Rotoworld looks back at the top prospect list from 2003

[santo=dorf]

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&articleid=29890

Noteworthy players:
6. Joe Borchard (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3389) - OF White Sox - Age 24 - ETA: June 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #9, 2002 #9, mid-2002 #5

BA: #28, BP: #22

.000/.667/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 3 AB for Single-A Winston-Salem
.272/.349/.498, 20 HR, 59 RBI, 139/49 K/BB, 2 SB in 438 AB for Triple-A Charlotte
.222/.243/.389, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 14/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 36 AB for Chicago (AL)

2003 quote: … a potential 35-homer outfielder in the majors.

BA had him 12th in 2002, but downgraded him a bit, probably because of the lofty strikeout total. I should have done the same, but switch-hitters with his kind of power don't come around very often. Borchard hit just .196/.287/.313 in 179 at-bats for the Marlins last season and will be a long shot to make the Braves out of spring training.

17. Gavin Floyd (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3836) - RHP Phillies - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #94, mid-2002 #26

BA: #9, BP: HM

11-10, 2.77 ERA, 119 H, 140/64 K/BB in 166 IP for Single-A Lakewood

2003 quote: If he stays healthy, he could be the top pitching prospect in baseball at this time next year.

Floyd's stuff isn't what it was five years ago, and consistency with his still fine curveball has never come. There were some positive signs late last year, but he's now a fifth starter at best.

21. Jon Rauch (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3166) - RHP White Sox - Age 24 - ETA: May 2003
Previous rankings: 2001 #10, mid-2001 #10, 2002 #13, mid-2002 #48

BA: #92, BP: NR

7-8, 4.28 ERA, 91 H, 97/42 K/BB in 109 1/3 IP for Triple-A Charlotte
2-1, 6.59 ERA, 28 H, 19/14 K/BB in 28 2/3 IP for Chicago (AL)

2003 quote: The 6-foot-11 right-hander has a low-90s fastball and fine control of his breaking pitches. He still has the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.

No, not really. Rauch was a unanimous elite prospect after a 2000 season in which he struck out 187 and walked 49 in 166 innings, and he still needed to be taken seriously after a nice comeback from his shoulder problems. However, he was no future top-of-the-rotation guy. He has turned into a valuable setup man while throwing 178 2/3 innings the last two years.

31. Bobby Jenks (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3824) - RHP Angels - Age 22 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: None

BA: #60, BP: #40

3-5, 4.82 ERA, 50 H, 64/14 K/BB in 65 1/3 IP for Single-A Rancho Cucamonga
3-6, 4.66 ERA, 49 H, 58/44 K/BB in 58 IP for Double-A Arkansas
1-1, 1.08 ERA, 33 H, 54/17 K/BB in 41 2/3 IP for Scottsdale (AFL)

2003 quote: Of course, of the top 30 or so pitching prospects in the minors, Jenks is one of the most likely not to have any kind of career at all in the majors. He's also one of the two or three pitchers most likely to develop into a real ace.

Jenks' arm wasn't going to hold up as a starter, but it looks like he'll last as a closer, especially after trading in some strikeouts for quicker outs in 2007.

42. Andy Sisco - LHP Cubs - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None

BA: #53, BP: NR

7-2, 2.43 ERA, 51 H, 101/39 K/BB in 77 2/3 IP for short-season Single-A Boise

2003 quote: A second-round pick in 2001, Sisco is a 6'9", 260-pound left-hander with a 91-95 mph fastball and a filthy split-fingered offering. He's a pretty big injury risk at this point, but he has ace ability.

Sisco has remained healthier than expected, so he really should have made it. There's still time left for him to turn his career around, but he'd have to show an entirely new level of commitment.

56. Kris Honel (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=458) - RHP White Sox - Age 20 - ETA: Sept. 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #80

BA: #73, BP: NR

9-8, 2.82 ERA, 128 H, 152/52 K/BB in 153 1/3 IP for Single-A Kannapolis
0-0, 1.69 ERA, 3 H, 8/3 K/BB in 5 1/3 IP for Single-A Winston Salem

2003 quote: Honel has No. 2-starter potential if he can avoid arm problems.

Honel's arm blew up in 2004, and he's posted ERAs over 5.00 when he's been able to pitch the last three years.

116. Anthony Webster (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=1045) - OF White Sox - Age 19 - ETA: 2007

131. Miguel Olivo (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3567) - C White Sox - Age 24 - ETA: Now
140. Arnaldo Munoz - LHP White Sox- Age 20 - ETA: August 2003


I think they did pretty well with their list. Every Sox player on this list has pretty much turned into a dud.

[MUsoxfan]

What the hell is up with that Jenks quote from 2003? How can he be the most likely to never make an impact in the majors and the most likely to become an ace? :?:

[Madvora]

What the hell does this Jenks quote mean?

Jenks is one of the most likely not to have any kind of career at all in the majors. He's also one of the two or three pitchers most likely to develop into a real ace.

[spiffie]

What the hell does this Jenks quote mean?
He was a headcase who threw 101 MPH and had a sick curve. He either would have flamed out entirely, which he damn near did, or he was going to become a stud in the majors, which he did.

[FedEx227]

^ That's how I read it. He held his own destiny, if he got his stuff together he could be great, but if he continued down his wrong path he would've flamed out.

[MUsoxfan]

To me, it sounded like a cop-out. Rotoworld would be right either way

[KyWhiSoxFan]

I think they did pretty well with their list. Every Sox player on this list has pretty much turned into a dud.

Par for the course for the Sox. It has been pretty amazing how consistently bad they have been at selecting players that never develop to their potential. The sad thing is, there's nothing more exciting than seeing a homegrown product develop into a star playing for the Sox, watching their progress year by year and showing development. I feel cheated.

[soxfanreggie]

I pretty much look at our #1 pick and say, "He's doomed..."

[asindc]

To me, it sounded like a cop-out. Rotoworld would be right either way

Actually, I think this was the most accurate assessment of Jenks. How could Rotoworld know if he would clean up his act for sure? That seemed to be the only question about Jenks, not his playing ability.

[SoxNation05]

Shocking how well regaurded Rauch was with these stats:
7-8, 4.28 ERA, 91 H, 97/42 K/BB in 109 1/3 IP for Triple-A Charlotte
2-1, 6.59 ERA, 28 H, 19/14 K/BB in 28 2/3 IP for Chicago (AL)

[MUsoxfan]

Actually, I think this was the most accurate assessment of Jenks. How could Rotoworld know if he would clean up his act for sure? That seemed to be the only question about Jenks, not his playing ability.

Well then in my estimation, Lance Broadway can either be a HOF pitcher or he'll never pitch a day again in MLB.

I've come up with that after looking at all the scouting reports

[ChiSoxPatF]

I know predicting predicting player development is like buying junk bonds but, geez, they are off.

[StepsInSC]

Well then in my estimation, Lance Broadway can either be a HOF pitcher or he'll never pitch a day again in MLB.

I've come up with that after looking at all the scouting reports

Oh c'mon. There's a difference between waffling due to fear out of making the wrong prediction, and using extreme opposites to make a point. Whereas your example about Broadway adds absolutely nothing new to the discussion, their statement about Jenks (although it could have been written more clearly) does serve to illustrate Jenks.

[spiffie]

Well then in my estimation, Lance Broadway can either be a HOF pitcher or he'll never pitch a day again in MLB.

I've come up with that after looking at all the scouting reports
See, there's a bet I'd gladly take. Since most likely Broadway will pitch in MLB, but not be a HOF.

Jenks on the other hands was likely either to never pitch in MLB or become an multiple time all-star caliber pitcher. Look around at prospects throughout baseball and see how many of them you would want to bet on to have only one of those two possible outcomes.

[kjhanson]

Well then in my estimation, Lance Broadway can either be a HOF pitcher or he'll never pitch a day again in MLB.

I've come up with that after looking at all the scouting reports

Have Lance's struggles with alcoholism, an abusive family and bigot family, lack of education, and depression been part of his scouting report? No. Those were all elements of Jenks' scouting report when he was with the Angels. Everyone knew Jenks had the talent of an absolute stud, but it was up to him, not Rotoworld, if it all panned out.

The best sports-related article I've ever read was in ESPN the magazine from either 2002 or 2003. It chronicled Bobby's struggles with the topics I identified above. This was well before he was with the Sox, but I still found it an extremely shocking and gripping article.

[asindc]

Well then in my estimation, Lance Broadway can either be a HOF pitcher or he'll never pitch a day again in MLB.

I've come up with that after looking at all the scouting reports

Does Broadway have some publicly known, well-documented off-field issue that is inhibiting his progress? If not, then the analogy does not fit, IMO.:smile:

[rdivaldi]

Shocking how well regaurded Rauch was with these stats:
7-8, 4.28 ERA, 91 H, 97/42 K/BB in 109 1/3 IP for Triple-A Charlotte
2-1, 6.59 ERA, 28 H, 19/14 K/BB in 28 2/3 IP for Chicago (AL)

Considering he was the minor league player of the year in 2000, it's not too surprising. Until the shoulder injury in 2001, he was viewed as a sure thing.

[BadBobbyJenks]

Does Broadway have some publicly known, well-documented off-field issue that is inhibiting his progress? If not, then the analogy does not fit, IMO.:smile:


The rotoworld quote seemed rather odd to me until the lightbulb went off about the well documented off the field issues he was dealing with. Not a cop out at all, like some have said already it was probably the best analysis on Jenks that could have been made at the time.