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getonbckthr
07-05-2007, 08:27 PM
Can we lay off this guy now? He is 5-5 with a 3.70 ERA 100 K's for a 4-1 K/BB ratio.

JB98
07-05-2007, 08:31 PM
Can we lay off this guy now? He is 5-5 with a 3.70 ERA 100 K's for a 4-1 K/BB ratio.

I'll cut him some slack if he pitches well for a full season.

SOXandILLINI
07-05-2007, 08:31 PM
I think we overpaid for Javier, but i have no problem with him as a #5.

Boondock Saint
07-05-2007, 08:32 PM
I'm not ready to get off him. With the talent/stuff he's got, he could/should be an ace.

SoxxoS
07-05-2007, 08:38 PM
The thing about Javy that was the knock in New York and Arizona - Can he pitch when the pressure is on? Notice while we were still in the pennant race he wasn't all that hot? Now, we are 100 games out and he is Cy Young. My roommate from AZ told me the exact same thing - He has trouble with pressure.

JB98
07-05-2007, 08:47 PM
The thing about Javy that was the knock in New York and Arizona - Can he pitch when the pressure is on? Notice while we were still in the pennant race he wasn't all that hot? Now, we are 100 games out and he is Cy Young. My roommate from AZ told me the exact same thing - He has trouble with pressure.

He gave up a grand slam to Craig Monroe in a pressure situation last year.

chisoxmike
07-05-2007, 09:59 PM
Can we lay off this guy now? He is 5-5 with a 3.70 ERA 100 K's for a 4-1 K/BB ratio.

It would be nice if he did this last summer. Not when we're 12.5 out of first. Look at his career stats. His "breakout" season was on the Expos. He couldn't handle New York. What does that tell you...

JorgeFabregas
07-05-2007, 10:07 PM
He did fine in April when the Sox were still in it.

Would you haters prefer that he suck right now just 'cause they're out of it?

champagne030
07-05-2007, 10:08 PM
Can we lay off this guy now? He is 5-5 with a 3.70 ERA 100 K's for a 4-1 K/BB ratio.

Well, if it means we sign Mark and we need to dump salary and get prospects........nice known'ya Javy. He'll bring a ****load more in return than Mark will and then we gain the "flexibility" that has Kenneth in a lather.

doublem23
07-05-2007, 10:09 PM
I think we overpaid for Javier, but i have no problem with him as a #5.

You clearly haven't seen the kind of deals pitchers much worse than Javy have been getting.

If this was 1997, yeah, we're paying him too much. Today, he's actually a pretty good bargain.

decolores9628
07-05-2007, 10:19 PM
It would be nice if he did this last summer. Not when we're 12.5 out of first. Look at his career stats. His "breakout" season was on the Expos. He couldn't handle New York. What does that tell you...

Neither could Jose Contreras, and he helped us win a World Series

y2j2785
07-05-2007, 10:23 PM
I've never really had a problem with Javy. Ive always liked him and I always will like him. Im not sure if we really did overpay for him, but whats done is done and you cant go back on it now.

chisoxmike
07-05-2007, 10:32 PM
Neither could Jose Contreras, and he helped us win a World Series

They need to get rid of him too...

DrewSox56
07-05-2007, 10:33 PM
They need to get rid of him too...

:nod:

Tragg
07-05-2007, 10:53 PM
Can we lay off this guy now? He is 5-5 with a 3.70 ERA 100 K's for a 4-1 K/BB ratio.
So why do you want to get rid of him?
He's a quality starting pitcher, one of the 5 most valuable players on this team. He may be the most valuable...maybe that's a reason to trade him, but I'd keep him. I'd like to see if we can assemble something by trading Conteras and any position player except for Fields. Glad Dye hit a homer, but sorry to see him pulled.


Absent an actual statistical analysis, I don't buy this "clutch" stuff...I remember reading post after post from people telling me how clutch Timo and his .280 obp was in 2004.....usually, "clutch" (or not) comes from people's own biases and remembering what they want to remember (and forgetting what they want to forget).

itsnotrequired
07-05-2007, 10:57 PM
Absent an actual statistical analysis, I don't buy this "clutch" stuff...I remember reading post after post from people telling me how clutch Timo and his .280 obp was in 2004.....usually, "clutch" (or not) comes from people's own biases and remembering what they want to remember (and forgetting what they want to forget).

With RISP and two outs, Timo went 14-34 (.412) with 18 RBIs and only one K in 2004. His average got progressively worse as the Sox run differential increased.

:dunno:

Tragg
07-05-2007, 11:00 PM
With RISP and two outs, Timo went 14-34 (.412) with 18 RBIs and only one K in 2004. His average got progressively worse as the Sox run differential increased.

:dunno:
Actually, this is the first time I've seen those numbers. Doesn't make any sense - coincidence.

Next you'll throw out stats that Cintron slugs 900 with RISP and 2 out....

itsnotrequired
07-05-2007, 11:08 PM
Actually, this is the first time I've seen those numbers. Doesn't make any sense - coincidence.

As for Vazquez, he is limiting opponents to a .114 AVE with RISP and two outs. Compare that to Buehrle at .242, Garland at .244 and Contreras at .271. He also leads the starters in opponent AVE and runs allowed (0) in "late & close" games (7th or later with game tied, tying run on deck or opponent up by one). Opponent's AVE also decreases each time he sees them in the order, the only Sox starter to do so.

Next you'll throw out stats that Cintron slugs 900 with RISP and 2 out....

Nah, a lowly .231 SLG with RISP and 2 outs for Cintron this season.:D:

jabrch
07-05-2007, 11:09 PM
I like Javy - I'd love to see him put a full season together next year.

decolores9628
07-05-2007, 11:12 PM
They need to get rid of him too...

I was just trying to say that just because you cant thrive in New York doesn't mean you can't anywhere else.

And Javy isn't clutch? Neither is Jim Thome, but we ALL love him.

RockJock07
07-06-2007, 01:23 AM
They need to get rid of him too...

Yeah, Jose is real bad.

Javy is a very solid #5, but I too, want him to finish the rest of the season out like this. But with this offense, he may only end up with 10-11 wins.

SBSoxFan
07-06-2007, 08:06 AM
Yeah, Jose is real bad.

Javy is a very solid #5, but I too, want him to finish the rest of the season out like this. But with this offense, he may only end up with 10-11 wins.

Javy's a #4 right now, and if Buehrle is gone Javy moves up to #2. I think the Sox keep Javy around long enough to decide whether his contract stability enables him to maximize his potential.

Jaffar
07-06-2007, 08:27 AM
hmmmm, he had a 3.41 ERA in August last year and a 3.82 ERA in September but I guess he wasn't "clutch".

balke
07-06-2007, 08:34 AM
I don't rely on glimmers of hope with Javy anymore. He's had long enough of a career that its pretty obvious what he's going to do. Being an ace isn't one of them.

I bashed him on his contract, but I wasn't aware of the 3 mil that AZ picked up on this season, which makes his contract closer to what it should be. I just get sick thinking that the Sox threw money to keep Javy around, but were ready to ship off Buehrle who's so much more important to this team.

He's done well lately, let's see if he does it consistantly.

Tragg
07-06-2007, 08:39 AM
Look what we paid for him - our best prospect, a #5 starter (and "clutch" understates El Duque) and a middle reliever....and that's when he had a 5+ ERA against NL competition.

This guy's a sabremetric dream, with all of those Ks. Yall might call him a 4 and maybe he is, but we could get a #1 or #2 price for him and he's pitching lately like a #1 or #2.
Whether he can keep it up, I don't know. It wouldn't surprise me if he does. And it's with a staff of pitchers like he's been pitching that win world series'. Contreras was our ace in 2005 - and he pitched like an elite #1 in the second half. WE haven't enjoyed that level of sustained pitching from a pitcher over that length of time since then.

Craig Grebeck
07-06-2007, 08:44 AM
I think people don't realize just how valuable a guy with an ERA between 4 and 5 that has a great K/BB ratio and pitches 200+ innings is. Javy brings so much stability to the staff.

jabrch
07-06-2007, 08:46 AM
The Sox threw money to keep Javy around, but were ready to ship off Buehrle who's so much more important to this team.


If only life was that simple...

This is not a Mark or Javy decision. There is room for both, if both want to be here. No decision made with Javy is impacting the Sox ability/will to sign Mark, the same way they won't allow anything with Mark to impact future agility.

itsnotrequired
07-06-2007, 08:48 AM
This is not a Mark or Javy decision. There is room for both, if both want to be here. No decision made with Javy is impacting the Sox ability/will to sign Mark, the same way they won't allow anything with Mark to impact future agility.

Agreed. Buehrle's rumored NTC demand would not be impacted if Javy wasn't signed. They are separate scenarios.

balke
07-06-2007, 08:49 AM
If only life was that simple...

This is not a Mark or Javy decision. There is room for both, if both want to be here. No decision made with Javy is impacting the Sox ability/will to sign Mark, the same way they won't allow anything with Mark to impact future agility.


Yeah, but I'm referring to bashing him before these new negotiations, when it seemed the Sox weren't even thinking about resigning Mark. When everyone thought Mark was going to cost 16 Mil.

jabrch
07-06-2007, 08:57 AM
our best prospect

We gave them Jeremy Reed?

seriously - Chris Young is hitting .278 this year in AZ. Wait - let me double check that. **** - that's his OBP?

jabrch
07-06-2007, 08:59 AM
Yeah, but I'm referring to bashing him before these new negotiations, when it seemed the Sox weren't even thinking about resigning Mark. When everyone thought Mark was going to cost 16 Mil.

Again - that's not because we signed Javy - that's because people were talking about Mark getting a 5+ year deal.

With all due respect to Buehrle, I wouldn't give him a Zito length deal either.

itsnotrequired
07-06-2007, 09:02 AM
We gave them Jeremy Reed?

seriously - Chris Young is hitting .278 this year in AZ. Wait - let me double check that. **** - that's his OBP?

WSI: The place where all Sox prospects are future Hall of Famers and all prospects from other teams are garbage.

:redneck

soxfan13
07-06-2007, 09:09 AM
I like Javy - I'd love to see him put a full season together next year.

How much longer can people keep saying that about him. Thats whats drives me insane about him, is his inconsitency.

jabrch
07-06-2007, 09:19 AM
How much longer can people keep saying that about him. Thats whats drives me insane about him, is his inconsitency.

Me too...he's got such great stuff and is such an effective starter when he is on.

balke
07-06-2007, 09:25 AM
How much longer can people keep saying that about him. Thats whats drives me insane about him, is his inconsitency.

Yeah, we've seen many full seasons of Javy. They add up to about a 4.30 ERA and 12 wins.

santo=dorf
07-06-2007, 09:36 AM
Yeah, we've seen many full seasons of Javy. They add up to about a 4.30 ERA and 12 wins.
Reminds me of Garland from a few years ago, except his ERA was closer to 5.

Chicken Dinner
07-06-2007, 09:37 AM
You clearly haven't seen the kind of deals pitchers much worse than Javy have been getting.

If this was 1997, yeah, we're paying him too much. Today, he's actually a pretty good bargain.

Jeff Weaver, Barry Zito, Roger Clemens, the list goes on...............

balke
07-06-2007, 09:41 AM
Reminds me of Garland from a few years ago, except his ERA was closer to 5.

24 year old headcase, versus a 30 year old headcase with twice as much playing time to wake up. That's a bit of a STREEEEEETCH. Not to mention Javy's AL ERA is closer to 5 as well.

Zisk77
07-06-2007, 09:53 AM
Well if he could hit his weight we'd still be in it.

Tragg
07-06-2007, 10:22 AM
We gave them Jeremy Reed?

seriously - Chris Young is hitting .278 this year in AZ. Wait - let me double check that. **** - that's his OBP? He also has 12 homers in 1/2 a season. Well, I see you agree with Ozzie's approach to developing young talent - give them 1/2 a season maximum and then give up on them. Maybe we can trade them Mack to play CF for their 2nd half playoff push and then, perhaps Arizona will sign Erstad in the offseason and then permanently demote Young to the minors.

Tell me how you want to analyze these trades - prospectively or retrospectively. Your choice. You're picking and choosing.
Have you seen El D's 2007 stats?
I've used the Garcia comparison ad nauseum. As none of the 2 prospects amounted to anything, and Olivo flopped with Seattle, one could say that if Kenny trades MB for a bag of balls that he received more than he gave Seattle....yet that would be ridiculously deceptive.

SoxxoS
07-06-2007, 10:33 AM
He also has 12 homers in 1/2 a season. Well, I see you agree with Ozzie's approach to developing young talent - give them 1/2 a season maximum and then give up on them. Maybe we can trade them Mack to play CF for their 2nd half playoff push and then, perhaps Arizona will sign Erstad in the offseason and then permanently demote Young to the minors.


Russell Branyan really turned into a stud huh?

jabrch
07-06-2007, 10:56 AM
I see you agree with Ozzie's approach to developing young talent - give them 1/2 a season maximum and then give up on them.

No - but I don't ever get excited about ANYONE who can't hit for average in the minors. That's a bad sign when you move up to the majors. He was a .267 hitter in the minors. I don't give a crap how many times he walked against crappy pitching if he couldn't hit it.

Tell me how you want to analyze these trades - prospectively or retrospectively. Your choice. You're picking and choosing.
Have you seen El D's 2007 stats?

My answer is simple. We got the best player in the trade. The team who gets the best player almost always gets the better end of the deal. Quality is much more important than quantity.

I've used the Garcia comparison ad nauseum. As none of the 2 prospects amounted to anything, and Olivo flopped with Florida, one could say that if Kenny trades MB for a bag of balls that he received more than he gave Seattle....yet that would be ridiculously deceptive.

Not really - it just means KW knew what he was giving up and he knew what he was getting. Same as the recent Freddy deal - he knew exactly what he had, exactly what he was giving up, and what he was getting - and got the better end of the deal -- regardless of if Floyd/Gio ever throw a single pitch for us.

Tragg
07-06-2007, 11:50 AM
Russell Branyan really turned into a stud huh?
Russell Branyan had tools comparable to Liefer.
Yea, lots of prospects wash out. No kidding.

But for some reason, we'll be trading for a bunch of them in the next month.


Not really - it just means KW knew what he was giving up and he knew what he was getting. Same as the recent Freddy deal - he knew exactly what he had, exactly what he was giving up, and what he was getting - and got the better end of the deal -- regardless of if Floyd/Gio ever throw a single pitch for us.
What - Williams is clairvoyant? If Williams knows exactly what he's getting, then why wouldn't Floyd/Gio throw lots of pitches for us? Why weren't they in the bullpen a month ago?


Did he know what he was getting in Jon Adkins? The prospects he traded for when he unloaded Alomar, Howry and Lofton?
MacDougal?
Aardsma?
Sisco?

Come on - he's smart, he can evaluate talent, he's a good GM, but he doesn't KNOW. I wouldn't trade Javy (although I think we could get a ton for him). But I think he's a good talent evaluator and I'm counting on him to bring some fresh young talent onto the team.

I tend to agree that with you that hitting for a low average in the minors portends trouble in the majors, regardless of obp.

balke
07-06-2007, 12:04 PM
To be fair, what good is 12 HR's from a leadoff hitter who can't get on base past .280?

redsand22
07-06-2007, 12:07 PM
I like Javy, he's a good middle (#3-#5 starter). With the salaries on the rise, I think we have him signed at a decent amount.

If a pitcher is moved at this point, my hope would be it's Jose.

Tragg
07-06-2007, 12:09 PM
To be fair, what good is 12 HR's from a leadoff hitter who can't get on base past .280?
Not much. I hope for their sake he doesn't lead off.

Those numbers aren't much good in any position in the order; you balance potential with just how good is the current option. For the Sox, I thought our options were poor, so potential held sway. Sox brass went with the options.
Don't know Az's situation.