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Lip Man 1
01-07-2008, 06:38 PM
Scott Reifert in his blog at White Sox.com put together a list of every single minor league pitcher traded by Kenny Williams since he took over as G.M.

This list is NOT impressive. I've posted Scott's list and his comments about minor league pitchers (or you can call it the 'trading away the future' if you wish...) for your discussion.

Again this entire subject thread are Scott's comments!

"Lists

Here is a list of minor-league pitchers traded by the White Sox since October 2000 (let me know if we missed any):

2000
Mark Roberts
Brian Schmack
Aaron Myette

2001
Gary Majewski
Mike Williams
Orlando Rodriguez
Andre Simpson
Matt Dewitt
Derek Hasselhoff
Daniel Mozingo
Josh Fogg

2002
Matt Guerrier
Joe Valentine

2003
Eddi Candelario
Jason Aspito
Delvis Lantigua
Edwin Almonte
Royce Ring
Frankie Francisco
Josh Rupe
Tim Bittner
Scott Dunn
Jake Meyer

2005
Ryan Meaux
Daniel Haigwood
Gio Gonzalez

2006
Jeff Bajenaru
Javier Lopez
B.J. LaMura
Daniel Cortes
Tyler Lumsden

2007
Dwayne Pollock

2008
Gio Gonzalez
Fautino De Los Santos

I guess my point is this. I don't think many White Sox fans have lost sleep over trading the pitchers on this list. Off the top of my head, I remember gnashing of teeth when we traded Myette, Fogg, Guerrier, Valentine, Meyer and Lumsden. Josh Fogg has been the most successful ex-Sox minor-league pitcher, but even Josh has moved on from Pittsburgh to Colorado since originally being dealt.

Fans and critics are concerned about trading away prospects. From what I have experienced, reality seems to consistently fall short of promise when it comes to actualizing potential.

The best Sox minor-league-pitcher-to-successful-big-league-pitcher in my time here is Mark Buehrle. And it's safe to say he was "below the radar" for almost all of his career."

Lip

JB98
01-07-2008, 06:43 PM
Given the Sox poor track record of developing their own prospects, I don't see why anyone would object to using prospects primarily as trading chips. Sell high before their development stalls.

batmanZoSo
01-07-2008, 06:46 PM
None of those guys are the caliber of the two we just gave up.

Out of all the starting pitching prospects we've had over the past decade, which ones have been hits? Buehrle and Garland. And we only drafted Buehrle. Such is baseball really. Our development and drafting has been below average but you can make a similar list for any team.

HawkDJ
01-07-2008, 06:47 PM
I can't decide whether this is a good or bad thing. Is it that we're selling high on overrated prospects or is that we just can't draft/develop minor league pitching? Probably a bit of both.

WizardsofOzzie
01-07-2008, 06:50 PM
I can't decide whether this is a good or bad thing. Is it that we're selling high on overrated prospects or is that we just can't draft/develop minor league pitching? Probably a bit of both.
That's what I was thinking. :?:

batmanZoSo
01-07-2008, 06:54 PM
KW is generally good at making trades and that's his biggest strength. I just don't feel these two pitchers where the right guys at the right time for the right guy. In fact it is all the opposite.

steely712
01-07-2008, 06:56 PM
I guess that my only question is why do teams keep dealing with us for minor league pitching, since it seems that no one in our organization seems to be very good at scouting them? It seems as though KW must be good at hyping these untalented arms, but I think that I would rather have someone who can draft some young pitching talent, so that we don't fall off the board every five or six years, because our pitching staff is getting too old. Granted we still do have some pretty good young unproven pitchers that can make a name for themselves this year, but that seems to be one of the things that the sox have gotten good at over the years, is hoping that one of these young guys will overachieve, and turn into another Buehrle, rather than draft some guy you know is gonna be a stud right out of the gates.

btrain929
01-07-2008, 07:08 PM
Scott Reifert in his blog at White Sox.com put together a list of every single minor league pitcher traded by Kenny Williams since he took over as G.M.

This list is NOT impressive. I've posted Scott's list and his comments about minor league pitchers (or you can call it the 'trading away the future' if you wish...) for your discussion.

Again this entire subject thread are Scott's comments!

"Lists

Here is a list of minor-league pitchers traded by the White Sox since October 2000 (let me know if we missed any):

2000
Mark Roberts
Brian Schmack
Aaron Myette

2001
Gary Majewski
Mike Williams
Orlando Rodriguez
Andre Simpson
Matt Dewitt
Derek Hasselhoff
Daniel Mozingo
Josh Fogg

2002
Matt Guerrier
Joe Valentine

2003
Eddi Candelario
Jason Aspito
Delvis Lantigua
Edwin Almonte
Royce Ring
Frankie Francisco
Josh Rupe
Tim Bittner
Scott Dunn
Jake Meyer

2005
Ryan Meaux
Daniel Haigwood
Gio Gonzalez

2006
Jeff Bajenaru
Javier Lopez
B.J. LaMura
Daniel Cortes
Tyler Lumsden

2007
Dwayne Pollock

2008
Gio Gonzalez
Fautino De Los Santos

I guess my point is this. I don't think many White Sox fans have lost sleep over trading the pitchers on this list. Off the top of my head, I remember gnashing of teeth when we traded Myette, Fogg, Guerrier, Valentine, Meyer and Lumsden. Josh Fogg has been the most successful ex-Sox minor-league pitcher, but even Josh has moved on from Pittsburgh to Colorado since originally being dealt.

Fans and critics are concerned about trading away prospects. From what I have experienced, reality seems to consistently fall short of promise when it comes to actualizing potential.

The best Sox minor-league-pitcher-to-successful-big-league-pitcher in my time here is Mark Buehrle. And it's safe to say he was "below the radar" for almost all of his career."

Lip

I didn't follow Sox prospects that much in the late 90's/early 2000's. Were any of the pitchers above as highly regarded as Gio/DLS or put up similar stats as them?

Daver
01-07-2008, 07:11 PM
I didn't follow Sox prospects that much in the late 90's/early 2000's. Were any of the pitchers above as highly regarded as Gio/DLS or put up similar stats as them?

Fogg was a top ten prospect, as was Guerrier, Myette and Valentine were close, but Valentine was strictly a relief pitcher.

The Immigrant
01-07-2008, 07:16 PM
Weren't Kip Wells and Sean Lowe included in the Ritchie trade in 2001? :dunno:

EDIT - I get it, it's minor league pitchers only.

oeo
01-07-2008, 07:20 PM
I can't decide whether this is a good or bad thing. Is it that we're selling high on overrated prospects or is that we just can't draft/develop minor league pitching? Probably a bit of both.

I'd say it's a good thing. There are very few that actually have the talent to reach the big leagues. Come on, all those guys had the talent/we were going to find someone that did at every point in the draft? Other teams probably have similar lists...or in some cases, they kept all those guys and they amounted to nothing. The Sox sold high on those guys, so it's a good thing. Part of having a farm system is being able to trade parts of it to upgrade the big league club.

That said, I still miss Gio and DLS. :(:

Palehose Pete
01-07-2008, 07:22 PM
Given the Sox poor track record of developing their own prospects, I don't see why anyone would object to using prospects primarily as trading chips. Sell high before their development stalls.

It's great that no one else in the league has caught on to this, yet.

Milw
01-07-2008, 07:29 PM
draft some guy you know is gonna be a stud right out of the gates.
Tough to do when you're (almost) never drafting in the top 10.

Keep the "stud" prospects, I'd rather be in the hunt every year like the Sox have been most of the past two decades.

munchman33
01-07-2008, 07:31 PM
That list is meaningless. We've never had a player as talented as DLS in our system, let alone traded away. As far as I'm concerned, none of those other pitchers on the list had game changing potential like DLS.

balke
01-07-2008, 07:31 PM
None of those guys are the caliber of the two we just gave up.

Out of all the starting pitching prospects we've had over the past decade, which ones have been hits? Buehrle and Garland. And we only drafted Buehrle. Such is baseball really. Our development and drafting has been below average but you can make a similar list for any team.

Gio Gonzalez isn't as good as Gio Gonzalez? Jeremy Reed isn't as good as Sweeney?

JB98
01-07-2008, 07:33 PM
I'd say it's a good thing. There are very few that actually have the talent to reach the big leagues. Come on, all those guys had the talent/we were going to find someone that did at every point in the draft? Other teams probably have similar lists...or in some cases, they kept all those guys and they amounted to nothing. The Sox sold high on those guys, so it's a good thing. Part of having a farm system is being able to trade parts of it to upgrade the big league club.

That said, I still miss Gio and DLS. :(:

How can you miss them? They were never here.

PaleHoseGeorge
01-07-2008, 07:40 PM
I can't decide whether this is a good or bad thing. Is it that we're selling high on overrated prospects or is that we just can't draft/develop minor league pitching? Probably a bit of both.

It means people who focus on prospects are mostly doing so for their own aggrandizement. "Watch me show you how much more I know about the Great Falls roster than you do..."

When it comes to building champions -- or even an everyday MLB roster -- fretting over prospects is mostly a futile waste of time. Kudos to Reifert for illustrating the point so neatly.

The operative word is fretting, an activity Sox Fans are well-known to indulge in.
:cool:

RockyMtnSoxFan
01-07-2008, 07:57 PM
I'd say it's a good thing. There are very few that actually have the talent to reach the big leagues. Come on, all those guys had the talent/we were going to find someone that did at every point in the draft? Other teams probably have similar lists...or in some cases, they kept all those guys and they amounted to nothing. The Sox sold high on those guys, so it's a good thing. Part of having a farm system is being able to trade parts of it to upgrade the big league club.

That said, I still miss Gio and DLS. :(:

It's certainly true that other teams have lists of prospects who turned out to be busts. But most other teams also have lists of prospects who turned out to be difference makers. The Twinkies had both Santana and Liriano (for at least part of a season). The Tiggers have Verlander. The Red Sox have Papelbon, Lester, and Hensley. Even the Yankees have Chamberlain and Hughes (though he's still in the prospect category).

My point is: the Sox have had less success than many or most other teams when it comes to developing pitching talent. That needs to change or we won't be able to rise above mediocrity for extended periods of time.

TommyJohn
01-07-2008, 07:59 PM
How could they deal Delvis Lantigua?

I would have kept him around for that name alone. Delvis Lantigua.
Delvis Lantigua. Deeeeeeeellllllllvis Lantiguuuuuuuuuaaaaaaaaa!!!!!

ilsox7
01-07-2008, 08:03 PM
The Twinkies had both Santana and Liriano (for at least part of a season).

Except neither came up through the Twins' system.

chaerulez
01-07-2008, 08:16 PM
Joe Valentine was pretty highly rated at one point, whatever happened to him?

DSpivack
01-07-2008, 08:31 PM
How could they deal Delvis Lantigua?

I would have kept him around for that name alone. Delvis Lantigua.
Delvis Lantigua. Deeeeeeeellllllllvis Lantiguuuuuuuuuaaaaaaaaa!!!!!

Derek Hasselhoff is clearly the best name on that list. Germans love him.

thedudeabides
01-07-2008, 08:35 PM
I can't decide whether this is a good or bad thing. Is it that we're selling high on overrated prospects or is that we just can't draft/develop minor league pitching? Probably a bit of both.

It probably is both. It is a bit troubling they have such a hard time developing pitchers, but I think Kenny has done a good job recognizing this and hyping his prospects well.

johnny_mostil
01-07-2008, 08:39 PM
That list is meaningless. We've never had a player as talented as DLS in our system, let alone traded away. As far as I'm concerned, none of those other pitchers on the list had game changing potential like DLS.

You're kidding, right? A 21-year old Dominican who has now thrown roughly 1400 pitches in his US professional baseball career, absolutely none in AAA or AA and about three games worth in "Advanced A ball" is still a long shot to succeed in professional baseball. I don't care if he struck out every single batter on three 110mph pitches -- he has no track record to show that his arm can tolerate the stress.

I mean, get serious, folks. A year ago nobody had ever heard of DLS because he hadn't pitched anywhere but the Dominican Summer League.
Now he's a lock to be Juan Marichal?

sox1970
01-07-2008, 08:48 PM
You're kidding, right? A 21-year old Dominican who has now thrown roughly 1400 pitches in his US professional baseball career, absolutely none in AAA or AA and about three games worth in "Advanced A ball" is still a long shot to succeed in professional baseball. I don't care if he struck out every single batter on three 110mph pitches -- he has no track record to show that his arm can tolerate the stress.

I mean, get serious, folks. A year ago nobody had ever heard of DLS because he hadn't pitched anywhere but the Dominican Summer League.
Now he's a lock to be Juan Marichal?

No kidding! To be honest, I know De Los Santos and Gio probably both have more upside than Jack Egbert, but I'd be more worried if they included Egbert in this deal. At least he's pitched 3 years of college and 500+ minor league innings--with results. De Los Santos had one decent inning on TV and everyone wants to make him out to be Pedro Martinez. He's got a better chance at being another Felix Diaz as far as I can tell.

veeter
01-07-2008, 08:49 PM
Chances are Beane will use these guys in trades of his own. They're running out of actual major league players over there.

TommyJohn
01-07-2008, 09:03 PM
Derek Hasselhoff is clearly the best name on that list. Germans love him.

OK, that's a great name, too. But I'm sticking with Delvis Lantigua. Or we
could mix 'em up and have Derek Lantigua and Delvis Hasselhoff.

Tragg
01-07-2008, 09:15 PM
What about the inverse: what have we received from trading all of those pitchers?
We were a fifth starter away from at least 1 playoff berth - we didn't trade much, but we traded a few 5th starters.

Jjav829
01-07-2008, 09:31 PM
You're kidding, right? A 21-year old Dominican who has now thrown roughly 1400 pitches in his US professional baseball career, absolutely none in AAA or AA and about three games worth in "Advanced A ball" is still a long shot to succeed in professional baseball. I don't care if he struck out every single batter on three 110mph pitches -- he has no track record to show that his arm can tolerate the stress.

I mean, get serious, folks. A year ago nobody had ever heard of DLS because he hadn't pitched anywhere but the Dominican Summer League.
Now he's a lock to be Juan Marichal?

I'm gonna use your post to ask a question I've had since the trade happened. I don't know a lot about DLS. But...if he is as good as some people here think he is (the ridiculous comparisons to Pedro Martinez, etc.), why the hell wasn't this guy signed years ago? What took so long for someone to sign him?

munchman33
01-07-2008, 10:39 PM
You're kidding, right? A 21-year old Dominican who has now thrown roughly 1400 pitches in his US professional baseball career, absolutely none in AAA or AA and about three games worth in "Advanced A ball" is still a long shot to succeed in professional baseball. I don't care if he struck out every single batter on three 110mph pitches -- he has no track record to show that his arm can tolerate the stress.

I mean, get serious, folks. A year ago nobody had ever heard of DLS because he hadn't pitched anywhere but the Dominican Summer League.
Now he's a lock to be Juan Marichal?

Did you even bother to read my post? I said he was the most talented prospect of that bunch, way more talented than the others. Not that he was closer to the show than those guys.

Talentwise, I don't see how you can deny what DLS brings to the table. Because we've never had anyone else bring all those things. That it's anything but a completely special package is complete drivel fitting for those who only takes their lips off Kenny Williams' ass in order to post ra-ra nonsense on this board.

FarWestChicago
01-07-2008, 10:44 PM
That it's anything but a completely special package is complete drivel fitting for those who only takes their lips off Kenny Williams' ass in order to post ra-ra nonsense on this board.You better hope your boy turns into a perennial all star or you will be appropriately laughed off this board. It will be like Dawg and Jeremy Reed. :cool:

oeo
01-07-2008, 10:51 PM
How can you miss them? They were never here.

They were within the White Sox organization, were they not? :rolleyes:

I was excited to see those two guys pitch for the Sox someday...now I can't. Not that I don't like Swisher, I do...but I still think those guys are going to be something special.

JB98
01-07-2008, 10:51 PM
Did you even bother to read my post? I said he was the most talented prospect of that bunch, way more talented than the others. Not that he was closer to the show than those guys.

Talentwise, I don't see how you can deny what DLS brings to the table. Because we've never had anyone else bring all those things. That it's anything but a completely special package is complete drivel fitting for those who only takes their lips off Kenny Williams' ass in order to post ra-ra nonsense on this board.

Personally, I have never seen DLS pitch. I could never tout someone like this without having seen them throw.

Lip Man 1
01-07-2008, 10:59 PM
I look at this simply in a law of averages context.

As the story in Baseball America a few years ago pointed out only 1 PER CENT of all minor league players ever make it to the big leagues let alone make an impact in them.

Those are looooonnnnnggggg odds at best.

If I can trade a 'maybe' or two 'maybe's' or three 'maybe's' for someone who has a track record of success playing the game at the highest level in the world, I'll do it every time.

Granted sooner or later a prospect traded is going to wind up haunting you ( aka Chris Young for example) but again the odds are in my favor that he won't. I have no issues trading 'potential' for proven commodities. (For you see I remember such 'can't miss' pitchers as Scott Ruffcorn, Rodney Bolton and from way back when Cisco Carlos.)

Lip

JB98
01-07-2008, 11:01 PM
They were within the White Sox organization, were they not? :rolleyes:

I was excited to see those two guys pitch for the Sox someday...now I can't. Not that I don't like Swisher, I do...but I still think those guys are going to be something special.

If they don't pitch for the White Sox, then they aren't here as far as I'm concerned.

I can't say I've ever been excited about a prospect in my life.

oeo
01-07-2008, 11:04 PM
If they don't pitch for the White Sox, then they aren't here as far as I'm concerned.

I can't say I've ever been excited about a prospect in my life.

Sorry, JB98, next time I'll PM you my message first in order to make sure it's to your liking.

JB98
01-07-2008, 11:26 PM
Sorry, JB98, next time I'll PM you my message first in order to make sure it's to your liking.

That won't be necessary. I don't need such tripe in my PM box. :rolleyes:

itsnotrequired
01-07-2008, 11:27 PM
fight, fight, fight!

DrCrawdad
01-07-2008, 11:32 PM
No kidding! To be honest, I know De Los Santos and Gio probably both have more upside than Jack Egbert, but I'd be more worried if they included Egbert in this deal. At least he's pitched 3 years of college and 500+ minor league innings--with results. De Los Santos had one decent inning on TV and everyone wants to make him out to be Pedro Martinez. He's got a better chance at being another Felix Diaz as far as I can tell.

Ah, Felix Diaz, just another prospect that I thought was going to be good (http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=372908&highlight=felix+diaz#post372908)...

doublem23
01-07-2008, 11:38 PM
Ah, Felix Diaz, just another prospect that I thought was going to be good (http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=372908&highlight=felix+diaz#post372908)...

For the record, I think Felix Diaz spot-started for us once against the Cubs and pitched pretty well (he may have even won that game), so it's not like he did nothing for us.

Although, that may have been for my White Sox dynasty in PS2. Sometimes, I confuse the two. :redface:

DrCrawdad
01-07-2008, 11:39 PM
Gary Majewski
Josh Fogg
Matt Guerrier
Frankie Francisco
Javier Lopez


I may have missed a few, but this seems like the only ones in that list who've contributed to a ML team.

I remember regretting trading away so many of these guys at the times of the trades. No wonder I'm not a ML talent evaluator.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 12:04 AM
You better hope your boy turns into a perennial all star or you will be appropriately laughed off this board. It will be like Dawg and Jeremy Reed. :cool:

The only thing that could possibly stop him is injury. And it's not like he's injury prone or anything like that. He's about as can't miss as they come.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 12:05 AM
Personally, I have never seen DLS pitch. I could never tout someone like this without having seen them throw.

I've seen him.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 12:08 AM
I look at this simply in a law of averages context.

As the story in Baseball America a few years ago pointed out only 1 PER CENT of all minor league players ever make it to the big leagues let alone make an impact in them.

Those are looooonnnnnggggg odds at best.

If I can trade a 'maybe' or two 'maybe's' or three 'maybe's' for someone who has a track record of success playing the game at the highest level in the world, I'll do it every time.

Granted sooner or later a prospect traded is going to wind up haunting you ( aka Chris Young for example) but again the odds are in my favor that he won't. I have no issues trading 'potential' for proven commodities. (For you see I remember such 'can't miss' pitchers as Scott Ruffcorn, Rodney Bolton and from way back when Cisco Carlos.)

Lip

Oh come on Lip, some prospects obviously have better odds to produce than others. If that weren't the case, we wouldn't have a draft for prospects, we'd simply let them chose which system they'd like to join.

doublem23
01-08-2008, 12:12 AM
The only thing that could possibly stop him is injury. And it's not like he's injury prone or anything like that. He's about as can't miss as they come.

For pitchers, that doesn't mean anything.

Mark Prior was can't miss, too.

Tragg
01-08-2008, 12:14 AM
The only thing that could possibly stop him is injury. And it's not like he's injury prone or anything like that. He's about as can't miss as they come.

I haven't seen him pitch, but I've read a lot of those who have. Trading 2 Gios for Swisher wouldn't bother me. But DLS had a really high ceiling. It would be nice to save our best prospect, like most teams do. Work some veterans into the deal, of which we have excess

btrain929
01-08-2008, 12:19 AM
Didn't he give up a home run in the one inning he pitched in the Future's Game? Yeah, like HE'LL be good....

But seriously, has anyone even thought about the idea that maybe this trade will work out for both teams? Swisher gives us 2-3 all star seasons and resigns with us long term, and 2 of the prospects we sent over there have some type of success in the bigs.

kaufsox
01-08-2008, 12:31 AM
I look at this simply in a law of averages context.

As the story in Baseball America a few years ago pointed out only 1 PER CENT of all minor league players ever make it to the big leagues let alone make an impact in them.

Those are looooonnnnnggggg odds at best.

If I can trade a 'maybe' or two 'maybe's' or three 'maybe's' for someone who has a track record of success playing the game at the highest level in the world, I'll do it every time.

Granted sooner or later a prospect traded is going to wind up haunting you ( aka Chris Young for example) but again the odds are in my favor that he won't. I have no issues trading 'potential' for proven commodities. (For you see I remember such 'can't miss' pitchers as Scott Ruffcorn, Rodney Bolton and from way back when Cisco Carlos.)

Lip

Lip, you always post what I'm thinking:wink: All of the carping over this trade seems silly. As you mention, the odds of all three of these guys making it to the majors are pretty long, that even one of them becomes a superstar, longer still. Even so, if one of them, or even two become solid major leaguers, well that is the price of doing business. It always amazes me on this, and other sports boards, how fans expect their team to acquire all of the players they need, yet give up nothing in return. Sure, we can all point to the occasional unbalanced trade, but those are the exceptions, not the rule.

HITMEN OF 77
01-08-2008, 12:33 AM
Fogg was the best guy on that list IMO.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 12:45 AM
Lip, you always post what I'm thinking:wink: All of the carping over this trade seems silly. As you mention, the odds of all three of these guys making it to the majors are pretty long, that even one of them becomes a superstar, longer still. Even so, if one of them, or even two become solid major leaguers, well that is the price of doing business. It always amazes me on this, and other sports boards, how fans expect their team to acquire all of the players they need, yet give up nothing in return. Sure, we can all point to the occasional unbalanced trade, but those are the exceptions, not the rule.

I dare you to find me just one paid baseball scout who thinks DLS is a longshot at being a superstar. Because you won't. I certainly haven't read any report stating that. The only things I've ever read in reports on him include things like 3 "plus" major league pitches, extremely good control, and throws harder as game goes on. The only negative report on his future sucess I've ever read claimed that he had "a better than average chance at stardom." And I'm pretty sure that based on the rest of the report that was only poor word choice.

I'm sure the majority of posters here will agree with your logic. But remember, the majority of posters here don't get paid to do this, and have very likely never seen DLS pitch.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 12:47 AM
For pitchers, that doesn't mean anything.

Mark Prior was can't miss, too.

And he wouldn't have if the Cubs didn't blow out his arm. They have nobody to blame but themselves.

JNS
01-08-2008, 12:48 AM
I look at this simply in a law of averages context.

As the story in Baseball America a few years ago pointed out only 1 PER CENT of all minor league players ever make it to the big leagues let alone make an impact in them.

Those are looooonnnnnggggg odds at best.

If I can trade a 'maybe' or two 'maybe's' or three 'maybe's' for someone who has a track record of success playing the game at the highest level in the world, I'll do it every time.

Granted sooner or later a prospect traded is going to wind up haunting you ( aka Chris Young for example) but again the odds are in my favor that he won't. I have no issues trading 'potential' for proven commodities. (For you see I remember such 'can't miss' pitchers as Scott Ruffcorn, Rodney Bolton and from way back when Cisco Carlos.)

Lip

All this poses more questions than it answers.

What did we get for these guys?

Were most of them integral parts of deals, throw-ins, or PTBNL?

How many were involved in any deal that impacted the big club in any way?

With the exception of Fogg and a couple of others, none of these guys amounted to anything. And you are right - the odds dictate that very few of them will. But that said, does this indicate a dearth of pitching in the system over the past seven years - leaving only these bushers to throw in as minor parts of what were (for the most part) inconsequential deals? I don't remember too many of the deals these guys were part of, which indicates that they were not important deals (or were very minor parts of important deals) in the greater scheme of Sox player personnel activity.

Without any real context, this list tells us very little, other than what I just stated - that minor league pitchers in the Sox system were not important factors in the trades KW has done during his tenure. Certainly nnot in the many big trades he's made.

Ironically, the guy who most here feel was the best of the lot - Fogg - was part of the infamous Todd Ritchie deal. Or did we give him up for Marte (in which case it wasn't a bad deal for the Sox at all)?

Hey - I'm old enough to remember Edward Nottle!

doublem23
01-08-2008, 12:56 AM
Ironically, the guy who most here feel was the best of the lot - Fogg - was part of the infamous Todd Ritchie deal. Or did we give him up for Marte (in which case it wasn't a bad deal for the Sox at all)?


He was part of the Ritchie deal. Marte was traded to the Sox for Matt Guerrier.

doublem23
01-08-2008, 12:58 AM
And he wouldn't have if the Cubs didn't blow out his arm. They have nobody to blame but themselves.

If I had your magic crystal ball that predicts the future 100% accurately at all times, I would give it to KW so he can make the best moves for the team, rather than hoard it and use it to criticize him. That's just me, though. OK, maybe I wouldn't give it away, but I'd let him call me before he trades another one of those can't miss arms we've been dealing the last few years.

Oh wait, all of this is pure speculation. :kukoo:

PalehosePlanet
01-08-2008, 01:16 AM
Scott Reifert in his blog at White Sox.com put together a list of every single minor league pitcher traded by Kenny Williams since he took over as G.M.

This list is NOT impressive. I've posted Scott's list and his comments about minor league pitchers (or you can call it the 'trading away the future' if you wish...) for your discussion.

Again this entire subject thread are Scott's comments!

"Lists

Here is a list of minor-league pitchers traded by the White Sox since October 2000 (let me know if we missed any):

2000
Mark Roberts
Brian Schmack
Aaron Myette

2001
Gary Majewski
Mike Williams
Orlando Rodriguez
Andre Simpson
Matt Dewitt
Derek Hasselhoff
Daniel Mozingo
Josh Fogg

2002
Matt Guerrier
Joe Valentine

2003
Eddi Candelario
Jason Aspito
Delvis Lantigua
Edwin Almonte
Royce Ring
Frankie Francisco
Josh Rupe
Tim Bittner
Scott Dunn
Jake Meyer

2005
Ryan Meaux
Daniel Haigwood
Gio Gonzalez

2006
Jeff Bajenaru
Javier Lopez
B.J. LaMura
Daniel Cortes
Tyler Lumsden

2007
Dwayne Pollock

2008
Gio Gonzalez
Fautino De Los Santos

I guess my point is this. I don't think many White Sox fans have lost sleep over trading the pitchers on this list. Off the top of my head, I remember gnashing of teeth when we traded Myette, Fogg, Guerrier, Valentine, Meyer and Lumsden. Josh Fogg has been the most successful ex-Sox minor-league pitcher, but even Josh has moved on from Pittsburgh to Colorado since originally being dealt.

Fans and critics are concerned about trading away prospects. From what I have experienced, reality seems to consistently fall short of promise when it comes to actualizing potential.

The best Sox minor-league-pitcher-to-successful-big-league-pitcher in my time here is Mark Buehrle. And it's safe to say he was "below the radar" for almost all of his career."

Lip

Omitted from this list is Jon Rauch who was traded to the Expos w/Majewski for Carl Everett (version 2) back in '04. Rauch was actually a top 5 overall Baseball America prospect in 2002 (or '03?) and has turned into a solid setup man for the Nats. Still a far cry for what was expected of him.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 01:19 AM
If I had your magic crystal ball that predicts the future 100% accurately at all times, I would give it to KW so he can make the best moves for the team, rather than hoard it and use it to criticize him. That's just me, though. OK, maybe I wouldn't give it away, but I'd let him call me before he trades another one of those can't miss arms we've been dealing the last few years.

Oh wait, all of this is pure speculation. :kukoo:

Have you seen DLS pitch? Or any of the other prospects listed?

No offense, but that you would compare DLS to ANYONE on that list shows that you really don't know what you're talking about. He's a different league of prospect.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 01:20 AM
Omitted from this list is Jon Rauch who was traded to the Expos w/Majewski for Carl Everett (version 2) back in '04. Rauch was actually a top 5 overall Baseball America prospect in 2002 (or '03?) and has turned into a solid setup man for the Nats. Still a far cry for what was expected of him.

Didn't Rauch have Tommy John surgery in between?

FedEx227
01-08-2008, 01:24 AM
I didn't follow Sox prospects that much in the late 90's/early 2000's. Were any of the pitchers above as highly regarded as Gio/DLS or put up similar stats as them?

Fogg was pretty highly regarded and I remember a lot of people and experts really thinking the Sox got screwed when they traded Royce Ring who was suppose to be a top-notch reliever.

PalehosePlanet
01-08-2008, 01:34 AM
Fogg was pretty highly regarded and I remember a lot of people and experts really thinking the Sox got screwed when they traded Royce Ring who was suppose to be a top-notch reliever.

Ring was a terrible pick; I'd never draft a college RP in the first round unless he threw a 100 mph.

Fogg was outstanding his first 2 months and has been well below average since.

PalehosePlanet
01-08-2008, 01:37 AM
Didn't Rauch have Tommy John surgery in between?

Yes he did; I believe he missed all, or most of '03.

doublem23
01-08-2008, 01:43 AM
Have you seen DLS pitch? Or any of the other prospects listed?

No offense, but that you would compare DLS to ANYONE on that list shows that you really don't know what you're talking about. He's a different league of prospect.

No I haven't, and no I don't know much about the guy, the first time I heard his name was sometime this year. Please find my post where I specifically state he will fail because of my profound analysis of the guy.

Oh that's right, that post would be non-existent.

My point is merely that the vast majority of any pitching prospects - no matter how good, highly touted, etc. fall flat on their face. If you want to believe otherwise about DLS, be my ****ing guest. Logic, statistics, and common sense all state otherwise. Also, the original post in this thread backs up the fact that KW and the Sox have been pretty good at judging their own talent and trading away pitchers who had a lot of trade value, but little talent. Maybe DLS will be the one that comes back to bite us in the ass, but you can't argue with the guy's track record. You're also welcome to revise history as you see fit, but there are a number of names in that list who were at one time or another, bona fide star pitchers in the making, too. Don't get mad at the rest of us for not fawning over another "can't-miss" kid because we're not interested in how well or poorly the Birmingham Barons do this year.

KW turned unproven MiLB commodities into a young, dynamic, and MLB-proven talent. Great trade.

Frater Perdurabo
01-08-2008, 07:07 AM
JB, I was excited about Frank Thomas when he was still a prospect. And Robin Ventura. And Jack McDowell. And Alex Fernandez.

Can we get Larry Himes to come back and start running our draft? :(:

santo=dorf
01-08-2008, 09:39 AM
Omitted from this list is Jon Rauch who was traded to the Expos w/Majewski for Carl Everett (version 2) back in '04. Rauch was actually a top 5 overall Baseball America prospect in 2002 (or '03?) and has turned into a solid setup man for the Nats. Still a far cry for what was expected of him.
He was on the major league roster at the time or he was traded not too much longer after he supposedly left early on a Saturday day game.

balke
01-08-2008, 10:37 AM
Jon Rauch had people all over whispering Randy Johnson 2. He doesn't have the curveball Gio has though. I think Gio will be solid as a starter in the majors, I don't know about stud or not. But I also think Swisher will be solid, and most likely a stud.

DLS sounds way overhyped to me by the people screaming his name. I think the only "regret" will be Gio, who the Sox probably got equal or better return on.

Lip Man 1
01-08-2008, 10:39 AM
Frater:

In fairness it should be noted that for the Sox to get those four incredible kids they had to play really, really bad baseball for most of the back half of the 80's.

Do you want to go through that again?

Lip

rdivaldi
01-08-2008, 11:08 AM
De Los Santos had one decent inning on TV and everyone wants to make him out to be Pedro Martinez. He's got a better chance at being another Felix Diaz as far as I can tell.

Posts like this are just aggravating. Some of us have seen this kid pitch quite a bit and there's a reason why we're calling him the real deal. I understand that there's an automatic desire to try and discount every player we trade in order to feel better about what we receive, but DLS is light years beyond some of the stiffs that have been hyped over the past few years. His fastball is electric with wicked movement and his slider is outstanding.

He will probably never be another Pedro Martinez, but guys like that only come around once in a generation.

sox1970
01-08-2008, 11:15 AM
Posts like this are just aggravating. Some of us have seen this kid pitch quite a bit and there's a reason why we're calling him the real deal. I understand that there's an automatic desire to try and discount every player we trade in order to feel better about what we receive, but DLS is light years beyond some of the stiffs that have been hyped over the past few years. His fastball is electric with wicked movement and his slider is outstanding.

He will probably never be another Pedro Martinez, but guys like that only come around once in a generation.

Fair enough. Time will tell. Hopefully the Sox win a World Series with Swisher, and the A's pitchers go on to HOF careers. Win/Win.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 11:38 AM
Frater:

In fairness it should be noted that for the Sox to get those four incredible kids they had to play really, really bad baseball for most of the back half of the 80's.

Do you want to go through that again?

Lip

With the way we trade away all our young pitching talent, I wouldn't be surprised to see us with top ten picks the next 5 or so years. The window on our nucleus closed. We're adding talent to a team that won't compete.

I hope I'm wrong.

Lip Man 1
01-08-2008, 02:16 PM
Munch:

You mean the young pitching talent that has performed 'so well' for the Sox the past fifteen years?

How could I live without Scott Ruffcorn? or Arnie Munoz? or Jon Rauch?

Oh My!!!!!

Lip

munchman33
01-08-2008, 02:21 PM
Munch:

You mean the young pitching talent that has performed 'so well' for the Sox the past fifteen years?

How could I live without Scott Ruffcorn? or Arnie Munoz? or Jon Rauch?

Oh My!!!!!

Lip

The dynamics of baseball have changed drastically. We aren't developing or signing any pitchers. We get by trading arms for talent, but now the well is pretty dry, and the major league roster is old and full of holes, predominantly in the rotation.

Frater Perdurabo
01-08-2008, 02:52 PM
Frater:

In fairness it should be noted that for the Sox to get those four incredible kids they had to play really, really bad baseball for most of the back half of the 80's.

Do you want to go through that again?

Lip

I know that, and having lived through it, no, I do not want to replicate that era.

oeo
01-08-2008, 03:02 PM
That won't be necessary. I don't need such tripe in my PM box. :rolleyes:

Good. Next time you can keep your elitist opinion to yourself then. :dunno:

voodoochile
01-08-2008, 03:36 PM
I'd like to see percentage estimates from the people who feel trading DLS and Gio was a mistake.

What percentage likelihood do you assign to the following possibilities:

Makes a MLB 25-man roster:

Has a 5 year career:

Has a 10 year career:

Becomes an All-Star:

Wins 100+ games:

Is elected to the HOF:

Please rate both pitchers individually.

Chez
01-08-2008, 03:46 PM
Many of the posts in this thread crystalize my feelings on trading prospects. Sure it's fun to dream about how great our prospects can become in the future, but most of our young "can't miss" prospects have missed badly with either the Sox or the team that traded for them. Jon Rausch is currently a servicable set-up man, but was supposed to be Randy Johnson version 2.0. Joe Borchard was going to be the next Mickey Mantle. Ruffcorn, Bolton, Al "Toothpick" Jones, Lorenzo Barcelo, the list of can't miss prospects who missed for whatever reason is endless. So if you get proven major league value for them in a trade, do it.

kobo
01-08-2008, 04:15 PM
With the way we trade away all our young pitching talent, I wouldn't be surprised to see us with top ten picks the next 5 or so years. The window on our nucleus closed. We're adding talent to a team that won't compete.

I hope I'm wrong.
:chickenlittle

doublem23
01-08-2008, 04:42 PM
I'd like to see percentage estimates from the people who feel trading DLS and Gio was a mistake.

What percentage likelihood do you assign to the following possibilities:

Makes a MLB 25-man roster:

Has a 5 year career:

Has a 10 year career:

Becomes an All-Star:

Wins 100+ games:

Is elected to the HOF:

Please rate both pitchers individually.

I think DLS is going to invent cold fusion, a reliable and safe hydrogen-fueled vehicle, and put an end to all of mankind's suffering.

If Gio practices really hard, I think he could break 1,000,000 points on Guitar Hero.

voodoochile
01-08-2008, 04:47 PM
I think DLS is going to invent cold fusion, a reliable and safe hydrogen-fueled vehicle, and put an end to all of mankind's suffering.

If Gio practices really hard, I think he could break 1,000,000 points on Guitar Hero.

Who gives a **** about any of that trivial crap. I want to know if they will win 100 games for a major league team.

I do admit the 1M points on Guitar Hero would be almost as cool...

Flight #24
01-08-2008, 05:07 PM
I love it. Basically, because most prospects don't pan out and because the Sox have flopped in their farm in the past, it's OK to trade away any and all prospects as long as you get back a serviceable major league player in return! Hooray, let's ignore the dramatically increased value in prospects now (given salary inflation) and the stated fact that KW has "$.50" to spend which makes prospects even more valuable to a team like the Sox!

And while we're at it, let's ignore the quite possible scenario that the list posted mostly included bad players from a bad farm system, but that the Sox finally got a couple of good ones....only to trade them away!

IMO, the core questions that've been missed by most are:
- Does Swisher position the team to make the playoffs in 2008? The answer is no.
- Does Swisher add something that with the rest of the team's development makes the team more likely to make the playffs in 2009-10? Unlikely, because so many other players are at the stage where they're likely to decline.

The other HUGE question, and IMO the most important one is:
- Would you rather have Swisher and $5M/yr or Rowand, Gio, DLS, Sweeney? KW chose the former. He could have had a better defender in CF with less power/OBP but a better avg and also kept either his 2 most likely star prospects or his 2 best trading chips, depending on your POV.

That's why I'm down on the deal.

SoxNation05
01-08-2008, 05:17 PM
I love it. Basically, because most prospects don't pan out and because the Sox have flopped in their farm in the past, it's OK to trade away any and all prospects as long as you get back a serviceable major league player in return! Hooray, let's ignore the dramatically increased value in prospects now (given salary inflation) and the stated fact that KW has "$.50" to spend which makes prospects even more valuable to a team like the Sox!

And while we're at it, let's ignore the quite possible scenario that the list posted mostly included bad players from a bad farm system, but that the Sox finally got a couple of good ones....only to trade them away!

IMO, the core questions that've been missed by most are:
- Does Swisher position the team to make the playoffs in 2008? The answer is no.
- Does Swisher add something that with the rest of the team's development makes the team more likely to make the playffs in 2009-10? Unlikely, because so many other players are at the stage where they're likely to decline.

The other HUGE question, and IMO the most important one is:
- Would you rather have Swisher and $5M/yr or Rowand, Gio, DLS, Sweeney? KW chose the former. He could have had a better defender in CF with less power/OBP but a better avg and also kept either his 2 most likely star prospects or his 2 best trading chips, depending on your POV.

That's why I'm down on the deal.
You could also say how KW traded Garland for Cabrera. If we would have just signed Eckstein for 1year 7mil we would not be in a position to trade PK.

SS Eckstein
CF Swisher
DH Thome
1B Konerko
RF Dye
C Pierzynski
3B Fields
LF Quentin
2B Richar

Buerhle, Vazquez, Garland, Danks, Cuban
That beats the team we have now.

MCHSoxFan
01-08-2008, 05:28 PM
But seriously, has anyone even thought about the idea that maybe this trade will work out for both teams? Swisher gives us 2-3 all star seasons and resigns with us long term, and 2 of the prospects we sent over there have some type of success in the bigs.

That is EXACTLY what I told my grandmother when the trade was made...or a day or two afterward. A change in where they plan could actually make a BIG difference in how they perform. Honestly, out of the three, all I have seen play is Sweeney in 2006 & 2007. The info I know about DLS & Gio ALL come from here at WSI.

The Immigrant
01-08-2008, 05:30 PM
The other HUGE question, and IMO the most important one is:
- Would you rather have Swisher and $5M/yr or Rowand, Gio, DLS, Sweeney? KW chose the former. He could have had a better defender in CF with less power/OBP but a better avg and also kept either his 2 most likely star prospects or his 2 best trading chips, depending on your POV.

That's why I'm down on the deal.

The comparison is not that simple. Rowand is three years older than Swisher and is on the wrong side of 30, so the difference in value between their respective contracts goes beyond the $5 million/year figure you cite (which is itself deceiving because it assumes that Swisher's club option for 2012 is picked up regardless of his performance).

thomas35forever
01-08-2008, 05:45 PM
Given that list, I'm surprised teams haven't stopped sporting interest in White Sox pitching prospects. I'm not saying any of those pitchers still playing won't break out at any point in their careers. However, if all you're getting in return are pitchers who turn into average-at-best major leaguers, wouldn't you get a little suspicious when considering acquiring pitchers in the White Sox farm system?

munchman33
01-08-2008, 05:48 PM
I'd like to see percentage estimates from the people who feel trading DLS and Gio was a mistake.

What percentage likelihood do you assign to the following possibilities:

Makes a MLB 25-man roster:

Has a 5 year career:

Has a 10 year career:

Becomes an All-Star:

Wins 100+ games:

Is elected to the HOF:

Please rate both pitchers individually.

This seems rather arbitrary, but I'll bite.

Gio

Makes a MLB 25-man roster: 99 % (he'll very likely be in Oakland's rotation this year)

Has a 5 year career: 50 % (Oakland will give him every chance to succeed)

Has a 10 year career: 25 %

Becomes an All-Star: 5 %

Wins 100+ games: 10 %

Is elected to the HOF: 1 %

DLS

Makes a MLB 25-man roster: 50 %

Has a 5 year career: 50 %

Has a 10 year career: 50 %

Becomes an All-Star: 50 %

Wins 100+ games: 50 %

Is elected to the HOF: 50 %

My reasoning for that? He's going to be all of those things, without a doubt in my mind. The only thing that will stop him is a career ending injury. And that will either happen or it won't. 50 % chance. Because talent-wise, he's got one of if not the best arm that I've ever seen

santo=dorf
01-08-2008, 05:58 PM
This seems rather arbitrary, but I'll bite.

Gio

Makes a MLB 25-man roster: 99 % (he'll very likely be in Oakland's rotation this year)

Has a 5 year career: 50 % (Oakland will give him every chance to succeed)

Has a 10 year career: 25 %

Becomes an All-Star: 5 %

Wins 100+ games: 10 %

Is elected to the HOF: 1 %

DLS

Makes a MLB 25-man roster: 50 %

Has a 5 year career: 50 %

Has a 10 year career: 50 %

Becomes an All-Star: 50 %

Wins 100+ games: 50 %

Is elected to the HOF: 50 %

My reasoning for that? He's going to be all of those things, without a doubt in my mind. The only thing that will stop him is a career ending injury. And that will either happen or it won't. 50 % chance. Because talent-wise, he's got one of if not the best arm that I've ever seen
I think you've surpassed jeremy(reed)b1 with obsession over a minor leaguer.

How many times did you see DLS pitch? In person, on tape, both?
Why would the odds of him or any ballplayer becoming a Hall of Famer have the exact same odds of being an All-Star which can be a simple as being popular with the fans, or playing on a perennial loser team ala Carl Crawford?

itsnotrequired
01-08-2008, 06:43 PM
I think you've surpassed jeremy(reed)b1 with obsession over a minor leaguer.

How many times did you see DLS pitch? In person, on tape, both?
Why would the odds of him or any ballplayer becoming a Hall of Famer have the exact same odds of being an All-Star which can be a simple as being popular with the fans, or playing on a perennial loser team ala Carl Crawford?

No kidding. 50% chance of making the HoF without having pitched above high A ball? Good grief...

FarWestChicago
01-08-2008, 06:56 PM
I think you've surpassed jeremy(reed)b1 with obsession over a minor leaguer.That's good stuff, Dorf. :happyguy:

munchman33
01-08-2008, 07:03 PM
I think you've surpassed jeremy(reed)b1 with obsession over a minor leaguer.

How many times did you see DLS pitch? In person, on tape, both?
Why would the odds of him or any ballplayer becoming a Hall of Famer have the exact same odds of being an All-Star which can be a simple as being popular with the fans, or playing on a perennial loser team ala Carl Crawford?

Once in person, twice on tape.

My point was that, barring injury, he's 100% likely to do all of those things.

Pitchers don't get voted by the fans.

voodoochile
01-08-2008, 07:04 PM
I think you've surpassed jeremy(reed)b1 with obsession over a minor leaguer.

How many times did you see DLS pitch? In person, on tape, both?
Why would the odds of him or any ballplayer becoming a Hall of Famer have the exact same odds of being an All-Star which can be a simple as being popular with the fans, or playing on a perennial loser team ala Carl Crawford?

Actually, he said it was 100% sure that all of those things would happen barring a career ending injury. He placed the likelihood of a career ending injury at 50% (simple yes - no binary solution with even chances on both outcomes).

The cool thing is that the Sox just acquired an inexpensive All-star caliber player for two guys with a combined likelihood of 55% of ever becoming one.

Add in the fact that DLS won't get the chance to prove munch correct for at least 3 years and it still looks like a great trade, IMO.

I await replies from rdvialdi and others to say whether they feel munch is correct or if even they are amazed at his prediction.

I admit that I am surprised that anyone would make such a bold prediction for any A-ball pitcher.

santo=dorf
01-08-2008, 07:10 PM
Pitchers don't get voted by the fans.
Actually the first thing that popped into my head was Podsednik of 2005 with the final man ballot. Pitchers can make that list.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 07:20 PM
Actually the first thing that popped into my head was Podsednik of 2005 with the final man ballot. Pitchers can make that list.

Haha...fair enough.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 07:22 PM
Actually, he said it was 100% sure that all of those things would happen barring a career ending injury. He placed the likelihood of a career ending injury at 50% (simple yes - no binary solution with even chances on both outcomes).

The cool thing is that the Sox just acquired an inexpensive All-star caliber player for two guys with a combined likelihood of 55% of ever becoming one.

Add in the fact that DLS won't get the chance to prove munch correct for at least 3 years and it still looks like a great trade, IMO.

I await replies from rdvialdi and others to say whether they feel munch is correct or if even they are amazed at his prediction.

I admit that I am surprised that anyone would make such a bold prediction for any A-ball pitcher.

Just because Swisher is proven doesn't mean he isn't a candadite to have a terrible injury. Or even regression. I don't dislike him, but I certainly think that he's less of a bet for, say, a hall of fame career than DLS is.

itsnotrequired
01-08-2008, 08:03 PM
I don't dislike him, but I certainly think that he's less of a bet for, say, a hall of fame career than DLS is.

These statements are completely ridiculous at this point in either player's careers.

voodoochile
01-08-2008, 08:13 PM
Just because Swisher is proven doesn't mean he isn't a candadite to have a terrible injury. Or even regression. I don't dislike him, but I certainly think that he's less of a bet for, say, a hall of fame career than DLS is.

Well, Swisher has proven to be physically able to withstand the strain of playing baseball on levels well above A-ball.

As the competition goes up, so does the effort needed and thus the strain on muscles, tendons and other vital pieces of anatomy. Pitchers in particular are subject to bigger demands because their innings increase dramatically as they move up the ladder. No one knows if DLS's shoulder can handle the strain of throwing 200+ innings a year on a regular basis. It's why pitchers are even bigger risks to bet on than position players when it comes to predicting success. Hitters may or may not have the hand-eye coordination to succeed, but they are much less likely to suffer a career ending injury because their bodies simply don't suffer stress like pitchers do.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 08:20 PM
Well, Swisher has proven to be physically able to withstand the strain of playing baseball on levels well above A-ball.

As the competition goes up, so does the effort needed and thus the strain on muscles, tendons and other vital pieces of anatomy. Pitchers in particular are subject to bigger demands because their innings increase dramatically as they move up the ladder. No one knows if DLS's shoulder can handle the strain of throwing 200+ innings a year on a regular basis. It's why pitchers are even bigger risks to bet on than position players when it comes to predicting success. Hitters may or may not have the hand-eye coordination to succeed, but they are much less likely to suffer a career ending injury because their bodies simply don't suffer stress like pitchers do.

True enough. Though Swisher has not been without injury in his career. DLS has. And, most importantly, he throws just as hard late in games as he does early. He's got a very strong arm.

munchman33
01-08-2008, 08:22 PM
These statements are completely ridiculous at this point in either player's careers.


Why? Because you say so? Because you don't know enough about either player?

There's nothing wrong with making an educated guess if you've got a grasp about what you're talking about. Just because you can't, you shouldn't assume that nobody can. Plenty of people make assumptions about players' career paths on a daily basis. Some people get paid to do it. It isn't absurd at all.

itsnotrequired
01-08-2008, 08:32 PM
Why? Because you say so? Because you don't know enough about either player?

There's nothing wrong with making an educated guess if you've got a grasp about what you're talking about. Just because you can't, you shouldn't assume that nobody can. Plenty of people make assumptions about players' career paths on a daily basis. Some people get paid to do it. It isn't absurd at all.

I don't care who the player is or what numbers they throw up in A ball. People can identify talent and project career paths and all the good stuff but none of them would make statements like "he has a 50% chance to make the HoF".

PaleHoseGeorge
01-08-2008, 09:01 PM
Somebody be a friend to munch and be sure to stake him airfare home on his next trip to Vegas. With the sort of long odds this guy enjoys betting on, he doesn't figure to have anyway home but a long walk through the desert.

An A-ball pitcher with a 50/50 chance at the hall? Not even dadawg on his most delusional drug trips ever suggested as much for Jeremy Reed.

Wow...
:o:

santo=dorf
01-08-2008, 09:15 PM
Somebody be a friend to munch and be sure to stake him airfare home on his next trip to Vegas. With the sort of long odds this guy enjoys betting on, he doesn't figure to have anyway home but a long walk through the desert.

An A-ball pitcher with a 50/50 chance at the hall? Not even dadawg on his most delusional drug trips ever suggested as much for Jeremy Reed.

Wow...
:o:
He did bet $100 on the Sox before the 2005 season when they were 60-1.

Barring an injury to Brady, the Patriots will win the Super Bowl. How come they are 1-5 instead of 1-2? :nuts: (His injury is a coin flip like DLS')

*waits for Fenway to post a Bob Ryan article kissing up the Pats' backup QB*
:D:

PaleHoseGeorge
01-08-2008, 09:15 PM
I love it. Basically, because most prospects don't pan out and because the Sox have flopped in their farm in the past, it's OK to trade away any and all prospects as long as you get back a serviceable major league player in return! Hooray, let's ignore the dramatically increased value in prospects now (given salary inflation) and the stated fact that KW has "$.50" to spend which makes prospects even more valuable to a team like the Sox!

And while we're at it, let's ignore the quite possible scenario that the list posted mostly included bad players from a bad farm system, but that the Sox finally got a couple of good ones....only to trade them away!

IMO, the core questions that've been missed by most are:
- Does Swisher position the team to make the playoffs in 2008? The answer is no.
- Does Swisher add something that with the rest of the team's development makes the team more likely to make the playffs in 2009-10? Unlikely, because so many other players are at the stage where they're likely to decline.

The other HUGE question, and IMO the most important one is:
- Would you rather have Swisher and $5M/yr or Rowand, Gio, DLS, Sweeney? KW chose the former. He could have had a better defender in CF with less power/OBP but a better avg and also kept either his 2 most likely star prospects or his 2 best trading chips, depending on your POV.

That's why I'm down on the deal.

You could also say how KW traded Garland for Cabrera. If we would have just signed Eckstein for 1year 7mil we would not be in a position to trade PK.

SS Eckstein
CF Swisher
DH Thome
1B Konerko
RF Dye
C Pierzynski
3B Fields
LF Quentin
2B Richar

Buerhle, Vazquez, Garland, Danks, Cuban
That beats the team we have now.


Yeah, sure. And the only thing keeping me from building a Sox championship team is shopping the Jewel with a bigger wallet.

You think MAJOR LEAGUE talent grows on trees? You think it's there for the taking, just drop it in your cart and head to the checkout?

Insane...
:kukoo:

Jjav829
01-08-2008, 10:29 PM
Once in person, twice on tape.

My point was that, barring injury, he's 100% likely to do all of those things.

Pitchers don't get voted by the fans.

You've seen him pitch 3 times (3!), and you already have him in the HOF as long as he doesn't get hurt. Are you just messing with us?

rdivaldi
01-09-2008, 01:33 AM
I await replies from rdvialdi and others to say whether they feel munch is correct or if even they are amazed at his prediction.

I am a huge DLS fan, but I would never make a statement like that. The last Sox pitcher I thought was HOF caliber was Jon Rauch and we've all seen how that worked out.
:redface:

delben91
01-09-2008, 07:38 AM
I dare you to find me just one paid baseball scout who thinks DLS is a longshot at being a superstar.

How many of those scouts have guaranteed that he's a 100% sure fire hall of famer?

Frater Perdurabo
01-09-2008, 09:00 AM
No offense to anyone, but it is patently ridiculous to claim that any minor league pitcher has a 50/50 chance to make the Baseball Hall of Fame.



To be honest, though, before he had his first MLB at bat I did boast to my friends that Frank Thomas would make the Hall of Fame. But that was idle, eighth-grade boasting based on no more than reading his minor league stats on the back of his rookie card, reading a few Tribune articles in late 1989/early 1990, and my 13-year old Sox-fan testosterone desperate for a ray of hope after four abysmal seasons (86, 87, 88, 89). (I managed to "buy" one of his Topps rookie cards from a friend for the steep price of 50 cents and half a piece of pizza.)
:redface:

munchman33
01-09-2008, 09:34 AM
You've seen him pitch 3 times (3!), and you already have him in the HOF as long as he doesn't get hurt. Are you just messing with us?

:cool:

Someone has to take the extreme position. The notion that this was at all a "fair trade" because DLS is simply a prospect is grossly inaccurate. I do believe that he isn't like any other prospect that's been talked about. And if I could have any prospect in the game, it would probably be between him and Clay Bucholz.

No offense to Nick Swisher, but he isn't worth that kind of prospect. Those guys only go in deals for top tier superstars. Not guys who are decent with potential to be better. If high ceiling is the selling point on a guy, you might as well keep DLS. He should only go for guys at or very near that ceiling level.

voodoochile
01-09-2008, 10:40 AM
:cool:

Someone has to take the extreme position. The notion that this was at all a "fair trade" because DLS is simply a prospect is grossly inaccurate. I do believe that he isn't like any other prospect that's been talked about. And if I could have any prospect in the game, it would probably be between him and Clay Bucholz.

No offense to Nick Swisher, but he isn't worth that kind of prospect. Those guys only go in deals for top tier superstars. Not guys who are decent with potential to be better. If high ceiling is the selling point on a guy, you might as well keep DLS. He should only go for guys at or very near that ceiling level.

Actually, no one HAS to take the extreme position, some people just want to or feel they are justified doing so.

If DLS is as good as you claim, it will become self-evident when he blows through all the levels in the minors this year and makes the A's next year. If he can't do that, he's not as good as you say, IMO. The truly great ones spend very little time in the minors. However if he's merely headed for a very good career, it will be 2-3 years before he sniffs the bigs. At that point in time Swisher will have played 300-450 games for the Sox big league club.

You don't like it because your don't think the Sox can compete over that stretch of time. I think that's poor logic and feel the Sox will be very competitive with the moves they have made and at most might be one solid starting pitcher and one more bullpen move from competing for a pennant this year and every year until DLS gets his first call up. Swisher will be a major part of that because his defensiive flexibility allows the Sox to make decisions based on more factors and trade from a stronger bargaining position. In addition by the time DLS most likely makes the bigs, the Sox will have several more prospects they have drafted and developed moving up through the ranks who should only be a year or two away from helping the big league club and will still have Floyd, Danks and Buehrle under contract with several more chances to sign proven major league caliber pitchers on the FA market to boot.

You're stuck examining the trees - one tree in particular and there's a huge beautiful forest you are missing...

palehozenychicty
01-09-2008, 11:00 AM
Actually, no one HAS to take the extreme position, some people just want to or feel they are justified doing so.

If DLS is as good as you claim, it will become self-evident when he blows through all the levels in the minors this year and makes the A's next year. If he can't do that, he's not as good as you say, IMO. The truly great ones spend very little time in the minors. However if he's merely headed for a very good career, it will be 2-3 years before he sniffs the bigs. At that point in time Swisher will have played 300-450 games for the Sox big league club.

You don't like it because your don't think the Sox can compete over that stretch of time. I think that's poor logic and feel the Sox will be very competitive with the moves they have made and at most might be one solid starting pitcher and one more bullpen move from competing for a pennant this year and every year until DLS gets his first call up. Swisher will be a major part of that because his defensiive flexibility allows the Sox to make decisions based on more factors and trade from a stronger bargaining position. In addition by the time DLS most likely makes the bigs, the Sox will have several more prospects they have drafted and developed moving up through the ranks who should only be a year or two away from helping the big league club and will still have Floyd, Danks and Buehrle under contract with several more chances to sign proven major league caliber pitchers on the FA market to boot.

You're stuck examining the trees - one tree in particular and there's a huge beautiful forest you are missing...


The most important point that few people have brought up, is the fact that they have a high draft position this year. Assuming Buddy Bell scouts well and they're willing to take the best players, we can get a couple players with more upside than what we released this winter. Time will tell.

munchman33
01-09-2008, 11:01 AM
Actually, no one HAS to take the extreme position, some people just want to or feel they are justified doing so.

If DLS is as good as you claim, it will become self-evident when he blows through all the levels in the minors this year and makes the A's next year. If he can't do that, he's not as good as you say, IMO. The truly great ones spend very little time in the minors. However if he's merely headed for a very good career, it will be 2-3 years before he sniffs the bigs. At that point in time Swisher will have played 300-450 games for the Sox big league club.

You don't like it because your don't think the Sox can compete over that stretch of time. I think that's poor logic and feel the Sox will be very competitive with the moves they have made and at most might be one solid starting pitcher and one more bullpen move from competing for a pennant this year and every year until DLS gets his first call up. Swisher will be a major part of that because his defensiive flexibility allows the Sox to make decisions based on more factors and trade from a stronger bargaining position. In addition by the time DLS most likely makes the bigs, the Sox will have several more prospects they have drafted and developed moving up through the ranks who should only be a year or two away from helping the big league club and will still have Floyd, Danks and Buehrle under contract with several more chances to sign proven major league caliber pitchers on the FA market to boot.

You're stuck examining the trees - one tree in particular and there's a huge beautiful forest you are missing...


I think we disagree severely on the direction of the team. I believe anyone who assumes we'll be competing come August is using poor logic. We won 72 games last year for a reason. A lot went wrong, the bulk of which was a regression in the core of the team. The trend will very likely continue.

In my honest opinion, it would take a ton for us to play meaningful baseball in even August, and it's flat out unlikely to occur.

Trees? Gavin Floyd is a weed. And Danks hasn't shown me anything talent wise to suggest he'll ever be more than a #3 starter (and I don't think he's good enough to even be that yet).

You think we'll be signing talented free agent starting pitchers? Why do you assume that? This organization doesn't do that.

On DLS, most scouts believe DLS simply needs to finish his work on the changeup, a pitch he learned and is already using very effectively. His other three pitches are already major league ready. He really isn't that far away.

munchman33
01-09-2008, 11:12 AM
The most important point that few people have brought up, is the fact that they have a high draft position this year. Assuming Buddy Bell scouts well and they're willing to take the best players, we can get a couple players with more upside than what we released this winter. Time will tell.

Yeah, but do you realize when we pick next? We have no sandwich picks, and we lost our second round pick in the Linebrink signing.

voodoochile
01-09-2008, 11:30 AM
I think we disagree severely on the direction of the team. I believe anyone who assumes we'll be competing come August is using poor logic. We won 72 games last year for a reason. A lot went wrong, the bulk of which was a regression in the core of the team. The trend will very likely continue.

In my honest opinion, it would take a ton for us to play meaningful baseball in even August, and it's flat out unlikely to occur.

Trees? Gavin Floyd is a weed. And Danks hasn't shown me anything talent wise to suggest he'll ever be more than a #3 starter (and I don't think he's good enough to even be that yet).

You think we'll be signing talented free agent starting pitchers? Why do you assume that? This organization doesn't do that.

On DLS, most scouts believe DLS simply needs to finish his work on the changeup, a pitch he learned and is already using very effectively. His other three pitches are already major league ready. He really isn't that far away.

I think it's silly to call a single down season a trend especially with the progress and bounce backs several of the players showed at the end of the year.

Sargeant79
01-09-2008, 11:39 AM
I think it's silly to call a single down season a trend especially with the progress and bounce backs several of the players showed at the end of the year.

I agree with Voodoo on this one. The problems that we had on offense last year were not a result of regression to the norm. It was actually regression to some uncharacteristically bad numbers for several players. Crede getting hurt, Thome missing a month, and relying on the oft-injured Scott Podsednik/Darin Erstad OF combo didn't help either, plus the terrible bullpen.

For just about all of the year, almost everything that could go wrong did. I'm not saying that we're going to win 95 games and be a lock for the playoffs, but to say there is no chance is preposterous. Several things have to work out favorably for us to be in the mix, but I think there it is certainly possible it may happen. Acquiring Swisher certainly helped improve those chances.

munchman33
01-09-2008, 12:04 PM
I think it's silly to call a single down season a trend especially with the progress and bounce backs several of the players showed at the end of the year.

82 wins is a down season for teams that compete. 72 wins is something else entirely.

The end of our season was garbage time. I wouldn't try to take anything out of it.

jabrch
01-09-2008, 12:16 PM
I think it's silly to call a single down season a trend especially with the progress and bounce backs several of the players showed at the end of the year.

You mean some people are overreacting? Seriously? At WSI?

Jurr
01-09-2008, 12:39 PM
I think it's silly to call a single down season a trend especially with the progress and bounce backs several of the players showed at the end of the year.
Hell, the '04 team looked dead to rights going into the season. Danny Wright and Scott Schoeneweis were STARTERS!!!! If Maggs and Frank don't go down to injuries, the Sox had a chance to sneak into a playoff spot.

You just never know how teams are going to respond. If you told me that Colorado was going to win the NL pennant last year, I'd laugh. Most would. A lot can be said of the contagion that is success. It's no surprise that teams at the top of the standings usually have a bunch of guys with career years. This game is by far the most mental of sports, and teams with confidence can go a long way towards realizing and maximizing their collective potential.

Sargeant79
01-09-2008, 12:42 PM
If you told me that Colorado was going to win the NL pennant last year, I'd laugh.

If you told me on September 1st that Colorado was going to win the NL pennant last year, I would have laughed.

downstairs
01-09-2008, 02:18 PM
For a high-budget time like the Sox, I never ever mind trading prospects. You can always shore up mistakes via trade and free agents- generally grabbing PROVEN guys.

I'm not 100% impressed with our moves this offseason, but I don't know how bad we really are anyway. Maybe last year was just a bad year. As well, we HAVE indeed turned a lot of the team upside-down... so who's to say if we won't just "click" like we did in 2005.

rdivaldi
01-09-2008, 10:37 PM
Assuming Buddy Bell scouts well

Sorry to nitpick, but just so everyone gets this straight, Buddy Bell is our minor league director, not our scouting director. It's up to (gulp) Doug Laumann to get it right.