PDA

View Full Version : Great BP Article (Yes, it's a glaring oxymoron) on 2008


Craig Grebeck
06-14-2007, 02:05 PM
Nate Silver wrote an impressive article about the Sox today and their transition from 07 to 08. Incredibly thoughtful and well informed. He predicts the lineup could/will be:

The 2008 Chicago White Sox (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=CHA)?

2B Luis Castillo (free agent)
RF Kosuke Fukudome (free agent)
1B (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=1B) Paul Konerko
DH Jim Thome
3B Joe Crede
CF Ryan Sweeney
LF Josh Fields
C A.J. Pierzynski
SS Brent Lillibridge (acquired for Mark Buehrle)

P Jon Garland (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/garlajo01.php)
P Javier Vazquez
P Jose Contreras
P John Danks
P Chad Billingsley (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/billich01.php) (acquired for Jermaine Dye) or Gio Gonzalez
CL Bobby Jenks

bryPt
06-14-2007, 02:20 PM
okay, yippy that Joe Crede is back, but no MB? :(:

Contreras is going to be 62 next year.

but I would take it.

Lip Man 1
06-14-2007, 02:29 PM
I like Ichiro much better in the outfield, thank you.

Lip

Flight #24
06-14-2007, 02:32 PM
I'm ignorant of Liilbridge, but if he's coming straight up for Burls, I'm assuming he's an extremely hotshot prospect, can't-miss type. I also know nothing of Fukodome, unless it's the 4th Mad Max movie.

The lineup seems like a decent mix of age & youth, and appears to have superior speed and OBP to what we're running out there in '07. Might be light on power though.

One question is: That lineup looks significantly cheaper than the current payroll ($16M shaved in Dye/Burls). Is there any comment on that? I would expect if to be redistributed, which could provide something like either and improvement in the OF over Fukodome or with some payroll bumping: Arod.

Me likey the rotation though. Resign Garland & let Contreras go and you could still swap in Gio/Floyd/Sisco/Russell as the #5 in 2009.

FedEx227
06-14-2007, 02:33 PM
In case people were wondering about Kosuke Fukudome here's the Baseball Reference write-up on him: http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Kosuke_Fukudome

eriqjaffe
06-14-2007, 02:46 PM
Well, that's where the $16 million we saved from Dye & Buehrle went, I guess.

FedEx227
06-14-2007, 02:49 PM
I'm ignorant of Liilbridge, but if he's coming straight up for Burls, I'm assuming he's an extremely hotshot prospect, can't-miss type. I also know nothing of Fukodome, unless it's the 4th Mad Max movie.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/player.php?id=452121

There's the word on Lillibridge, not gonna lie I would definitely take him in a deal. Not only is he young, he's a middle infielder something our farm system desperately needs. I doubt it would be straight up for Buehrle, I'm sure Atlanta would chip something else in maybe a mid-level prospect, but I'd be all for the deal. I've never seen the guy play but looking at his write-up he seems to be a great player.

oeo
06-14-2007, 03:07 PM
In case people were wondering about Kosuke Fukudome here's the Baseball Reference write-up on him: http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Kosuke_Fukudome

Here's a looooong homerun (at 1:00 remaining):
rYllEVLkKdM

GAsoxfan
06-14-2007, 03:11 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/player.php?id=452121

There's the word on Lillibridge, not gonna lie I would definitely take him in a deal. Not only is he young, he's a middle infielder something our farm system desperately needs. I doubt it would be straight up for Buehrle, I'm sure Atlanta would chip something else in maybe a mid-level prospect, but I'd be all for the deal. I've never seen the guy play but looking at his write-up he seems to be a great player.

If the Sox are going to deal with the Braves, I hope they get Salty in return.

DSpivack
06-14-2007, 03:11 PM
I like that team.

QCIASOXFAN
06-14-2007, 03:13 PM
There is no way Konerko, Thome and Crede will be hitting in a row next year. They are way to slow.

FedEx227
06-14-2007, 03:21 PM
If the Sox are going to deal with the Braves, I hope they get Salty in return.

Not sure if that's going to happen. I think they'd like to hold onto McCann and Salty then decide which one to move, they'd most likely part with Pena at a much cheaper price since he appears to be the odd man out.

Man it must be nice to have three great prospects at one position.

It must be their lack of high draft picks

MRM
06-14-2007, 03:42 PM
I like Ichiro much better in the outfield, thank you.

Lip

Ichiro isn't coming to the Sox. If they are going to hand out that kind of cash it will be to their own 28yo starting pitcher, not someone elses 34yo RF.

DSpivack
06-14-2007, 04:06 PM
Not sure if that's going to happen. I think they'd like to hold onto McCann and Salty then decide which one to move, they'd most likely part with Pena at a much cheaper price since he appears to be the odd man out.

Man it must be nice to have three great prospects at one position.

It must be their lack of high draft picks

If Thorman doesn't work out at 1B, I could see the Braves keeping both Salty and McCann, and either one of them moving to 1B, or have both of them learn the position, and switch them back and forth, so as not to wear down a catcher. Salty has been taking grounders there; don't know if he has played there in a game, yet. I don't know if a team has ever really done this, though.

Ichiro isn't coming to the Sox. If they are going to hand out that kind of cash it will be to their own 28yo starting pitcher, not someone elses 34yo RF.

I actually see it as the other way around. SP is our deepest position in the minors, OF seems rather questionable, especially given Dye's imminent departure. I see them spending on a free agent OF more than a SP, especially when they already have so much invested in Garland, Vazquez, and Contreras. With Danks looking good thus far, only one youngster needs to be broken in. Gio, Floyd, Russell, Broadway, McCulloch; there are quite a few to compete for one spot.

Flight #24
06-14-2007, 04:12 PM
Best news in all of this is that from all the various rumors, it seems that Dye has some pretty good value despite age, pending FA status, and (so far in '07) suckitude.

Lip Man 1
06-14-2007, 04:19 PM
MRM:

We shall see...

FWIW when I was in Chicago last May visiting the team and speaking with some of the front office folks the name Ichiro was coming up then.

My take is this is another one of those players Kenny has been after for a few years and history shows he usually gets those players.

Lip

GAsoxfan
06-14-2007, 04:21 PM
If Thorman doesn't work out at 1B, I could see the Braves keeping both Salty and McCann, and either one of them moving to 1B, or have both of them learn the position, and switch them back and forth, so as not to wear down a catcher. Salty has been taking grounders there; don't know if he has played there in a game, yet. I don't know if a team has ever really done this, though.

There has been talk down here of moving Salty to 1B just to get his bat in the lineup, especially against LHP.

Flight #24
06-14-2007, 04:22 PM
FWLIW, BP had a chat today with their japanese baseball guy & he commented on "Beyond" Fukodome (ya heard it here first!).


Norville Barnes (Muncie, IN): How is K Fukudome hitting these days? And how does one correctly pronounce his name? Is he still likely to play in MLB next season?
Mike Plugh: Fukudome is now batting .298/.444/.538 with 17 doubles and 11 homers in 61 games. He was cold in late May after a fast start, but has really picked it up recently again.

His name is pronounced "FOO-koo-doh-may", although many prefer the alternate pronunciations around BP.

He is still very likely to play in the Majors as a free agent next season, and should pull in $10 million a season if my barometer is right. I'll have a profile of him up soon.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/images/dot_gray.gif
Steve (Boston, MA): What type of production could we see from Fukudome in the MLB? Is he at the tail end of his prime or does he have a few years of solid production? Any comparable players currently in the US?
Mike Plugh: He has a few solid seasons left. He is an above average defender with a cannon arm. He is patient and should produce a very good OBP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP) in the Majors. I think expectations of power would be off base, but he'll smack a lot of doubles. He's more of an Abreu-type player.

If he could approach Bobby Abreu (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/abreubo01.php) in the Majors, he'd do very well. He'll translate because he doesn't swing at bad pitches very often.

Abreu at $10M/yr - sounds like a nice idea.

DSpivack
06-14-2007, 04:29 PM
There has been talk down here of moving Salty to 1B just to get his bat in the lineup, especially against LHP.

The problem is, as far as I know, is that both are good catchers defensively (nice problem to have). My idea would be to have both learn 1B (I know, easier said than done) and have each play 81 games at C and 1B, so as to keep them fresh (catchers often wear out, no?). I don't know if this is feasible at all or if there is any precedent, however.

DSpivack
06-14-2007, 04:31 PM
MRM:

We shall see...

FWIW when I was in Chicago last May visiting the team and speaking with some of the front office folks the name Ichiro was coming up then.

My take is this is another one of those players Kenny has been after for a few years and history shows he usually gets those players.

Lip

Let's go after Ichiro and Fukudome, as well as re-signing Iguchi and put Seattle to shame. :D:

russ99
06-14-2007, 04:33 PM
FWLIW, BP had a chat today with their japanese baseball guy & he commented on "Beyond" Fukodome (ya heard it here first!)

Nice! :D:

ND_Sox_Fan
06-14-2007, 04:40 PM
The problem is, as far as I know, is that both are good catchers defensively (nice problem to have). My idea would be to have both learn 1B (I know, easier said than done) and have each play 81 games at C and 1B, so as to keep them fresh (catchers often wear out, no?). I don't know if this is feasible at all or if there is any precedent, however.

I would imagine that if Morneau were a catcher, the Twins would have done this with Mauer and Morneau. Not saying the Braves' guys are the same hitters, but it wouldn't be too surprising.

It has been my experience (granted at lower levels) that catchers make excellent first basemen. I think this would be a very plausible way for them to go.

DumpJerry
06-14-2007, 04:43 PM
Why do they think Crede will still be with us next year?

FedEx227
06-14-2007, 04:50 PM
If Thorman doesn't work out at 1B, I could see the Braves keeping both Salty and McCann, and either one of them moving to 1B, or have both of them learn the position, and switch them back and forth, so as not to wear down a catcher. Salty has been taking grounders there; don't know if he has played there in a game, yet. I don't know if a team has ever really done this, though.

Yeah there is no way either of them is getting traded, even if at the moment they play the same position, because by next year they'll both be in the starting lineup no matter how they have to do it.

Flight #24
06-14-2007, 05:00 PM
Why do they think Crede will still be with us next year?

Joe won't have any trade value, and I can't see a guy coming off of surgery getting a huge arb award, so the Sox wouldn't have much incentive to non-tender him. Best for all involved is if Fields hits well, then they let Joe prove himself next year (Fields plays LF after trying it out in winter ball & ST), then they trade him once he shows he's productive. Or if both are productive and the team is doing well, they resign him and keep Fields in LF longterm.

FedEx227
06-14-2007, 05:10 PM
The problem is, as far as I know, is that both are good catchers defensively (nice problem to have). My idea would be to have both learn 1B (I know, easier said than done) and have each play 81 games at C and 1B, so as to keep them fresh (catchers often wear out, no?). I don't know if this is feasible at all or if there is any precedent, however.

What I think you'll see happen, if they don't trade Bryan Pena is find the one who's the better defender (I couldn't tell ya, they both impress me) and have that guy share time with Pena while the other holds down 1B day in and day out.

MRM
06-14-2007, 05:51 PM
I actually see it as the other way around. SP is our deepest position in the minors, OF seems rather questionable, especially given Dye's imminent departure. I see them spending on a free agent OF more than a SP, especially when they already have so much invested in Garland, Vazquez, and Contreras. With Danks looking good thus far, only one youngster needs to be broken in. Gio, Floyd, Russell, Broadway, McCulloch; there are quite a few to compete for one spot.

I love Ichiro, but I don't see giving the years and $$$ he's going to command for a 34yo RF. RF is much easier to replace than strong left handed starting pitching.

Either is probably a pipe dream, anyhow. Any kind of substantial drop in attendance for the remainder of the season (almost a given) is going to drop next years payroll. That's been made abundantly clear.

DickAllen72
06-14-2007, 05:57 PM
MRM:

We shall see...

FWIW when I was in Chicago last May visiting the team and speaking with some of the front office folks the name Ichiro was coming up then.

My take is this is another one of those players Kenny has been after for a few years and history shows he usually gets those players.

Lip
I always wanted to see the Sox acquire Ichiro. Now that he's finally going to be a free agent, my concern is with the Sox apparently no longer a contender, he's not going to be willing to sign here. Timing is everything and if he was a free agent in 2006, I bet he would have jumped at the chance to play here.

champagne030
06-14-2007, 06:44 PM
Any kind of substantial drop in attendance for the remainder of the season (almost a given) is going to drop next years payroll. That's been made abundantly clear.

Tickets have been sold. There will not be a significant drop in attendance for the remainder of the season. Butts in the seats might be a different story.

The question I have is what have Jerry and Co. been doing with the killing they've made the last two seasons with the major bump in revenue (media, ticket price bumps, ect.)? All in their pocket or have they been planning for this day?

JB98
06-14-2007, 06:45 PM
Nate Silver wrote an impressive article about the Sox today and their transition from 07 to 08. Incredibly thoughtful and well informed. He predicts the lineup could/will be:

It's interesting speculation. I still would rather have Iguchi than Castillo. We definitely need a change at SS, hopefully sooner rather than later. Obviously, we need to get younger and more athletic at all the outfield positions. Keep Erstad/Ozuna around as fourth and fifth outfielders, in the event that Sweeney fails. I'm pretty sure Ryan's full-time opportunity comes next year one way or another.

Will the organization move Fields to LF just to accomodate one more year of Crede? I sort of doubt that.

ilsox7
06-14-2007, 06:46 PM
Tickets have been sold. There will not be a significant drop in attendance for the remainder of the season. Butts in the seats might be a different story.

The question I have is what have Jerry and Co. been doing with the killing they've made the last two seasons with the major bump in revenue (media, ticket price bumps, ect.)? All in their pocket or have they been planning for this day?

Well, payroll went up around $30MM. That's a pretty huge increase.

Craig Grebeck
06-14-2007, 06:46 PM
It's interesting speculation. I still would rather have Iguchi than Castillo. We definitely need a change at SS, hopefully sooner rather than later. Obviously, we need to get younger and more athletic at all the outfield positions. Keep Erstad/Ozuna around as fourth and fifth outfielders, in the event that Sweeney fails. I'm pretty sure Ryan's full-time opportunity comes next year one way or another.

Will the organization move Fields to LF just to accomodate one more year of Crede? I sort of doubt that.
I love the idea of acquiring Lillibridge and hopefully another good middle infielder in any trade (Betemit?)

JB98
06-14-2007, 06:52 PM
I love the idea of acquiring Lillibridge and hopefully another good middle infielder in any trade (Betemit?)

Does Betemit play middle infield? I've only seen him play third, although I admittedly haven't seen much of him.

As I indicated, I want a new SS. We can't get rid of Uribe fast enough as far as I'm concerned. I'd call for his benching now if I thought we had a reasonable replacement somewhere in our organization. Unfortunately, we do not.

If we're not going to bring back Iguchi, I want to get younger at 2B. Castillo doesn't do much for me. He's still a plus defender, but he's an injury risk and he doesn't steal as many bags as he used to.

champagne030
06-14-2007, 06:53 PM
Well, payroll went up around $30MM. That's a pretty huge increase.

Okay. That just about covers the new TV, internet and other media revenues that MLB signed and distributes. What about the attendance related bump, plus increased ticket prices? They are already slightly less cash out of pocket this season than last based on the ticket increase alone. What about the Jim Beam Club? They were talking about $4M+ per year from that alone. Were's that going?

What about the new Extra Innings income too?

The Immigrant
06-14-2007, 06:54 PM
Well, payroll went up around $30MM. That's a pretty huge increase.

It's more like $20mm when you consider the money we received from the Phillies and D-Backs for Thome and Vazquez, but that's still a significant amount. I have no doubt that the team's revenues have increased by a greater amount since 2005 and I don't see payroll dropping below $95mm even if season ticket renewals plummet.

ilsox7
06-14-2007, 07:01 PM
It's more like $20mm when you consider the money we received from the Phillies and D-Backs for Thome and Vazquez, but that's still a significant amount. I have no doubt that the team's revenues have increased by a greater amount since 2005 and I don't see payroll dropping below $95mm even if season ticket renewals plummet.

Agreed. I think we'll stay in the $90-105MM range for the foreseeable future. I just don't think JR and his partners have pocketed tens of millions of dollars lately, as some others do.

DumpJerry
06-14-2007, 07:06 PM
Agreed. I think we'll stay in the $90-105MM range for the foreseeable future. I just don't think JR and his partners have pocketed tens of millions of dollars lately, as some others do.
Actually, in 35+ yeas of ownership, the consortium has received a dividend only once:2005.

I guy in my office knows one of the owners.

They are not "pocketing" any money.

champagne030
06-14-2007, 07:20 PM
Actually, in 35+ yeas of ownership, the consortium has received a dividend only once:2005.

I guy in my office knows one of the owners.

They are not "pocketing" any money.

Then were is it going? Scouting? Pending free agency? US Cellular improvements not covered by the agreement?

I'm not saying there's $20M out there in someone's pocket, but unless we were losing significant money in 2004 the Sox have been turning a fantastic profit 2005-2007.

champagne030
06-14-2007, 07:26 PM
Actually, in 35+ yeas of ownership, the consortium has received a dividend only once:2005.

I guy in my office knows one of the owners.

They are not "pocketing" any money.

Also, I'm not privy to the balance sheet of the White Sox, but nobody in the ownership group is hurting for money. They might have a nice chunk of change sitting there for the day the ownership group does tab out. No dividend doesn't mean they're not making a profit.

Again, I'm just curious. Maybe they were taking a bath 1997-2004.

The Immigrant
06-14-2007, 07:36 PM
Then were is it going? Scouting? Pending free agency? US Cellular improvements not covered by the agreement?


They could be paying down debt incurred in less profitable years. They could be building up cash reserves for capital improvements. The profits could be earmarked for long-term investments intended to lower the partnership's tax burden. "No dividends" does not equal "no profits", that's for sure.

I know a lady who bought into the Bulls and the Sox with Jerry's original ownership group. I can assure you that she's doing just fine.

Lip Man 1
06-14-2007, 08:48 PM
Well the value of the franchise has gone up astronomically since the group bought in in 1981 and when I interviewed Jimmy Piersall in May 2005 he said that he knows some of the owners and that the Sox "weren't losing any money for the past few years."

Lip

TheOldRoman
06-14-2007, 09:10 PM
I'm ignorant of Liilbridge, but if he's coming straight up for Burls, I'm assuming he's an extremely hotshot prospect, can't-miss type. I also know nothing of Fukodome, unless it's the 4th Mad Max movie.Actually, I'm pretty sure it's the porn version of Mad Max.
:duck:

MRM
06-14-2007, 09:59 PM
Okay. That just about covers the new TV, internet and other media revenues that MLB signed and distributes.

Wow. Where did you find the Sox balance sheet to learn what these numbers represent?

Jerry said he'll spend every last extra dime on the team, he just refuses to lose money. Until someone in here can produce genuine accounting #'s to prove otherwise, I believe him. And I agree with him. And I'm not a JR fan by any means. It's not all profit.

There are added costs with running a team drawing more fans, ya know. There is also the matter of massive stadium renovations, changing/upgrading the scouting staff, etc. All things he's done. Running a MLB team costs FAR more than just player salaries. People in here whine and cry because Jerry doesn't want to give huge signing bonus' to draft choices...well...that money comes out of the operations budget, too. If you give a draft choice a 5mil bonus, that's 5 mil that comes off the books THIS year. That's means it's 5mil that has to come from somewhere else. That 110mil payroll ONLY accounts for players on the MLB roster. Less than 5% of people employed by the team.

How anyone can complain about increasing the Player payroll by some 30mil in the two years since winning the W.S. is beyond me.

chaerulez
06-14-2007, 10:01 PM
I would like to the Sox go after either Andruw Jones or Ichrio. And trade Jose for prospects, he is old and inconsistent.

jdm2662
06-14-2007, 10:09 PM
Here is the Sox's financial summary according to Forbes magazine:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2007/33/07mlb_Chicago-White-Sox_334758.html

If you focus on the change in revenues, they are pretty consistant with the change in payroll. I don't see that behavior change. It's just a matter if the Sox can somehow generate more revenue this season despite the attendance going down. JR has said in the past if the attendance/revenue goes up, so will payroll. And, it did. However, I think we've learned by now it's not so much what you spend, it's how you spend it. Let's hope the Sox will spend their money wisely this offseason.

Overall, the White Sox are valued at $381 million, which is 15th in MLB.

MRM
06-14-2007, 10:27 PM
I would like to the Sox go after either Andruw Jones or Ichrio. And trade Jose for prospects, he is old and inconsistent.

Andruw Jones might just be the most over rated player in the game today and is going to cost as much as a small island. Ichiro is going to be 34yo and will cost as much as a large island. No thanks on both.

GAsoxfan
06-14-2007, 10:35 PM
I love the idea of acquiring Lillibridge and hopefully another good middle infielder in any trade (Betemit?)

If the Sox are going to get a SS from the Braves, I'd take Escobar over Lillibridge. Another guy I like is Matt Harrison. Harrison would fit in with Kenny's strategy of acquiring young pitchers.

Betemit was drafted as a SS, but the Braves had basically moved him to third by the time they traded him to the Dodgers. I haven't kept up with him since the trade, so I'm not sure where he's playing in LA. I always thought he would be a good get for the Sox though.

GAsoxfan
06-14-2007, 10:36 PM
What I think you'll see happen, if they don't trade Bryan Pena is find the one who's the better defender (I couldn't tell ya, they both impress me) and have that guy share time with Pena while the other holds down 1B day in and day out.

If one of them moves to first it will be Salty.

MRM
06-14-2007, 10:41 PM
Here is the Sox's financial summary according to Forbes magazine:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2007/33/07mlb_Chicago-White-Sox_334758.html



According to that, the big club had a net operating income of less than $20mil which doesn't account for taxes, minor league players and coaches, scouts, etc.

As the White Sox are not a publicly traded company this is all conjecture on the part of Forbes, but at least it's educated conjecture (better than the "I know someone who knows someone who's a minority owner" nonsense) and lends credence to the argument that management isn't just sitting on a cash cow while screwing the fans.

champagne030
06-14-2007, 11:02 PM
Wow. Where did you find the Sox balance sheet to learn what these numbers represent?

I didn't, but I'd like to see it because I don't believe it.

Jerry said he'll spend every last extra dime on the team, he just refuses to lose money. Until someone in here can produce genuine accounting #'s to prove otherwise, I believe him. And I agree with him. And I'm not a JR fan by any means. It's not all profit.

I'd didn't say Jerry is not spending it something else, but you can look up what the increases are in the new contracts, ticket prices, ect. and it doesn't add up to what we're spending on salary.

There are added costs with running a team drawing more fans, ya know. There is also the matter of massive stadium renovations, changing/upgrading the scouting staff, etc. All things he's done. Running a MLB team costs FAR more than just player salaries. People in here whine and cry because Jerry doesn't want to give huge signing bonus' to draft choices...well...that money comes out of the operations budget, too. If you give a draft choice a 5mil bonus, that's 5 mil that comes off the books THIS year. That's means it's 5mil that has to come from somewhere else. That 110mil payroll ONLY accounts for players on the MLB roster. Less than 5% of people employed by the team.

Stadium renovations should've been covered by the original agreement with the state and the naming rights with US. Cellular. And a $110M payroll doesn't mean that it's $110M cash out the door. We do NOT have 'cash out of pocket' payroll of $110M. Not even close.

How anyone can complain about increasing the Player payroll by some 30mil in the two years since winning the W.S. is beyond me.

It's NOT $30M when you consider what we're getting back for Thome, Javy, ect.

Do you have any idea how much the TV contracts in 2006 increased payouts to each club? Extra Innings? MLB.com? I guess you don't.

Where do you think the Royals got the money to sign Meche? It's not the new owner. A huge influx of revenue has come into each club with these new contracts.

Maybe that money is going to scouting Japan, China, Cuba, I don't know. The fact is they are making way more than they're paying the White Sox, benefits, front office employees, ect. Do your research and add it up. The profit is going somewhere. The question is where???

MRM
06-15-2007, 12:13 AM
It's NOT $30M when you consider what we're getting back for Thome, Javy, ect.

Do you have any idea how much the TV contracts in 2006 increased payouts to each club? Extra Innings? MLB.com? I guess you don't.

Where do you think the Royals got the money to sign Meche? It's not the new owner. A huge influx of revenue has come into each club with these new contracts.

Maybe that money is going to scouting Japan, China, Cuba, I don't know. The fact is they are making way more than they're paying the White Sox, benefits, front office employees, ect. Do your research and add it up. The profit is going somewhere. The question is where???

It IS 30mil. Where the revenue to increase it came from is meaningless. It's STILL 30mil higher than it was 2 years ago. It's absolutely ignorant to claim it's not.

I guess you better enlighten me on the exact share the Sox received from "increased" revenue from TV, .com, etc. I simply can't find concrete numbers on this. In fact, I can't find anything other than speculation.

The "research" you refer to is nonsense web site articles. The Sox are a PRIVATE corporation. Neither you, nor I, nor Forbes, nor anyone else has access to their balance sheet.

When someones friend of a friend of someone who "knows" a Sox minority owner obtains access to their accounting records and posts it, let me know. Until then you are whistling past the graveyard with these assumptions.

The Immigrant
06-15-2007, 08:37 AM
I guess you better enlighten me on the exact share the Sox received from "increased" revenue from TV, .com, etc. I simply can't find concrete numbers on this. In fact, I can't find anything other than speculation.

All of the new broadcasting deals are with publicly-held corporations, which means that this information is readily available from multiple sources. The XM Satellite deal, for instance, will net MLB some $650 million over ten years. The Extra Innings deal with DirectTV is worth $700 million over seven years. The new TV deal with Fox brings in more than $400 million annually, more than $100 million more than under the previous deal with Fox. The new 8-year TV deal with ESPN is worth approximately $2.4 billion ($300 million/year, a 50% increase over ESPN's last TV deal with MLB). Then there is the new 7-year TV deal with TBS. All of this, of course, is in addition to significantly increased local revenues from more lucrative TV deals and higher ticket prices, not to mention MLB Advanced Media (mlb.com) which is essentially a cash cow owned outright by MLB teams.

Although the exact share the White Sox received from the above deals is not available, it is reasonable to assume that the overall increase in the White Sox' revenues is greater than the increase in total payroll from $75 million in 2005 to $98 million (adjusted to reflect the $7 million we receive for Thome and $2.5 million for Vazquez) in 2007.

The White Sox have publicly said that they would pour any increased revenues from attendance right back into team payroll, but this commitment obviously does not apply to increased revenues from TV, radio and online broadcasting deals. Hence my statement that the nice old lady I know who owns a tiny piece of the White Sox is doing just fine.

FedEx227
06-15-2007, 08:39 AM
If one of them moves to first it will be Salty.

In fact, he did that exact thing last night against the Twins.

Flight #24
06-15-2007, 09:10 AM
Stadium renovations should've been covered by the original agreement with the state and the naming rights with US. Cellular. And a $110M payroll doesn't mean that it's $110M cash out the door. We do NOT have 'cash out of pocket' payroll of $110M. Not even close.

It's NOT $30M when you consider what we're getting back for Thome, Javy, ect.

I'm not getting into the new contracts revenues debate because I don't know what's happening with that $. But in terms of the payroll, IIRC, with Thome they got ~$4M (Sox pay him $8/yr), and with Javy it's $3M(Sox pay him ~$9). That still leaves you with ~$103M. And in terms of "cash out the door", that's before benefits costs, which IIRC run ~15-20% of payroll.

The other piece that I look at is historically. In general, there has been a strong correlation between attendance and payroll the following year, both up and down. That supports the argument that Sox are pouring incremental revenues into the club.

Also, haven't the Sox been investing in academies, etc? I recall something like that. But I am interested to see what if any impact these new contracts have on the team payroll. Other teams as you point out are upping payroll and there's tons of reports of it being because of this new cash coming in.

I'm getting more and more convinced that KW decided this team needed some rebuilding and that the 2007-8 offseason was the time to do it. So he's maximized his financial flexibility even at the cost of 2007 and loaded up on kids because he knows he can go to the market with a bushel of $$$ and get some studs. Maybe this needs to be in deep pink, but I'm thinking under that scenario that his first target is ARod and #2 Buehrle (or maybe Zambrano).

Tragg
06-16-2007, 10:20 AM
I agree with this theme that this is a fixable situation. Our depth is in pitching, so, as someone else pointed out, that might mean we should trade MB, or start working deals to get position players for our pitching prospects. It will also require us to give some young hitters some serious, honest and consistent playing time, and befor September garbage time, to see what they've got.

FarWestChicago
06-16-2007, 03:09 PM
Nate Silver wrote an impressive article about the Sox today and their transition from 07 to 08. Incredibly thoughtful and well informed.What does Nate Silver's colon smell like?

kittle42
06-16-2007, 03:39 PM
What does Nate Silver's colon smell like?

West, did you read it? It actually is good, and Silver admits he's writing it from his perspective as a Sox fan.

Just because it's from BP doesn't make it bad 100% of the time.

FarWestChicago
06-16-2007, 03:42 PM
Just because it's from BP doesn't make it bad 100% of the time.99.99999% is close enough for me. Who really gives a crap about what happens 6 places after the decimal point? :D:

FedEx227
06-17-2007, 05:25 PM
99.99999% is close enough for me. Who really gives a crap about what happens 6 places after the decimal point? :D:

VORP does :tongue:



(Even as a stathead I can't stand VORP and PECOTA)

captainclutch24
06-17-2007, 10:38 PM
I want Josh Fields to be starting in 2008 nevermind my screenname

Craig Grebeck
06-17-2007, 10:45 PM
What does Nate Silver's colon smell like?
What's Joe Morgan's?

Jjav829
06-17-2007, 11:25 PM
I'm really liking the idea of acquiring Billingsley. I'm a big fan.

I'm not so much a fan of Crede being our #5 hitter next season.

FarWestChicago
06-18-2007, 06:23 PM
What's Joe Morgan's?:dunno: What does Joe Morgan have to do with anything?

Craig Grebeck
06-18-2007, 06:43 PM
:dunno: What does Joe Morgan have to do with anything?
What did your comment have to do with anything? I thought the article was great. Since I thought the article was great, you proceeded to insinuate that I either live inside Nate Silver's *******, or spend a great deal of time investigating it. Both of which are incredibly immature and neither relevant nor polite.

Refute one observation I made about the article. One.

kittle42
06-18-2007, 06:57 PM
What did your comment have to do with anything? I thought the article was great. Since I thought the article was great, you proceeded to insinuate that I either live inside Nate Silver's *******, or spend a great deal of time investigating it. Both of which are incredibly immature and neither relevant nor polite.

Refute one observation I made about the article. One.

You can't give anything about BP any kudos here, even a pretty dead on article written by a Sox fan about the Sox. :cool:

FarWestChicago
06-18-2007, 06:58 PM
Both of which are incredibly immature and neither relevant nor polite.Get over yourself. You take yourself way too seriously. It was a joke. You didn't like it. Fine. But, I wasn't trying to be mature or polite. So, your comment is irrelevant. :redneck

FarWestChicago
06-18-2007, 06:59 PM
You can't give anything about BP any kudos here...Sure you can. But, somebody will get on your case. :D: