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View Full Version : It's time for a RIOT


voodoochile
09-04-2007, 11:35 PM
What the heck, out with the tired old Magic Number formula and in with the RIOT numbers. Once again this takes into account the remaining schedule and other factors which makes it more detailed and accurate than the simple magic number.

Link is to the home page which explains the numbers they formulate. There's deeper detail on subsequent pages. Links to the individual leagues are at the bottom of the page.

Right now things are so tight that it doesn't say much, but give it time and it will definitely give a more accurate assessment than the newspapers will.

It's updated daily.

http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/baseball_main.html

SBSoxFan
09-05-2007, 12:04 AM
I see this work is being funded by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Your tax dollars at work!

McCuddy
09-05-2007, 12:58 PM
I like it.

itsnotrequired
09-23-2007, 09:09 AM
Okay, I'm a little confused. RIOT reported that the Angels clinched the AL West on Friday night and now say that the Indians clinched the AL Central last night. Yet all the news recaps say both these teams missed clinching by losing. Looking at the second place teams in the divisions (Mariners and Tigers, respectively), both could tie the leaders if they win out and the leaders lose out. Since neither team is a lock for the postseason, season head-to-head records don't matter and there would be a one game playoff for all the marbles.

I checked the schedules of the teams and none of them are playing each other so that aspect doesn't come into play.

I did notice that both the AL West and AL Central only have two teams each left in the postseason hunt. Also, even though the leaders say "Clinch", the second place teams don't have an "Elim" in the "Avoid Elim" number for 1st place in the division. If the leader has clinched, why wouldn't this column have an "Elim" in it? Could it be that once it is down to two teams in a division, the leader gets a Clinch if the best the second place team can do is tie? Seems sort of lame.

Any insights?

http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html)

voodoochile
09-23-2007, 10:35 AM
Okay, I'm a little confused. RIOT reported that the Angels clinched the AL West on Friday night and now say that the Indians clinched the AL Central last night. Yet all the news recaps say both these teams missed clinching by losing. Looking at the second place teams in the divisions (Mariners and Tigers, respectively), both could tie the leaders if they win out and the leaders lose out. Since neither team is a lock for the postseason, season head-to-head records don't matter and there would be a one game playoff for all the marbles.

I checked the schedules of the teams and none of them are playing each other so that aspect doesn't come into play.

I did notice that both the AL West and AL Central only have two teams each left in the postseason hunt. Also, even though the leaders say "Clinch", the second place teams don't have an "Elim" in the "Avoid Elim" number for 1st place in the division. If the leader has clinched, why wouldn't this column have an "Elim" in it? Could it be that once it is down to two teams in a division, the leader gets a Clinch if the best the second place team can do is tie? Seems sort of lame.

Any insights?

http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html)

Cleveland is playing Seattle for 4 games. The answer may lie in there. I don't know.

itsnotrequired
09-23-2007, 11:03 AM
Cleveland is playing Seattle for 4 games. The answer may lie in there. I don't know.

I noticed that but that will only make a difference in a Wild Card situation. Bottom line, if Seattle wins out and LA loses out, the teams will be tied, regardless of who their opponents are. Seattle winning out would impact Cleveland's clinching scenario but would have no impact on LA. Detroit is playing Minnesota and the Sox so that isn't a factor.

Strange...

itsnotrequired
09-25-2007, 07:15 AM
More confusion today as RIOT lists the Yankees as being IN the playoffs yet if they lose out and Seattle or Detroit wins out, the teams would be tied. None of the teams play each other so how is this possible? Or the fact that there would be at worst a playoff game mean the Yankees would be playing after the regular season and hence, are "in" the playoffs?

voodoochile
09-25-2007, 10:06 AM
More confusion today as RIOT lists the Yankees as being IN the playoffs yet if they lose out and Seattle or Detroit wins out, the teams would be tied. None of the teams play each other so how is this possible? Or the fact that there would be at worst a playoff game mean the Yankees would be playing after the regular season and hence, are "in" the playoffs?

I am wondering if they are putting teams in who have clinched at least a tie and are counting the tiebreaker game as a playoff game (incorrectly). I don't know, e-mail them and ask.

ondafarm
09-25-2007, 10:16 AM
I see this work is being funded by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Your tax dollars at work!

In this vein, I would like to point out, the ONR monies support the lab and are based on a certain amount of output from the lab; other stuff produced by the same lab are typically not considered unless they are in violation of certification rights. This particular lab is probably doing statistical analysis work on a defense project unrelated to baseball (supply chain management actually) and as long as they are producing adequate amounts of that, the ONR doesn't care what you do with the rest of your time, apart from leaking classified information that is.

The NSF monies are applied to individuals, in this case Prof Hochbaum, and support that her research efforts in developing new techniques or methods in a particular area, in this case operations research-analysis as applied to supply chain management. RIOT (http://128.32.192.95/riot/) stands for Remote Interactive Optimization Testbed and they do pioneering work in keeping military logistics costs as low as possible. Hard to believe that something in the Iraq War is actually being kept economical as compared to other wars, but the logistics is. RIOT techniques are also being applied to make the automotive industry more efficient (as in meeting auto-dealer demand without building too many of a particular model.) Hard to believe that the US auto industry is also undergoing optimization.