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View Full Version : .266/.327 with 30 SBs? Owens has had a nice season


jabrch
09-25-2007, 10:49 PM
I'll take that for his first partial season. The kid has room to grow into being a quality leadoff hitter if he continues to develop.

Noneck
09-25-2007, 11:01 PM
I'll take that for his first partial season. The kid has room to grow into being a quality leadoff hitter if he continues to develop.

Is that good enough for him to be next years leadoff hitter and starting center fielder?

Patrick134
09-25-2007, 11:11 PM
Is that good enough for him to be next years leadoff hitter and starting center fielder?


That's not a decision you even make yet. Winter ball and spring training first.

Dan Mega
09-25-2007, 11:12 PM
His glove in CF seems OK but his arm leaves much to be desired. I'd wish he would get more walks too. The average and OBP are solid for a youngster.

I'm thinking he good be a good bench guy.

upperdeckusc
09-25-2007, 11:18 PM
Is that good enough for him to be next years leadoff hitter and starting center fielder?


if it were up to me, i'd have fields at 3b, owens in LF, have a leadoff hitter come from the SS position, and have owens bat 9th. if you can get a .250-280 avg, a .310-.340 obp, and about 40-55 sb's from your 9th hitter, i'd absolutely take it. but, again, a few things have to happen to make that come true.......mainly a leadoff hitting SS coming to the southside.

Tragg
09-25-2007, 11:18 PM
I'll take that for his first partial season. The kid has room to grow into being a quality leadoff hitter if he continues to develop.
He doesn't walk. Slap hitters like him need to walk. His season average is skewed with September ball, which naturally will inflate averages (face weaker pitching and defense). Ozzie and Walker refused to walk as hitters, so I doubt he'll learn under this staff.

.350 OBP makes him average. ..380 OBP makes him really good. His .327 will kill this team next year.
And then there's the defense - we have a really weak arm with him in CF.

JB98
09-25-2007, 11:19 PM
Owens is a fourth or fifth outfielder on a championship team.

upperdeckusc
09-25-2007, 11:24 PM
He doesn't walk. Slap hitters like him need to walk. His season average is skewed with September ball, which naturally will inflate averages (face weaker pitching and defense). Ozzie and Walker refused to walk as hitters, so I doubt he'll learn under this staff.

.350 OBP makes him average. ..380 OBP makes him really good. His .327 will kill this team next year, as it has for much of this year (although it was a price worth paying).
And then there's the defense - we have a really weak arm with him in CF.

And the other thing is Ozzie has given fellow slap hitting Owens an unabated chance. PUt him in leadoff and left him alone. He gets the most at bats on the team and gets protected in the lineup. Most young hitters aren't so fortunate.
HIm at leadoff next year is a huge gamble.

*****....
if we want to be a championship team, should he leadoff? no. would i take him in LF where a CF can help him out, in an OF that will provide the power that he doesnt provide, and giving me 40-55 sb's from the 9 hole in our lineup? yes.

SABRSox
09-25-2007, 11:24 PM
Owens is a fourth or fifth outfielder on a championship team.

Yup. That about says it all. The White Sox won't finish above 3rd with Owens as the starting CF, let alone their leadoff hitter.

Hitmen77
09-25-2007, 11:27 PM
Is that good enough for him to be next years leadoff hitter and starting center fielder?

I hope not. I like Owens, but I want a veteran CF. I think Owens would make a very solid 4th OF.

Noneck
09-25-2007, 11:35 PM
That's not a decision you even make yet. Winter ball and spring training first.

Incorrect, the leadoff hitter and starting center fielder has to be addressed
prior to spring training.

JB98
09-25-2007, 11:37 PM
Incorrect, the leadoff hitter and starting center fielder has to be addressed
prior to spring training.

I agree. I feel like we have been in "tryout" mode all season, especially in the bullpen but also with position players. That lends itself to a 68-89 record.

oeo
09-25-2007, 11:46 PM
He doesn't walk. Slap hitters like him need to walk. His season average is skewed with September ball, which naturally will inflate averages (face weaker pitching and defense). Ozzie and Walker refused to walk as hitters, so I doubt he'll learn under this staff.

I haven't been a supporter of Owens, but I'll chime in on this one. He has been taking walks, and whether he does it in September or April, it shouldn't matter. You're telling me that the Indians, Tigers, and Angels were throwing weak pitchers at us in the middle of a pennant race? :?:

My biggest gripe with Owens right now is the lack of XBH. But he's been surprising me with his quick development up here, so maybe he can improve upon that.

With Owens, Fields, and Richar, maybe we should build for 2009. I'm probably going to get killed for saying it, but it might be best for the organization's future.

Trade Crede and Garland...hopefully Garland can bring us a good young SS, like Hu from the Dodgers. Put Owens in left, sign Torii Hunter to play center, put Fields back at third, keep Richar at 2B. Now, we could either be pretty bad again next year, or everything could turn out right and we could contend. Either way, it sets us up better in the years to come (especially in '09), rather than signing guys to play CF and SS, as well as the bullpen.

And realistically, at least one of Contreras/Garland is going to have to go, and I just don't see contending with two youngsters in the rotation. So what are we going to do, trade the young talent we have for another veteran SP? We did that already, and it net us a couple of good seasons, now this one. Give the young guys some experience and then make a run for it in '09.

Just something to think about...

Tragg
09-25-2007, 11:57 PM
*****....
if we want to be a championship team, should he leadoff? no. would i take him in LF where a CF can help him out, in an OF that will provide the power that he doesnt provide, and giving me 40-55 sb's from the 9 hole in our lineup? yes.
You want your left fielder or center fielder, an offensive position, batting in the 9 hole? Indeed, *****.
He isn't going to get 40-55 steals in the nine hole; he isn't going to hit what he hits in the 1 hole in the 9 hole because he doesn't get the same plate protection.
WE loaded this team up with hackers and slap hitters this year and the result was baseball's worst offense. Please, let's not repeat this failed lesson.

peeonwrigley
09-25-2007, 11:58 PM
The White Sox need a rock solid solution at CF & SS going into next season. The way I see it, trades or free agency have to address those positions.

Owens has a spot on this team, but its not as everyday CF/leadoff.

Tragg
09-26-2007, 12:10 AM
I haven't been a supporter of Owens, but I'll chime in on this one. He has been taking walks, and whether he does it in September or April, it shouldn't matter. You're telling me that the Indians, Tigers, and Angels were throwing weak pitchers at us in the middle of a pennant race? :?:

My biggest gripe with Owens right now is the lack of XBH. But he's been surprising me with his quick development up here, so maybe he can improve upon that.
His walk rate is about 8%. That's not very good. Yea, he lacks extra base hits, but that's never going to happen - I take that as a given. So, he needs a particularly high OBP.
And, please, the talent is watered down in September - we may have played a series or 2 against a team in a legit race, but after that, we played teams who had all but clinched, were all but done or were the Royals and Twins. Owens has made a 20 point gain in OBP this month -yea, I'm leery. Is .340 OBP with a weak arm what we really want out of CF?

Richar, who is more than a free-swining slap hitter, not-surprisingly hasn't had Fields and Thome protection like Owens has. Ozzie has Richar batting between Uribe, Cintron or Owens. He's been in a much tougher batting spot.

chisoxmike
09-26-2007, 12:16 AM
I will be really pissed if Jerry Owens is on the team next year.

upperdeckusc
09-26-2007, 12:20 AM
You want your left fielder or center fielder, an offensive position, batting in the 9 hole? Indeed, *****.
He isn't going to get 40-55 steals in the nine hole; he isn't going to hit what he hits in the 1 hole in the 9 hole because he doesn't get the same plate protection.
WE loaded this team up with hackers and slap hitters this year and the result was baseball's worst offense. Please, let's not repeat this failed lesson.

im pretty sure all positions are offensive positions, as well as defensive positions. does that mean we should resign uribe to a 4 yr extension because we all should overlook his ****ty hitting because his position isnt an "offensive position" ?? if we can have torii in CF and dye in RF, i have no problem with LF being a speedy guy low in the order. and yes, he would still have good protection IF WE GET A GOOD LEADOFF HITTER. in my other posts, i said this all would only be possible if we could get a leadoff hitter preferably out of the SS position. at the end of innings and the end of games, when its close, their gonna go after the 9 hitter cuz theyd rather end the inning right there and not let the leadoff guy coming up. if owens got 500+ ab's in LF and in the 9 hole, i'd bet my life he has more than 40 sb's. now with all that said, i agree with the person that suggested us getting Hu from the dodgers. he's for real. that or get furcal so the dodgers can play Hu and maybe the dodgers will pay some of the salary, depending on what we give them in return. its gonna be an interesting offseason...

upperdeckusc
09-26-2007, 12:22 AM
His walk rate is about 8%. That's not very good. Yea, he lacks extra base hits, but that's never going to happen - I take that as a given. So, he needs a particularly high OBP.
And, please, the talent is watered down in September - we may have played a series or 2 against a team in a legit race, but after that, we played teams who had all but clinched, were all but done or were the Royals and Twins. Owens has made a 20 point gain in OBP this month -yea, I'm leery. Is .340 OBP with a weak arm what we really want out of CF?

Richar, who is more than a free-swining slap hitter, not-surprisingly hasn't had Fields and Thome protection like Owens has. Ozzie has Richar batting between Uribe, Cintron or Owens. He's been in a much tougher batting spot.

so that's why fields won AL player of the week. it all makes sense now.....

voodoochile
09-26-2007, 12:44 AM
His walk rate is about 8%. That's not very good. Yea, he lacks extra base hits, but that's never going to happen - I take that as a given. So, he needs a particularly high OBP.
And, please, the talent is watered down in September - we may have played a series or 2 against a team in a legit race, but after that, we played teams who had all but clinched, were all but done or were the Royals and Twins. Owens has made a 20 point gain in OBP this month -yea, I'm leery. Is .340 OBP with a weak arm what we really want out of CF?

Richar, who is more than a free-swining slap hitter, not-surprisingly hasn't had Fields and Thome protection like Owens has. Ozzie has Richar batting between Uribe, Cintron or Owens. He's been in a much tougher batting spot.

Just to be clear, you do realize that 8% is actually 80 points as we are talking about batting averages. The best in the game only do it about 12% of the time and those guys are normally feared for their power who get a bunch of IBB and/or get crappy pitches to hit because they simply kill fastballs. 80 points is probably right smack dab in the middle of the pack.

If Owens can hit .280 he'll have an OBP around .360 and that's fine in anybody's book. It will make him a slightly above average leadoff hitter or a spectacular 9th place hitter. If he can add on 40 SB he'd be just fine.

I also think it's unfair to judge his career stats by the first 300 AB of his major league career. Has he shown improvement? Definitely. Has his average risen as the year has progressed? Again, definitely. In fact he's at or near his season high at the moment for both BA and OBP. Does that suggest he might have even better numbers in the future? I would think so, but there are no guarantees. He's clearly more comfortable and it seems to be showing in the results he is achieving. I don't seem to recall anyone having a problem with Pods slap hitting style leading off in 2005. When did he hit his first HR of the season again? I simply cannot seem to recall the exact moment it happened.

Yes, I'd prefer he play LF and bat 9th next year too, but that means the Sox have to find a taker for Crede and Sign a CF who can bat leadoff, because right now they don't have a leadoff hitter next season other than Owens (which is a chuck and duck maneuver I admit) and doesn't leave a slot open for Fields. If they sign a leadoff/CF and re-sign and keep Crede than Fields simply has to be the starting LF next year, because his bat is too freaking good to send back to AAA, period.

The good news is that it's nice to have players up and coming who actually instill enough confidence to be having these debates. The mere fact that we are even talking about it speaks volumes for the talent and work ethic, Owens, Richar and Fields have shown this season and there's nothing wrong with having too much talent...

SABRSox
09-26-2007, 12:52 AM
Nobody's saying that Owens doesn't deserve to be with the team. He does, as the team's 4th OF. But let's not be delusional, he doesn't have the arm to play CF, and he doesn't get on base enough to lead off. Another year of him doing both is not going to turn this team around.

Owens is a fine role player, and there's nothing wrong with that.

oeo
09-26-2007, 01:12 AM
I will be really pissed if Jerry Owens is on the team next year.

So be pissed. You can't ignore the fact that he actually is improving. It's not just BS talk from Hawk and DJ. He's actually having better ABs and putting more wood on the ball, too.

And this is how his career has gone at each level. He struggled when he first got there, and then very quickly improved and adjusted. He could be the second coming of Pods, which I wouldn't complain about. If Pods could stay healthy, I'd have no problem bringing him back next year.

It could very well be that he's our best option to lead off next year. If that means we still have to watch another year of him improving, so be it, I think.

Navarro's Talent
09-26-2007, 01:26 AM
Owens was fine for the most part. The stolen bases were great, especially considering how bad the Sox were this season at that before he came up.

I still think KW is looking elsewhere, though, for 2008's starting CF'er.

AJ Hellraiser
09-26-2007, 01:32 AM
Count me in being in the corner of Jerry Owens... I just feel like after working some things out in winter ball and spring training the difference between him and say, coco crisp (starting CF on the best team in baseball) will be minimal...

the less holes we have the more money we can allocate to a certain position (i.e. shelling out $27 mill for A-Rod but signing little else)

I've hesitated to make out my 2008 lineup in other threads but would this be so bad?

1--Owens
2--Fields
3--Thome
4--Konerko
5--A-Rod
6--Dye
7--Crede
8--AJ
9--Richar

chaerulez
09-26-2007, 02:00 AM
If he had more power a low OBP would be acceptable, but he has none. Like others have said, .320 OBP and 40 steals from a #9 hitter I would take. Not from the leadoff.

JB98
09-26-2007, 02:19 AM
Count me in being in the corner of Jerry Owens... I just feel like after working some things out in winter ball and spring training the difference between him and say, coco crisp (starting CF on the best team in baseball) will be minimal...

the less holes we have the more money we can allocate to a certain position (i.e. shelling out $27 mill for A-Rod but signing little else)

I've hesitated to make out my 2008 lineup in other threads but would this be so bad?

1--Owens
2--Fields
3--Thome
4--Konerko
5--A-Rod
6--Dye
7--Crede
8--AJ
9--Richar

1. I'll be shocked if we sign A-Rod.
2. If we do, he's batting third.

delben91
09-26-2007, 08:00 AM
I will be really pissed if Jerry Owens is on the team next year.

Even if it's as a 4th or 5th outfielder?

Personally, I think slotting Owens in the 9 slot would work out great for both him and the Sox. That said, if the Sox upgrade at CF and SS and keep Crede (forcing Fields to LF), then I would have no problem with a guy like Owens on the bench. He'd be a good defensive replacement in the late innings for Fields in LF, and if you ever needed to steal a base to get into scoring position(which considering the Sox' bunting ability, might be more often than on most teams), then who better?

So, I can't say I'd be pissed if he was on the team. Disappointed if he was in the starting lineup, sure, but pissed if he was the 25th man? Hardly.

ondafarm
09-26-2007, 09:03 AM
Over the last 30 days, Owens' numbers look like .330-.383-.411 and he is tied for the team lead in walks with 13. That pencils out at a 12% walk rate. Those are acceptable numbers for a leadoff hitter. Oh and one thing I keep seeing here that's in error. Owens is not a slap hitter. That's a technique he should be working on in winter ball but has clearly not mastered yet.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 09:37 AM
He doesn't walk.

27 walks in his first 334 ABs is actually not terrible. I don't believe your assessment that he doesn't walk is correct. He had a .284/.364 line in Charlotte after a .331/.393 line in Birmingham. Isolate out the walks to .06 or .08 - both of which are acceptable for a leadoff hitter, even moreso for a leadoff hitter in one of the worst offenses in all of baseball.

If he continues to develop, and can raise his batting average by 20 points, while keeping his walk rate the same, his OBP would be just fine. Owens problem isn't that he doesn't walk. It's that in his first 330 ABs (moreso in his first 200 ABs) he just didn't HIT.

The biggest flaw I see in Owens is his arm. And I'm willing to overlook that if Jerry is the weakest link in our starting lineup next year. There's no way I'd even think about giving Hunter 5/75 or Rowand 5/60 or something silly like that with Jerry Owens set to make 350K next year. I'd focus our economic resouorces on SS, 2B (if we decide Richar isn't ready) and the bullpen.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 09:38 AM
Yup. That about says it all. The White Sox won't finish above 3rd with Owens as the starting CF, let alone their leadoff hitter.

That is completely ridiculous.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 09:41 AM
WE loaded this team up with hackers and slap hitters

You continue to perpetuate this myth. It is completely untrue. Our 3/4/5 stunk the first half of the year. That's why our offense was terrible. Our 1/2 got injured early. That's why our offense was terrible. Our starting 3B and our backup 3B were both lost for the year. That's why our offense was terrible. We didn't "load the team with hackers" any differently than we had the two previous seasons.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 09:51 AM
His walk rate is about 8%. That's not very good.

What player with 30SB potential has a walk rate that is greater than 8%?

Jose Reyes
Brian Roberts
David Wright
Grady Sizemore

What player with 60 SB potential?
Reyes

Tragg - I respect you as someone who understands statistics as they relate to baseball - unless you really insist that 8% is not a good walk rate for a leadoff hitter. He isn't Rickey Henderson (12%) - but what the hell standard do you hold baseball players to if 8% is not an acceptable walk rate for a leadoff hitter on the worst team in baseball. For the record, an 8% walk rate is higher than Lou Brock (5%) and Vince Coleman (6%).

So lets' be honest here. Your problem isn't Jerry Owens walk rate. Your problem is that you don't believe that there is a role for a "lead off hitter" as the game has defined it over the course of time. That's fine - it is wrong - but fine. But don't couch it as complaining about Jerry Owens walk rate if the only leadoff hitters in the game who would be "better" using your standard are Reyes, Roberts and Sizemore.

palehozenychicty
09-26-2007, 09:52 AM
I haven't been a supporter of Owens, but I'll chime in on this one. He has been taking walks, and whether he does it in September or April, it shouldn't matter. You're telling me that the Indians, Tigers, and Angels were throwing weak pitchers at us in the middle of a pennant race? :?:

My biggest gripe with Owens right now is the lack of XBH. But he's been surprising me with his quick development up here, so maybe he can improve upon that.

With Owens, Fields, and Richar, maybe we should build for 2009. I'm probably going to get killed for saying it, but it might be best for the organization's future.

Trade Crede and Garland...hopefully Garland can bring us a good young SS, like Hu from the Dodgers. Put Owens in left, sign Torii Hunter to play center, put Fields back at third, keep Richar at 2B. Now, we could either be pretty bad again next year, or everything could turn out right and we could contend. Either way, it sets us up better in the years to come (especially in '09), rather than signing guys to play CF and SS, as well as the bullpen.

And realistically, at least one of Contreras/Garland is going to have to go, and I just don't see contending with two youngsters in the rotation. So what are we going to do, trade the young talent we have for another veteran SP? We did that already, and it net us a couple of good seasons, now this one. Give the young guys some experience and then make a run for it in '09.

Just something to think about...


Been preaching the same thing. I think '09 is a more reasonable goal for the pinnacle of MLB than '08. It's too hard to fill the level of needs the Sox have in one offseason. They're too old and slow through the lineup and the pen, well enough has been said.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 09:58 AM
he doesn't get on base enough to lead off.

In his first 330 ABs, he has looked pretty good. In his most recent 100 ABs, he has looked even better. I don't see any way you can be watching him play and not see that he has the potential to get on base enough to lead off.


If he had more power a low OBP would be acceptable, but he has none. Like others have said, .320 OBP and 40 steals from a #9 hitter I would take. Not from the leadoff.

If he had more power, he wouldn't have a low OBP. What the hell are you talking about? and we aren't talking about a .320 OBP. Look at him since July 4.

Over the last 30 days, Owens' numbers look like .330-.383-.411 and he is tied for the team lead in walks with 13. That pencils out at a 12% walk rate. Those are acceptable numbers for a leadoff hitter.

Yes - acceptable - as I said in my post, equivalent to RICKEY ****ING HENDERSON. Acceptable - yes...

SBSoxFan
09-26-2007, 10:19 AM
JIf Owens can hit .280 he'll have an OBP around .360 and that's fine in anybody's book. It will make him a slightly above average leadoff hitter or a spectacular 9th place hitter. If he can add on 40 SB he'd be just fine.


Owens is hitting .285 since his second call-up, i.e., since July 3rd. And I agree he's better suited for LF because of his arm. However, I find it disturbing that so many posters have zero hope in him improving.

palehozenychicty
09-26-2007, 10:40 AM
Owens is hitting .285 since his second call-up, i.e., since July 3rd. And I agree he's better suited for LF because of his arm. However, I find it disturbing that so many posters have zero hope in him improving.


They all want Rowand and/or Anderson back.

voodoochile
09-26-2007, 10:49 AM
Owens is hitting .285 since his second call-up, i.e., since July 3rd. And I agree he's better suited for LF because of his arm. However, I find it disturbing that so many posters have zero hope in him improving.

Yeah, I don't get that either. His speed and ability to get on base at least at a major league average pace are worth something. In fact if he can match his post AS production of .277/.341, 25 SB, 5 CS in 262 AB, he's the best option the Sox currently have for a leadoff hitter. Now if they can go sign someone who is an improvement on those numbers, great, but right now there's no one else on the team more suited to the specific role of getting on base and being able to steal once they get there.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 11:10 AM
Yeah, I don't get that either. His speed and ability to get on base at least at a major league average pace are worth something. In fact if he can match his post AS production of .277/.341, 25 SB, 5 CS in 262 AB, he's the best option the Sox currently have for a leadoff hitter. Now if they can go sign someone who is an improvement on those numbers, great, but right now there's no one else on the team more suited to the specific role of getting on base and being able to steal once they get there.


I'll take it one step further...

List the more productive MLB Leadoff hitters in 2007 than just Owens if he'd NOT IMPROVE AT ALL over his post AS 2007.

Now take anyone off that list earning over $10mm

It's a small crowd - it is headlined by All-Stars like Reyes and Sizemore - and it would have very few players on it who are available to us.

Just a status check - How's Chris Young doing? .239/.298/.479 with 32 HR. That's great - 32 nice ABs and an otherwise completely crappy stat line. Hooray Beer!

INSox56
09-26-2007, 11:16 AM
You want your left fielder or center fielder, an offensive position, batting in the 9 hole? Indeed, *****.
He isn't going to get 40-55 steals in the nine hole; he isn't going to hit what he hits in the 1 hole in the 9 hole because he doesn't get the same plate protection.
WE loaded this team up with hackers and slap hitters this year and the result was baseball's worst offense. Please, let's not repeat this failed lesson.We had Anderson in the 9 hole last year and we had more than enough offense for a team that should have won the WS (given the teams in the playoffs) if our pitching didn't forget how to do its job.

kjhanson
09-26-2007, 11:21 AM
He doesn't walk. Slap hitters like him need to walk. His season average is skewed with September ball, which naturally will inflate averages (face weaker pitching and defense). Ozzie and Walker refused to walk as hitters, so I doubt he'll learn under this staff.

.350 OBP makes him average. ..380 OBP makes him really good. His .327 will kill this team next year.
And then there's the defense - we have a really weak arm with him in CF.

For seemingly the 100th time this season, I will come to Jerry Owens' defense. Because for about the 100th time, someone is spitting some nonsense about this kid.

Here's a list of the starting pitchers the Sox have faced this year. Please tell me how this "staff" is any weaker than any other one-month period. With the exception of maybe Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Kyle Davies, this is actually a pretty impressive collection of pitchers.

What has he done off these pitchers?
.305/.410
10.5% BB ratio
10 stolen bases (68 for 650 PAs)

Brian Bannister KCR x2
Kevin Slowey (4-0) MIN
Scott Backer MIN
Johan Santana MIN x2
Zack Grienke KCR
Gil Meche KCR
Kyle Davies KCR
Joe Saunders LAA
Jered Weaver LAA
Bartolo Colon LAA
Jake Westbrook CLE x2
Paul Byrd (15-6) CLE x2
Matt Garza MIN
Carlos Silva MIN
Chad Durbin DET
Kenny Rogers DET
Jeremy Bonderman DET
Fausto Carmona CLE
Kevin Millwood TEX

There is concern over the lack of power, but as I've proven in a past post, that becomes negated when someone has speed like Jerry does. If a real solid player hits 40 doubles and steals 20 bases, he'll "start from second" about 60 times over the course of the year. If Jerry steals 50 bags on the year... well, you can presumably do the math. Of course, the counter-argument is that the extra power (40 doubles) will drive in runners from 1st, whereas the SBs will not. While that's true, this becomes less of an issue when hitting in the leadoff spot.

Finally, his defense. He's got a bad arm and doesn't read the ball extremely well off the bat. None-the-less, I've never seen him not get to a ball that someone with a good jump would have reasonably gotten to. His speed has been a real asset thus far. I've been an advocate of moving him to LF because of his arm.

In summation, rather than arbitrarily throwing words out there about inflated September batting averages because of poor pitching and defense, take a moment to do a little research. Your weak pitching argument is bunk, and I'd love for you to do the study on the quantification of bad September defense leading to gross batting averages.

As an aside, Ichiro's OCT/SEP BA is 9 points lower than his career average.
Rickey Henderson's is 20 points lower.
Tim Raines' is 13 points higher.
Jose Reyes' is 25 points lower.
Jimmy Rollins' is 14 points higher.

I think you can see that there isn't much of a pattern. Therefore, rather than attributing the kid's success to luck, why not take it as a positive sign of improvement?

TomBradley72
09-26-2007, 11:23 AM
Jerry Owens is shaping up to be a nice "4th Outfielder"...a left handed alternative to a right handed hitting LF (Fields for 2008) or CF (hopefully Hunter or Rowand).

Separate note...I love all the Chris Young "bashing" on this site. When's the last time we had a 24 year old CF putting together a 30/30 season? Sure his BA/OBP is low...but strike outs typically go down with experience and walks go up. Even with the low average...his numbers this year would represent one of the best seasons ever by a White Sox CF. If Chris Young's season isn't impressive than neither is Josh Fields (who turns 25 in December).

INSox56
09-26-2007, 11:30 AM
Jerry Owens is shaping up to be a nice "4th Outfielder"...a left handed alternative to a right handed hitting LF (Fields for 2008) or CF (hopefully Hunter or Rowand).

Separate note...I love all the Chris Young "bashing" on this site. When's the last time we had a 24 year old CF putting together a 30/30 season? Sure his BA/OBP is low...but strike outs typically go down with experience and walks go up. Even with the low average...his numbers this year would represent one of the best seasons ever by a White Sox CF. If Chris Young's season isn't impressive than neither is Josh Fields (who turns 25 in December).However, also against arguably weaker NL pitching...

I'm all for Fields at 3b and Owens in LF, then going out and spending that money on SS and CF with Richar at 2nd. As mentioned previously, we may not be able to compete next year, so why not continue their development (which is progessing nicely already). Thankfully to Richar doing well, Fields obviously doing well, and Owens showing good things, we MAY JUST YET become a younger, better team that doesn't rely on old slow veterans.

TomBradley72
09-26-2007, 11:36 AM
However, also against arguably weaker NL pitching...

That's a real stretch...so Prince Fielder's 50 HR's are "tainted" due to the quality of NL pitching?

jabrch
09-26-2007, 11:38 AM
I think you can see that there isn't much of a pattern. Therefore, rather than attributing the kid's success to luck, why not take it as a positive sign of improvement?

Because that wouldn't fit into the propellerhead credo that a guy who doesn't have power, and doesn't hit .300 can't be a good baseball player.

These are people who would tell you that Juan Pierre is a bad leadoff hitter. These are people who would tell you that it made perfect sense to have Matt Stairs and Jeremy Giambi lead off because they'd have 6 more walks over the course of the season than some other leadoff guy might - regardless of the fact that they have no speed.

There is a new archetype out there of what a hitter should do. It has been copied to not only cover what a middle of the order hitter should do (where it makes sense) down to what a #1/#2 hitter should do (where it is sesnseless).

If Owens hits .280 with a 7% walk rate, that gets him to .280/.350 and over the course of a season, he projects to about 60+ SBs. That's projecting nearly no improvement (and maybe even some regression) over what Owens has done since July 5th. If we can get that productivity in the leadoff spot from a guy making the league minimum, I would be thrilled.

soxinem1
09-26-2007, 11:45 AM
Though he seemed to have better reads on the ball, we had Lance Johnson in CF for more than six seasons with a crap arm. He was NOT a lead off hitter, but dangerous as a number two or nine. He made great contact, but like OWens (thus far anyway) he could not draw walks.

Lance didn't have a lot of power, but he hit a decent amount of doubles and a ton of triples. So at least he brought more offensive tools to the game than Owens has.

My biggest positive on Owens is his SB percentage. For not even knowing the pitchers, he has been very sucessful. He should get even better.

Remember, we had Podsednik in LF with less than 30 RBI's, barely no extra-base pop, and a below-average arm. Result: A World Series title.

Maybe LF is more like the spot for him.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 12:00 PM
Separate note...I love all the Chris Young "bashing" on this site.

Sure his BA/OBP is low...

No - it is not "LOW". It is amongst the worst in the league of everyday players.

but strike outs typically go down with experience and walks go up.

He has NEVER shown that he put the bat on the ball at any level. Strikeouts go down and walks go up if you are a good hitter. Chris Young does nothing other than hit HRs and steal bases.

Even with the low average...his numbers this year would represent one of the best seasons ever by a White Sox CF.

In fantasy baseball - yes. In real baseball - not even top 10.


If Chris Young's season isn't impressive than neither is Josh Fields (who turns 25 in December).

That's untrue. Fields has a higher average, a higher OBP, a higher SLG%, a higher HR%, and he has improved consistently as he has had more playing time, since being called up on June 5th. Young has had a great fantasy baseball season with 30/30. But 30/30 is crap if it comes with a sub .240 average, a sub .300 obp, and if it shows absolutely no improvement over 550 ABs starting on Opening Day going all the way through the end of the season.

We have a guy who hit .225/.290 last year. We sent him down to the minors because that sucked. a few HRs and SBs don't neutralize how poor Young is at hitting or getting on base. Either way - walk more, hit more, whatever. But Young is a career .267 hitter in the minors. That projects...crapily to the majors. I was trying to find a line of a major league player who Young reminds me of - and it is hard. It's hard to be that athletic, have that much power, be that fast and still suck that much.

I found this...
.236/.302/.478 averaging about 30 HRs per season, but with no speed. That's Dave Kingman.

There's Mike Cameron - but that would require 20 pts more in batting average and 50 points more in OBP - things that Young has never proven in the minors to be any good at.

Why do people bash Chris Young? Mostly because before the season we were told that he was going to be so great that we'd regret dealing him forever for a piece of junk like Javy. That - and because Chris Young is a bad hitter unless you are in a 4X4 Fantasy League where you can hide his poor average, low OBP and his failure to be a significant run scorer.

Noneck
09-26-2007, 12:01 PM
The Sox have to roll the dice at some positions next year. (center field and 2nd base) The financial resources and tradeable players of worth will not be there to fill all the needed slots. If they can fix the bullpen, get a quality ss (hopefully one that possibly could lead off) and have 4 experienced quality starters, Owens could be their cf. But if he happens not to pan out they will have real problems. No other choice tho, taking chances like this is the only way the Sox can be competitive next year.

goon
09-26-2007, 12:01 PM
Jerry Owens is shaping up to be a nice "4th Outfielder"...a left handed alternative to a right handed hitting LF (Fields for 2008) or CF (hopefully Hunter or Rowand).

Separate note...I love all the Chris Young "bashing" on this site. When's the last time we had a 24 year old CF putting together a 30/30 season? Sure his BA/OBP is low...but strike outs typically go down with experience and walks go up. Even with the low average...his numbers this year would represent one of the best seasons ever by a White Sox CF. If Chris Young's season isn't impressive than neither is Josh Fields (who turns 25 in December).


Chris Young has 32 HR's because he swings for the fence most of the time. I wouldn't make an argument about NL having weaker pitching, (though I believe that's true, Young's power is for real however)but considering we have Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, possibly Joe Crede and now Josh Fields who can all replicate that kind of power and then some, I don't even see what Chris Young has to do with a conversation about Jerry Owens... I'd rather have a guy like Owens at the top of the order trying to get on base and mess with the pitcher, so he can steal bases or have others knock him in. Who gives a **** about a lead-off hitter hitting solo home runs?

jabrch
09-26-2007, 12:10 PM
Who gives a **** about a lead-off hitter hitting solo home runs?

Soriano makes $17mm a year to do it...

TomBradley72
09-26-2007, 12:16 PM
That's untrue. Fields has a higher average, a higher OBP, a higher SLG%, a higher HR%, and he has improved consistently as he has had more playing time, since being called up on June 5th. Young has had a great fantasy baseball season with 30/30. But 30/30 is crap if it comes with a sub .240 average, a sub .300 obp, and if it shows absolutely no improvement over 550 ABs starting on Opening Day going all the way through the end of the season.

Young: .476 SLG/.239 BA/.298 OBP
Fields: .489 SLG/.249 BA/.312 OBP

I don't think there's a real difference..they are about the same age (actually Fields is a year older)...add defense to the equation (he's been a work horse for the DBacks...144 games) on top of the 30/30 production in his first full year in the majors (he's in the top 3 for team leadership in most offensive categories on a post season contending team)...I think Young is headed towards a solid major league career. My point isn't that Young is a perfect player..but the bashing of him seems more like defensiveness of the trade than fact based opinion. If he was putting up these numbers in a White Sox uniform no one would be ripping him.

Cuck_The_Fubs
09-26-2007, 12:22 PM
Owens = Next Juan Pierre. Hands down.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 12:23 PM
If he was putting up these numbers in a White Sox uniform no one would be ripping him.

That's ridiculous. If he were hitting sub .240 and obp sub .300, we'd be DESTROYING him. If we passed up on a front of the rotation starter to keep him, it would be even worse. Look at all the BA bashing that goes on. Look at all the Uribe bashing that goes on. (Uribe hits/obp about 10 pts lower than Young, but plays solid D [in general - this year has been the worst he has had with the glove] at the most important position on the field)

If Young couldn't hit here, he'd be trashed.

Keep in mind - Young had all season to do it. Fields just came up in June when Crede went down. Fields improved as time went on - Chris Young did not.

spiffie
09-26-2007, 12:26 PM
I'd rather have a guy like Owens at the top of the order trying to get on base and mess with the pitcher, so he can steal bases or have others knock him in. Who gives a **** about a lead-off hitter hitting solo home runs?
While I am willing to accept that there can be some intangible benefit to a hitter being at the plate with a threat on base, I don't believe that it is nearly significant enough to make it better than having one run already scored. Even a speedster leading off and getting to first will score maybe 1/3 of the time if he's lucky.

I have no problem with Jerry Owens leading off, or a player like him leading off. But this idea that somehow it is better to have your leadoff guy being on first base instead of sitting in the dugout after a HR is absolutely ludicrous. People are *****ing about how Soriano has all these leadoff solo shots, somewhere between 25-30 or so. To put that in perspective, Owens would likely have to get on base 100 times to equal the 30 runs the Cubs got from those HR's. Maybe a few less if we assume that perhaps a couple times in there a guy will hit a 2 run HR that he never would have hit had Owens not been on base scaring the pitcher into fastballs down the middle. So let's say 80 times, just for guessing sake. Even with a great OBP of .370 that's still about 215 PA's needed to get on base that many times.

Any time your team puts a run on the board it is a good thing. Not a "good but could be better" thing, not a "he'd be better served on base" thing, and not a "what a waste of a HR" thing. Especially starting off the game. Obviously, not many guys can put up power numbers while still fulfilling traditional lead off duties, and I would rather lose the power and keep the speed in that #1 spot, but if Jerry Owens wakes up tomorrow and starts putting up 15HR a year from the leadoff position I will do a little dance of joy.:bandance:

wassagstdu
09-26-2007, 12:34 PM
If the Sox are going to win in 2008, Thome will have to stay healthy and both Dye and Konerko will have to regain the form we expect of them. If those three things happen, they can win with the current lineup if the pitching (bullpen) can be improved. If Thome, Dye, and Konerko have seasons like 2007, and if we cannot sign A-Rod (Ha!), the Sox will not win no matter what they do. Therefore, the Sox should spend their money on bullpen -- or move one or two current starters to the bullpen and sign a genuine, established top-of-the order starter -- and forget about going after a new SS, leadoff hitter, or CF. (That's and argument, not a pronouncement.)

kjhanson
09-26-2007, 12:41 PM
While I am willing to accept that there can be some intangible benefit to a hitter being at the plate with a threat on base, I don't believe that it is nearly significant enough to make it better than having one run already scored. Even a speedster leading off and getting to first will score maybe 1/3 of the time if he's lucky.

I have no problem with Jerry Owens leading off, or a player like him leading off. But this idea that somehow it is better to have your leadoff guy being on first base instead of sitting in the dugout after a HR is absolutely ludicrous. People are *****ing about how Soriano has all these leadoff solo shots, somewhere between 25-30 or so. To put that in perspective, Owens would likely have to get on base 100 times to equal the 30 runs the Cubs got from those HR's. Maybe a few less if we assume that perhaps a couple times in there a guy will hit a 2 run HR that he never would have hit had Owens not been on base scaring the pitcher into fastballs down the middle. So let's say 80 times, just for guessing sake. Even with a great OBP of .370 that's still about 215 PA's needed to get on base that many times.

Any time your team puts a run on the board it is a good thing. Not a "good but could be better" thing, not a "he'd be better served on base" thing, and not a "what a waste of a HR" thing. Especially starting off the game. Obviously, not many guys can put up power numbers while still fulfilling traditional lead off duties, and I would rather lose the power and keep the speed in that #1 spot, but if Jerry Owens wakes up tomorrow and starts putting up 15HR a year from the leadoff position I will do a little dance of joy.:bandance:

Go up about 7-8 posts and see what jabrch says about Soriano. Yes, the one where it says he costs $17 mm/year.

Your logic is spot-on, you just live in a different world. Everyone would love to have the $153 mm lineup (17*9, stick with me) with 9 guys who could knock themselves in. But on this planet, most lineups are around $40-50 mm. Therefore, you can't have 9 home run hitters. Just based on financial constraints, most lineups will have a player or two that can't hit 20 HRs a year. Therefore, you take speed and the ability to create runs instead. Someone stealing 40 bags a year is a helluva lot cheaper than someone who hits 30 home runs.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 12:54 PM
Go up about 7-8 posts and see what jabrch says about Soriano. Yes, the one where it says he costs $17 mm/year.

Your logic is spot-on, you just live in a different world. Everyone would love to have the $153 mm lineup (17*9, stick with me) with 9 guys who could knock themselves in. But on this planet, most lineups are around $40-50 mm. Therefore, you can't have 9 home run hitters. Just based on financial constraints, most lineups will have a player or two that can't hit 20 HRs a year. Therefore, you take speed and the ability to create runs instead. Someone stealing 40 bags a year is a helluva lot cheaper than someone who hits 30 home runs.

Well said

Somehow people recently have convinced themselves that every position in the batting order is the same, and that they are all responsible for the same things. That's just not how the game really works. Sure - 9 Alex Rodriguez are better than a traditionally constructed lineup. But it just isn't reasonable.

spiffie
09-26-2007, 01:08 PM
Go up about 7-8 posts and see what jabrch says about Soriano. Yes, the one where it says he costs $17 mm/year.

Your logic is spot-on, you just live in a different world. Everyone would love to have the $153 mm lineup (17*9, stick with me) with 9 guys who could knock themselves in. But on this planet, most lineups are around $40-50 mm. Therefore, you can't have 9 home run hitters. Just based on financial constraints, most lineups will have a player or two that can't hit 20 HRs a year. Therefore, you take speed and the ability to create runs instead. Someone stealing 40 bags a year is a helluva lot cheaper than someone who hits 30 home runs.
From my quote:

Obviously, not many guys can put up power numbers while still fulfilling traditional lead off duties, and I would rather lose the power and keep the speed in that #1 spot.

Alfonso Soriano gets that cash because he is the rare guy capable of going 40/40 with the kind of OBP you want in a leadoff hitter. If I thought Soriano could consistently put up the numbers he put up in 2006 I would have been praying for the Sox to sign him at that price, but I think he's overpaid because he's not likely to duplicate that yearly.

And I agreed with you that if I have to choose I take someone with speed over the power in the #1 spot. My entire argument was that people act as though having power from your #1 spot is a negative, rather than a positive. And perhaps that is swayed from spending too much time listening to talk radio lately with people yelling about Soriano's "wasted" home runs. If I could have a guy with decent speed and can go from 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on most singles, if not SB skills, who gets on base at a good clip, and has 10-15 HR power I'd gladly lead him off over someone who gets on base a little less, has no power, but can steal 40 bases. But since the Sox don't have either a Soriano, or a guy like that, Owens looks pretty good to me.

misty60481
09-26-2007, 01:08 PM
I agree 100% with spiffie, maybe we cant afford $ 100+ million but we sure should be able to afford someone with more power than Ovens.

voodoochile
09-26-2007, 01:23 PM
I agree 100% with spiffie, maybe we cant afford $ 100+ million but we sure should be able to afford someone with more power than Ovens.

Yeah, but would that money be better spent somewhere else?

ondafarm
09-26-2007, 01:34 PM
A maxim I have always believed is that: to be a championship team, a team needs to be able to win multiple kinds of games. As in, some games are won by just out-bashing the other team. Other games are won by squeaking one or two runs across against marvelous pitching. You can't always count on getting great starting pitching and on those days, if you run into an opposing pitcher who brought his A game, you rarely win. If your starter has an A game and the opposition a B game, you almost always win (last night being an exception.) But good teams need to win A game versus A game contests and even B game versus B game contests as well. Hawk summarizes this with: 60 you win, 60 you lose and the other 42 make the difference.

Jerry Owens, at current numbers, could be an important asset towards winning those A-game vs A-game contests next year. Danny Richar could also come in handy.

Currently, Owens scores a run 36.7% of the time he's on base. Compare that to Pods in 05 who scored 41.2% of the times on. Other AL lead-off men: Suzuki scores 39.4%, Sizemore 44.2% and Granderson 50.9% of the time. While there's no doubt Owens needs to improve that I think he will be adequate or more than adequate next year.

I think the Sox need to improve SS far more than any other defensive position. Fortifying the bullpen would be my number one priority as well.

It has also been raised that OneDog hit far more triple than Owens does. OneDog had the advantage of old Comiskey Park which was a comparitively good triples park, wheras USCF is a very poor triples park.

kjhanson
09-26-2007, 02:16 PM
Jerry Owens, at current numbers, could be an important asset towards winning those A-game vs A-game contests next year. Danny Richar could also come in handy.

Currently, Owens scores a run 36.7% of the time he's on base. Compare that to Pods in 05 who scored 41.2% of the times on. Other AL lead-off men: Suzuki scores 39.4%, Sizemore 44.2% and Granderson 50.9% of the time. While there's no doubt Owens needs to improve that I think he will be adequate or more than adequate next year.



Absolutely perfect. I was about to post something very similar, but opted for some lunch instead. Anyways, I've brought this "stat" up in the past. One of the best ways to determine how effective a leadoff hitter is, beyond OBP, is to determine the percentage of runs scored once he is on base.

When I looked briefly before lunch, I found the same number that you did on Owens. On the other hand, I believe Soriano is at about 47%. But because this number is highly dependent on the potency of an offense, you can normalize this. In this case, the Cubs score about 9% more runs per game than the White Sox. Scale Soriano's number down by that amount, and he's down around 42-43% (rounding) if he's batting in an offense that scores a similar amount of runs as the White Sox. This is, of course, higher than Jerry's output. I don't think anyone's willing to argue that Owens is a better player than Soriano, but he may be a better value out of the leadoff spot...depends whether the 5% difference is worth $16.5 mm.

MisterB
09-26-2007, 02:36 PM
It has also been raised that OneDog hit far more triple than Owens does. OneDog had the advantage of old Comiskey Park which was a comparitively good triples park, wheras USCF is a very poor triples park.

Johnson played 3 years in Old Comiskey, and only became a regular in it's last season (1990); 8 of his 12 triples over that time were hit at home. In his 5 years with the Sox at New Comiskey, his triples were split 29 home, 36 road.

His triples were pretty much situational: he was such a slap hitter that outfielders played him like a right-handed pull hitter, and all he had to do was get around on a pitch and get it over the firstbaseman's head and he could run all day.

ondafarm
09-26-2007, 02:46 PM
Johnson played 3 years in Old Comiskey, and only became a regular in it's last season (1990); 8 of his 12 triples over that time were hit at home. In his 5 years with the Sox at New Comiskey, his triples were split 29 home, 36 road.

His triples were pretty much situational: he was such a slap hitter that outfielders played him like a right-handed pull hitter, and all he had to do was get around on a pitch and get it over the firstbaseman's head and he could run all day.

29 triples in 5 years at home doesn't really equate to hitting a ton of triples in my book. Opinions may vary.

The AL did at that time have some very nice triples hitting parks, Royals Stadium deserves a big mention as does the Metrodome. AT & T Park (Giants' home) is a fine NL triples park.

UserNameBlank
09-26-2007, 04:19 PM
The numbers posted don't really constitute a good year for a leadoff man, but that doesn't matter much since Jerry is improving. The September Jerry looks better than the August Jerry, and the August Jerry looked better than the pre-August Jerry.

It seems Jerry has been going up the middle and the other way more often, not pulling everything like he was before. His eye has gotten better and he's not getting underneath as many pitches. If he continues to progress he'll be good enough to be an everyday leadoff man in LF but no chance in hell in CF.

I wish the Sox would just dump Joe. If they want to commit to Jerry as a leadoff man yet still play Josh, they are going to hurt themselves more defensively than Joe would help. Fields at 3B + Owens in LF + Anderson/Sweeney/FA in CF >>> Crede at 3B + Fields in LF + Owens in CF. Does Crede's bat make up for the lost defense that his presence would bring? Probably not, unless the Sox sign a FA CF, but if they do that then Owens gets held back when he might be turning the corner.

I wish Kenny would bite the damn bullet, realize the team sucks, and put forth some kind of rebuilding effort instead of screwing things up in order to get a guy in the lineup who has a bad back, is coming off surgery, is in the last year of his deal, and has had only 1 1/2 good years offensively since he's been in the Major Leagues. Crede is a good player and I'll always root for him, but come on. He's never been the type of offensive player that is worth playing two young developing players out of position for.

UserNameBlank
09-26-2007, 04:24 PM
^
P.S. anyone hear Hawk last night talking about the differences in the lineups with Crede or without Crede? What a crock of ****. Without Crede the lineup sucks. With Crede the lineup still sucks, only now guys are playing out of position and our defense is worse.

If Hawk honestly believes that a bullpen arm or two and Crede are the keys to success next year then he obviously hasn't been watching very closely this year. We have legit areas of sucktitude all over this team. We have some suck in the rotation, suck in the bullpen, suck in OF, suck in IF, we suck fundamentally, we suck in speed, we suck in youth, we suck in so many areas that one man and his broken back aren't going to bring us over the hump.

ondafarm
09-26-2007, 04:43 PM
^
P.S. anyone hear Hawk last night talking about the differences in the lineups with Crede or without Crede? What a crock of ****. Without Crede the lineup sucks. With Crede the lineup still sucks, only now guys are playing out of position and our defense is worse.

If Hawk honestly believes that a bullpen arm or two and Crede are the keys to success next year then he obviously hasn't been watching very closely this year. We have legit areas of sucktitude all over this team. We have some suck in the rotation, suck in the bullpen, suck in OF, suck in IF, we suck fundamentally, we suck in speed, we suck in youth, we suck in so many areas that one man and his broken back aren't going to bring us over the hump.

Yes, but what do you really think of this team?

palehozenychicty
09-26-2007, 04:57 PM
^
P.S. anyone hear Hawk last night talking about the differences in the lineups with Crede or without Crede? What a crock of ****. Without Crede the lineup sucks. With Crede the lineup still sucks, only now guys are playing out of position and our defense is worse.

If Hawk honestly believes that a bullpen arm or two and Crede are the keys to success next year then he obviously hasn't been watching very closely this year. We have legit areas of sucktitude all over this team. We have some suck in the rotation, suck in the bullpen, suck in OF, suck in IF, we suck fundamentally, we suck in speed, we suck in youth, we suck in so many areas that one man and his broken back aren't going to bring us over the hump.

This is the reality that nobody wants to face with this team. Well, let's see what happens.

DickAllen72
09-26-2007, 05:00 PM
My biggest gripe with Owens right now is the lack of XBH. But he's been surprising me with his quick development up here, so maybe he can improve upon that.

Maybe he can train with Geovany Soto this winter. :wink:

goon
09-26-2007, 06:07 PM
While I am willing to accept that there can be some intangible benefit to a hitter being at the plate with a threat on base, I don't believe that it is nearly significant enough to make it better than having one run already scored. Even a speedster leading off and getting to first will score maybe 1/3 of the time if he's lucky.

Generally, from what I've seen in baseball from watching for 18 years, not as much as some of the fans around here, when a guy gets on base with speed, the pitcher (unless they are an elite pitcher) have trouble concentrating on holding that runner on base without making mistakes in the strikezone to the guy at the plate. I have no data or charts to prove this, but I can say with a fair amount of confidence that I believe this to be true. And when this happens, rallies start, where instead of having one run from a guy like soriano or young, it translates into two or more runs.

I've seen plenty of instances where guys hit solo home runs and then there are three straight outs after that. I think with the power already demonstrated by the guys in the middle of the Sox order, what this team needs is a guy at the top to get on base consistently. Solo home runs can come from our 2-9 guys, any one of them.

It also really depends who you are talking about when it comes to power at the top of the order. A guy like Young may have 32 home runs, but only 60+ RBI's, where as a guy like Jimmy Rollins has 30 home runs and I believe a little over 90 RBI's. I'm not saying a lead-off hitter with power is ineffective, it's just how and when he chooses to use it. I don't think Young is a good example of what this team is lacking, I think he is an example of what this team doesn't need... other than his speed.

HomeFish
09-26-2007, 06:24 PM
Generally, from what I've seen in baseball from watching for 18 years, not as much as some of the fans around here, when a guy gets on base with speed, the pitcher (unless they are an elite pitcher) have trouble concentrating on holding that runner on base without making mistakes in the strikezone to the guy at the plate. I have no data or charts to prove this, but I can say with a fair amount of confidence that I believe this to be true. And when this happens, rallies start, where instead of having one run from a guy like soriano or young, it translates into two or more runs.


Timo Time?

RCWHITESOX
09-26-2007, 06:25 PM
Owens is a fourth or fifth outfielder on a championship team.

Amen

Tragg
09-26-2007, 06:52 PM
Wr problem is that you don't believe that there is a role for a "lead off hitter" as the game has defined it over the course of time. That's fine - it is wrong - but fine. But don't couch it as complaining about Jerry Owens walk rate if the only leadoff hitters in the game who would be "better" using your standard are Reyes, Roberts and Sizemore.I think a leadoff hitter is absolutely critical. They need to get on base That's I was so unhappy with bad OBP players hitting in the 1/2 holes to start the year (while demoting a decent obp hitter down to the 8 hole), and the manager's cynical comments on OBP as it relates to leadoff.
Reyes, Roberts and Sizemore can drive the ball....they aren't slap hitters. They can get hits through hitting it - homers, knocking it off walls, hitting it in front of and in between outfielders - they don't rely on middlin liners and grounders scooting between infielders. Owens doesn't drive the ball. Thus, HE needs a walk rate in order to get his OBP up to acceptable levels on a consistent basis.
Plus, while it's not the most important thing at leadoff, a touch of power sure is nice.
If Owens can produce like Pods did in 2005 - .350 OBP and 50 steals - I'll say fine, and move on offensively (I'd like a better arm in CF - at least Pods played left).

goon
09-26-2007, 06:55 PM
Timo Time?


Totally.

Maybe I'm foolish enough to believe in intangible factors that work outside the realm of statistics... Why would the Sox need power from their lead off spot when they have it from their 2-7 hitters? Fields, Thome, Konerko, Dye, Crede (probably), you could even throw AJ and Richar in there, what difference would Chris B Young have made in this offense. He'd just be another guy trying to hit home runs. I'd rather see this team try to bring other dimensions to their offense rather than just having sluggers.

Does anyone honestly think Chris B Young would have made this team a contender for a playoff spot in 2007? I sure as hell hope not. Owens might not be the best solution for leading off next season, but I'd much rather see a guy with speed who does everything to get on base, rather than someone swinging for the fence every AB.

As for Alfonso Soriano, he recieved a ridiculous contract from a desperate organization looking to impress their fanbase and media by bagging the best free agent on the market.

SABRSox
09-26-2007, 07:21 PM
I don't see how anyone can sit there and tell me with a straight face that Jerry Owens is a viable starting major league baseball player. He is not. He is a fantastic bench player, but a starter? Ha! A .638 OPS, that's WORSE than Podsednik.

Owens' only valuable asset is his speed. He doesn't get on base often enough to warrant leading off, and even more importantly, he can barely play LF, let alone CF with his arm that is somehow, in someway weaker than Podsednik's.

I'll say it again, this is no better than a 3rd place team with Jerry Owens as the leadoff hitter/OF. 4th place if he's out in CF. Championship teams don't start guys like Jerry Owens. They bring guys like Owens off the bench.

The Sox can definitely find a better option in FA, and they don't even have to pay a lot to do so.

upperdeckusc
09-26-2007, 07:26 PM
Young: .476 SLG/.239 BA/.298 OBP
Fields: .489 SLG/.249 BA/.312 OBP

I don't think there's a real difference..they are about the same age (actually Fields is a year older)...add defense to the equation (he's been a work horse for the DBacks...144 games) on top of the 30/30 production in his first full year in the majors (he's in the top 3 for team leadership in most offensive categories on a post season contending team)...I think Young is headed towards a solid major league career. My point isn't that Young is a perfect player..but the bashing of him seems more like defensiveness of the trade than fact based opinion. If he was putting up these numbers in a White Sox uniform no one would be ripping him.

ya i dont know if i'd "bash" young. he sometimes gets too overhyped, but his rookie yr has been impressive. i think its just one of those trades that has worked out for both clubs. imagine if we still had young, but had garcia and/or el duque still in the rotation. that would be equal or worse than having BA in CF in 06 or the brief erstad experiment this yr. vazquez ended last yr solid, and was solid in all of 07. thats very promising and you can make an argument that he was our ace this yr. to get that type of pitcher for a minor leaguer, and old SP, and a reliever, i'd take that trade 10/10 times.

UserNameBlank
09-26-2007, 07:43 PM
I don't see how anyone can sit there and tell me with a straight face that Jerry Owens is a viable starting major league baseball player. He is not. He is a fantastic bench player, but a starter? Ha! A .638 OPS, that's WORSE than Podsednik.

Owens' only valuable asset is his speed. He doesn't get on base often enough to warrant leading off, and even more importantly, he can barely play LF, let alone CF with his arm that is somehow, in someway weaker than Podsednik's.

I'll say it again, this is no better than a 3rd place team with Jerry Owens as the leadoff hitter/OF. 4th place if he's out in CF. Championship teams don't start guys like Jerry Owens. They bring guys like Owens off the bench.

The Sox can definitely find a better option in FA, and they don't even have to pay a lot to do so.

I agree with this mostly but the Sox are in a spot where they need to build a new core. I'd rather stick with Owens as a LF and leadoff man next year as part of a development/see what we have kind of year than bring in more veterans in an attempt to extend a window that has already closed. Owens' numbers this year aren't good enough, but if he can put together a good enough year next year to get his OBP around .350, with his speed he'll help the Sox.

The last part I totally disagree with 100%. FA sucks next year, and there will be no one able that can leadoff at a decent price. A guy like Rowand has to be looking for something like $10mil per. I have no problem with the Sox looking for an improvement at leadoff but I'd like to see that improvement come from a minor league player/project somewhere. There will be guys like Dave Roberts, Randy Winn, Rafael Furcal, and Juan Pierre available but they make too much money and aren't worth their contracts. If it's me I'd take Jerry in LF at leadoff along with the discount.

I think people need to stop looking at 2008 so optimistically. Not to be a dick head, but the state of the market + the suckiness of our team + the age of our team + our payroll + the state of our farm system doesn't seem to point to much brighter days. I'd personally be thrilled if the Sox used their offseason to do the following: dump Crede and turn 3B over to Fields, dump bad contracts like Cintron and Contreras, got some worthwhile prospects from Garland, dump the oft-injured veterans like Pods and Erstad, dump garbage roster spot eaters like Andy Gonzalez and Paulino Reynoso, dump the free-swinging-no-OBP Uribe, and form some kind of new core. Then next year if Thornton, MacDougal, and Dye have good seasons, trade them for the best package possible at the deadline.

upperdeckusc
09-26-2007, 07:47 PM
I agree 100% with spiffie, maybe we cant afford $ 100+ million but we sure should be able to afford someone with more power than Owens.

when did power (konerko, dye, fields, thome) become the main concern for the white sox?

Man Soo Lee
09-26-2007, 07:48 PM
Keep in mind - Young had all season to do it. Fields just came up in June when Crede went down. Fields improved as time went on - Chris Young did not.

Chris Young
Pre-All Star: .233/.277/.427/.704
Post-All Star: .247/.322/.537/.859
September: .274/.365/.548/.913

upperdeckusc
09-26-2007, 07:52 PM
Absolutely perfect. I was about to post something very similar, but opted for some lunch instead. Anyways, I've brought this "stat" up in the past. One of the best ways to determine how effective a leadoff hitter is, beyond OBP, is to determine the percentage of runs scored once he is on base.

When I looked briefly before lunch, I found the same number that you did on Owens. On the other hand, I believe Soriano is at about 47%. But because this number is highly dependent on the potency of an offense, you can normalize this. In this case, the Cubs score about 9% more runs per game than the White Sox. Scale Soriano's number down by that amount, and he's down around 42-43% (rounding) if he's batting in an offense that scores a similar amount of runs as the White Sox. This is, of course, higher than Jerry's output. I don't think anyone's willing to argue that Owens is a better player than Soriano, but he may be a better value out of the leadoff spot...depends whether the 5% difference is worth $16.5 mm.

so.....im confused. i think the percentage of runs scored once on base is the worst way to determine the effectiveness of a leadoff guy. that's solely based on the hitters behind him. sure he can steal 2nd, 3rd, then score on a grounder. but you cant do that everytime you get on base its just not realistic. im a bigger believer of the 2nd part bolded.

Noneck
09-26-2007, 08:50 PM
The Sox can definitely find a better option in FA, and they don't even have to pay a lot to do so.

Ok I'll bite, Who?

SABRSox
09-26-2007, 08:53 PM
I keep seeing this "Owens in LF" comment. If I'm not mistaken, that's where Fields will be playing next year. Surely you aren't suggesting we put Owens in CF on a regular basis.

How many more singles do we have to see stretched into doubles, and doubles into triples to know that Owens in CF isn't worth what little he brings in terms of his bat.

BTW, FA is way better than you think. Hell, even Corey Patterson would be an improvement over Owens.

Daver
09-26-2007, 09:05 PM
BTW, FA is way better than you think. Hell, even Corey Patterson would be an improvement over Owens.

No.

SABRSox
09-26-2007, 09:08 PM
No.

At least he can play CF. And he's bottom of the barrel. Personally, if the Sox are truly looking to upgrade cheaply, sign Milton Bradley, deal with a month of Owens, and enjoy Bradley's 900+ OPS for the rest of the year.

SABRSox
09-26-2007, 09:11 PM
Here's a list of the CF Free Agents: (bold would be improvements over Owens)

Milton Bradley (30)
Mike Cameron (35)
Darin Erstad (34) - $3.5MM club option for '08
Torii Hunter (32)
Andruw Jones (31)
Kenny Lofton (41)
Corey Patterson (28)
Aaron Rowand (30)
Kosuke Fukudome (31)

lostfan
09-26-2007, 09:19 PM
I don't see how anyone can sit there and tell me with a straight face that Jerry Owens is a viable starting major league baseball player. He is not. He is a fantastic bench player, but a starter? Ha! A .638 OPS, that's WORSE than Podsednik.

If you're going to rip on Owens for having a low OPS, at least be consistent and rip on Thome and Konerko for not stealing any bases this year.

OPS is not the stat you want to base your argument on when you're building a case against a leadoff hitter, to say the least.

Daver
09-26-2007, 09:19 PM
Here's a list of the CF Free Agents: (bold would be improvements over Owens)

Milton Bradley (30)
Mike Cameron (35)
Darin Erstad (34) - $3.5MM club option for '08
Torii Hunter (32)
Andruw Jones (31)
Kenny Lofton (41)
Corey Patterson (28)
Aaron Rowand (30)
Kosuke Fukudome (31)

Ryan Sweeney and Brian Anderson can both play CF.

Grzegorz
09-26-2007, 09:43 PM
Ryan Sweeney and Brian Anderson can both play CF.


Not many on this board believe this but I totally agree with you.

FarWestChicago
09-26-2007, 09:51 PM
Chris Young
Pre-All Star: .233/.277/.427/.704
Post-All Star: .247/.322/.537/.859
September: .274/.365/.548/.913Chris Young is gone. Get over it. You guys are ridiculous. He is not going to suddenly reappear on the Sox roster, hit 83 home runs and lead the Sox to the promised land. Gawd.

delben91
09-26-2007, 09:53 PM
Chris Young is gone. Get over it. You guys are ridiculous. He is not going to suddenly reappear on the Sox roster, hit 83 home runs and lead the Sox to the promised land. Gawd.

But...but...I WAAAAAANT him back on the Sox!!! I dream of it every night! I've been extra good this year and I'm going to ask Santa for Chris Young this year for Christmas!!!! :(:

FarWestChicago
09-26-2007, 09:54 PM
But...but...I WAAAAAANT him back on the Sox!!! I dream of it every night! I've been extra good this year and I'm going to ask Santa for Chris Young this year for Christmas!!!! :(:You and I will probably get a lump of coal. :D:

TomBradley72
09-26-2007, 09:54 PM
Ryan Sweeney and Brian Anderson can both play CF.

...for last place/mediocre teams...but not for a contender/championship team.

Metalthrasher442
09-26-2007, 09:55 PM
My take on Owens is that he can cover a lot of ground in center..still needs to work on his arm, but his glove is fine enough for the majors. The steals are there for a great pinch hitter/runner, and his average is really increasing. Just check him out in next year's spring training and see how much he improves as a lead off hitter. If he doesn't improve that much, he'd still be a great pinch hitter and especially pinch runner.

...for last place/mediocre teams...but not for a contender/championship team.
Hey Anderson plays championship caliber center but the hitting isn't there. Atleast he has one of the two, Sweeney isn't really there on either yet.

delben91
09-26-2007, 09:59 PM
You and I will probably get a lump of coal. :D:

I'd settle for Jeff Abbott and Chris Snopek.

Daver
09-26-2007, 10:07 PM
...for last place/mediocre teams...but not for a contender/championship team.

Yeah, defense has nothing to do with winning championships.

FarWestChicago
09-26-2007, 10:10 PM
Yeah, defense has nothing to do with winning championships.People forget the Big Red Machine, one of the few teams to actually have a serious hitter at most every position, had several excellent defensive players. That allowed them to overcome their supposed pitching. :D:

Man Soo Lee
09-26-2007, 10:16 PM
Chris Young is gone. Get over it. You guys are ridiculous. He is not going to suddenly reappear on the Sox roster, hit 83 home runs and lead the Sox to the promised land. Gawd.

I was simply refuting jabrch's claim that Young didn't show any improvement over the course of the year.

Lip Man 1
09-26-2007, 10:48 PM
You can't minimize defense, period.

Hitters go into slumps, pitchers go into slumps but you can always catch a baseball. If you have at least some guys in your lineup who can do that well you've increased your chances to win games, especially close one's.

There's a reason the Sox won as many one run games as they did in 2005...actually several of them.

Lock down bullpen, clutch hitting and guys who could make plays with the game on the line.

Lip

TomBradley72
09-26-2007, 11:10 PM
Yeah, defense has nothing to do with winning championships.

Absolutely agree....but BA is 25 years old, hit .250 at AAA this year and has hit .231 in 400+ ABs in the majors....I don't think you contend/win championships with such poor production out of the CF position. He couldn't beat out Erstad for CF this year...not a good sign for a guy two years in the bigs. I was a big fan of his throughout 2006...but he has never figured out major league pitching.

jabrch
09-26-2007, 11:32 PM
Here's a list of the CF Free Agents: (bold would be improvements over Owens)

Milton Bradley (30)
Mike Cameron (35)
Darin Erstad (34) - $3.5MM club option for '08
Torii Hunter (32)
Andruw Jones (31)
Kenny Lofton (41)
Corey Patterson (28)
Aaron Rowand (30)
Kosuke Fukudome (31)

Lofton? Patterson? No freaking way

Bradley? You want THAT guy on your team? No way.

I wouldn't pay the price that the rest will demand for 5 year deals with Owens ready and able to deliver what he will for 350k when we still need to spend money on a SS for sure, a few bullpen arms, and possibly a 2B as well.

You want to pay 5/15mm for Rowand? For Jones? Or Hunter? The later two are very old for longer term deals and the former is...well...Aaron Rowand.

And we really know nothing about Fukodome. I have a hard time after watching some of the Japanese disasters imagining that this franchise would take that risk.

Noneck
09-27-2007, 12:03 AM
Here's a list of the CF Free Agents: (bold would be improvements over Owens)

Milton Bradley (30)
Mike Cameron (35)
Darin Erstad (34) - $3.5MM club option for '08
Torii Hunter (32)
Andruw Jones (31)
Kenny Lofton (41)
Corey Patterson (28)
Aaron Rowand (30)
Kosuke Fukudome (31)

You mentioned that the Sox wouldn't have pay a lot to do so. Who on this list will demand less than 10 times what Owens will get over the next 3 years? Lofton and who else?

voodoochile
09-27-2007, 12:12 AM
You mentioned that the Sox wouldn't have pay a lot to do so. Who on this list will demand less than 10 times what Owens will get over the next 3 years? Lofton and who else?

And which of them could possibly lead off? The Sox need a leadoff hitter next year. I for one don't want to bet on Pods being healthy enough to do it. Power from a leadoff hitter should be a bonus, not a requirement. Yes, home runs are always preferable to potential runs (bird in the hand and all that) but are we really expecting the team to spend $8M+ on every starting position and fill the bullpen with better pitchers? I don't see that as being a possiblity, but maybe there's a money tree somewhere around that will make it a possiblity. If not, like it or not the Sox are going to have to rely on at least a couple of serfs to get the job done for this team to be successful.

Noneck
09-27-2007, 12:21 AM
Sox are going to have to rely on at least a couple of serfs to get the job done for this team to be successful.

I think 3 serfs, Owens, Fields and Richar. But they better have a experienced
starting 4, a revamped pen and a quality ss that can possibly lead off.

lostfan
09-27-2007, 10:51 AM
I don't know about the rest of you guys, but I for one am ecstatic about the fact that we have 3 rookies that don't suck and have a legit chance to be solid major leaguers next year. 4 if you count Danks and assume that he'll work on filling out his pitch selection.

jabrch
09-27-2007, 04:26 PM
Back to Chris Young - I did some calculations and found this...his BAOBNOOP (batting average on balls not out of park) is .191. His OBPOBNOOP is .252. His SLGOBNOOP is .259 and his OPSOBNOOP is .511.

Thoughts?

TomBradley72
09-27-2007, 04:45 PM
Back to Chris Young - I did some calculations and found this...his BAOBNOOP (batting average on balls not out of park) is .191. His OBPOBNOOP is .252. His SLGOBNOOP is .259 and his OPSOBNOOP is .511.

Thoughts?

Meaningless.

He's a 24 year old CF in his first full season in the mojors...removing 30+ HRs from his stats seems irrelevent....by that definition...you're rewarding singles/double/triples over HR's...doesn't make sense.

What are Josh Fields' stats w/out HRs? How does Thome hit LHs? or what's his average w/out HRs? If you like a player (as I do Young..especially at this stage of his career)..any stats can support the argument. If you don't...same thing.

eriqjaffe
09-27-2007, 05:01 PM
Back to Chris Young - I did some calculations and found this...his BAOBNOOP (batting average on balls not out of park) is .191. His OBPOBNOOP is .252. His SLGOBNOOP is .259 and his OPSOBNOOP is .511.

Thoughts?I think your acronyms are too long.

Flight #24
09-27-2007, 05:04 PM
Back to Chris Young - I did some calculations and found this...his BAOBNOOP (batting average on balls not out of park) is .191. His OBPOBNOOP is .252. His SLGOBNOOP is .259 and his OPSOBNOOP is .511.

Thoughts?

Are those park-adjusted stats or raw? And do that factor in the ratio of elbow to armpits for the opposing pitcher?

gregoriop
09-27-2007, 06:36 PM
Are those park-adjusted stats or raw? And do that factor in the ratio of elbow to armpits for the opposing pitcher?


IDK, my BFF Rose?

FarWestChicago
09-27-2007, 08:08 PM
This was an entertaining thread until it was hijacked. Oh well...

lostfan
09-27-2007, 08:22 PM
This was an entertaining thread until it was hijacked. Oh well...
Look on the bright side, at least nobody is talking about Anderson.

FarWestChicago
09-27-2007, 08:34 PM
Look on the bright side, at least nobody is talking about Anderson.No, he was in here at some point, too. So was Rowand. :wired:

delben91
09-27-2007, 08:35 PM
I'd settle for Jeff Abbott and Chris Snopek.

No, he was in here at some point, too. So was Rowand. :wired:

And Snopek! :dunno:

Daver
09-27-2007, 08:37 PM
And Snopek! :dunno:

Was there a Ray Durham mention?

delben91
09-27-2007, 08:38 PM
Was there a Ray Durham mention?

No, but if we could work him and Paco Martin in, I'd rest easier.

Daver
09-27-2007, 08:41 PM
No, but if we could work him and Paco Martin in, I'd rest easier.

Maybe throw in a Greg Norton mention for good measure too.

lostfan
09-27-2007, 08:49 PM
No, he was in here at some point, too. So was Rowand. :wired:
The thread isn't completely about him though. That's a positive sign.

A. Cavatica
09-27-2007, 08:53 PM
Norton wasn't too bad a hitter, but his FROOTLOOP (Forfeited Runs On Overhand Throws Lobbed Out Of the Park) was too high.

DSpivack
09-27-2007, 08:54 PM
No, but if we could work him and Paco Martin in, I'd rest easier.

You can't mention good ol' Paco and leave out Craig Grebeck and Warren Newsom.

delben91
09-27-2007, 08:54 PM
Maybe throw in a Greg Norton mention for good measure too.

I'm going to start a "Who should replace Konerko, Greg Norton or Mario Valdez?" thread to correct this oversight.

Brian26
09-27-2007, 09:08 PM
Don't forget Brian Simmons :duck:

Back to Owens:, my two cents:
I'm not convinced Owens can hit a major league fastball consistently. He's got the slow swing like Singleton did.

Lip Man 1
09-27-2007, 09:47 PM
MacKay Christensen anyone?

Lip

delben91
09-27-2007, 09:48 PM
MacKay Christensen anyone?

Lip


Julio Ramirez >>> McKay Christensen

Brian26
09-27-2007, 09:57 PM
Rodney McCray.

Frater Perdurabo
09-27-2007, 10:31 PM
Tim Hulett

Dread Farmer
09-27-2007, 10:54 PM
Owens looks like he's got a Nicole Richie body complex.
Jerry you've got potential but EAT SOMETHING!!! Captain we need more power!

voodoochile
09-27-2007, 11:25 PM
oh come on, you folks are hijacking this thread with ex-Sox guaranteed future HOF outfielders and no one has mentioned the immortal Jeremy Reed? And just to be sure we are tying things up, what about Jimmy? :tongue:

delben91
09-27-2007, 11:39 PM
oh come on, you folks are hijacking this thread with ex-Sox guaranteed future HOF outfielders and no one has mentioned the immortal Jeremy Reed? And just to be sure we are tying things up, what about Jimmy? :tongue:

I see your Jeremy Reed and raise you Carlos Castillo, Luis Andujar, John Snyder, and Chuck McElroy.

UserNameBlank
09-27-2007, 11:43 PM
oh come on, you folks are hijacking this thread with ex-Sox guaranteed future HOF outfielders and no one has mentioned the immortal Jeremy Reed? And just to be sure we are tying things up, what about Jimmy? :tongue:
Players don't qualify for the HOF until they are out of baseball. As far as I know, Jeremy is still padding his stats for the Tacoma Rainers.

Tragg
09-28-2007, 12:01 AM
Players don't qualify for the HOF until they are out of baseball. As far as I know, Jeremy is still padding his stats for the Tacoma Rainers.
Actually I believe he made the last out in Anheim's division clinching game.

TomBradley72
09-28-2007, 09:52 AM
Nyls Nyman?

Leo Sutherland?

Lip Man 1
09-28-2007, 12:33 PM
Jim McAnany? Joe Hicks??

Lip

Daver
09-28-2007, 05:55 PM
oh come on, you folks are hijacking this thread with ex-Sox guaranteed future HOF outfielders and no one has mentioned the immortal Jeremy Reed? And just to be sure we are tying things up, what about Jimmy? :tongue:


Jimmy Reed is still dead.

voodoochile
09-28-2007, 05:56 PM
Jimmy Reed is still dead.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Madscout
10-01-2007, 09:46 AM
Jimmy Reed is still dead.

Then cross him off.