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View Full Version : Danks/Floyd & Championship 4/5 Starters


kjhanson
01-26-2008, 12:33 PM
Read every publication and every message board and if they're down on the White Sox it is because of our pitching. On the flip-side, all optimism is coated with "if Danks and Floyd perform". History suggests that the performance of 4th and 5th starters in the regular season may be less important than some believe. As a White Sox fan, this "over-weighting" stems from two things.
1.) The debacle that was the 5th starter in 2003
2.) The extent to which we were spoiled by having 5 consistent starters in 05.

If you take a look at the last 4 World Series winners, however, you'll see that there's no evidence suggesting that you have to have above average 4th and 5th starters to get to the postseason and win it all - or on the contrary, that you have to have a dominant offense:

07 Red Sox:
1-3 Starters: 44-27, 3.95 ERA
4-5 Starters: 32-23, 5.11 ERA (four guys)
***Lester and Gabbard went 8-0 combined, that helps

06 Cardinals:
1-3 Starters: 33-22, 4.22 ERA
4-5 Starters: 28-32, 5.55 ERA (four guys)

05 White Sox:
1-3 Starters: 45-23, 3.52 ERA :smile:
4-5 Starters: 30-21, 4.09 ERA (three guys) :D:

04 Red Sox:
1-3 Starters: 51-27, 4.11 ERA
4-5 Starters: 22-19, 4.46 ERA

The Red Sox and Cardinals had terrible 4/5th starters the past two years, yet they were able to overcome this deficiency by hitting the ball well and more importantly, having reliable 1-3 starters. The Sox and 04 Red Sox had balance up and down the rotation, but once again, it was dominance at the top that set them apart from the rest of the league.

As a whole, Danks and Floyd don't need to be world-beaters for us to compete. They're 4th and 5th starters, and nothing more. Hell, if one guy goes out and ends up 15-12, 4.75 ERA and the other one is 9-13, 5.30 ERA we're right on par with the last two Series winners. I don't think that's asking a lot out of two guys with A LOT of natural talent (thank you nasty breaking balls). Now Contreras and the #3 starter is a different story. But for now at least, can we stop using the phrase "If Danks and Floyd step-up" as a caveat each time we mention us competing?

canOcorn
01-26-2008, 12:42 PM
Read every publication and every message board and if they're down on the White Sox it is because of our pitching. On the flip-side, all optimism is coated with "if Danks and Floyd perform". History suggests that the performance of 4th and 5th starters in the regular season may be less important than some believe. As a White Sox fan, this "over-weighting" stems from two things.
1.) The debacle that was the 5th starter in 2003
2.) The extent to which we were spoiled by having 5 consistent starters in 05.

If you take a look at the last 4 World Series winners, however, you'll see that there's no evidence suggesting that you have to have above average 4th and 5th starters to get to the postseason and win it all - or on the contrary, that you have to have a dominant offense:



05 White Sox:
1-3 Starters: 45-23, 3.52 ERA :smile:
4-5 Starters: 30-21, 4.09 ERA (three guys) :D:



Floyd and Danks combine for 30 wins......... :rolling:

oeo
01-26-2008, 12:45 PM
Floyd and Danks combine for 30 wins......... :rolling:

I must ask...why is Danks always a laughingstock? He'll be 23, and if he can keep the ball down in the zone, he will be more than fine this year.

sox1970
01-26-2008, 12:50 PM
Bullpen - 24 (based on average AL playoff team 05-07)
Buehrle - 16
Vazquez- 16
Contreras-13
Floyd - 13
Danks - 13

=95 wins

turners56
01-26-2008, 12:51 PM
Thing is, Contreras is our 3rd starter...

This is a great post, but let's not forget a 45 year old is pitching after our top 2. Although I have slight confidence that Jose can bounce back, he is still a huge liability. The Cardinals had okay starters in Carpenter, Suppan, and a combination of Weaver and Reyes, however they were a 83 win team in 2006, 83 wins in the AL Central gets us 3rd place. The Red Sox on the other hand had Beckett (in 07), Matsuzaka, and Schilling. 3 starters who can be relied on to perform well. We can rely on Buehrle and Vazquez, but can we do that for Contreras? We need another starter if Kenny expects us to do anything this year, bring in a solid 3rd or 4th starter then we can talk playoffs.

It's Dankerific
01-26-2008, 12:53 PM
Bullpen - 24 (based on average AL playoff team 05-07)
Buehrle - 16
Vazquez- 16
Contreras-13
Floyd - 13
Danks - 13

=95 wins

You should keep an ongoing tally as the season progresses. that would be interesting.

e.g.
b - 2/16
v- 4/16
etc.

turners56
01-26-2008, 12:53 PM
I must ask...why is Danks always a laughingstock? He'll be 23, and if he can keep the ball down in the zone, he will be more than fine this year.


I like Danks, I think he has the mindset and talent to be a good starter in the near future. Floyd worries me more than anything.

Gavin
01-26-2008, 01:10 PM
It'd be interesting to see how the 4-5's did in the playoffs.

Jjav829
01-26-2008, 01:16 PM
It'd be interesting to see how the 4-5's did in the playoffs.

Most of them probably didn't pitch, or only did so out of the pen. A #4 starter in the playoffs will only start a maximum of 3 games combined in all 3 rounds. And usually he won't make all 3 starts because the team sweeps in the DS or goes back to their #1 for game 4 (or skips the #4 starter in another round).

Gavin
01-26-2008, 01:22 PM
True enough. Comes in handy to have a good fourth starter though in the CS/WS.

Frater Perdurabo
01-26-2008, 01:43 PM
I agree that Contreras is the windsock/bellweather for this rotation. If he regains is 2005/2006 form, the Sox should win 90+ games. If he pitches like he did in 2007, it might be tough to rise above a .500 record.

RowanDye
01-26-2008, 02:11 PM
I agree that Contreras is the windsock/bellweather for this rotation. If he regains is 2005/2006 form, the Sox should win 90+ games. If he pitches like he did in 2007, it might be tough to rise above a .500 record.


I don't think Contreras will have any problem winning 13-15 games. Contreras will not be facing aces like he did at the beginning of last year, remember that Ozzie said he will likely be pitching 4th BEHIND Danks.

I don't expect Contreras to regain his '05 into early '06 form, but I think he will be strong.

I'm still more worried about Danks/Floyd combining for 25+ wins. With another year under his belt and a little more luck/help from his offense, I think Danks can easily attain 13 wins.

The wild card though is Floyd. We just have no idea what we are going to get from a guy that MUST produce for the team to have a chance.

A. Cavatica
01-26-2008, 02:41 PM
I don't think Contreras will have any problem winning 13-15 games. Contreras will not be facing aces like he did at the beginning of last year, remember that Ozzie said he will likely be pitching 4th BEHIND Danks.

Our rotation scares me. Vazquez at #2 is only a year away from being a laughingstock because of his predictable 5th/6th inning collapses. He's got great stuff, but he's better as a #3 or #4.

Contreras couldn't beat #5 starters for most of last year. He was the surest L in baseball for a couple of months, and the Sox would've given him away to anyone willing to pick up the contract. I think he has a chance to rebound, but it's a joke to pencil him in at #3.

Danks gave up a ton of home runs and finished with a high ERA. I like the kid's makeup, and chances are he'll be better, but maybe it'll take him another season or two to get it together. He's a #5, nothing more yet.

Floyd has been just awful for most of his career. He had a decent September, pitching for a team out of contention, but he has yet to show me anything in pressure situations. He's not even a #5.

we be jake
01-26-2008, 03:23 PM
Danks - my new favorite name in baseball.

turners56
01-26-2008, 03:50 PM
Our rotation scares me. Vazquez at #2 is only a year away from being a laughingstock because of his predictable 5th/6th inning collapses. He's got great stuff, but he's better as a #3 or #4.

Contreras couldn't beat #5 starters for most of last year. He was the surest L in baseball for a couple of months, and the Sox would've given him away to anyone willing to pick up the contract. I think he has a chance to rebound, but it's a joke to pencil him in at #3.

Danks gave up a ton of home runs and finished with a high ERA. I like the kid's makeup, and chances are he'll be better, but maybe it'll take him another season or two to get it together. He's a #5, nothing more yet.

Floyd has been just awful for most of his career. He had a decent September, pitching for a team out of contention, but he has yet to show me anything in pressure situations. He's not even a #5.

Javy's 6th inning problem was not real noticeable last year. He logged 200 + innings and 6.75 innings per start, which means he usually pitches into the 7th. Danks needs to get his secondary pitches over, his low 90s fastball is due to get pounded, that's why he's giving up a bunch of homers. Same thing goes for Floyd, get the curve over and he's dominant. It's a control issue for both of these guys, especially Floyd. As for Jose, if he can lodge a ERA below 5 and doesn't walk 80 guys, I'm perfectly fine with it.

canOcorn
01-26-2008, 05:01 PM
I must ask...why is Danks always a laughingstock? He'll be 23, and if he can keep the ball down in the zone, he will be more than fine this year.

It has nothing to do with keeping the ball down in the zone. He just needs to not throw 3-1 and 2-0 fastballs. I don't think he's a laughingstock. He's young and has potential, but it wasn't that he tired last season and it ruined his stats. He pretty much stunk from late May and beyond. Batters waited him out and he wouldn't throw strikes. I believe he has upside and will come along the same track as Garland - it's going to take time and he'll never dominate. Expecting a breakout season of 15 wins and a sub 4 ERA isn't realistic IMO.

Mohoney
01-26-2008, 08:52 PM
I'm thinking that our best bet would be to rely on a better bullpen to win a lot of late inning games, and if we're still in the race in July, we can pick up a starter to take the place of anybody that is injured or underperforming.

One problem I do see, though, is that there isn't anybody that can come up from the minors to fill in for an extended stretch if somebody goes down with an injury early. Broadway is really the only name that comes to mind now that Gio is gone.

Tragg
01-26-2008, 09:09 PM
The thing is, Danks and Floyd are emminently better prepared than anyone we wheeled out there in 03-04, and probably more talented as well. Now, I'd like to have someone in reserve - i.e. 3 battling for 2 spots, with the loser getting good bullpen work. Maybe that's Broadway.