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Chicken Dinner
06-06-2007, 01:33 PM
With 108 games left, the Sox would have to go 64-44 to reach 90 wins. 90 wins probably won't get you into the playoffs but that would definitely be the bottom number. Most likely it will be around 94-95. That means with the remaining games, we need to go 25 games over .500. Certainly not impossible but the current way we're playing could sink this ship quickly.

bryPt
06-06-2007, 01:37 PM
thanks for that dark cloud.

oeo
06-06-2007, 01:39 PM
With 108 games left, the Sox would have to go 64-44 to reach 90 wins. 90 wins probably won't get you into the playoffs but that would definitely be the bottom number. Most likely it will be around 94-95. That means with the remaining games, we need to go 25 games over .500. Certainly not impossible but the current way we're playing could sink this ship quickly.

If the Sox and Twins turn around, and the Wild Card comes from this division, it's going to take less than 94-95 games.

UserNameBlank
06-06-2007, 01:42 PM
With 108 games left, the Sox would have to go 64-44 to reach 90 wins. 90 wins probably won't get you into the playoffs but that would definitely be the bottom number. Most likely it will be around 94-95. That means with the remaining games, we need to go 25 games over .500. Certainly not impossible but the current way we're playing could sink this ship quickly.

Agreed.

I don't need some PECOTA worshippers to have calculator sex with each other in order to believe our playoff chances are pretty small. Just look at how we've been losing games.

Chicken Dinner
06-06-2007, 01:43 PM
If the Sox and Twins turn around, and the Wild Card comes from this division, it's going to take less than 94-95 games.

Last year the WC came from the central with 95.

stl_sox_fan
06-06-2007, 02:03 PM
Agreed.

I don't need some PECOTA worshippers to have calculator sex with each other in order to believe our playoff chances are pretty small. Just look at how we've been losing games.

10 points for mentioning the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm.

sox1970
06-06-2007, 02:07 PM
Looking forward to the break, so these math problems will become moot.

WhiteSox5187
06-06-2007, 04:22 PM
Oy, not impossible, but with the way this team is playing, it certainly isn't probable.

WizardsofOzzie
06-06-2007, 05:47 PM
Last year the WC came from the central with 95.
Correct. However, Minnesota had a record of 25-32 on this day last year, 11.5 games behind Detroit, and they ended up winning 96 games and the division....It's not impossible

billyvsox
06-06-2007, 06:53 PM
I think realistically we can go 20-12 before the break witch will put us at 46-40 and in definate striking distance. This is being conservative:

1-1 vs yanks (today & tommorrow)
2-1 vs hou
2-1 vs phil
2-1 vs pitt
2-1 vs fla
2-1 vs cubbie
2-2 vs tampa
2-1 vs kc
3-1 vs balt
2-2 vs minn

Plus we may be able to sweep Hou, Fla, Cubbie and go 3-1 vs Minny since they are all at home. That would get us 50-36 an ON FIRE.

I have 2 fears:

1) We do this before the break and the time off will screw us up like last year.
2) We play red hot until the Twins come here, and they Infield Hit their way to 3 or 4 wins and we go dejected into the all-star break.