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spiffie
08-19-2007, 04:46 PM
With the signing of JD, the Sox are on the hook for the following in 2008:
Buehrle - 14m
Garland - 12m
Konerko - 12m
Vazquez - 11.5m
Contreras - 10m
Dye - 9.5m
Thome - 7m (appx.)
Pierzynski - 5.5m
MacDougal - 1.95m
Hall - 1.75m
Ozuna - 1.05m
Thornton - 0.875m

Total obligations - 87.125 million

Options/Arbitration possible players:
Uribe - 5m option (0.3m buyout)
Crede - 4.5-6m arbitration
Erstad - 3.5m option (.25m buyout)

Possible costs - 13-15 million (.55m in buyouts)

Everyone else are still in their first three years so their contracts are minimal and at the team's discretion. So assume a couple of million for any young players added/kept.

Seems like the Sox will have some major movement to do if they are going to free up salary for the FA market. They almost have to deal one of the starters in order to have any flexibility for the offseason. Does signing Dye mean the end of Jose or Jon? It's going to be an interesting offseason.

All figures courtesy of mlbcontracts.blogspot.com

getonbckthr
08-19-2007, 04:48 PM
Well I see 10 million I would love to be gone.

pierzynski07
08-19-2007, 04:51 PM
When you say "end of Jose", are you assuming that some other team will pick up all the salary? Because that's not happening.

BTW, 13 players at the minimum is about another $5 million.

downstairs
08-19-2007, 04:57 PM
No one is taking Jose with his full contract. We're going to eat some of it.

I say:

Contreras gone (we eat 5m, save 5m)
Uribe gone
Crede signed (say 5m)
Erstad option signed (3.5m)

Brings us to a 100m payroll. We haven't been much more than 2-3m over this in 2006-2007. Feels very tight, unless one of the big salaries at the top of that list will be gone.

Garland is the only one I see that's worthwhile for the money.

Suddenly I am not feeling good about 2008.

Flight #24
08-19-2007, 05:15 PM
With the signing of JD, the Sox are on the hook for the following in 2008:
Buehrle - 14m
Garland - 12m
Konerko - 12m
Vazquez - 11.5m
Contreras - 10m
Dye - 9.5m
Thome - 7m (appx.)
Pierzynski - 5.5m
MacDougal - 1.95m
Hall - 1.75m
Ozuna - 1.05m
Thornton - 0.875m

Total obligations - 87.125 million

Options/Arbitration possible players:
Uribe - 5m option (0.3m buyout)
Crede - 4.5-6m arbitration
Erstad - 3.5m option (.25m buyout)

Possible costs - 13-15 million (.55m in buyouts)

Everyone else are still in their first three years so their contracts are minimal and at the team's discretion. So assume a couple of million for any young players added/kept.



I look at it this way - if you assume $3M in first 3 year player deals, that leaves things at $90.125M before the potential options. Keep Crede and you're at ~$95M.

That's a slight decrease from where the team was at last year in terms of cash they were responsible for (~$99M IIRC). That lets you sign a veteran RP or 2 for the bullpen and maybe a cheap stopgap SS like Vizquel to a 1-yr deal and stay around $100-105M. Your LF is Fields and your CF is from the group of Owens-Sweeney-Anderson-Ozuna-Terrero, or if Pods is cheap enough you can do that.

Of course, I could see them nontendering Crede and trying to get a CF like Rowand (although he'll probably make ~$10M so payroll goes up another $5). Or if they're a bit more financially flexible, keep him, sign the CF, and trade Joe in-season once healthy so he costs you maybe $1M but you have the risk that you end up eating the full $5.

Alternately, if you can swap Contreras for Furcal ($13M for 2008, then FA), you're probably out of the FA market unless there's a major payroll bump, but you have your true leadoff guy and SS.

Of course in an ideal world, you trade Contreras without eating any salary, and sign ARod and an RP which leaves you around $105-$110 after an in-season Crede trade.

RealFan
08-19-2007, 05:17 PM
Today's Tribune discusses the potential of the Sox having an increased budget next year due to ticket sales, product revenue and the like.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cs-070818dye,1,1300001.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

There is discussion of the Sox chasing Torii Hunter or other similar FAs in the off-season. So I think we will have an interesting off season and I'm just hoping that the Sox can reinstall that winning attitude as this season fades away (typing this just as Garland is giving up two more runs to go down 8 - 2)...:mad:

Frater Perdurabo
08-19-2007, 05:27 PM
No one is taking Jose with his full contract. We're going to eat some of it.

What about the rumored Contreras for Furcal swap? Furcal may not clear waivers, so for now list him as the "player to be named later." If they need to sweeten the pot to get the Dodgers to pick up all of Jose's contract, then offer the Dodgers their choice of any of our minor leaguers (other than Gio), and designate him as a PTBNL as well.

Buehrle - 14m
Garland - 12m
Konerko - 12m
Vazquez - 11.5m
Furcal - 13m
Dye - 9.5m
Thome - 7m
Pierzynski - 5.5m
MacDougal - 1.95m
Hall - 1.75m
Ozuna - 1.05m
Thornton - 0.875m
Uribe - 0.3m buyout
Crede - 6m arbitration (worst case scenario)
Erstad - .25m buyout

That's 96.675m, with 12 spots to fill. Jenks deserves a raise, perhaps up to$4 million. But every other youngster can be retained for the MLB minimum (~$4 million for ten: Richar, Fields, Owens, Logan, Wasserman, Buckvich, Gio, Danks, Gonzalez, Haeger/Russell/Sisco/etc.). Now we're at $104.675m and 24 players. I think there's enough room to squeeze in a contract for Rowand or Cameron.

WhiteSox5187
08-19-2007, 05:51 PM
Here are the numbers I have so far and of course, most of these numbers are TOTALLY hypothetical...so we start out with a base of 82.125 mil, let's add on Uribe's and Erstad's buyout at .55 mil, this brings our total to 83.665 mil.

Let's assume that they re-sign Pods as a fourth OFer for 1.5 mil, this brings our total payroll to 84.175 mil.

Let's also assume they keep Owens/Sweeney and Richar who are probably making around the ML minimum which is rough 300k, add those two salaries to our total payroll, we have 84.775 million.

Now let's say we're able to trade Jose, in an ideal world there'd be some sucker who'd take his whole salary. That's not going to happen, we're going to have eat AT LEAST half of that, this reduces our payroll and brings it to...79.775. I also forgot, if we're dumping Jose, this would mean we're bring up Gio or Floyd or Russell who I believe are also making about ML minimum, so let's add another 300k to that. That brings our payroll to 80.075 mil.

This leaves us with Crede...Crede is currently making 4.94 mil this year...if he goes to arbitration, he'll probably make less than that, seeing as how he had only 167 AB hitting .216, but both the Sox and Crede are probably going to want to avoid arbitration (the whole arbitration process here really screws up my formula because I'm not so sure how it works) so let's say they sign a contract of about 5 mil. This brings our payroll up to 85.075 mil.

Assuming that we have a payroll of no less than 100mil and no more than 115 mil (and I don't think Uncle Jerry is going to let us have that big of a payroll), that leaves us with anywhere from 14.925 - 29.925 mil to spend on a shortstop, CF, and leadoff man (obviously, the leadoff man is going to be one of those two positions). Take from that what you will.

jabrch
08-19-2007, 05:52 PM
Furcal may not clear waivers, so for now list him as the "player to be named later."

As I recall, a PTBNL can not be on a major league roster (not sure if that is the 25 man or the 40 man) but in any case, I don't believe the Sox/Dodgers could do that if they wanted to.

pierzynski07
08-19-2007, 07:00 PM
You seem so sure that this Contreras/Furcal deal is going to happen.

Frater Perdurabo
08-19-2007, 07:01 PM
As I recall, a PTBNL can not be on a major league roster (not sure if that is the 25 man or the 40 man) but in any case, I don't believe the Sox/Dodgers could do that if they wanted to.

Wasn't there an instance where a player was traded from "Team A" to "Team B" during the season, for a PTBNL, and after the season, that same player went back to "Team A" as the PTBNL? Or am I just imagining things?

Frater Perdurabo
08-19-2007, 07:04 PM
Take it FWIW, but according to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_to_be_named_later), the only restriction is that the deal must be completed within six months and the player must change leagues. That's why the PTBNL often comes from the minor leagues.

Obviously I would defer to Daver on this one. He seems to know MLB rules as well as he does plumbing, engines, weapons and live game.

Frater Perdurabo
08-19-2007, 07:05 PM
You seem so sure that this Contreras/Furcal deal is going to happen.

I'm not sure at all. Maybe I need to use deeppink, though.

Daver
08-19-2007, 07:13 PM
As I recall, a PTBNL can not be on a major league roster (not sure if that is the 25 man or the 40 man) but in any case, I don't believe the Sox/Dodgers could do that if they wanted to.

It can be if the deal is not completed until the offseaon, after the waiver period ends, which would still fall within the parameters of the deal being completed within 6 months.

jabrch
08-19-2007, 10:56 PM
It can be if the deal is not completed until the offseaon, after the waiver period ends, which would still fall within the parameters of the deal being completed within 6 months.

Thanks guys - didn't know about that 6 month rule.

soxfanreggie
08-19-2007, 11:14 PM
Maybe JR would let us get away with not counting the part of JCs salary we could eat in our payroll figure. It doesn't look as bad if we have Konerko and/or Dye hitting well for an entire season.

WhiteSox5187
08-20-2007, 04:23 PM
What's the shortstop free agent class like? I know there's Eckstein but he'd be a better second baseman truth be told...there's Tomohiro Nioka but he's not a leadoff hitter and the price for him could be ridiciolous.

HomerCoach
08-21-2007, 07:52 AM
Well I see 10 million I would love to be gone.

I see 19.5 mill i would love to be gone.

eastchicagosoxfan
08-21-2007, 09:01 AM
What's the shortstop free agent class like? I know there's Eckstein but he'd be a better second baseman truth be told...there's Tomohiro Nioka but he's not a leadoff hitter and the price for him could be ridiciolous.
Here's a link to contracts and free agents by position. It does not include A-Rod, I assume because the he has an option in his contract. http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/2007-free-agents.html

I think payroll will go up around 10%, to around $120 million. I'm basing this on what Buerhle said he and KW discussed before he signed. They talked about free agents, so the money will have to be there to sign at least one, but probably two. I don't think KW was talking out of his ass to Buerhle. I don't see the Sox trading Garland or Vazquez; established starting pitching is too hard to come by.

Flight #24
08-21-2007, 11:06 AM
Here's a link to contracts and free agents by position. It does not include A-Rod, I assume because the he has an option in his contract. http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/2007-free-agents.html

I think payroll will go up around 10%, to around $120 million. I'm basing this on what Buerhle said he and KW discussed before he signed. They talked about free agents, so the money will have to be there to sign at least one, but probably two. I don't think KW was talking out of his ass to Buerhle. I don't see the Sox trading Garland or Vazquez; established starting pitching is too hard to come by.

I'm cautiously optimistic of this as well. My rationale is that by all accounts, the MLB AM contracts have generated significant new revenue for teams, which supposedly contributed to the ludicrous salaries thrown around the past offseason (well, that and the Cubs). However, we've not seen any corresponding bump in the Sox payroll. One logical reason would be that Kenny didn't see any significant upgrades available the past offseason. That would obviously not be true this coming offseason given the CFs available and possibly the SS.