some of these guys. Our offense pretty much hinges on it.

If there was a way to pull it off and the financial resources were available, I definitely wouldn't have minded Andruw Jones in CF with Nick Swisher in LF. That's a huge revamp for an offense that really struggled last year.

IIRC, most of the Torii Hunter rumors had us at 5 years and $75 million. Getting a potentially huge bat that also brings solid defense to a premium position for 3 years and $39 million less than that seems like a risk worth taking to me.

Even if it didn't work out and Andruw Jones sucked here, I wouldn't blame our front office for a signing like this. The guy's track record is well worth the gamble.

jabrch
04-19-2008, 12:18 AM
I know it is early - but I felt like checking out Andruw Jones....

.157/.259/.235

Hitmenof77
04-19-2008, 02:06 AM
Something tells me if Jones hits 30 HRs while playing a season in hitter friendly Dodgers Stadium, people on this board will start to turn on KW...

Me personally I think a two year deal of Jones is pretty low risk. Even if he hits only in the .250 range his defense is still well above average. And his power won't just go away. I don't see why our starting OF couldn't including Jones and Swisher, so I don't understand the comparsions people are making.


When did Dodger Stadium turn into a hitter's park??? It's has been and is a pitcher's park!!!!

Elephant
04-19-2008, 02:28 AM
Something tells me if Jones hits 30 HRs while playing a season in hitter friendly Dodgers Stadium, people on this board will start to turn on KW...

Me personally I think a two year deal of Jones is pretty low risk. Even if he hits only in the .250 range his defense is still well above average. And his power won't just go away. I don't see why our starting OF couldn't including Jones and Swisher, so I don't understand the comparsions people are making.

But why would you spend all that money on an aging guy like Jones who's clearly past his prime as a hitter when you have a young guy like Quentin and a stellar CF in Anderson?

Basically he's low risk for about four teams and we're not one of them.