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ArkanSox
08-02-2007, 01:13 PM
Hawk said that Floyd's a one-pitch pitcher? Yankee announcers, Al Leiter and Michael Kay, said that Danks is basically a two-pitch pitcher, and YES TV showed stats that after batters have faced him once, twice, thrice, he becomes less and less effective. They did think the Sox got the better of the McCarthy trade though, since Danks is a rarely found, hard-throwing lefty starter with control, and Masset also has potential.

These statistics don't represent domination by either young thrower past AA ball, especially Floyd. Is surrendering the long ball a concern?

League ERA W L GP GS CG IP H R ER HR BB K

FLOYD Total MLB 7.31 7 6 28 21 1 123.0 150 108 100 28 69 83
Total NL 6.95 7 5 24 19 1 108.2 125 90 84 20 64 75
Total AL 10.04 0 1 4 2 0 14.1 25 18 16 8 5 8
Total AAA 5.24 14 16 46 45 2 283.0 311 180 165 24 113 200
Total AA 2.57 6 6 20 20 2 119.0 93 39 34 5 46 94
Total A 2.87 18 18 51 47 4 304.0 247 120 97 22 109 255

League ERA W L GP GS CG IP H R ER HR BB K

DANKS Total AL 5.06 6 8 20 20 0 112.0 124 67 63 22 44 83
Total AAA 4.32 4 5 14 13 0 70.2 67 43 34 11 34 72
Total AA 4.93 9 14 31 30 0 167.2 191 104 92 23 56 167
Total A 3.70 7 11 42 36 0 175.0 162 85 72 14 63 178

Benjamin Disraeli says "There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics."
Well, damn it, Ben, we're baseball fans.

Personally, I think Danks could be very special, if he develops a good off-speed pitch. Next season, do you think that these two guys can solidify the starting rotation behind Burlyman, Jon, and Javy?

Lip Man 1
08-02-2007, 01:17 PM
Never heard that quote attributed to him. I have heard it connected to Winston Churchill and before him Mark Twain.

Lip

TheVulture
08-02-2007, 01:23 PM
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/b/benjamindi107958.html

cws05champ
08-02-2007, 01:25 PM
Danks has progressed nicely at every level he pitched at, and the MLB jump is the hardest. I think it may take him another year, but he could be very good MLB pitcher. He needs to control his FB a bit better, and develop the change up. His left side opens up a lot and his release point is inconsistent on his change and it causes his command to waiver with it. If he can start to command the change and FB, he'll only need to use his decent curve 5-10 times a game.

Gavin Floyd is another story...he still has the stuff, but I just don't think he has the poise and guts to succeed. Maybe he'll be one of those 27-28 yr old guys that finally gets it, but he won't be with the Sox at that point. My guess is that Floyd will be gone by the end of ST next year. Garland will be traded, and the 5th spot will be a battle between Gio Gonzales/ Broadway/ Haegar/Veteran arm.

kitekrazy
08-02-2007, 02:43 PM
Garland will be traded, and the 5th spot will be a battle between Gio Gonzales/ Broadway/ Haegar/Veteran arm.

If Garland is traded then you have 2 spots to fill. A veteran arm will probably cost you close to what you can pay Garland. I would try to trade Contreras.

SoxxoS
08-02-2007, 02:58 PM
If Garland is traded then you have 2 spots to fill. A veteran arm will probably cost you close to what you can pay Garland. I would try to trade Contreras.

The only player that is available for Jose Contreras nowadays is Darren Driefort

ArkanSox
08-02-2007, 03:18 PM
Yeah, Lip, Twain and Churchhill used it also, but as Bob Dylan once said "all writers are thieves." Probably goes for politicians too.

Once at a social gathering, Gladstone said to Disraeli, "I predict, Sir, that you will die either by hanging or of some vile disease". Disraeli replied, "That all depends, sir, upon whether I embrace your principles or your mistress."

cws05champ, I can imagine that possible scenario happening, and I agree with your assessment of Floyd, but I'm hoping against hope that the Sox can somehow extend Garland's contract and hold onto him past next year.

soxfan43
08-02-2007, 03:30 PM
The only player that is available for Jose Contreras nowadays is Darren Driefort


What Jaime Navarro or Arnie Munoz aren't available?

whitesoxfan1986
08-02-2007, 06:27 PM
Garland, at the moment, seems to be heading down the same path that Mark did last season after his shellacking. He may end up bringing the same type of crap Jose would if he doesn't fix his rectal-cranial inversion PDQ.

JungleJimR
08-02-2007, 06:33 PM
In Tuesday's 8-1 loss Danks showed a sneaky fast ball-first pitch strike. I believe he had first pitch strikes on 80 % of the batters he faced. And he had many 1-2 and 2-2 counts that he couldn't finish. - At the critical point of the game he leveled a 1-2 fast ball to Pasada that Jorge drove out for a 2 run homer. What in the world was he doing - to be anywhere near his zone with a 1-2 count? I also think he had a 2-2 count on Cano's homer! - also a fastball, I believe.

This was the first time I have seen Danks since I can't get WGN on my NY cable. Is this a pattern? Does he think of himself as a power pitcher? He needs to learn to allow batters to hit his pitch when he is way ahead in counts, not to blow them away.

I hope Danks watched Pettite - seemingly always behind in the count but never giving in and enticing Sox hitters to hit his change-up and slider.

cws05champ
08-03-2007, 09:03 AM
In Tuesday's 8-1 loss Danks showed a sneaky fast ball-first pitch strike. I believe he had first pitch strikes on 80 % of the batters he faced. And he had many 1-2 and 2-2 counts that he couldn't finish. - At the critical point of the game he leveled a 1-2 fast ball to Pasada that Jorge drove out for a 2 run homer. What in the world was he doing - to be anywhere near his zone with a 1-2 count? I also think he had a 2-2 count on Cano's homer! - also a fastball, I believe.

This was the first time I have seen Danks since I can't get WGN on my NY cable. Is this a pattern? Does he think of himself as a power pitcher? He needs to learn to allow batters to hit his pitch when he is way ahead in counts, not to blow them away.

I hope Danks watched Pettite - seemingly always behind in the count but never giving in and enticing Sox hitters to hit his change-up and slider.
Danks was throwing what AJ called for, plain and simple. The location is another thing....if he could locate the FB somewhat better he would stay away from the longball more often. Until Danks can consistently locate his Change, people are going to sit on the FB.

DrewSox56
08-03-2007, 09:19 AM
Danks was throwing what AJ called for, plain and simple. The location is another thing....if he could locate the FB somewhat better he would stay away from the longball more often. Until Danks can consistently locate his Change, people are going to sit on the FB.

His change was what actually what was getting pounded on Wednesday. I watched that game on YES, and Girardi made a real good point - he commented that he had a little TOO much on the change. A difference of at least 10mph makes a changeup effective. He might have been a little too amped - his change was over 80mph.

He was also leaving it up way too often.

Anyway, I feel that Danks has real potential to be an effective, quality starter. Nothing lights out, but good enough to keep us in games.

Floyd on the other hand, I really don't see ever panning out to be a big league starter.

EMel9281
08-03-2007, 09:45 AM
Garland, at the moment, seems to be heading down the same path that Mark did last season after his shellacking. He may end up bringing the same type of crap Jose would if he doesn't fix his rectal-cranial inversion PDQ.

I have never heard the old adage of having one's head up the other body part put so eloquently. Well said!

slavko
08-03-2007, 11:19 AM
Never heard that quote attributed to him. I have heard it connected to Winston Churchill and before him Mark Twain.

Lip

and you would be right....Twain (who thought telling a fib to make a point was good form) attributed the quote to old Dizzy in his (MT's) autobiography. That's where this all got started. One can't show a contemporary source for Disraeli making the statement because there are none. Here's the scoop:

Twain's Autobiography attribution of a remark about lies and statistics
to Disraeli is generally not accepted. Evidence is now available to
conclude that the phrase originally appeared in 1895 in an article by
Leonard H. Courtney.

It was previously known that J. A. Baines used the phrase in J. of the
Royal Statistical Society 59 (1895) 87. He quotes his friend and fellow
statistician, M.P., later Lord, Courtney, in "recent" use.

Leonard Courtney, "To My Fellow-Disciples at Saratoga Springs," The
National Review [London] (1895) 21-8 here 25.

Note that this line is put in the mouth of a generic, future, fictional
person--not a historical figure--in an "object lesson" about
insufficient Proportional Representation. "Wise Statesman" here is
playful. ("Statistics" originally had to do with accountings of state
matters.) Another quotation in the same long paragraph by "electors" is
also part of this play.

So Disraeli is not the source, nor any pre-1895 person; merely Courtney.
It would be unrealistic to suppose the English and American audiences
of Baines and Courtney would have recognized a particular past
statesman--otherwise vanished--who said this. Note also the
punctuation differs from Twains' version (of gradations),
and allows (purported, in context) appositives, sputtering denial.
Courtney, in this case, was not criticising bad counting but election
laws he considered inadequate.

"Lies--damned lies--and statistics."

Stephen Goranson

P.S. The 1895 article is now available online at:
http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm (http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm)
Note Courtney may have read Carlyle on statistics (also quoted at this
site); certainly, misuse of statistics was complained about before 1895.

Marqhead
08-03-2007, 12:11 PM
Remember Garland has 4-5 years of mediocrity and frustration before he finally clicked. I think the same type thing could happen with Danks.

He's shown some promise this year, and if we continue to give him chances, not to mention maybe give him the chance to pitch for a winning team I think he could develop into something special in the next 2-3 years. Lefty power arms are hard to come across, I really hope he makes it.

voodoochile
08-03-2007, 12:18 PM
Remember Garland has 4-5 years of mediocrity and frustration before he finally clicked. I think the same type thing could happen with Danks.

He's shown some promise this year, and if we continue to give him chances, not to mention maybe give him the chance to pitch for a winning team I think he could develop into something special in the next 2-3 years. Lefty power arms are hard to come across, I really hope he makes it.

Garland's slow development probably had as much to do with Manuel as anything. Manuel never let Garland get comfortable working out of trouble. No shock that it started to turn around for him almost immediately when Ozzie started leaving him in later in games and allowed Garland to get comfortable working out of jams. It's not all Manuel's fault, but he definitely delayed the development process, IMO.

Hopefully Danks will have a faster learning curve because of Ozzie's willingness/obsession with seeing his starters work deep into games regardless of the situation.