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twinsuck1
01-03-2008, 05:49 PM
Ed Farmer made mention on the Score today after the trade news broke that he believes Kenny Is Interested In Baltimores Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts.... What do you think we would have to give up to get this package?

SoxNation05
01-03-2008, 05:53 PM
Ed Farmer made mention on the Score today after the trade news broke that he believes Kenny Is Interested In Baltimores Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts.... What do you think we would have to give up to get this package?
Baltimore wants ready MLB players. I am not sure weather they would want Konerko but a three-way deal work out. I would guess Konerko, Danks, Broadway, Uribe and more would be gone.

SoxxoS
01-03-2008, 05:53 PM
I seriously dont know - But if Q has a good spring...I can see it being

Konerko
Uribe/Crede
Russell
Egbert

Or something like that. You know Crede and Uribe are moving somewhere. I have no idea if they want Konerko, but the Sox dont have many great tradable pieces. If they want prospects, we got NONE (except Egbert, who I really like).

SoxNation05
01-03-2008, 05:56 PM
I seriously dont know - But if Q has a good spring...I can see it being

Konerko
Uribe/Crede
Russell
Egbert

Or something like that. You know Crede and Uribe are moving somewhere. I have no idea if they want Konerko, but the Sox dont have many great tradable pieces. If they want prospects, we got NONE (except Egbert, who I really like).
What does Q have to do with it?

Foulke You
01-03-2008, 05:59 PM
I'd love Bedard. He is a stud and would really make me feel much better about our rotation. (Buehrle, Bedard, Vazquez, Contreras, Danks...nice!) It depends on what we'd give up though.

However, I think the Sox should steer clear of the PR disaster of Brian Roberts. As much as I love what Roberts brings to the table on offense, the steroid cloud that he'd bring with him is what concerns me. We have a good mix of "clubhouse guys" right now. I'd hate for the distraction that Roberts would bring to mess it up.

dickallen15
01-03-2008, 06:03 PM
Ed Farmer made mention on the Score today after the trade news broke that he believes Kenny Is Interested In Baltimores Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts.... What do you think we would have to give up to get this package?
I'm pretty sure most GMs are interested in those 2. I would think Baltimore would want quality prospects. Looks like another area KW won't be able to spend $1 when he only has $.50. BTW, there is no way Konerko goes to Baltimore.

SoxNation05
01-03-2008, 06:04 PM
I'd love Bedard. He is a stud and would really make me feel much better about our rotation. (Buehrle, Bedard, Vazquez, Contreras, Danks...nice!) It depends on what we'd give up though.

However, I think the Sox should steer clear of the PR disaster of Brian Roberts. As much as I love what Roberts brings to the table on offense, the steroid cloud that he'd bring with him is what concerns me. We have a good mix of "clubhouse guys" right now. I'd hate for the distraction that Roberts would bring to mess it up.
That just reminded me. The White Sox have said they will not aquire any players who have been mentioned to or have done steroids. So this rules out Roberts. So a trade will only include Bedard. Konerko, Danks, Broadway and Uribe.

dickallen15
01-03-2008, 06:06 PM
That just reminded me. The White Sox have said they will not aquire any players who have been mentioned to or have done steroids. So this rules out Roberts. So a trade will only include Bedard. Konerko, Danks, Broadway and Uribe.
No they haven't. They signed Montero last year.

Optipessimism
01-03-2008, 06:16 PM
I'd love Bedard. He is a stud and would really make me feel much better about our rotation. (Buehrle, Bedard, Vazquez, Contreras, Danks...nice!) It depends on what we'd give up though.

However, I think the Sox should steer clear of the PR disaster of Brian Roberts. As much as I love what Roberts brings to the table on offense, the steroid cloud that he'd bring with him is what concerns me. We have a good mix of "clubhouse guys" right now. I'd hate for the distraction that Roberts would bring to mess it up.

Not to sound Flubsessed, but I am certain that if the Sox land Roberts then he is a cheater and a liar, and it would mean that Sox fans have no right to ***** about Sosa. Yet if the Cubs land him all of the sudden he only "tried" roids once and it was because of peer pressure in the evil Baltimore dugout.

HarryChappas
01-03-2008, 06:16 PM
Get Bedard-this will make the off season-swisher is better than paulie anyway-Who cares about Roberts history? get over it! its not like he is bonds or something

Konerko, Crede, Danks, Floyd an uribe for Bedard and Roberts

soxfan1983
01-03-2008, 06:18 PM
Why would Konerko be traded? He's the heart and soul and face of the organization now

HarryChappas
01-03-2008, 06:20 PM
Why would Konerko be traded? He's the heart and soul and face of the organization now

I love him too but-HE GONE!!!!!!

Those double plays and 2 month slumps wont be missed!1

Jjav829
01-03-2008, 06:22 PM
We don't have the players to get Bedard. The O's asking price from the Dodgers was reportedly Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. They reportedly wanted Adam Jones from the Mariners and Jay Bruce from the Reds. Count us out for sure after the Swisher trade.

Optipessimism
01-03-2008, 06:29 PM
That just reminded me. The White Sox have said they will not aquire any players who have been mentioned to or have done steroids. So this rules out Roberts. So a trade will only include Bedard. Konerko, Danks, Broadway and Uribe.
I'd have no problem surrending that package for Bedard provided we could hold onto him afterwards, but I'd rather see us work for a threeway if possible. Since the Angels are always mentioned, maybe something like:

Sox get: Bedard, Willits for CF
Angels get: Crede, Konerko
Orioles get: Nick Adenhart, John Danks, Broadway/Egbert, Casey Kotchman, Brian Anderson, and Massett/Aardsma

Three-ways hardly ever work, but the Angels and Orioles are two teams that could actually make something work. The Angels have a bunch of spare parts and the O's need a ton of help.

HarryChappas
01-03-2008, 06:32 PM
I'd have no problem surrending that package for Bedard provided we could hold onto him afterwards, but I'd rather see us work for a threeway if possible. Since the Angels are always mentioned, maybe something like:

Sox get: Bedard, Willits for CF
Angels get: Crede, Konerko
Orioles get: Nick Adenhart, John Danks, Broadway/Egbert, Casey Kotchman, Brian Anderson, and Massett/Aardsma

Three-ways hardly ever work, but the Angels and Orioles are two teams that could actually make something work. The Angels have a bunch of spare parts and the O's need a ton of help.

Great idea!!! We would be awesome, but i think the O's get slighted here.

Optipessimism
01-03-2008, 06:35 PM
We don't have the players to get Bedard. The O's asking price from the Dodgers was reportedly Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. They reportedly wanted Adam Jones from the Mariners and Jay Bruce from the Reds. Count us out for sure after the Swisher trade.

Maybe their price has come down? It does seem unlikely though, as in order to get a centerpiece for a deal we'd have to trade one of our regulars and then throw in some. Whatever package we could put together I'm sure could be easily beat by more than a few teams if they felt like it. It would probably be another Miguel Cabrera situation.

Optipessimism
01-03-2008, 06:36 PM
Great idea!!! We would be awesome, but i think the O's get slighted here.

Yeah they do. Adenhart is a pretty weak centerpiece for a Bedard deal, but I don't know if we'd be able to get a better centerpiece from any other team that would take Konerko.

oeo
01-03-2008, 06:37 PM
Farmer must post here.

soxwon
01-03-2008, 06:42 PM
Baltimore wants ready MLB players. I am not sure weather they would want Konerko but a three-way deal work out. I would guess Konerko, Danks, Broadway, Uribe and more would be gone.

Baltimore is not on PK's list. Only west division teams.

WhiteSox5187
01-03-2008, 06:48 PM
I don't think Konerko is going to go anywhere, we need him if only for PR reasons now...who replaces those 40 HR and 100 RBIs??

A deal MIGHT be able to be worked out with guys like Broadway, Uribe...I don't know who the hell else...it's a deal I'd love to see happen though.

CashMan
01-03-2008, 07:05 PM
I don't think Konerko is going to go anywhere, we need him if only for PR reasons now...who replaces those 40 HR and 100 RBIs??

A deal MIGHT be able to be worked out with guys like Broadway, Uribe...I don't know who the hell else...it's a deal I'd love to see happen though.


Swisher

fquaye149
01-03-2008, 07:11 PM
It's not newsworthy that KW is interested in them

It would be newsworthy if he WASN'T.

WhiteSox5187
01-03-2008, 07:37 PM
Swisher
You honestly think that Swisher can replace Konerko's bat in the lineup?

misty60481
01-03-2008, 07:52 PM
We need both of there bats in our line-up. We need as much power as we can get, remember we are going to have to make up for 12-15 games Garland would probably win.

CashMan
01-03-2008, 08:03 PM
You honestly think that Swisher can replace Konerko's bat in the lineup?

35HRs 100RBI....YES, Oakland is more of a on base lineup, if he swings for the fences, why not?

SoxxoS
01-03-2008, 08:17 PM
Farmer must post here.

He was on the Score after the trade broke and it was the worst analysis I have ever heard. Seriously. The guy said the two main guys in the trade for Danny Haren were ex-Sox...they were included, but def. not the major pieces or ONLY players traded for Haren.

He also fumbled a lot of other stuff...

Grzegorz
01-03-2008, 08:22 PM
However, I think the Sox should steer clear of the PR disaster of Brian Roberts.

I heard an interview with him and David Kaplan on WGN. Brian Roberts is stand up guy and would be an asset to this ball club.

That said, I am not sure what it would take to pry both he and Bedard from the O's.

jabrch
01-03-2008, 08:30 PM
We don't have the players to get Bedard. The O's asking price from the Dodgers was reportedly Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. They reportedly wanted Adam Jones from the Mariners and Jay Bruce from the Reds. Count us out for sure after the Swisher trade.

You don't think we could put Fields with Danks, Richar and something else to at least make it interesting?

Juice16
01-03-2008, 09:02 PM
Why would Konerko be traded? He's the heart and soul and face of the organization now

Thank you. Why is everybody chasing Konerko out of town in every trade scenario? Didn't Kenny already say he is not available in talks? People want to compete in 2008 yet they include possibly their best player in every trade.

SoxxoS
01-03-2008, 09:05 PM
Thank you. Why is everybody chasing Konerko out of town in every trade scenario? Didn't Kenny already say he is not available in talks? People want to compete in 2008 yet they include possibly their best player in every trade.

Because the Sox are running out of tradable assets - And Konerko is one at a fairly easy position to fill...and him leaving would be "addition by subtraction" for our "station to station" baseball, which is apparently what KW and Ozzie want out of here. Swisher, Fields or even Dye can play first in the future.

WhiteSox5187
01-03-2008, 09:10 PM
35HRs 100RBI....YES, Oakland is more of a on base lineup, if he swings for the fences, why not?
He's only done it once before....I'd really rather have both in the lineup.

HITMEN OF 77
01-03-2008, 10:00 PM
Swisher

:rolling:

gr8mexico
01-03-2008, 10:33 PM
The Sox can still pull of a trade for Bedard and Roberts. But they would have to give up John Danks, Josh Fields , Brian Anderson , Danny Richard & Juan Uribe and another prospect. The team would actually look really good on paper.
2B Roberts
CF Swisher
RF Dye
DH Thome
1B Konerko
3B Crede
C AJ
LF Quentin
SS Cabrera

1. Buehrle
2. Bedard
3. Vazquez
4. Contreras
5. Floyd/Broadway/(FA Colon)

batmanZoSo
01-03-2008, 10:37 PM
If Farmer says it, it's gotta be true!

btrain929
01-03-2008, 10:39 PM
KW is under the radar for the rest of the offseason.

I'm sure if he had a deal close to getting one of these two, let alone both (which would be impossible), I'm sure the first thing KW would do is call up ole' Farmer and let him know what he's about to do....:rolleyes:

dickallen15
01-03-2008, 10:42 PM
If Farmer says it, it's gotta be true!

Farmer actually was worth listening to in the offseason when Schueler was the GM. I think they shared an apartment during the season.

batmanZoSo
01-03-2008, 10:43 PM
Farmer actually was worth listening to in the offseason when Schueler was the GM. I think they shared an apartment during the season.

He was probably up on all the moves Schueler wasn't going to make because his prospects were so awesome.

SoxNation05
01-03-2008, 11:35 PM
Sox Trade
Konerko
Vazquez
Uribe
Owens
Danks

Sox Get
Bedard
Rios

Orioles Trade
Bedard
Roberts

Orioles Get
Konerko
Uribe
Owens
Danks
John Ford-Griffin

Blue Jays Trade
Rios
John Ford-Griffin

Blue Jays Get
Vazques
Roberts

CF Rios
SS Cabrera
DH Thome
RF Dye
1B Swisher
3B Dye
C Pierzynski
LF Quenton
2B Richar

Trade Crede for a SP: (Capuano, Santana)
SPs: Buerhle, Bedard, Contreras, Floyd, Broadway

russ99
01-03-2008, 11:42 PM
I don't buy this Paulie to Angels in a three-way. Besides if the Angels give away that level of talent, wouldn't they rather get Bedard than Paulie?

Then they can deal lesser pitchers for their 1B/3B holes. I don't see the Angels giving any gifts to the Sox, especially considering how many more quality players/prospects the Angels have to deal.

Also, dealing Vazquez for anyone is a really bad idea. He really turned the corner last year and IMO is just below ace status and still young and relatively (in the world of Zito/Zambrano) inexpensive. Bedard's a better pitcher, but not vastly.

gregory18n
01-04-2008, 12:12 AM
I'de be very happy with the trade proposed by gr8mexico. Bedard & Roberts would look great on the Sox!

WhiteSox5187
01-04-2008, 12:51 AM
The Sox can still pull of a trade for Bedard and Roberts. But they would have to give up John Danks, Josh Fields , Brian Anderson , Danny Richard & Juan Uribe and another prospect. The team would actually look really good on paper.
2B Roberts
CF Swisher
RF Dye
DH Thome
1B Konerko
3B Crede
C AJ
LF Quentin
SS Cabrera

1. Buehrle
2. Bedard
3. Vazquez
4. Contreras
5. Floyd/Broadway/(FA Colon)
I think I'd have Cabrera bat two, Swisher bat eigth and Quentin bat ninth...I really like that idea (it won't happen though!) and to play the devil's advocate here, this begs the question of, what happens if Crede can't play? Who plays third then?

esbrechtel
01-04-2008, 01:42 AM
The Sox can still pull of a trade for Bedard and Roberts. But they would have to give up John Danks, Josh Fields , Brian Anderson , Danny Richard & Juan Uribe and another prospect. The team would actually look really good on paper.
2B Roberts
CF Swisher
RF Dye
DH Thome
1B Konerko
3B Crede
C AJ
LF Quentin
SS Cabrera

1. Buehrle
2. Bedard
3. Vazquez
4. Contreras
5. Floyd/Broadway/(FA Colon)

Whose that? Danny Richard? Is he a prospect I donno about?:redneck I am not a fan of Broadway being in our starting rotation...Even if we have Bedard...

pmck003
01-04-2008, 02:10 AM
What about Konerko, Crede, Aardsma or Sisco, and Anderson for Figgins, Speier, and E Santana?

gregory18n
01-04-2008, 02:21 AM
I'de sure like to keep Konerko & I am still hoping Crede can return to form while deciding he wants to stay with the Sox. I do like Figgins though.

Zisk77
01-04-2008, 10:35 AM
Why do people continue to believe that somehow other teams want sisco and aardsma?

esbrechtel
01-04-2008, 11:28 AM
What about Konerko, Crede, Aardsma or Sisco, and Anderson for Figgins, Speier, and E Santana?
Figgins is a good leadoff hitter but is a butcher in the field...

rdivaldi
01-04-2008, 11:32 AM
Why do people continue to believe that somehow other teams want sisco and aardsma?

Sisco and Aardsma both have value because they throw hard. Whether or not we like these guys, scouts and GMs never ignore the radar gun. I guarantee there are pitching coaches out there that believe that they could turn Sisco into a Randy Johnson clone.

Tragg
01-04-2008, 02:57 PM
Why do people continue to believe that somehow other teams want sisco and aardsma?
We wanted them.
They have the same credentials as when we acquired them.
If they had value then they have value now, a mere 1 year later.

BadBobbyJenks
01-05-2008, 03:33 AM
Thank you. Why is everybody chasing Konerko out of town in every trade scenario? Didn't Kenny already say he is not available in talks? People want to compete in 2008 yet they include possibly their best player in every trade.


Because with his contract, he is the most tradable asset we have. There is no other power hitter out there making the money Paulie does. If the the right deal came around from the angels for paulie Id let him go.

gr8mexico
01-21-2008, 03:03 PM
Can it be possible that the Sox can make a huge package for Bedard and Roberts. Maybe Josh Fields, John Danks, Mike MacDougal, Danny Richar,
Juan Uribe, Nick Masset. Then this team can really be a contender.

Flight #24
01-21-2008, 03:22 PM
Can it be possible that the Sox can make a huge package for Bedard and Roberts. Maybe Josh Fields, John Danks, Mike MacDougal, Danny Richar,
Juan Uribe, Nick Masset. Then this team can really be a contender.

That would seem to be not that far off of the pile of crap that the Cubs are rumored to be shopping to the O's. Marshall/Gallagher/Pie as the centerpieces v. Fields, Danks, Richar? I'd do it in a hearbeat if they could resign Crede, but he doesn't even want to talk about that, so it leaves a huge risk/hole at 3B for 2009.

spiffie
01-21-2008, 03:26 PM
Damn, seeing this thread resurrected gave me hope there was some movement on this front. Sadly, no such luck.

SoxNation05
01-21-2008, 03:27 PM
Can it be possible that the Sox can make a huge package for Bedard and Roberts. Maybe Josh Fields, John Danks, Mike MacDougal, Danny Richar,
Juan Uribe, Nick Masset. Then this team can really be a contender.
I wonder if the O's would throw in Guthrie and Chris Ray too. If the O's did this I would move to Maryland and support them.

JermaineDye05
01-21-2008, 03:28 PM
Can it be possible that the Sox can make a huge package for Bedard and Roberts. Maybe Josh Fields, John Danks, Mike MacDougal, Danny Richar,
Juan Uribe, Nick Masset. Then this team can really be a contender.

Danks/Fields/Richar MIGHT get you Roberts. Nick Masset being the most interesting player after that, you're not going to get Bedard for that.

jabrch
01-21-2008, 03:39 PM
Danks/Fields/Richar MIGHT get you Roberts.

I wouldn't give you Fields for Roberts. Much less Danks and Richar with him.

WhiteSox5187
01-21-2008, 03:40 PM
That would seem to be not that far off of the pile of crap that the Cubs are rumored to be shopping to the O's. Marshall/Gallagher/Pie as the centerpieces v. Fields, Danks, Richar? I'd do it in a hearbeat if they could resign Crede, but he doesn't even want to talk about that, so it leaves a huge risk/hole at 3B for 2009.
You're right on that, I think it's close to the Cubs offer and that was all but a done deal UNTIL it was nixed by Peter Angelos...I think the Twins could offer Santana for those two and Angelos would still nix the deal. It really hinges on what sort of mood Angelos is in more than anything else. But would it hurt for Kenny to call and ask? No. Has he done this already? Probably.

fquaye149
01-21-2008, 04:46 PM
Danks/Fields/Richar MIGHT get you Roberts. Nick Masset being the most interesting player after that, you're not going to get Bedard for that.

You kidding me?

Danks and Fields along with Masset would be more than enough to get BEDARD....

Giving up that much for Roberts? Not a chance. Fields himself is worth about 1.5x as much as Roberts from a trade standpoint

fquaye149
01-21-2008, 04:48 PM
Can it be possible that the Sox can make a huge package for Bedard and Roberts. Maybe Josh Fields, John Danks, Mike MacDougal, Danny Richar,
Juan Uribe, Nick Masset. Then this team can really be a contender.

"Fields/Danks/Masset" woudl be more likely to net us the both of them, since we wouldn't be saddling them with the salaries of 3 worthless trade pieces.

But hey! If they don't take the Fields/Danks/MacDougal/Richar/Masset/Uribe deal, we'll just offer to throw in Toby Hall, Brian Anderson, and Pablo Ozuna, as long as we're just throwing players no GM in MLB would consider valuable additions to a trade on the pile

Sargeant79
01-21-2008, 05:21 PM
You kidding me?

Danks and Fields along with Masset would be more than enough to get BEDARD....

Giving up that much for Roberts? Not a chance. Fields himself is worth about 1.5x as much as Roberts from a trade standpoint

I think you are really overvaluing our players.

fquaye149
01-21-2008, 05:28 PM
I think you are really overvaluing our players.

I am. I read "Danks" as "Jenks" for some reason. Oops.

Danks/Fields/Masset is not enough to get Bedard, but it is MORE than enough to get Roberts.

Roberts's value is not that high.

Sargeant79
01-21-2008, 05:34 PM
I am. I read "Danks" as "Jenks" for some reason. Oops.

Danks/Fields/Masset is not enough to get Bedard, but it is MORE than enough to get Roberts.

Roberts's value is not that high.

That, I'll agree with. I also agree with that being way too much to pay for Brian Roberts, even if that's what the O's would be asking for. Personally, I'm content with giving Richar first crack at the starting 2B job.

soxinem1
01-21-2008, 05:55 PM
I'll be honest, Roberts leading off with Cabrera at #2 is quite appealing.......

fquaye149
01-21-2008, 05:58 PM
I'll be honest, Roberts leading off with Cabrera at #2 is quite appealing.......

Sure, but not at the expense of trading Fields and two members of the pitching staff for 08....

Or maybe. Who knows. I mean...he did have BY FAR his best year while on steroids, but why worry about that?

sullythered
01-21-2008, 06:20 PM
Sure, but not at the expense of trading Fields and two members of the pitching staff for 08....

Or maybe. Who knows. I mean...he did have BY FAR his best year while on steroids, but why worry about that?
I thought he juiced in '03?

gr8mexico
01-21-2008, 07:28 PM
Sure, but not at the expense of trading Fields and two members of the pitching staff for 08....

Or maybe. Who knows. I mean...he did have BY FAR his best year while on steroids, but why worry about that?
Only if some people would do some research before they post. 2005 & 2007 was his best season. Last year he stole 50 bases and walked 89 times with a OBP of 377 that in my mind is really good and is worth Josh Fields but not one of are starting pitchers unless we can get Bedard in the deal. A leadoff hitter is worth more then a guy that hits 30 HR but a AVG of .250

veeter
01-21-2008, 07:42 PM
I still don't understand why Baltimore would trade Bedard. He's excellent, young and cheap. These insulting offers the ****ing cubs keep floating out, are ridiculous. It would take a whole lot to get that guy, and really I don't think the O's are that dumb, are they?

jabrch
01-21-2008, 07:46 PM
I still don't understand why Baltimore would trade Bedard. He's excellent, young and cheap. These insulting offers the ****ing cubs keep floating out, are ridiculous. It would take a whole lot to get that guy, and really I don't think the O's are that dumb, are they?

He's got 2 years left - so they are shopping him. If they get a package that includes either two top prospects like the Seattle deal or a guy like Hill along with a Pie, and then two more from the Colvin, Marshall, Murton, Gallagher pile, they might send him to the Cubs.

I don't know why Hill, Pie, Marshall and Murton would be considered a ridiculous offer for a guy who has had 0 200+ IP seasons, only one season with 29+ starts, etc.

WhiteSox5187
01-21-2008, 07:46 PM
I still don't understand why Baltimore would trade Bedard. He's excellent, young and cheap. These insulting offers the ****ing cubs keep floating out, are ridiculous. It would take a whole lot to get that guy, and really I don't think the O's are that dumb, are they?
Never under estimate Peter Angelos.

fquaye149
01-21-2008, 07:58 PM
Only if some people would do some research before they post. 2005 & 2007 was his best season. Last year he stole 50 bases and walked 89 times with a OBP of 377 that in my mind is really good and is worth Josh Fields but not one of are starting pitchers unless we can get Bedard in the deal. A leadoff hitter is worth more then a guy that hits 30 HR but a AVG of .250

:rolleyes:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/roberbr01.shtml

2005 (steroids) was by far his best year. His OPS+ in 2007 was 112, which is only slightly above average.

2005: .387 OBP/.515 SLG:o:/ .902 OPS 18 HR
2007: .377 OBP/.432 SLG :?:/ .802 OPS 12 HR

And those are the only two years of his career really worth talking about, the only two years when he put up above-average numbers--a juicing year when he put up relatively huge power numbers, and last year when he had essentially a very-good year for a leadoff hitter.

Meanwhile you talk about Fields like he's some sort of Rob Deer type. (.250 hitter with 30 HR power). Hardly:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fieldjo02.shtml

In limited playing time, as a 24 year old, put up 24 HR and a 101 OPS+. Is making next to nothing and is still upswinging toward the prime of his career while Roberts makes much more money approaching the downswing of his career.

But yeah...next time you accuse someone of "not doing his research" make sure you do your research of how to interpret very basic facts'

PS: before people start coming in with that "Roberts only admitted to trying steroids in 2003," COME ON. Let's be realistic. Here's a pretty good article on the subject-- http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/12/18/brian-roberts-i-took-one-shot-of-steroids/

veeter
01-21-2008, 08:02 PM
He's got 2 years left - so they are shopping him. If they get a package that includes either two top prospects like the Seattle deal or a guy like Hill along with a Pie, and then two more from the Colvin, Marshall, Murton, Gallagher pile, they might send him to the Cubs.

I don't know why Hill, Pie, Marshall and Murton would be considered a ridiculous offer for a guy who has had 0 200+ IP seasons, only one season with 29+ starts, etc.I just think very little of those guys. Collectively it doesn't look bad especially with Hill. But Bedard can be dominant, and was last year in the AL. I think he'd win 20 in the NL. Now, I don't know his injury history, but he's thrown almost 400 innings the last two years combined. He's a star on the rise. AnNd Felix Pie is going to be, yet another overly hyped cub flop, IMO.

areilly
01-21-2008, 08:14 PM
I thought he juiced in '03?

Yes. Only in 2003. And only that one time that happened to be mentioned in the Mitchell Report. What a coincidence.

gr8mexico
01-21-2008, 09:14 PM
Ok let's say he took steroids in every other year besides 2007. Dont tell me you still wouldnt take him with the numbers he put up last year. With Roberts and Cabrera in the top of the lineup the Sox can honestly challenge the Tigers for the Division.

oeo
01-21-2008, 09:18 PM
Ok let's say he took steroids in every other year besides 2007. Dont tell me you still wouldnt take him with the numbers he put up last year. With Roberts and Cabrera in the top of the lineup the Sox can honestly challenge the Tigers for the Division.

There's still a very good possibility that he's still on something. Even his numbers last year were a lot better than the ones earlier in his career.

No thanks, it's entirely possible that this guy just 'loses it' next year.

gr8mexico
01-21-2008, 09:21 PM
:?::rolleyes:



Meanwhile you talk about Fields like he's some sort of Rob Deer type. (.250 hitter with 30 HR power). Hardly:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fieldjo02.shtml

In limited playing time, as a 24 year old, put up 24 HR and a 101 OPS+. Is making next to nothing and is still upswinging toward the prime of his career while Roberts makes much more money approaching the downswing of his career.

But yeah...next time you accuse someone of "not doing his research" make sure you do your research of how to interpret very basic facts'

PS: before people start coming in with that "Roberts only admitted to trying steroids in 2003," COME ON. Let's be realistic. Here's a pretty good article on the subject-- http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/12/18/brian-roberts-i-took-one-shot-of-steroids/
Why dont you talk about how Josh Fields had 125K in limited time and 35 BB. At that pace he could end up with 200K and 50 BB next year and a OBP of 300. Why did you only point out 2 stats? Because the rest where AWFUL!!!!

oeo
01-21-2008, 09:23 PM
:?:
Why dont you talk about how Josh Fields had 125K in limited time and 35 BB. At that pace he could end up with 200K and 50 BB next year and a OBP of 300. Why did you only point out 2 stats? Because the rest where AWFUL!!!!

How about we talk about how that was his rookie year? His walks will go up, and his Ks will go down with time. Give the guy a chance before you start saying he's going to strikeout 200 times a year.

soxinem1
01-21-2008, 09:28 PM
How about we talk about how that was his rookie year? His walks will go up, and his Ks will go down with time. Give the guy a chance before you start saying he's going to strikeout 200 times a year.

History says Fields may well be a RH Adam Dunn. But I think he needs far more than 2/3 of a season to be judged.

fquaye149
01-21-2008, 09:40 PM
:?:
Why dont you talk about how Josh Fields had 125K in limited time and 35 BB. At that pace he could end up with 200K and 50 BB next year and a OBP of 300. Why did you only point out 2 stats? Because the rest where AWFUL!!!!

That was in his first full season of full time.

If we extrapolate the numbers out ignoring the fact that he's 24, and has shown improvement in k's and bb's at every level, then yes, he's awful and Brian Roberts is better.

But if we look at him as if he were, say, 24 years old, and entering his 2nd full season in the majors, then, like, well, like, you know, he looks quite a bit better a commodity than brian roberts

fquaye149
01-21-2008, 09:40 PM
History says Fields may well be a RH Adam Dunn. But I think he needs far more than 2/3 of a season to be judged.

That would be ****ing fantastic if he were a RH Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn is one of the 25 best hitters in MLB

PalehosePlanet
01-21-2008, 09:57 PM
Never under estimate Peter Angelos.

The Mariners have been in talks regarding Bedard for weeks. Adam Jones and Jeff Clement are the two prospects always rumored to be going to Seattle.

Also The Reds have been inquiring about Bedard but are refusing to give up super prospect Jay Bruce.

The Cubs rumors regarding Bedard are pure bull****. A bunch of bored Trib and Times writers thought: hey since the cubs are already after Roberts, why not Bedard too....oooh oooh oooh wouldn't that be great? I think I'll start a rumor!

If the O's choose to deal w/the Mariners and can land Adam Jones that's their best bet. Jones alone is worth more than the combo of Pie, Gallagher and Marshall/Hill.

As far as we go: Sorry, there is no way in hell I trade a monster in the making like Fileds for Brian Roberts.

Optipessimism
01-21-2008, 11:01 PM
That was in his first full season of full time.

If we extrapolate the numbers out ignoring the fact that he's 24, and has shown improvement in k's and bb's at every level, then yes, he's awful and Brian Roberts is better.

But if we look at him as if he were, say, 24 years old, and entering his 2nd full season in the majors, then, like, well, like, you know, he looks quite a bit better a commodity than brian roberts
Agreed. Age, experience, injuries, and expected improvement obviously must be considered. What do think is going to happen when Josh is 100% healthy and gains experience? The K's will always be there in high numbers, but the walks should increase quite a bit. Especially if Quentin does what is expected of him. He'll have some great protection in the lineup.

btrain929
01-21-2008, 11:15 PM
The Mariners have been in talks regarding Bedard for weeks. Adam Jones and Jeff Clement are the two prospects always rumored to be going to Seattle.

Also The Reds have been inquiring about Bedard but are refusing to give up super prospect Jay Bruce.

The Cubs rumors regarding Bedard are pure bull****. A bunch of bored Trib and Times writers thought: hey since the cubs are already after Roberts, why not Bedard too....oooh oooh oooh wouldn't that be great? I think I'll start a rumor!

If the O's choose to deal w/the Mariners and can land Adam Jones that's their best bet. Jones alone is worth more than the combo of Pie, Gallagher and Marshall/Hill.

As far as we go: Sorry, there is no way in hell I trade a monster in the making like Fileds for Brian Roberts.

Already on Seattle. I'm guessing you meant Baltimore. I'll let it slide this one time...... :tongue:

And with a name like Fileds, he definitely sounds like a monster!

Sorry, it's late and I'm on a grammatical mission :redface:

Tragg
01-21-2008, 11:21 PM
I don't know why Hill, Pie, Marshall and Murton would be considered a ridiculous offer for a guy who has had 0 200+ IP seasons, only one season with 29+ starts, etc.
Some people get all goofy on these "stuff" pitchers. Remember the "elite" AJ Burnett? And frankly, Williams likes these guys too (Vazquez is one of them; he tried for Burnett, and has at least inquired re Bedard). I think Bedard is pretty good, or will be, but he only has 2 years before he's a FA and we already spent most of our available bullets. And I certainly wouldn't trade our young players for Roberts.

Fields looks darn promising after a portion of a year. He can hit. Adam Dunn-like? I'll take it.

fquaye149
01-22-2008, 12:48 AM
Some people get all goofy on these "stuff" pitchers. Remember the "elite" AJ Burnett? And frankly, Williams likes these guys too (Vazquez is one of them; he tried for Burnett, and has at least inquired re Bedard). I think Bedard is pretty good, or will be, but he only has 2 years before he's a FA and we already spent most of our available bullets. And I certainly wouldn't trade our young players for Roberts.

Fields looks darn promising after a portion of a year. He can hit. Adam Dunn-like? I'll take it.

Bedard is a legit stud. He's had 2 great years and has improved in each of the last 3 years.

However, he's not coming here, and if he WERE what we'd give up to get him would hurt us in terms of producing more holes in our roster than his presence would help

gosox41
01-22-2008, 03:29 AM
You're right on that, I think it's close to the Cubs offer and that was all but a done deal UNTIL it was nixed by Peter Angelos...I think the Twins could offer Santana for those two and Angelos would still nix the deal. It really hinges on what sort of mood Angelos is in more than anything else. But would it hurt for Kenny to call and ask? No. Has he done this already? Probably.


Angelos is an idiot. But based on how the O's are set up next year, I'd nix that trade to.


Bob

santo=dorf
01-22-2008, 05:44 PM
Bedard is a legit stud. He's had 2 great years and has improved in each of the last 3 years.

However, he's not coming here, and if he WERE what we'd give up to get him would hurt us in terms of producing more holes in our roster than his presence would help
I have a hard time accepting a "great" season containing a 1.35 WHIP.
That would be ****ing fantastic if he were a RH Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn is one of the 25 best hitters in MLB
I had a list of 25 no doubters I'd take over him, and another 25 I'd make a case for, but the server ate it up.:angry:

fquaye149
01-22-2008, 05:48 PM
I have a hard time accepting a "great" season containing a 1.35 WHIP.

no, his whip wasn't excellent, but his k/9 and k/bb were fantastic, his ERA was quite good, and his ERA + was 121


I had a list of 25 no doubters I'd take over him, and another 25 I'd make a case for, but the server ate it up.:angry:


Give or take 5 hitters, but there's no denying Dunn consistently puts up 35-45 HR's along with an OBP around .400....semantics aside, people simply need to stop talking about Adam Dunn as if he's not a great hitter.

Let's get past this obsession with K's

Corlose 15
01-22-2008, 05:51 PM
no, his whip wasn't excellent, but his k/9 and k/bb were fantastic, his ERA was quite good, and his ERA + was 121




Give or take 5 hitters, but there's no denying Dunn consistently puts up 35-45 HR's along with an OBP around .400....semantics aside, people simply need to stop talking about Adam Dunn as if he's not a great hitter.

Let's get past this obsession with K's

I think its the Frank Thomas effect. People think that power hitters who walk a lot and don't strike out a lot grow on trees.

santo=dorf
01-22-2008, 06:05 PM
no, his whip wasn't excellent, but his k/9 and k/bb were fantastic, his ERA was quite good, and his ERA + was 121
9th in ERA, 23rd in IP, 22nd in WHIP, 10th K/9, 17th in K/BB. That is not "excellent" especially if Javier Vazquez was finishing above you in a couple of categories (remember, 2006.) Freddy Garcia, Javier, Jon Garland all had better K/BB and Even Contreras was only .04 behind. And that was in a "down and tired" season for the Sox staff. BTW, those were AL rankings only.

Give or take 5 hitters, but there's no denying Dunn consistently puts up 35-45 HR's along with an OBP around .400....semantics aside, people simply need to stop talking about Adam Dunn as if he's not a great hitter.

Let's get past this obsession with K's
It's one thing to say he's not a great hitter, and it's just as wild to say he is in the top 20-30 honestly.

Adam Dunn has only post an OBP of .400 once, and that was 5 years ago when it was exactly .400. I realize you said "around .400," but giving him and extra 14 points in OBP in three seasons is pretty lenient IMO.

fquaye149
01-22-2008, 06:52 PM
9th in ERA, 23rd in IP, 22nd in WHIP, 10th K/9, 17th in K/BB. That is not "excellent" especially if Javier Vazquez was finishing above you in a couple of categories (remember, 2006.) Freddy Garcia, Javier, Jon Garland all had better K/BB and Even Contreras was only .04 behind. And that was in a "down and tired" season for the Sox staff. BTW, those were AL rankings only.

Whatever. You want to stop nitpicking? He had a very good year in 2006 and an outstanding year in 2007. He's also like 27. There's every reason to believe he's the real deal.


It's one thing to say he's not a great hitter, and it's just as wild to say he is in the top 20-30 honestly.

Adam Dunn has only post an OBP of .400 once, and that was 5 years ago when it was exactly .400. I realize you said "around .400," but giving him and extra 14 points in OBP in three seasons is pretty lenient IMO.All Dunn's done in his 7 season career is average 40 HR a year, a .381 OBP, and a .519 SLG. He's also averaged a 130 OPS+. And he's 27 years old.

He's really never had a bad season, especially since he started playing regularly. The closest he's come is 2006 when he hit 40 HR and OBPed .365.

He's young, he's consistently putting up excellent numbers, and he has good speed. You want to tell me who these 40 players are who are more reliable offensive weapons than Dunn? (I say 40 because for you to say that "top 25 is a ridiculous claim" I assume that means Dunn must not be in the top 40 either, or else it wouldn't be such a ridiculous claim....however if you wish, just show me the 30 players who are so much better and reliable than Dunn that this was a ridiculous claim on my part)

Adam Dunn's EQA ranking in 2007:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa2007.php
For the record, there were only 20 hitters in MLB last year with a better equivalent average than Dunn

santo=dorf
01-22-2008, 07:10 PM
Whatever. You want to stop nitpicking? He had a very good year in 2006 and an outstanding year in 2007. He's also like 27. There's every reason to believe he's the real deal.

I know he's a good talent, but that's not my argument. My argument was his 2006 wasn't "excellent." Looks like I was right. :cool:
All Dunn's done in his 7 season career is average 40 HR a year, a .381 OBP, and a .519 SLG. He's also averaged a 130 OPS+. And he's 27 years old.

He's really never had a bad season, especially since he started playing regularly. The closest he's come is 2006 when he hit 40 HR and OBPed .365.

He's young, he's consistently putting up excellent numbers, and he has good speed. You want to tell me who these 40 players are who are more reliable offensive weapons than Dunn? (I say 40 because for you to say that "top 25 is a ridiculous claim" I assume that means Dunn must not be in the top 40 either, or else it wouldn't be such a ridiculous claim....however if you wish, just show me the 30 players who are so much better and reliable than Dunn that this was a ridiculous claim on my part)
Ok, I'll do this again.
Joe Mauer, Hafner, V. Matrinez, Sizemore, Thome, Cabrera, Sheffield, Ordonez, Posada, Jeter, A-Rod, Manny, Ortiz, Frank Thomas, Ichiro, Vlad, Pujols, Berkman, Fielder, Derrek Lee, Howard, Utley, Chipper Jones, Teixera Reyes, Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Bonds, Holliday.

Honorable mention:
Konerko, Granderson, Crawford, Young, Aramis Ramirez, Braun, Tolowitkiz, Helton, Carlos Lee, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado (he had down year last season,) Carlos Guillen, Abreu.

I don't if that's entire list from before, but I think I made my point. :cool:

JohnTucker0814
01-22-2008, 07:28 PM
I know he's a good talent, but that's not my argument. My argument was his 2006 wasn't "excellent." Looks like I was right. :cool:

Ok, I'll do this again.
Joe Mauer, Hafner, V. Matrinez, Sizemore, Thome, Cabrera, Sheffield, Ordonez, Posada, Jeter, A-Rod, Manny, Ortiz, Frank Thomas, Ichiro, Vlad, Pujols, Berkman, Fielder, Derrek Lee, Howard, Utley, Chipper Jones, Teixera Reyes, Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Bonds, Holliday.

Honorable mention:
Konerko, Granderson, Crawford, Young, Aramis Ramirez, Braun, Tolowitkiz, Helton, Carlos Lee, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado (he had down year last season,) Carlos Guillen, Abreu.

I don't if that's entire list from before, but I think I made my point. :cool:

I'd say the bolded are questionable to be better than Dunn. Let me explain:

Mauer - has 10x the talent... but hasn't stayed healthy a full year
Thomas - in his prime 10x better... over the past 5 years, not so much
Jones - injury, injury, injury - I'd take Dunn over him
Bruan, Tulowitski - have had 1 good rookie year... you cannot count them ahead of Dunn until they can stay healthy and continue to produce over a couple of years.
Pena - give me a break...

santo=dorf
01-22-2008, 07:33 PM
I'd say the bolded are questionable to be better than Dunn. Let me explain:

Mauer - has 10x the talent... but hasn't stayed healthy a full year
Thomas - in his prime 10x better... over the past 5 years, not so much
Jones - injury, injury, injury - I'd take Dunn over him
Bruan, Tulowitski - have had 1 good rookie year... you cannot count them ahead of Dunn until they can stay healthy and continue to produce over a couple of years.
Pena - give me a break...
doood, but they're so young!

No doubt those guys have injury concerns, but if you're going to make the health argument with Braun and Tulo, you have the say the same for Dunn about staying healthy. He's a risk when he's playing in left.

Chipper Jones is severely underrated and even in the times where he didn't get 500 at-bats, he was extremely productive.

fquaye149
01-22-2008, 09:50 PM
I know he's a good talent, but that's not my argument. My argument was his 2006 wasn't "excellent." Looks like I was right. :cool:

Ok, I'll do this again.
Joe Mauer, Hafner, V. Matrinez, Sizemore, Thome, Cabrera, Sheffield, Ordonez, Posada, Jeter, A-Rod, Manny, Ortiz, Frank Thomas, Ichiro, Vlad, Pujols, Berkman, Fielder, Derrek Lee, Howard, Utley, Chipper Jones, Teixera Reyes, Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Bonds, Holliday.

Honorable mention:
Konerko, Granderson, Crawford, Young, Aramis Ramirez, Braun, Tolowitkiz, Helton, Carlos Lee, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado (he had down year last season,) Carlos Guillen, Abreu.

I don't if that's entire list from before, but I think I made my point. :cool:

Even if you ignore the EQA debate (which you shouldn't), in 2007:

ADAM DUNN: 940 OPS, 40 HR

Mauer: 808 OPS, 7 HR
Verdict: Not even close to as good a hitter as Dunn
Hafner: 837 OPS 24 HR
Verdict: Had a down year. Is better than Dunn every other year (+1)
V. Martinez: 879 OPS 25 HR
Verdict: Not even close
Sizemore: 852 OPS 24 HR
Verdict: Not even close. Speed seems like it would give him an advantage over Dunn offensively, but 33 SB and 10 CS is not a very good success rate
Thome: 973 OPS 35 HR
Verdict: Probably slightly better than Dunn, though on the extreme downslope in his career and will be lucky to play in 100 games next year (+1)
Cabrera: 965 OPS 34 HR
Verdict: Probably better since he hits for a higher average, but a lot closer than you would expect, especially since weight is a concern for Cabrera and not for Dunn. Gets the edge b/c he is 24 not 27 (a very reluctant +1)
Sheff: 839 OPS 25 HR
Verdict: Nope. He's getting really old, and his numbers just don't match up anyway
Maggs: 1029 OPS 28 HR
Verdict: Maggs is a better hitter than Dunn (+1)
Posada: 970 OPS 20 HR
Verdict: Equivalent OPS. 2007 was by far a career year though. On a year to year basis Dunn puts up MUCH better numbers (career OPS for Posada= 860). Not a better hitter.
Jeter: 840 OPS 12 HR
Verdict: You might protest that Jeter's speed makes him better, but in 2007 had 15 SB and 8 CS. And that's not out of line with his career #'s
A-rod: 1067 OPS 54 HR
Verdict: Yes. A-Rod is a better hitter than Dunn. Surprise. (+1)
Manny: 881 OPS 20 HR
Verdict: Despite a down 2007, Manny is also a better hitter than Dunn (+1)
Ortiz:1066 OPS 35 HR
Verdict: Ortiz is also a better hitter than Dunn (+1)
Hurt: 857 OPS 26 HR
Verdict: Frank WAS infinitely better than Dunn. Frank is no longer better than DUnn
Ichiro: 827 OPS 6 HR
Verdict: On a year to year basis Ichiro is probably a better hitter than Dunn. It's hard to compare different roles. But give it to Ichiro (+1)
Vlad: 950 OPS 27 HR
Verdict: Vlad doesn't steal bases anymore, so this is pretty much a wash. But we'll give you him just so you have another one to hang your hat on (+1)
Pujols: 997 OPS 32 HR
Verdict: Yes. Pujols is better (+1)
Berkman: 896 OPS 34 HR
Verdict: Yes, 2007 was a down year and he had a monster 2006, but 2005 was not much better than 2007 and his career numbers aren't that far off from Dunn. He just hits less home runs
Fielder: 1013 OPS 50 HR
Verdict: Fielder had a better 2007 than Dunn by a long measure (+1)
Derek Lee: 913 OPS 22 HR
Verdict: Nope. And it's not like his speed (to the tune of 6 SB, 5 CS) makes any difference
Howard: 976 OPS 47 HR
Verdict: Howard is better (+1)
Utley: 976 OPS 22 HR
Verdict: Utley is slightly better(+1)
Chipper: 1029 OPS 22 HR
Verdict: Chipper is better (+1)
Teixeira: 1020 OPS 17 HR
Verdict: in 57 games he was better in 2007. However, his career numbers are worse than Dunn's and Dunn's biggest value as a hitter is his excellent consistency. Overall Dunn is a better hitter than Teixeira, who has had a couple scattered stretches of good hitting, and a lot of worse hitting and injury
Reyes: 775 OPS 12 HR
Verdict: Maybe his stealing helps him break even. MAYBE. Not giving you this one.
Wright: 963 OPS 30 HR
Verdict: Give him the edge b/c of his youth (+1)
Hanley: 948 OPS 29 HR
Verdict: A tossup. Give it to Ramirez because of youth (though Dunn's TWENTY SEVEN HIMSELF) (+1)
Bonds: 1025 OPS 28 HR
Verdict: Bonds may never play another game of major league baseball again, therefore it's hardly fair to count him against Dunn in the top 25 hitters category...especially since no team has been willing to sign him
Holliday: 1012 OPS 36 HR
Verdict: Is better (+1)

Also you forgot Rollins (+1)

Remember: this is not "who's a good hitter for a catcher" or "who has a higher vorp because they're a ss while Dunn is an OF". I said "best hitters." Therefore, only raw offensive stats like OPS, HR, and SB were relevant.

Let's tally it up:

I counted 17 players on that list you can say are "clearly" better hitters than Dunn (and as a matter of fact, if you read, a couple of them are tossups).

Fact is, it's not quite so ridiculous to claim that Dunn is one of the 25 best hitters in MLB is it?

In fact, I believe BP's eqa chart has him at 22nd

santo=dorf
01-23-2008, 06:34 AM
So I guess the better question is why are you using a bunk, manufactured stat EQA for one season to support a claim that is supposed to is based on a history of performance? :?: Then you are comparing flat OPS's around to every hitter which results in dumbass claims like Sizemore "isn't even close," yet when you see the system has a flaw in Ichiro, you acknowledge it. Whatever. You should really take into account the position the player plays as team cannot stick an Adam Dunn figure in CF, 2B, or C which makes Sizemore, Utley and Posada better hitters.

Last year was a career year for Dunn as his BA was actually respectful for once, and his OPS was high enough to get his career OPS to a flat .900. Do I think he can do it again? Absolutely. However I'm more inclined to believe he'll put up a .235/.375/.490 40 HR season based on history, and I would be thrilled if Fields could do that as well. :cool:

fquaye149
01-23-2008, 07:44 AM
So I guess the better question is why are you using a bunk, manufactured stat EQA for one season to support a claim

Do you even understand EQA? Just wondering... It's quite accurate.

Then you are comparing flat OPS's around to every hitter which results in dumbass claims like Sizemore "isn't even close,"

Sizemore isn't close in any category but batting average. And his batting average hasn't been all that good. Sizemore has never hit .300 and his career BA is only 40 points higher than Dunn's

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sizemgr01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dunnad01.shtml

On the other hand, Ichiro perennially hits more than 20 points above .300 and his career BA is nearly 100 points higher than Dunn's. Ichiro also perennially steals a number of bases at an 85% success rate, compared to Sizemore's 75% success rate with much less steals. Also, Ichiro was a very borderline pick. He's lucky he got a plus one. Ichiro is a much much much better contact hitter than Dunn, but he doesn't take many walks and he hits for absolutely no power[/quote]


You should really take into account the position the player plays as team cannot stick an Adam Dunn figure in CF, 2B, or C which makes Sizemore, Utley and Posada better hitters.

Why? You told me I was foolish for saying that Dunn was a top 25 HITTER in baseball. I didn't claim that he was a top 25 PLAYER.

Sure, Mauer's skills, for instance, are rarer at catcher, but that doesn't make him a better hitter. Catchers traditionally are worse HITTERS than OF's.

And my comment was based on some person saying "Fields might become the next Dunn" like it was a bad thing. So why on earth would it be relevant to discuss what position Dunn, Mauer, Utley, etc. play when comparing them as hitters? FIELDS AND DUNN don't play the same position.


Last year was a career year for Dunn as his BA was actually respectful for once, and his OPS was high enough to get his career OPS to a flat .900. Do I think he can do it again? Absolutely. However I'm more inclined to believe he'll put up a .235/.375/.490 40 HR season based on history, and I would be thrilled if Fields could do that as well. :cool:

Last year was NOT a career year.

in 2005 his OPS was 927 and he had 40 HR
in 2004 his OPS was 957 and he had 46 HR

his career avg OPS is 900 and he has averaged 40 HR per 162 games.

But yeah, a 940 OPS with 40 HR in 2007 was definitely a "career year":rolleyes:

santo=dorf
01-23-2008, 08:54 AM
H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP) + SB
---------------------------- = EqA
AB + BB + HBP + CS + SB/3

Just like I said, a manufactured stat. If this were Graig Grebeck posting this, he'd be slammed "with BP is garbage," and "what do a bunch of propellerheads know?" type posts. I don't use this stat, so if it's what you primarily use to evaluate players we're not going to be able to going this discussion because I don't use it at all.

"his career BA is only 40 points higher than Dunn's"

Holy crap. That is astronomical. Seriously, "only." :rolling:

I don't think a player's position should be a major factor when considering how good of a player he is but is something to consider. Remember how much better Frank was as a first baseman than a DH? Was it purely coincidental, or was there something to Frank being more focused at the plate because he had to be more focused in the field. You can't build a team around 9 Adam Dunn's and even if his ONE season last year made him the 17th or 20th best hitter in the league, it isn't as hard to find a replacement that can put up better or similiar numbers compared to say, a Hanley Ramirez at short.

Stat heads also have a stat to consider hitting at each position, VORP, and Dunn came in at 36th. So if I wanted to be a complete propeller head and declare Adam Dunn was the 36th best hitter in the MLB last year, I could use that as my evidence.

I really hate the term "career year" as I recall asking people if a person could have multiple career years, and more than a handful of people said "yes."

Last season Dunn had one that was very similar to 2004, but with a new high in RBI's and he didn't come close to striking out 200 times. It was a great year for him. Since I am willing to play along with "career years can happen more than once" I said so. He also appear to be more consistent last year looking at his monthly splits.

fquaye149
01-23-2008, 10:45 AM
H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP) + SB
---------------------------- = EqA
AB + BB + HBP + CS + SB/3

Just like I said, a manufactured stat. If this were Graig Grebeck posting this, he'd be slammed "with BP is garbage," and "what do a bunch of propellerheads know?" type posts. I don't use this stat, so if it's what you primarily use to evaluate players we're not going to be able to going this discussion because I don't use it at all.

So it's a manufactured stat because many people on this board slam people who use Sabrmetric stats? What on earth does "how Craig Grebeck has been treated in the past" have to do with the legitimacy of a stat.

:rolleyes:

It may or not be complicated (so is QB rating) but it generally seems to show in pure hitting terms who is most valuable with the stick. And anyway, I didn't base my entire case on it. I just pointed it out as an ancillary support to my argument. My main argument was based on OPS, which is a very accurate measurement of your value as a hitter, because it points out how well you get on base and how well you hit for power (sure it's slightly skewed to OBP, but that shouldn't be a huge concern when trying to make a case for a power hitter)


"his career BA is only 40 points higher than Dunn's"

Compared to Ichiro's 100 points higher. Way to take my quote out of context


I don't think a player's position should be a major factor when considering how good of a player he is but is something to consider. Remember how much better Frank was as a first baseman than a DH? Was it purely coincidental, or was there something to Frank being more focused at the plate because he had to be more focused in the field. You can't build a team around 9 Adam Dunn's and even if his ONE season last year made him the 17th or 20th best hitter in the league, it isn't as hard to find a replacement that can put up better or similiar numbers compared to say, a Hanley Ramirez at short.DUDE: Yes, a player's position is a HUGE factor in how good a PLAYER they are. But I said Dunn is a top 25 HITTER in MLB. Not a top 25 Player.


Stat heads also have a stat to consider hitting at each position, VORP, and Dunn came in at 36th. So if I wanted to be a complete propeller head and declare Adam Dunn was the 36th best hitter in the MLB last year, I could use that as my evidence.I'm not talking about VORP. I'm talking about hitting. Hitting, dorf. HITTING.


I really hate the term "career year" as I recall asking people if a person could have multiple career years, and more than a handful of people said "yes."

Last season Dunn had one that was very similar to 2004, but with a new high in RBI's and he didn't come close to striking out 200 times. It was a great year for him. Since I am willing to play along with "career years can happen more than once" I said so. He also appear to be more consistent last year looking at his monthly splits.Dunn had a very good 2007. He also had a great 2005 and 2004. He has had 3 career years in a 7 year career if 2007 was a career year. Also his "career year" numbers are not very far off his "career average" so it's more like "he is a consistently great hitter" than "he had a career year in 2007."

Look. You are clearly arguing the wrong point so hard that you're not going to care about what cogent arguments I make to support the actual thing I said.

I never said Dunn is a top 25 PLAYER in baseball, because that wouldn't be relevant to the topic at hand as Fields doesn't play the OF. Furthermore DUnn is FAR from a top 25 PLAYER. He's probably in the top 50 somewhere.

However, I DID say Dunn is a top-25 HITTER. Which he is. If you ignore everything but hitting (and baserunning), Dunn is better than most players in baseball. Which is relevant, since we were only talking about Field's HITTING.

But go on, keep telling me about how Hanley Ramirez plays SS, as if that's relevant to the point you tried to ridicule me for making :rolleyes:

santo=dorf
01-23-2008, 12:40 PM
So it's a manufactured stat because many people on this board slam people who use Sabrmetric stats? What on earth does "how Craig Grebeck has been treated in the past" have to do with the legitimacy of a stat.

:rolleyes:


Compared to Ichiro's 100 points higher. Way to take my quote out of context

Pot meet kettle. My reference to Craig Grebeck has nothing to do with my thoughts on the Value of eqa. It was a simple observation I made.

DUDE: Yes, a player's position is a HUGE factor in how good a PLAYER they are. But I said Dunn is a top 25 HITTER in MLB. Not a top 25 Player.

I'm not talking about VORP. I'm talking about hitting. Hitting, dorf. HITTING.
DUDE. BP's own definition:
Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.
i.e. ONLY ****ING HITTING.

Look. You are clearly arguing the wrong point so hard that you're not going to care about what cogent arguments I make to support the actual thing I said.

I never said Dunn is a top 25 PLAYER in baseball, because that wouldn't be relevant to the topic at hand as Fields doesn't play the OF. Furthermore DUnn is FAR from a top 25 PLAYER. He's probably in the top 50 somewhere.

However, I DID say Dunn is a top-25 HITTER. Which he is. If you ignore everything but hitting (and baserunning), Dunn is better than most players in baseball. Which is relevant, since we were only talking about Field's HITTING.

But go on, keep telling me about how Hanley Ramirez plays SS, as if that's relevant to the point you tried to ridicule me for making :rolleyes:
You started the spamfest by making a false claim about Bedard and dismissing the raw stats with "whatever." You also assume by me saying Dunn not being a 25 hitter means I think he strikes out too much and he sucks.

THEN after I list a long list of players I would take over Dunn, you come back comparing OPS's and IN THE SAME BREATH you mention how it's not really fair to compare OPS's of Ichiro to Dunn. Even more odd, you're gushing over EqA, but only talk about OPS in a direct comparison between players.

This thread isn't about Dunn, yet you have nothing better to do than list one BP stat, and compare another which you don't think is a fair tool to use and you did this AFTER you assume I thought Adam Dunn sucked.

You're better off trying to convince me how Bedard had a great 2006. Let's play that game again since this thread is about him.

fquaye149
01-23-2008, 12:53 PM
i.e. ONLY ****ING HITTING.

Wrong. It considers what position a player plays and compares their value (using, yes, only hitting) over the value of a replacement player at THAT POSITION.

In other words, a SS who is as good a hitter as a LF will have a higher VORP because most SS's are worse hitters than most LF's.

Do you understand how VORP is a poor reflection of how good a hitter a player is FROM A STRICTLY HITTING STANDPOINT?


You started the spamfest by making a false claim about Bedard and dismissing the raw stats with "whatever." You also assume by me saying Dunn not being a 25 hitter means I think he strikes out too much and he sucks. Cut this line of talk out. I don't care who started it. We're talking about how good a hitter Dunn is. Clearly, from a pure-hitting standpoint (since you are so concerned about nitpicking statements) he is among the top 25 hitters in baseball


THEN after I list a long list of players I would take over Dunn, you come back comparing OPS's and IN THE SAME BREATH you mention how it's not really fair to compare OPS's of Ichiro to Dunn. Even more odd, you're gushing over EqA, but only talk about OPS in a direct comparison between players. What on earth are you talking about? I think you are confused. That must be the explanation, because if you're not confused, you are deliberately trying to distort the argument.


This thread isn't about Dunn, yet you have nothing better to do than list one BP stat, and compare another which you don't think is a fair tool to use and you did this AFTER you assume I thought Adam Dunn sucked.I made one offhand comment about Dunn before you freaked out and started calling me ill-informed. In no way was I trying to make the thread about Dunn. You did that by attacking my (well-founded) claim that Dunn was among the 25 best hitters in baseball. This is your mess. I'm just trying to clean it up.


You're better off trying to convince me how Bedard had a great 2006. Let's play that game again since this thread is about him.I said he had a great 2006 and 2007. Obviously "great" is debatable in terms of how he performed in 2006, but at the very least he had a solid 2006. He also had an undeniably great 2007.

The issue at hand was whether 2007 was a fluke. My point remains that his MORE THAN SOLID 2006 followed by an excellent 2007, along with the fact that his 2007 came as he entered a prime age group (27), coupled with the fact that from a non-statistical standpoint, his stuff and command were both great in 2007, along with being, at the least, very good in 2006, suggests that Bedard is almost certainly the real deal. Which was the point of the post before you freaked out because I lumped his 2006 season in with his 2007 season as "great" rather than saying "his 2006 was quite good, at the very least better than average, at best in the top 25 % of starting pitchers in MLB".

You done nitpicking?

sircaffey1
01-23-2008, 01:00 PM
I'm still trying to figure these out:

" Cabrera: 965 OPS 34 HR
Verdict: Probably better since he hits for a higher average, but a lot closer than you would expect, especially since weight is a concern for Cabrera and not for Dunn. Gets the edge b/c he is 24 not 27 (a very reluctant +1)"

" Hanley: 948 OPS 29 HR
Verdict: A tossup. Give it to Ramirez because of youth (though Dunn's TWENTY SEVEN HIMSELF) (+1)"

" Also you forgot Rollins (+1)"
----------------------------------------------------------
Miguel and Hanley hitting in one of the worst stadiums for hitters to start. Then saying it's a tossup for both of them, yet being so sure on Rollins when his OPS was .875 (in one of the best hitting parks). According to your evaluation, Rollins is one of the worst hitters on that list.

Weight is only an issue for Cabrera when it comes to staying at 3B. It has nothing to do with his future as a hitter. Dunn is 275 lbs. The best hitter in the history of the game was a tub of goo (the Babe).

fquaye149
01-23-2008, 01:08 PM
I'm still trying to figure these out:

" Cabrera: 965 OPS 34 HR
Verdict: Probably better since he hits for a higher average, but a lot closer than you would expect, especially since weight is a concern for Cabrera and not for Dunn. Gets the edge b/c he is 24 not 27 (a very reluctant +1)"

" Hanley: 948 OPS 29 HR
Verdict: A tossup. Give it to Ramirez because of youth (though Dunn's TWENTY SEVEN HIMSELF) (+1)"

" Also you forgot Rollins (+1)"
----------------------------------------------------------
Miguel and Hanley hitting in one of the worst stadiums for hitters to start. Then saying it's a tossup for both of them, yet being so sure on Rollins when his OPS was .875 (in one of the best hitting parks). According to your evaluation, Rollins is one of the worst hitters on that list.

that's true--I didn't look at Rollins's stats--just put him on there to throw Dorf a bone. I put Ramirez and Cabrera in the tossup category because their power #'s don't match Dunn's. You will notice I counted them in the "better than Dunn" category nevertheless.

My point wasn't to give a definitive view of who's a better hitter than whom, but rather to show it's not exactly "idiotic" to call Dunn one of the best hitters in baseball, since his numbers DO match up quite well with many of the great hitters in baseball

sircaffey1
01-23-2008, 01:15 PM
that's true--I didn't look at Rollins's stats--just put him on there to throw Dorf a bone. I put Ramirez and Cabrera in the tossup category because their power #'s don't match Dunn's. You will notice I counted them in the "better than Dunn" category nevertheless.

My point wasn't to give a definitive view of who's a better hitter than whom, but rather to show it's not exactly "idiotic" to call Dunn one of the best hitters in baseball, since his numbers DO match up quite well with many of the great hitters in baseball


What do you mean their power numbers don't match up? Dunn's SLG% was .554. Ramirez's was .562. Cabrera's was .565. Add into it that Dunn hits in a great hitter's park, and Dunn's power is the one that doesn't match up. Stick Dunn in Dolphin Stadium and he doesn't hit 40 HR. Power numbers are not just HR. Some parks are clearly more conducive to HR than others. They are clearly better hitters than Dunn.

fquaye149
01-23-2008, 01:29 PM
What do you mean their power numbers don't match up? Dunn's SLG% was .554. Ramirez's was .562. Cabrera's was .565. Add into it that Dunn hits in a great hitter's park, and Dunn's power is the one that doesn't match up. Stick Dunn in Dolphin Stadium and he doesn't hit 40 HR. Power numbers are not just HR. Some parks are clearly more conducive to HR than others. They are clearly better hitters than Dunn.

Did you miss the part where I gave them the inevitable edge over Dunn?

Look--I had like 30 hitters to look at and I had about 20 minutes to do it.

How does this change the fact that, ballpark or not, Dunn is among the best hitters in baseball?

sircaffey1
01-23-2008, 02:19 PM
Did you miss the part where I gave them the inevitable edge over Dunn?

Look--I had like 30 hitters to look at and I had about 20 minutes to do it.

How does this change the fact that, ballpark or not, Dunn is among the best hitters in baseball?

Just that you were underrating a lot of the players on that list and overrating Dunn just because he hit 40 HR. It's still questionable about whether he is one of the "best." It's tough to consider a hitter than is basically a glorified platoon player one of the best. Dunn is great vs RHP, but very poor vs LHP. To me at least, the best hitters don't have many gaping holes in their game like Dunn. Dunn has some very glaring deficiencies.

It's Time
01-23-2008, 07:40 PM
The Baltimore Sun is reporting Roberts likely will end up with he Cubs:rolleyes:. It's a good read and in it, MacPhail is hinting that he will indeed deal both Roberts and Bedard. The question is, does KW have better chips to deal then the Cubs?

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-orioles123,0,425490.story



To this point, trade talks have moved slowly for the admittedly deliberate MacPhail. The Chicago Cubs remain the likely landing spot for Roberts for a package that is expected to include pitcher Sean Gallagher and one of the Cubs' young outfielders. The two teams have discussed several scenarios, but have yet to agree on a package.

jabrch
01-23-2008, 07:46 PM
The question is, does KW have better chips to deal then the Cubs?

The answer is no.

The real question is will Hendry trade away his top prospects. He has a history of holding on to them. We know full well that Kenny will trade absolutely anyone - and some people multiple times. We don't have much left in the system - but if there is an opportunity - I am sure KW would pull the trigger...

It's Time
01-23-2008, 07:47 PM
The answer is no.

The real question is will Hendry trade away his top prospects. He has a history of holding on to them. We know full well that Kenny will trade absolutely anyone - and some people multiple times. We don't have much left in the system - but if there is an opportunity - I am sure KW would pull the trigger...

Who are these top prospects of the Cubs you speak of? Pie?

jabrch
01-23-2008, 07:57 PM
Who are these top prospects of the Cubs you speak of? Pie?

The Cubs and the Os are talking about Hill, Pie, Colvin, Marshall, Gallagher, Ceda, Veal and Hart. Murton has also been mentioned.

All we have left to trade in terms of pitching is Broadway, Egbert and McCulloch. None of them are as good as Hill or Marshall - and probably not Gallagher or Veal either. We have nobody as highly rated as Colvin or Pie in CF. If we did - they'd be our CF this year.

It's Time
01-23-2008, 08:00 PM
http://www.cubshub.com/postimages/pictures/426.jpg
"Perhaps I should thrown in Eric Patterson, that way Corey and his brother can play on the same team. That would get this deal done"!

sox1970
01-23-2008, 08:08 PM
The Cubs and the Os are talking about Hill, Pie, Colvin, Marshall, Gallagher, Ceda, Veal and Hart. Murton has also been mentioned.

All we have left to trade in terms of pitching is Broadway, Egbert and McCulloch. None of them are as good as Hill or Marshall - and probably not Gallagher or Veal either. We have nobody as highly rated as Colvin or Pie in CF. If we did - they'd be our CF this year.

If it meant getting Bedard, I'd trade Danks and Egbert. To get Bedard and Roberts, I'd throw in Masset, Sisco, John Shelby Jr, Juan Uribe, Brian Anderson.

jabrch
01-23-2008, 08:13 PM
If it meant getting Bedard, I'd trade Danks and Egbert. To get Bedard and Roberts, I'd throw in Masset, Sisco, John Shelby Jr, Juan Uribe, Brian Anderson.


I hope that was deep pinkish teal...

Bedard would cost more than Danks and Egbert and the rest of that stuff doesn't get us Roberts.

sox1970
01-23-2008, 08:16 PM
I hope that was deep pinkish teal...

Bedard would cost more than Danks and Egbert and the rest of that stuff doesn't get us Roberts.

No, I meant for both. But keep going--Donny Lucy, Chris Getz, ....

champagne030
01-23-2008, 09:21 PM
No, I meant for both. But keep going--Donny Lucy, Chris Getz, ....

I thought the Cubs were offering Murton and Gallagher/Marshall for Roberts?

That's like offering BA and Floyd/Broadway.

We shouldn't have enough in our system to acquire Bedard. Who knows what it would take to get McFail to bite though.......

jabrch
01-23-2008, 10:02 PM
No, I meant for both. But keep going--Donny Lucy, Chris Getz, ....

The pieces that MIGHT have gotten us Bedard are in Oakland now.

SoxNation05
01-23-2008, 10:05 PM
The pieces that MIGHT have gotten us Bedard are in Oakland now.
I wonder if DLS, Gio, Sweeney, Brodway and Uribe would have gotten us Bedard. I like Swish but I think that would have been the better move if possible.

Daver
01-23-2008, 10:08 PM
Just say no to dealing with Peter Angelos, he's a whack job.