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View Full Version : Oddsmakers still predict 4th place for Sox


SouthSideSoxFan
04-24-2007, 09:26 AM
This morning's predicted 2007 AL Central finish, as a tight race:

Detroit Tigers (28.5% chance of winning division)
Cleveland Indians (27% ")
Minnesota Twins (24.5% ")
Chicago White Sox (18.7% ")
Kansas City Royals (1% ")

In January, bookmakers had the odds at 35% chance of the White Sox winning the division, going down to 25% by opening day after spring training, and drifting down to 18% by 4/18. After that, it has started to go up just a little every day... I bet you could chart the odds against the feel of the forums and it'd be pretty close. :)

Rowandws33
04-24-2007, 09:28 AM
The Sox always play better when people doubt them...

WizardsofOzzie
04-24-2007, 09:32 AM
:whocares

jenn2080
04-24-2007, 09:38 AM
:whocares:

WizardsofOzzie
04-24-2007, 09:41 AM
:whocares:
Copycat :smile:

Vestigio
04-24-2007, 09:58 AM
Funny, after I saw the competition we have in the division, the Twins (predicted to come in 3rd) seem to be our toughest competition for the division title

BainesHOF
04-24-2007, 10:17 AM
Right now the odds say we have the best chance in our division to make the playoffs, barely edging the Indians:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

johnr1note
04-24-2007, 10:23 AM
This morning's predicted 2007 AL Central finish, as a tight race:

Detroit Tigers (28.5% chance of winning division)
Cleveland Indians (27% ")
Minnesota Twins (24.5% ")
Chicago White Sox (18.7% ")
Kansas City Royals (1% ")

In January, bookmakers had the odds at 35% chance of the White Sox winning the division, going down to 25% by opening day after spring training, and drifting down to 18% by 4/18. After that, it has started to go up just a little every day... I bet you could chart the odds against the feel of the forums and it'd be pretty close. :)

Considering no team in the AL Central has had a "fast start" like the Sox did in 2005, if things continue the way they are, there is a distinct possibility the Sox could play well and finish as far down as fourth, just a few games out of first. Of course, that would entail the Central's top 4 teams basically playing .500 ball against each other, and then seeing how well they do against non-disvisional opponents.

itsnotrequired
04-24-2007, 10:38 AM
I gave up on the Sox in the offseason. Oddsmakers dictate how I live my life.

:rolleyes:

D. TODD
04-24-2007, 10:51 AM
The Sox can easily end up in 4th, and they can easily win the division. Take the bet if you like, you are getting pretty good odds there. Again, as it has been stated before, the odds are set by how much action they get on all ends. It does not show the book makers predictions, just what odds they can give to get the betting public to split their money on all options ensuring a win by the "juice" for the book.

Luke
04-24-2007, 10:55 AM
If you're offended by oddsmakers, it's important to remember; They don't make odds based on how they think the teams will finish, who will win, or what the spread is. They make the odds based on the vig.

When they pick the Sox for 4th, they're saying "we think enough people will agree with this pick, and be interested that they'll take this bet, and make us money"

I'm not going to get too worked up over oddsmakers.

sox1970
04-24-2007, 11:20 AM
Odds, Power rankings, beat writers, columnists, radio hosts, Baseball Tonight morons.... WHO CARES?

WizardsofOzzie
04-24-2007, 11:46 AM
If you're offended by oddsmakers, it's important to remember; They don't make odds based on how they think the teams will finish, who will win, or what the spread is. They make the odds based on the vig.

When they pick the Sox for 4th, they're saying "we think enough people will agree with this pick, and be interested that they'll take this bet, and make us money"

I'm not going to get too worked up over oddsmakers.
Good point. If you look the Cubs are running at 20/1 to win the world series, even though they have the worst record in the worst division in baseball. And shouldn't this be in What's the Score???

TDog
04-24-2007, 01:05 PM
Oddsmakers don't predict. They set odds in order to make themselves money no matter who wins. If White Sox fans are too smart to bet on baseball, their team is going to have longer odds to entice people to make it about money instead of baseball.

Oddsmakers aren't about baseball. They're in it for the money.

Rockman218
04-24-2007, 04:29 PM
in 2005, they were picked to finish 4th in the AL central. I see this as a good sign.:cool:

MCHSoxFan
04-24-2007, 05:16 PM
in 2005, they were picked to finish 4th in the AL central. I see this as a good sign.:cool:

Yep!!! :D:

MDF3530
04-24-2007, 05:20 PM
If anyone wants to know how I think oddsmakers do their prognosticating, PM me :cool: .

Eddo144
04-24-2007, 05:41 PM
This morning's predicted 2007 AL Central finish, as a tight race:

Detroit Tigers (28.5% chance of winning division)
Cleveland Indians (27% ")
Minnesota Twins (24.5% ")
Chicago White Sox (18.7% ")
Kansas City Royals (1% ")

In January, bookmakers had the odds at 35% chance of the White Sox winning the division, going down to 25% by opening day after spring training, and drifting down to 18% by 4/18. After that, it has started to go up just a little every day... I bet you could chart the odds against the feel of the forums and it'd be pretty close. :)

I'm curious as to where you found those. Without context, those don't look like odds, but rather projections, similar to Baseball Prospectus's. Generally, Vegas oddsmakers don't give odds in a percentage format.

That said, I could easily see any order of finish for the top four teams in the AL Central. All four are good teams, but it's not like they don't have flaws. Look at last year's Red Sox team to see how fortunes can change over the course of a year; they finished in third.

Soxfanspcu11
04-25-2007, 03:20 AM
This morning's predicted 2007 AL Central finish, as a tight race:

Detroit Tigers (28.5% chance of winning division)
Cleveland Indians (27% ")
Minnesota Twins (24.5% ")
Chicago White Sox (18.7% ")
Kansas City Royals (1% ")

In January, bookmakers had the odds at 35% chance of the White Sox winning the division, going down to 25% by opening day after spring training, and drifting down to 18% by 4/18. After that, it has started to go up just a little every day... I bet you could chart the odds against the feel of the forums and it'd be pretty close. :)

The following tag is here for a reason, and it could never be more appropriate!

:whocares

dcb56
04-25-2007, 04:10 AM
This morning's predicted 2007 AL Central finish, as a tight race:

Detroit Tigers (28.5% chance of winning division)
Cleveland Indians (27% ")
Minnesota Twins (24.5% ")
Chicago White Sox (18.7% ")
Kansas City Royals (1% ")

In January, bookmakers had the odds at 35% chance of the White Sox winning the division, going down to 25% by opening day after spring training, and drifting down to 18% by 4/18. After that, it has started to go up just a little every day... I bet you could chart the odds against the feel of the forums and it'd be pretty close. :)

OK, first of all these are only odds of winning the division, not odds of where teams will finish within the division (and since when were odds given in percentages anyway?). Based on the information you provided there is nothing to suggest that this particular oddsmaker is "predicting" the Sox to finish fourth, rather they are setting the odds of the Sox winning the division behind that of Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detroit. Not quite the same thing.

Regardless of what the odds are, they aren't predictions anyway. Oddsmakers only job is to set odds that will entice an equal amount of people on both sides to bet and thus guarantee them a profit. If you think the Sox are undervalued based on the odds given, then perhaps you should consider wagering on them instead griping about it. Then again based on your post I wouldn't recommend gambling on baseball.

SBSoxFan
04-25-2007, 09:32 AM
Then again based on your post I wouldn't recommend gambling on baseball.

:rolling: ouch!

voodoochile
04-25-2007, 09:49 AM
Funny, after I saw the competition we have in the division, the Twins (predicted to come in 3rd) seem to be our toughest competition for the division title

They've already played Baltimore, Seattle, Tampa and KC this year. The only quality teams they have played are NY, Cleveland and us.

Don't mistake a good start for a quality team, when the schedule evens out, they are not going to like the results, IMO.

palehozenychicty
04-25-2007, 10:17 AM
They've already played Baltimore, Seattle, Tampa and KC this year. The only quality teams they have played are NY, Cleveland and us.

Don't mistake a good start for a quality team, when the schedule evens out, they are not going to like the results, IMO.

Indeed. You can't win with one starting pitcher. And no, Ramon Ortiz does not count. :tongue: