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View Full Version : Loiza=Contreras=Vasquez ?


misty60481
01-09-2008, 09:20 AM
It seems like we get 1 or 2 years that these pitchers are really dominent, then for some reason they lose something and turn intp average pitchers. Will this be the same with Vasquez, we have high hopes that this year he will produce like he did last year.
Remember in 03 Loiza was close to being best pitcher in AL then he lost it and turned into a just average pitcher. Jose seems to be going in same line, will it hit Vasquez ?

cws05champ
01-09-2008, 09:34 AM
It seems like we get 1 or 2 years that these pitchers are really dominent, then for some reason they lose something and turn intp average pitchers. Will this be the same with Vasquez, we have high hopes that this year he will produce like he did last year.
Remember in 03 Loiza was close to being best pitcher in AL then he lost it and turned into a just average pitcher. Jose seems to be going in same line, will it hit Vasquez ?

Three different pitchers, I don't think you can draw conclusions about Vazquez from the other two. Javy and Contreras have showed one thing, that it is mostly mental for them. Once Contreras got comfortable (with his family in the US) and we brought El Duque on he became dominant. He goes through troubles with his marriage last year, he struggled. Javy had not spent more than one season with any team in 4 seasons before last year. You think moving yourself and family around year after year would not affect anyone? I beleive if Javy is comfortable he could be one of the top pitchers in the AL...we shall see.

oeo
01-09-2008, 09:47 AM
It seems like we get 1 or 2 years that these pitchers are really dominent, then for some reason they lose something and turn intp average pitchers. Will this be the same with Vasquez, we have high hopes that this year he will produce like he did last year.
Remember in 03 Loiza was close to being best pitcher in AL then he lost it and turned into a just average pitcher. Jose seems to be going in same line, will it hit Vasquez ?

-What Contereras did at the end of 2005 and the beginning of 2006 was what was expected of him when he came over. When he went to the DL early in 2006, things started to fall apart. Not sure what happened there, whether it was mechanics and it just snow-balled, or what...but you can look back to that DL stint and that's where the wheels started to fall off.

-Vazquez has shown success earlier in his career. Last year wasn't a career year, he's actually had two years that were better.

-Loaiza, OTOH, is just not a very good pitcher. He had an unbelievable 2003, but that's it. That's your definition of a career year...I'm just glad we got something for him in 2004.

In other words, I don't think there's any similarities between the three pitchers...bad comparisons.

santo=dorf
01-09-2008, 10:01 AM
Please, please, please I am begging everyone to spell it correctly. The Vasquez-Vazquez spelling is as bad as the Valentin-Valentine spelling a few years ago.

When we had Jose Valentin, we had Joe Valentine in the minors.
We currently have Javier Vazquez, and we have Carlos Vasquez in the minors.

As for the subject, I don't think it's too coincidental that Javier pitched as great as he did in some of his years with the Expos when the Sox were playing like the Expos last season.

Chicken Dinner
01-09-2008, 10:07 AM
Please, please, please I am begging everyone to spell it correctly. The Vasquez-Vazquez spelling is as bad as the Valentin-Valentine spelling a few years ago.

When we had Jose Valentin, we had Joe Valentine in the minors.
We currently have Javier Vazquez, and we have Carlos Vasquez in the minors.

As for the subject, I don't think it's too coincidental that Javier pitched as great as he did in some of his years with the Expos when the Sox were playing like the Expos last season.

I guess they need to put players names in the "spell check" function for ya. :D:

oeo
01-09-2008, 10:17 AM
As for the subject, I don't think it's too coincidental that Javier pitched as great as he did in some of his years with the Expos when the Sox were playing like the Expos last season.

Those 2002 and 2003 Expos teams were not your typical suckfests from the Expos. IIRC, they were actually in the Wild Card race for a bit in at least one of those years.

And I really don't want to get into this argument again, but Vazquez had a very bad June and July in 2006 which skewed his numbers. He bounced back in August and September, when the Sox were still in the hunt...it was the offense that blew up and scrapped the season, not Javier Vazquez.

johnr1note
01-09-2008, 10:19 AM
-What Contereras did at the end of 2005 and the beginning of 2006 was what was expected of him when he came over. When he went to the DL early in 2006, things started to fall apart. Not sure what happened there, whether it was mechanics and it just snow-balled, or what...but you can look back to that DL stint and that's where the wheels started to fall off.

-Vazquez has shown success earlier in his career. Last year wasn't a career year, he's actually had two years that were better.

-Loaiza, OTOH, is just not a very good pitcher. He had an unbelievable 2003, but that's it. That's your definition of a career year...I'm just glad we got something for him in 2004.

In other words, I don't think there's any similarities between the three pitchers...bad comparisons.

Oeo's analysis of Loiza is absolutely correct. His year in 2003 is an aberration -- in his 13 year career so far, he's had 3 seasons when his ERA has been below 4.50 -- his 2.90 ERA in 2003 is completely out of place. He was a very average or slightly below average pitcher for his entire career.

Contreras decline could be attributable to the "career year" syndrome, age, or, if you look at his stats, a trend towards eventual mediocrity. When he started with New York in 2003, he was lights out. Then, 04 was a very mediocre year. He's traded to the Sox, and things seem to turn around. 05 he's lights out again. 06 begins the decline, and 07 was very mediocre. Is it age? There was some sense that issues about getting his wife and family out of Cuba distracted him in his final season in NY -- are there those kind of issues facing him now? Does he need a Cuban buddy on the team like El Duque? But he's not at all like Loiza.

Vazquez has been much more consistent and has had better year by year stats then either of the other two. His ERA is lower than the other two. Vazquez's issues have been more situational -- or should I say, he's been more inconsistent on a micro level -- He's shown brilliance for 3 to 5 innings, then collapses. I think Loiza and Contreras have fallen into more prolonged slumps of mediocrity.

tstrike2000
01-09-2008, 10:29 AM
Please, please, please I am begging everyone to spell it correctly. The Vasquez-Vazquez spelling is as bad as the Valentin-Valentine spelling a few years ago.

When we had Jose Valentin, we had Joe Valentine in the minors.
We currently have Javier Vazquez, and we have Carlos Vasquez in the minors.

You mean you don't remember Jose Valentine? He would lure women to the ballpark with just a twinkle of his magic stache.

Vazquez is the most talented of the three pitchers IMO in terms of complete repertoire. Contreras is very hittable unless the forkball is working. I agree that Loaiza was a one year wonder since he hasn't done much except for '03.

PalehosePlanet
01-09-2008, 10:39 AM
Those 2002 and 2003 Expos teams were not your typical suckfests from the Expos. IIRC, they were actually in the Wild Card race for a bit in at least one of those years.

And I really don't want to get into this argument again, but Vazquez had a very bad June and July in 2006 which skewed his numbers. He bounced back in August and September, when the Sox were still in the hunt...it was the offense that blew up and scrapped the season, not Javier Vazquez.

Exactly right, Vazquez pitched his ass off with no results during the stretch run in '06 including a CG 1-0 loss at Fenway to Kasson Freakin' Gabbard. I'm so tired of the he pitches well when there is no pressure bull****.

Furthermore, when we are facing a true ace (Santana, Sabathia, Beckett, etc...) I'd rather have Javy pitch than Buehrle.

The Dude
01-09-2008, 10:40 AM
It seems like we get 1 or 2 years that these pitchers are really dominent, then for some reason they lose something and turn intp average pitchers. Will this be the same with Vasquez, we have high hopes that this year he will produce like he did last year.
Remember in 03 Loiza was close to being best pitcher in AL then he lost it and turned into a just average pitcher. Jose seems to be going in same line, will it hit Vasquez ?

Oeo's analysis of Loiza is absolutely correct. His year in 2003 is an aberration -- in his 13 year career so far, he's had 3 seasons when his ERA has been below 4.50 -- his 2.90 ERA in 2003 is completely out of place. He was a very average or slightly below average pitcher for his entire career.

Contreras decline could be attributable to the "career year" syndrome, age, or, if you look at his stats, a trend towards eventual mediocrity. When he started with New York in 2003, he was lights out. Then, 04 was a very mediocre year. He's traded to the Sox, and things seem to turn around. 05 he's lights out again. 06 begins the decline, and 07 was very mediocre. Is it age? There was some sense that issues about getting his wife and family out of Cuba distracted him in his final season in NY -- are there those kind of issues facing him now? Does he need a Cuban buddy on the team like El Duque? But he's not at all like Loiza.

Vazquez has been much more consistent and has had better year by year stats then either of the other two. His ERA is lower than the other two. Vazquez's issues have been more situational -- or should I say, he's been more inconsistent on a micro level -- He's shown brilliance for 3 to 5 innings, then collapses. I think Loiza and Contreras have fallen into more prolonged slumps of mediocrity.

NO NO NO! since we already started with the wrong spellings....no one corrected this one. LOAIZA!!!!!!!!!

voodoochile
01-09-2008, 10:47 AM
Please is you aren't going to add more to the conversation than spelling corrections, go to another thread...

I don't think you can draw any conclusions from 3 separate pitchers. It doesn't make much sense to do so. Vazquez is also younger and has as good or better an arm than the other guys you mention. Contreras may have indeed hit the wall, but I think he was mostly having a horrible personal year and seemed to bounce back at the end and will be fine this year. Loaiza busted his arm and never bounced back from it. It was probably just burn out from pitching so hard when he had his Cy Young caliber year, but he never recovered.

Time will tell, but wait and see on Contreras and don't expect Vazquez to have a bad year simply because another guy or eve two did something like that in the past...

Jurr
01-09-2008, 12:34 PM
Please is you aren't going to add more to the conversation than spelling corrections, go to another thread...

I don't think you can draw any conclusions from 3 separate pitchers. It doesn't make much sense to do so. Vazquez is also younger and has as good or better an arm than the other guys you mention. Contreras may have indeed hit the wall, but I think he was mostly having a horrible personal year and seemed to bounce back at the end and will be fine this year. Loaiza busted his arm and never bounced back from it. It was probably just burn out from pitching so hard when he had his Cy Young caliber year, but he never recovered.

Time will tell, but wait and see on Contreras and don't expect Vazquez to have a bad year simply because another guy or eve two did something like that in the past...
Right on. Contreras is an enigma from the mental standpoint, and I agree that personal distractions probably killed the guy last year. I don't think anyone can concentrate on their job(s) when discord abounds on the home front.
This team needs a good start to the season. Period. The last year and a half has been a killer for the team's confidence, and it seemed like both units could not get it together at the same time to consistently win. If the starters were dealing, the offense sucked. If the offense had a good run, the bullpen would collapse.
I sincerely believe that this team has enough talent to win if the team's mindset is correct. It hasn't been that way since midseason '06.

soxinem1
01-09-2008, 12:39 PM
While I am no big Vazquez fan, the comparision of these three P's is not very solid.

Loaiza is a journeyman fifth starter who had a career year in 2003. He wouldn't be more than #4 on the TBR staff.

Contreras spent most of his prime years in another league/country. He only has four years of MLB experience, and has been very erratic.

Vazquez, the youngest of the group, has the most MLB experience, best stuff, and a more solid track record despite obvious inconsistencies most of his career. He has much better control than the others too.

If I had to pick one of these three for my staff, I pick Vazquez easilly.

SoxSpeed22
01-09-2008, 03:03 PM
I think everyone here agrees on Loiaza.
Contreras had problems, then picked up with El Duque and his family together. He was doing great until he hurt his back and just wasn't the same after that. The divorce didn't help either, but he did better near the end.
Vazquez always had the stuff, he was putting it together last year, and I expect more of the same from him this year.

batmanZoSo
01-09-2008, 03:36 PM
It seems like we get 1 or 2 years that these pitchers are really dominent, then for some reason they lose something and turn intp average pitchers. Will this be the same with Vasquez, we have high hopes that this year he will produce like he did last year.
Remember in 03 Loiza was close to being best pitcher in AL then he lost it and turned into a just average pitcher. Jose seems to be going in same line, will it hit Vasquez ?

That's why you trade Vazquez now. At least with Loaiza they didn't wait too long and they were able to salvage the 20 game winner mystique. Loaiza was one of the most prosperous moves I've ever seen considering what we got out of him and what we got for him.

SBSoxFan
01-09-2008, 05:38 PM
That's why you trade Vazquez now. At least with Loaiza they didn't wait too long and they were able to salvage the 20 game winner mystique. Loaiza was one of the most prosperous moves I've ever seen considering what we got out of him and what we got for him.

Well then, why not trade every guy who has shown some upside? You have to decide to stick with some people or you will never win.

Loaiza was in a new league and learned a cutter. Both of these changes carried him to his near Cy Young year in 2003. In my opinion, Loaiza had a gimmick, Vazquez is just good.

batmanZoSo
01-09-2008, 05:51 PM
Well then, why not trade every guy who has shown some upside? You have to decide to stick with some people or you will never win.

Loaiza was in a new league and learned a cutter. Both of these changes carried him to his near Cy Young year in 2003. In my opinion, Loaiza had a gimmick, Vazquez is just good.

Typical response.

Vazquez has had one good year since Montreal, that's why. And he did it on a team that, like Montreal, was out of contention.

If he goes 16-8 again, I will have been pwned, but I seriously doubt it.

CubsfansareDRUNK
01-09-2008, 06:03 PM
Please, please, please I am begging everyone to spell it correctly. The Vasquez-Vazquez spelling is as bad as the Valentin-Valentine spelling a few years ago.

When we had Jose Valentin, we had Joe Valentine in the minors.
We currently have Javier Vazquez, and we have Carlos Vasquez in the minors.



Agreed. I even dedicated my signature to it a while ago but it hasn't helped apparently.

ode to veeck
01-09-2008, 06:08 PM
Loaiza was the abberation here. He really only had one great year and beyond that new cutter for a few months, he's never really been a great one.

On the other hand, Contreras and Vasquez both definitely have the stuff, and the biggest challenges for them are mostly mental

1989
01-09-2008, 06:32 PM
It seems like we get 1 or 2 years that these pitchers are really dominent, then for some reason they lose something and turn intp average pitchers. Will this be the same with Vasquez, we have high hopes that this year he will produce like he did last year.
Remember in 03 Loiza was close to being best pitcher in AL then he lost it and turned into a just average pitcher. Jose seems to be going in same line, will it hit Vasquez ?

If people are questioning Vazquez about continuing his success to this year, then its only fair to include Josh Beckett in that discussion as well. Take a look at his 06 numbers

guillen4life13
01-09-2008, 06:34 PM
Please, please, please I am begging everyone to spell it correctly. The Vasquez-Vazquez spelling is as bad as the Valentin-Valentine spelling a few years ago.

When we had Jose Valentin, we had Joe Valentine in the minors.
We currently have Javier Vazquez, and we have Carlos Vasquez in the minors.

As for the subject, I don't think it's too coincidental that Javier pitched as great as he did in some of his years with the Expos when the Sox were playing like the Expos last season.

Don't forget Miguel Oliva.

SBSoxFan
01-09-2008, 06:41 PM
Typical response.

Vazquez has had one good year since Montreal, that's why. And he did it on a team that, like Montreal, was out of contention.

If he goes 16-8 again, I will have been pwned, but I seriously doubt it.

Well, who do and don't you want to trade? At the end of 2006, we're you whinging about not trading Buehrle. To me, that's a big part of where you make your money --- in deciding who you are going to stick with. I'm still going to follow the Sox' GM's picks over anyone here.

People make this sound like it's so easy, yet *****, and rightfully so, about how idiotic it is for BP to predict baseball seasons based on such low-dimensional models. Well, running a ML baseball team is equally challenging for the same reasons.