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View Full Version : Smallball vs. HRs


RockyMtnSoxFan
04-02-2007, 08:38 PM
The mlb.com article (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070402&content_id=1874656&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws) had a surprising stat from last year: 45.9% of last year's runs scored on home runs.

Walker is quoted as saying that HRs will continue, because the middle of the order is a bunch of big guys. I agree that Thome, Konerko, and Dye are not up there to bunt guys over or hit behind the runner, but I think pretty much everyone else in the lineup should at least be capable of doing that when it might be advantageous. I think one reason the '05 team did so well, and had so much success in close games, was because they were able to produce runs consistently, and they had to play together as a team in order to do it.

Ozzie has talked about bringing back small ball or whatever you want to call it, but it looks like another smokescreen. It'll be up to Pods to try to bring it back by himself.

JB98
04-02-2007, 08:43 PM
The mlb.com article (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070402&content_id=1874656&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws) had a surprising stat from last year: 45.9% of last year's runs scored on home runs.

Walker is quoted as saying that HRs will continue, because the middle of the order is a bunch of big guys. I agree that Thome, Konerko, and Dye are not up there to bunt guys over or hit behind the runner, but I think pretty much everyone else in the lineup should at least be capable of doing that when it might be advantageous. I think one reason the '05 team did so well, and had so much success in close games, was because they were able to produce runs consistently, and they had to play together as a team in order to do it.

Ozzie has talked about bringing back small ball or whatever you want to call it, but it looks like another smokescreen. It'll be up to Pods to try to bring it back by himself.

You're ready to make this declaration after one game? We scored five runs today. Pitching, specifically starting pitching, was the problem. Not the offense. Give up eight runs in one-plus inning, and you're going to lose.

If Contreras had thrown a one-hit shutout today and we had won 5-0, this thread would not exist.

Basically, Iguchi failed with the bases loaded. That was the one opportunity we biffed today. It happens. You can't come through 100 percent of the time.

santo=dorf
04-02-2007, 08:45 PM
42.4% of the runs in 2005 were scored off of home runs. WOW what a difference.

It has always been about the pitching, mostly the starters, but also the bullpen.

RockyMtnSoxFan
04-02-2007, 08:48 PM
You're ready to make this declaration after one game? We scored five runs today. Pitching, specifically starting pitching, was the problem. Not the offense. Give up eight runs in one-plus inning, and you're going to lose.

If Contreras had thrown a one-hit shutout today and we had won 5-0, this thread would not exist.

Basically, Iguchi failed with the bases loaded. That was the one opportunity we biffed today. It happens. You can't come through 100 percent of the time.

Nowhere did I reference today's game. I was just making an observation about the effect of swinging for the fences vs. playing small ball like Ozzie supposedly prefers. And I did not know about the statistic from 2005.

I agree with santo, pitching is the main ingredient. But consistency on offense would be nice as well.

UserNameBlank
04-02-2007, 08:53 PM
You're ready to make this declaration after one game? We scored five runs today. Pitching, specifically starting pitching, was the problem. Not the offense. Give up eight runs in one-plus inning, and you're going to lose.

If Contreras had thrown a one-hit shutout today and we had won 5-0, this thread would not exist.

Basically, Iguchi failed with the bases loaded. That was the one opportunity we biffed today. It happens. You can't come through 100 percent of the time.
I agree on Iguchi. CC made a good pitch on him and got him out in front, and in a blowout like today, you really can't call that a missed opportunity. 9 runs in the first 2 innings plus facing one of the top 5 lefties in baseball isn't going to equal a win.

JB98
04-02-2007, 08:53 PM
Nowhere did I reference today's game. I was just making an observation about the effect of swinging for the fences vs. playing small ball like Ozzie supposedly prefers. And I did not know about the statistic from 2005.

I agree with santo, pitching is the main ingredient. But consistency on offense would be nice as well.

So you want to talk about how guys swung for the fences too much last year then?

I don't recall us being a small ball team at any point during the last 15 years.

UserNameBlank
04-02-2007, 08:56 PM
The mlb.com article (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070402&content_id=1874656&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws) had a surprising stat from last year: 45.9% of last year's runs scored on home runs.

Walker is quoted as saying that HRs will continue, because the middle of the order is a bunch of big guys. I agree that Thome, Konerko, and Dye are not up there to bunt guys over or hit behind the runner, but I think pretty much everyone else in the lineup should at least be capable of doing that when it might be advantageous. I think one reason the '05 team did so well, and had so much success in close games, was because they were able to produce runs consistently, and they had to play together as a team in order to do it.

Ozzie has talked about bringing back small ball or whatever you want to call it, but it looks like another smokescreen. It'll be up to Pods to try to bring it back by himself.
"Smallball" is going to become very, very important again if we have a worthwhile bullpen and I agree that everyone other than our 4 home run hitters should be able to do all the little things. Ozzie apparently agrees as well since he dedicated a field in ST just for that.

Still, unless the pitching is there to keep the game close, you just can't give up outs. I wouldn't say there is any "smokescreen" anywhere. If this was a 3-2, 4-3 type game you would have seen some smallball.

JB98
04-02-2007, 08:57 PM
I agree on Iguchi. CC made a good pitch on him and got him out in front, and in a blowout like today, you really can't call that a missed opportunity. 9 runs in the first 2 innings plus facing one of the top 5 lefties in baseball isn't going to equal a win.

Well, if Iguchi gets an extra-base hit there, we're back in the game. Even still, the odds would have been against us. You are right.

It just seems like we've got a bunch of people needlessly fretting about the offense tonight. "Oh, God! No consistency! No small ball! Home run or nothing! Here we go again!"

If you had told me this morning that we'd score five runs in a game started by Sabathia, I would have taken it. I'll take five runs whether it comes on five solo home runs, or on eight consecutive bunt singles. I don't really care either way. The bottom line is Jose gave us no chance today.

santo=dorf
04-02-2007, 09:00 PM
Nowhere did I reference today's game. I was just making an observation about the effect of swinging for the fences vs. playing small ball like Ozzie supposedly prefers. And I did not know about the statistic from 2005.

I agree with santo, pitching is the main ingredient. But consistency on offense would be nice as well.
The 2005 team was more consistent than the 2006, but that basically meant they consistently scored 2 or 4 runs. The 2006 team average more runs per game and had more variance, but that just meant they were scoring 4-8 runs per game. Again, it all comes down to the pitching.
2005:
Sum 741.00Average 4.57Median 4.5Standard devitation 2.880229Variance 8.295721

2006:
sum 868average 5.358025median 5.00Standard devitation 3.370713Variance 11.36171

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=5277&d=1175561999

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=5278&d=1175562006
http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=5279&d=1175562025

UserNameBlank
04-02-2007, 09:02 PM
Well, if Iguchi gets an extra-base hit there, we're back in the game. Even still, the odds would have been against us. You are right.

It just seems like we've got a bunch of people needlessly fretting about the offense tonight. "Oh, God! No consistency! No small ball! Home run or nothing! Here we go again!"

If you had told me this morning that we'd score five runs in a game started by Sabathia, I would have taken it. I'll take five runs whether it comes on five solo home runs, or on eight consecutive bunt singles. I don't really care either way. The bottom line is Jose gave us no chance today.
Exactly. Against CC, you really can't even go into the game expecting 5 runs from the offense. In a playoff race against him, Bonderman, Rogers, Verlander, I'd even take 3 or 4. Against Johan, I'd take 2. The pitching is going to win or lose this division for us.

That aside, I was pretty impressed with our pen today. Masset didn't **** the bed and looked pretty good here and there. Sisco and Jenks looked great, and Aardsma had a hiccup but pitched a 1-2-3 first inning. Normally one inning is all Aardsma will have to work.

RockyMtnSoxFan
04-02-2007, 09:11 PM
Santo, where did you find that data? I just went looking for data like that. I found a site called baseball-databank.org. They have compiled a database of statistics, but I don't know SQL and I could neither make sense of the text files nor find adequate documentation. I would like to find raw data for my own interest, though, and I don't want to try to go through old box scores to compile it.

santo=dorf
04-02-2007, 09:18 PM
\ I don't want to try to go through old box scores to compile it.
Well that's what I did. :D:

I just did some kind of special paste in excel, a little editing, and threw the numbers together.

not clr01
04-02-2007, 09:20 PM
[QUOTE=santo=dorf;1524450]42.4% of the runs in 2005 were scored off of home runs. WOW what a difference.



84 runs :dunno:

WhiteSox5187
04-02-2007, 09:25 PM
Well obviously any lineup that has Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye is going to hit a lot of homeruns, throw Jim Thome in the mix you have more homeruns. The one thing this lineup can do is hit, I don't care how they win whether through small ball or homeruns, but so long as they win, I don't care. A run is a run.

Corlose 15
04-02-2007, 09:37 PM
I'm not sure what the debate is here. Obviously you want Dye, Thome, Konerko, Crede hitting home runs and Pods Erstad/Iguchi, Ozuna, Anderson, Uribe playing more the situational small ball style though Uribe is a bit of a power hitter as well. If you can do both effectively it makes you hard to beat because you can get shut down by a good pitcher and still scratch out some runs with good execution and pull out a win.

What makes that possible though is good pitching starting with the rotation. The Sox didn't have that in the 2nd half last year and the bullpen was weak ergo, they faded.

Its all going to come down to the rotation IMO, so far the BP looks good.

That said, its one game. We've got a long way to go.

IlliniSox4Life
04-02-2007, 10:14 PM
The problem wasn't situation hitting, it was situational pitching. You win 1run games by stopping your opponents from scoring, not from scoring yourself.

guillen4life13
04-02-2007, 10:53 PM
The 2005 team was more consistent than the 2006, but that basically meant they consistently scored 2 or 4 runs. The 2006 team average more runs per game and had more variance, but that just meant they were scoring 4-8 runs per game. Again, it all comes down to the pitching.
2005:
Sum 741.00Average 4.57Median 4.5Standard devitation 2.880229Variance 8.295721

2006:
sum 868average 5.358025median 5.00Standard devitation 3.370713Variance 11.36171

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=5277&d=1175561999

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=5278&d=1175562006
http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=5279&d=1175562025

Is that maple/matlab? It looks familiar but I can't remember what program it is.

IlliniSox4Life
04-02-2007, 11:08 PM
Is that maple/matlab? It looks familiar but I can't remember what program it is.

It looks like just excel.

RockyMtnSoxFan
04-03-2007, 12:47 AM
For santo, and anyone else who is interested, www.retrosheet.org has compiled statistics for individual games. They have most of the statistics that could be found in a line score. They don't have individual stats, however, meaning you can tell how many HRs each team hit, but not who hit them or how many were on base. The data are compiled into a single file for all games during an individual season. As a footnote, the umpires are listed as well, so it would be possible to find out if the Sox actually are affected by Wendelstedt.