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View Full Version : Baseball Prospectus formula says Cubs in the Series in 07


Fenway
07-13-2007, 03:44 PM
now they are complely insane

What? The Cubs? (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/07/10/bb.preview.cubs/index.html)

A Baseball Prospectus formula projects who has the stuff to win in October. It's not as crazy as it sounds (really) (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/07/10/bb.preview.cubs/index.html)

Flight #24
07-13-2007, 03:47 PM
I just hope they put that on the cover. Who can forget "Hell freezes over"?

chisoxfanatic
07-13-2007, 03:48 PM
Even if they made the playoffs, I wholeheartedly think the Mets have what it takes to bring their season to a screetching hault.

Fenway
07-13-2007, 03:49 PM
I just hope they put that on the cover. Who can forget "Hell freezes over"?
already happened :D:


http://crawdaddycove.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/hell-freezes-over-04.jpg

spiffie
07-13-2007, 03:53 PM
Even if they made the playoffs, I wholeheartedly think the Mets have what it takes to bring their season to a screetching hault.
If the 2006 season taught us anything, its that even the crappiest team can get hot for a couple weeks and win it all if they make the postseason. 95 times out of 100 the Cardinals don't win it all last year, but they won it the one time it got played, and that's all that counts.

However, I still think the Brew Crew hold on to win the division.

oeo
07-13-2007, 03:54 PM
With a rotation of Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Rich Hill, and Sean Marshall...somehow I doubt they can 1)get to the postseason and 2)beat the best in the NL with that craptacular rotation.

Now, I know they've pitched over their heads this year, but Lilly and Marquis have been inconsistent of late, along with Hill and Marshall who are two huge ?'s. They've had the best record in baseball since the beginning of June, and they're still only a game over .500; what happens when they fall back to Earth?

DSpivack
07-13-2007, 03:58 PM
I expect them to win the Simulated World Series this year...or have they done so already?

rocky biddle
07-13-2007, 04:01 PM
They're basing this off something called a "secret sauce" number? Sounds reliable. Could there be anything more catastrophically annoying than a Cubs/Red Sox World Series?

JB98
07-13-2007, 04:12 PM
I think the Brewers will win that division.

I'm not the least bit concerned about the World Series-bound Cubs.

eriqjaffe
07-13-2007, 04:15 PM
Could there be anything more catastrophically annoying than a Cubs/Red Sox World Series?Yeah, the Cubs winning one.

Iwritecode
07-13-2007, 04:32 PM
The formula pointed to the surprising matchup between the White Sox and the Astros in the 2005 World Series (not to mention Chicago's title), in addition to the unlikely championships of the 1990 Reds and the 2002 Angels.

The last time I checked, they didn't even think the Sox would win the division in 2005. Now they are saying they actually predicted that they would win the WS?

ZombieRob
07-13-2007, 04:32 PM
I think the Brewers will win that division.

I'm not the least bit concerned about the World Series-bound Cubs.
The worst thing about it if the Cubs make the playoffs,is that how much a genius "Sweet Lou" is.:(:it would be never ending.

JB98
07-13-2007, 04:37 PM
The worst thing about it if the Cubs make the playoffs,is that how much a genius "Sweet Lou" is.:(:it would be never ending.

Don't worry: Every Cub fan you know will die without seeing his/her team win the World Series.

Yes, even the five-year-olds.

Mr.1Dog
07-13-2007, 04:40 PM
A fortune cookie told me I was going to be very rich in the near future...That was 10 years ago. Sometimes people write things just to get people's hopes up.

WhiteSox5187
07-13-2007, 06:49 PM
The problem with this formula is that it requires the Cubs to actually make the playoffs...I'm not so sure that they will do that. Also Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis have started to look a lot more like Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis which spells trouble for the Cubs' staff.

MarySwiss
07-13-2007, 07:07 PM
Well, they're not alone. The Republic ran a story yesterday that had the Cubs making the Series. However, the reporter (Joseph A. Reaves; name may be familiar) stopped short of actually predicting they'd win.

ma-gaga
07-13-2007, 07:59 PM
I love the "secret sauce" formula. It didn't do the Twins any favors last year, but it's fun....

:gulp:

thomas35forever
07-13-2007, 08:37 PM
I expect them to win the Simulated World Series this year...or have they done so already?
They sure did, and their simulated victory rally reached the 2 billion mark.:redneck

sox1970
07-13-2007, 08:42 PM
I feel like if the Cubs were ever going to do it, it would be like the Cardinals last year. Limp into the playoffs, get hot with the right players, maybe catch some breaks. I've been saying for a week it's going to be the battle of the longest droughts--Indians vs Cubs. Indians will win, of course.

cws05champ
07-13-2007, 09:13 PM
I feel like if the Cubs were ever going to do it, it would be like the Cardinals last year. Limp into the playoffs, get hot with the right players, maybe catch some breaks. I've been saying for a week it's going to be the battle of the longest droughts--Indians vs Cubs. Indians will win, of course.

In their formula how many simulated games did Wood and Prior win? Let's see, 4 towels thrown X 15 chugs of Gatoraid/3 fluff stories by the Cubune= Cubs WIN the world series!!!

chisoxfanatic
07-13-2007, 10:16 PM
I feel like if the Cubs were ever going to do it, it would be like the Cardinals last year. Limp into the playoffs, get hot with the right players, maybe catch some breaks. I've been saying for a week it's going to be the battle of the longest droughts--Indians vs Cubs. Indians will win, of course.

As much as I LOATHE the Indians, I think I'd have to root for them in that scenario. I couldn't imagine what things would be like if the Cubs were to catastrophically win the World Series. I would like for us to have eternal bragging rights over them!

JB98
07-13-2007, 10:24 PM
The Cubs are 45-43. I can't believe so many people are contemplating the possibility that they'll be in the World Series.

It doesn't take much to whip up Cubbie hysteria.

FarWestChicago
07-13-2007, 10:49 PM
I love the "secret sauce" formula. It didn't do the Twins any favors last year, but it's fun....

:gulp:Ma, I hope you are embarrassed to be associated with these assclowns. I know you think the sun shines out their ass, despite being intelligent yourself. But, don't you think they may have at least had a liquid fart this time?

WhiteSox5187
07-14-2007, 12:02 AM
The Cubs are 45-43. I can't believe so many people are contemplating the possibility that they'll be in the World Series.

It doesn't take much to whip up Cubbie hysteria.
The Cardinals weren't very impressive last year either. All a team has to do is to get into the playoffs anyway they can and from there it's a whole new ballgame. All of the season's stats go out the window...however, I don't think the Cubs are going to get into the playoffs.

JB98
07-14-2007, 01:22 AM
The Cardinals weren't very impressive last year either. All a team has to do is to get into the playoffs anyway they can and from there it's a whole new ballgame. All of the season's stats go out the window...however, I don't think the Cubs are going to get into the playoffs.

During the wild-card era, baseball produces a surprise champion about every three years.

1997 Marlins
2001 Diamondbacks
2003 Marlins
2006 Cardinals

The odds are strongly against the NL Central producing this year's World Series winner. Things will come back to the mean this October, and an AL powerhouse (Anaheim, Detroit or Boston) will win the title.

chaerulez
07-14-2007, 01:29 AM
Well, lets not read into this article too much. They are saying IF the Cubs were to the go into the playoffs, they would have a good chance of success. So the Cubs still have to get to the playoffs first. But all they are saying is what most fans have known all along- power pitching and defense are keys to a good playoff team, I don't need a formula to tell me that.

hose
07-14-2007, 07:52 AM
My best friend is a non-smack talking Cub fan that is a die hard baseball fan. If the Cubs somehow did win the WS this year I would be classy about the whole situation and congratulate them.

My buddy hates that the Cubs are a tourist trap and has long advocated blowing up Wrigley Field which he considers not only a dump but an albatross around the franchise's neck.

After the Sox won the WS I talked to some of my Cub friends and told them that it's an awesome feeling and that some day they will get to enjoy it. Of course if the Sox could win a couple more WS before then...........:bandance::cool:

Viva Medias B's
07-14-2007, 08:02 AM
The way the Brewers are playing lately, it looks like they're handing the NL Central title to the Cubs on a silver platter.

cws05champ
07-14-2007, 08:46 AM
Well, lets not read into this article too much. They are saying IF the Cubs were to the go into the playoffs, they would have a good chance of success. So the Cubs still have to get to the playoffs first. But all they are saying is what most fans have known all along- power pitching and defense are keys to a good playoff team, I don't need a formula to tell me that.

I think the Cubs have a better chance of making the postseason than they do advancing and winning the in the postseason. Lilly, Marquis in a playoff rotation....doesn't inspire fear into anyone.

The Immigrant
07-14-2007, 09:35 AM
The way the Brewers are playing lately, it looks like they're handing the NL Central title to the Cubs on a silver platter.

They desperately need another starter and some bullpen help, but I'm afraid they are too cheap/timid to make a deal and would rather hang on to their prospects.

The Immigrant
07-14-2007, 09:38 AM
Lilly, Marquis in a playoff rotation....doesn't inspire fear into anyone.

Maybe, but Zambrano sure does and you only need one more pitcher to get on a roll late in the season. San Diego is the only NL contender with two stud starters and their offense blows. The Cubs would have as good a chance as anyone in the NL to get to the World Series (and then get swept by the Tigers).

Matlock
07-14-2007, 10:06 AM
There is no way the cubs are going anywhere, they may be playing well now, but just wait till August comes rolling around, they will suck. Cubs = history of loosing

PKalltheway
07-14-2007, 12:10 PM
As much as I don't want to see the Cubs in the postseason, it is very possible that they can make it, especially in that horrible division. Also, like earlier posts have elaborated on, all regular season stats are thrown out the window once the postseason starts. It's about who gets hot at the right time, not who has the best team "on paper." Will it be the Cubs this year? IMHO, no, but crazy things do happen in the postseason. You just never know. We will see...

Fenway
07-14-2007, 12:14 PM
Could there be anything more catastrophically annoying than a Cubs/Red Sox World Series?

Being a fan of the team that LOSES the Series to the Cubs

Johnnydogs
07-14-2007, 01:45 PM
With a rotation of Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Rich Hill, and Sean Marshall...somehow I doubt they can 1)get to the postseason and 2)beat the best in the NL with that craptacular rotation.

Now, I know they've pitched over their heads this year, but Lilly and Marquis have been inconsistent of late, along with Hill and Marshall who are two huge ?'s. They've had the best record in baseball since the beginning of June, and they're still only a game over .500; what happens when they fall back to Earth?

Listen, it would make me feel better to rag on them too but in the interest of baseball I can't. Statistically, the Cubs have the second (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=ERA&split=127&group=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&statType=pitching&type=reg)best starting rotation in the NL behind the Padres (and third (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=ERA&split=127&group=9&season=2007&seasonType=2&statType=pitching&type=reg) in all of MLB behind both the A's and Padres). One could argue that they have overachieved but the numbers speak for themselves. Also, they were 9 games under .500 at some point so that's why they are only 2 games over .500 now even after going 23-12 in the last 35 games.

Also, I don't know what everybody's talking about with Lilly; he's pitched pretty well while Marquis has been seemingly more lucky than anything else.

Lilly: 8-4, 3.67 ERA, 112.2 IP, 27 BB, 98 SO, 1.09 WHIP

Only Jake Peavy and Chris Young have lower starters WHIPs than Lilly in the NL (1.06)

Anyway, SI is doing nothing but a fluff piece to cater to a fan base with a wide appeal...

It's Time
07-14-2007, 02:55 PM
I'll tell you what, the Brewers are starting to act like, well, the Brewers. They have lost 6 of 8 and that 8.5 game lead is down to 3.5. On paper, the Cubs will and should come back to over take the crew.

The series however?:?:

Soxfanspcu11
07-14-2007, 03:34 PM
now they are complely insane

What? The Cubs? (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/07/10/bb.preview.cubs/index.html)

A Baseball Prospectus formula projects who has the stuff to win in October. It's not as crazy as it sounds (really) (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/07/10/bb.preview.cubs/index.html)


:?:

Is this actually for real?

Bill Naharodny
07-14-2007, 04:34 PM
Listen, it would make me feel better to rag on them too but in the interest of baseball I can't. Statistically, the Cubs have the second (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=ERA&split=127&group=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&statType=pitching&type=reg)best starting rotation in the NL behind the Padres (and third (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=ERA&split=127&group=9&season=2007&seasonType=2&statType=pitching&type=reg) in all of MLB behind both the A's and Padres). One could argue that they have overachieved but the numbers speak for themselves. Also, they were 9 games under .500 at some point so that's why they are only 2 games over .500 now even after going 23-12 in the last 35 games.

Also, I don't know what everybody's talking about with Lilly; he's pitched pretty well while Marquis has been seemingly more lucky than anything else.

Lilly: 8-4, 3.67 ERA, 112.2 IP, 27 BB, 98 SO, 1.09 WHIP

Only Jake Peavy and Chris Young have lower starters WHIPs than Lilly in the NL (1.06)

Anyway, SI is doing nothing but a fluff piece to cater to a fan base with a wide appeal...

Lilly's good, particularly in the NL. Marquis is lousy, and he's been showing that form for about 2 months now. The key for them will be Rich Hill. If he's solid in the next few months, they'll sail into the playoffs. From there, anything can happen.

soxfan13
07-14-2007, 05:01 PM
Listen, it would make me feel better to rag on them too but in the interest of baseball I can't. Statistically, the Cubs have the second (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=ERA&split=127&group=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&statType=pitching&type=reg)best starting rotation in the NL behind the Padres (and third (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=ERA&split=127&group=9&season=2007&seasonType=2&statType=pitching&type=reg) in all of MLB behind both the A's and Padres). One could argue that they have overachieved but the numbers speak for themselves. Also, they were 9 games under .500 at some point so that's why they are only 2 games over .500 now even after going 23-12 in the last 35 games.

Also, I don't know what everybody's talking about with Lilly; he's pitched pretty well while Marquis has been seemingly more lucky than anything else.

Lilly: 8-4, 3.67 ERA, 112.2 IP, 27 BB, 98 SO, 1.09 WHIP

Only Jake Peavy and Chris Young have lower starters WHIPs than Lilly in the NL (1.06)

Anyway, SI is doing nothing but a fluff piece to cater to a fan base with a wide appeal...


Shhhhh lots of people here like to ignore stats like this:tongue:

viagracat
07-15-2007, 09:57 AM
Could there be anything more catastrophically annoying than a Cubs/Red Sox World Series?

Yeah, Cubs vs Yankees. I literally wouldn't know who to pull for.

And although I know they're not your father's Red Sox, I wouldn't say the Yanks can't catch them. Not yet.

Obviously, the Cubs are clicking on all cylinders right now. If they keep playing half as good as they have the past few weeks the rest of the year, they will win that sorry-ass division and as you know, anything can happen in the playoffs.

If all the above happens, I will be in the vomiting position throughout October. Kinda hard to get work done that way. :(::o:

cws05champ
07-15-2007, 10:01 AM
They desperately need another starter and some bullpen help, but I'm afraid they are too cheap/timid to make a deal and would rather hang on to their prospects.

How about Jenks, Mackowiak and Lance Broadway for Yovani Gallardo and Tony Gwynn Jr?

Sure it would screw our pen even more if we trade Jenks, but Gallardo is a stud for the next decade. Then you can trade contraras for more OF and bullpen help for 08.

Moses_Scurry
07-16-2007, 10:20 AM
The cubs have made the playoffs before and we Sox fans have survived.

The NL is so balanced and crappy that pretty much every team making the playoffs will be fairly equal, including the wild card.

So, taking into account the fact that to only make the WS, the cubs will have to win two playoff series against equal at worst and superior at best teams, it will be a long, tough road for them.

Then they will have to win a third straight series against a vastly superior AL team, even if it is the wildcard!

So, in summary, I'm not worried and won't be until game 1 of the WS starts and the cubbies are still playing.

I don't care about "owning" the city. The cubs can "own" the city all they want. All I care about is the championships. I won't be terribly bummed if they make it to the WS as long as they choke at some point!

Fenway
07-16-2007, 10:22 AM
Then they will have to win a third straight series against a vastly superior AL team, even if it is the wildcard!



Don't forget Detroit was planning their World Series parade as certainly they would beat the woeful Cardinals.

Chicken Dinner
07-16-2007, 11:19 AM
http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=5437&stc=1&d=1184602687
Don't worry. I have a ticket connection. :smile:

kjhanson
07-16-2007, 11:35 AM
Has anyone noticed how truly mediocre the National League is again? After the hot starts by Milwaukee, Atlanta and the Mets, everyone seemed blinded to the fact that the National League is just downright bad.

The Dodgers have the best record in the N.L. They are on pace to win 91 games. The current Wild Card team in the American League is on pace to win 96 games. That is just disgusting. Seattle could win their projected 93 games and still be 3 games out of the Wild Card. In the N.L. they would have home-field advantage in the first two rounds!

Chicken Dinner
07-16-2007, 11:45 AM
But an NL team won the World Series last year with 83 wins! :o:

The Immigrant
07-16-2007, 12:21 PM
But an NL team won the World Series last year with 83 wins! :o:

Stupid Tigers and their throwing errors.

chaerulez
07-16-2007, 12:30 PM
Has anyone noticed how truly mediocre the National League is again? After the hot starts by Milwaukee, Atlanta and the Mets, everyone seemed blinded to the fact that the National League is just downright bad.

The Dodgers have the best record in the N.L. They are on pace to win 91 games. The current Wild Card team in the American League is on pace to win 96 games. That is just disgusting. Seattle could win their projected 93 games and still be 3 games out of the Wild Card. In the N.L. they would have home-field advantage in the first two rounds!

Again? It's been like this for the past few years. After all 90 wins got the White Sox a 3rd place finish in their division last year and if we had played in the NL we would've had the 2nd best record.

Foulke You
07-16-2007, 02:35 PM
Stupid Tigers and their throwing errors.
Not to mention guys like Magglio Ordonez, Craig Monroe, Marcus Thames, and Ivan Rodriguez who all hit like crap in the World Series and made Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver look like Koufax and Drysdale.

NorthSideSox72
07-16-2007, 02:48 PM
This is the same BP, if I recall, whose post-season predicting forumla gave the Sox a less than 90% chance to make the playoffs... after they made the playoffs.

Gar. Bage.

NorthSideSox72
07-16-2007, 02:51 PM
This is the same BP, if I recall, whose post-season predicting forumla gave the Sox a less than 90% chance to make the playoffs... after they made the playoffs.

Gar. Bage.
Sorry, meant to specify that was the 2005 Sox.