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rdivaldi
03-12-2007, 12:55 PM
I really wonder who at BP pulls off the street to write these inane articles.

Read at your own discretion (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5949)

Don't Believe The Hype: Pitching in Double-A as a 20-year-old, Gio Gonzalez struck out over a batter per inning, so there's some good stuff there. At the same time, he has major control issues, and his lanky, sub-six-foot frame leaves many wondering if he has the durability to start in the big leagues.

That pretty much sums up the quality of this article. Regurgitating the unsubstatitated durability issue and creating a new myth about "major control issues." There is little doubt in my mind that this guy looked at stat sheets and has never seen any of our prospects actually play.

RoobarbPie
03-12-2007, 01:17 PM
I thought that Kevin Goldstein who used to work for Baseball America wrote most (if not all) of the BP minor league stuff. I would guess that he's probably seen Gio either in person or on tape before. I'm not saying I agree with the article, but I do think he usually has an informed opinion about prospects.

DMarte708
03-12-2007, 01:22 PM
I really wonder who at BP pulls off the street to write these inane articles.

Read at your own discretion (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5949)



That pretty much sums up the quality of this article. Regurgitating the unsubstatitated durability issue and creating a new myth about "major control issues." There is little doubt in my mind that this guy looked at stat sheets and has never seen any of our prospects actually play.
There's no myth concerning his control issues. 81 walks in 154 innings is BAD.

kidmccarthy
03-12-2007, 01:28 PM
Yeah, they always have questionable write-ups. Check this one from the same article:

Don't Believe The Hype: Acquired from the White Sox for Mike MacDougal (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/macdomi01.php), righty Tyler Lumsden (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/LUMSDEN19830509A.php) is a big-bodied lefty with excellent velocity, but the stats just don't match the stuff, especially when it comes to missing bats.Man, why would we ever trade a righty who is also a lefty...:cool:

rdivaldi
03-12-2007, 01:51 PM
There's no myth concerning his control issues. 81 walks in 154 innings is BAD.

Oh yes there is. That quote you just made is a case in point of reading a stat sheet and not watching a guy pitch. Gio's walk rate was steadily declining at every stop until he got traded to Philly where his BB/9 jumped waaay up and that's as twenty year old pitching in AA. Gio's control is fine.

rdivaldi
03-12-2007, 01:54 PM
I thought that Kevin Goldstein who used to work for Baseball America wrote most (if not all) of the BP minor league stuff. I would guess that he's probably seen Gio either in person or on tape before. I'm not saying I agree with the article, but I do think he usually has an informed opinion about prospects.

Yep, you're right. I wonder how someone who has such extensive experience could be so off. Perhaps writing for BP has clouded his vision.
:D:

SBSoxFan
03-12-2007, 03:00 PM
I really wonder who at BP pulls off the street to write these inane articles.

Read at your own discretion (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5949)



That pretty much sums up the quality of this article. Regurgitating the unsubstatitated durability issue and creating a new myth about "major control issues." There is little doubt in my mind that this guy looked at stat sheets and has never seen any of our prospects actually play.

Ron Guidry, he was a diminutive lefty, wasn't he? Pretty durable if I recall.

Save McCuddy's
03-12-2007, 03:08 PM
The blurb on the whole is a fairly accurate assessment. It'd be pretty tough to find a write up that you're going to agree with every aspect of. Plus, the 81 walks is high -- and how many stops do you have to judge a declining walk-rate when he was 20 last season? Lighten up a little bit. BP doesn't have any impact on our wins and losses.

rdivaldi
03-12-2007, 03:15 PM
The blurb on the whole is a fairly accurate assessment. It'd be pretty tough to find a write up that you're going to agree with every aspect of. Plus, the 81 walks is high -- and how many stops do you have to judge a declining walk-rate when he was 20 last season? Lighten up a little bit. BP doesn't have any impact on our wins and losses.

The 81 walks is a high number, however like I said before that appears to be a blip when compared to the rest of his stops over his very short career. Looking at a stat sheet is one thing, but witnessing a player is another. In person I've not seen much to tell me that Gio has "control problems". I would be surprised if Gio walks more than 3.1- 3.2 batters per 9 this year. Not great, but absolutely acceptable for a 20/21 year old in AAA.

I will try to take it down a notch, but BP is very good at getting my blood pressure up a couple of ticks when it comes to prospect ratings.

soxtalker
03-12-2007, 03:54 PM
The blurb on the whole is a fairly accurate assessment. It'd be pretty tough to find a write up that you're going to agree with every aspect of. Plus, the 81 walks is high -- and how many stops do you have to judge a declining walk-rate when he was 20 last season? Lighten up a little bit. BP doesn't have any impact on our wins and losses.

I agree. The write up looked pretty accurate -- actually, with the exception of a couple of tidbits (like the Gio comment), there wasn't a whole lot new beyond what we've been hearing from the team, local media, and here on WSI.

The parts of the summary (the main article being part of their subscription service, which I don't have) that I found more interesting were the reports on the other teams. In particular, the Twins always seem to have a few players ready to bring up. But it sure didn't sound like it for this year.

KRS1
03-12-2007, 05:30 PM
The 81 walks is a high number, however like I said before that appears to be a blip when compared to the rest of his stops over his very short career. Looking at a stat sheet is one thing, but witnessing a player is another. In person I've not seen much to tell me that Gio has "control problems". I would be surprised if Gio walks more than 3.1- 3.2 batters per 9 this year. Not great, but absolutely acceptable for a 20/21 year old in AAA.


Youre also neglecting to mention the umpire issue last year, which everyone claims skewed stats across the board. Everything you said is absolutely true. These guys use stats and numbers to project a players ability, and that only tells you half of the story. I would love to hear anyone at BP claim they have left the office and actually watched one of the many prospects they claim to be in touch with. Then ask them to give an actual scouting report like breaking down a pitchers motion or a hitters swing. These guys are not scouts, and there's a very good reason for that.

Vestigio
03-13-2007, 10:55 AM
I wonder, like Gio, if Oswalt was also criticized because of his size when he was coming up through the Astros system...

ma-gaga
03-13-2007, 11:35 AM
I wonder, like Gio, if Oswalt was also criticized because of his size when he was coming up through the Astros system...

Well, they have some of their historical notes available. I'd have to dig thru and see if I have a copy of the 1999 and 1998 books. I'm pretty sure I do, but I don't know if I'm willing to type it up:


(http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/comments/index.php?playerId=33&commentYear=2001)
2001
The Astros thought highly of Roy Oswalt after a promising 1999, but no one expected this. Oswalt started last season pitching for Kissimmee, and by the end of the year he was an Olympic star after posting the first ERA under 2.00 in the Texas League in ten years. While the Astros claim he still needs to work on things like fielding and holding runners, they say that about all their pitchers. Talent like this won’t stay on the farm beyond about midseason.

2000
From modest beginnings--he was a 23rd-round draft pick in 1996--Oswalt has become a highly-regarded prospect. He missed half of 1998 while rehabbing from a sprained elbow but was healthy last year and very impressive in the Midwest League. His curveball may be the best in the organization, and his fastball tops out in the mid-90s. Along with Nannini, Oswalt gives Houston a second wave of pitching prospects as a fallback if their more polished prospects flop.


Then ask them to give an actual scouting report like breaking down a pitchers motion or a hitters swing. These guys are not scouts, and there's a very good reason for that.

I emailed him to see if he personally scouted Gio, or what he thought of the umpiring situation.

The 81 walks is a high number, however like I said before that appears to be a blip when compared to the rest of his stops over his very short career. Looking at a stat sheet is one thing, but witnessing a player is another. In person I've not seen much to tell me that Gio has "control problems". I would be surprised if Gio walks more than 3.1- 3.2 batters per 9 this year. Not great, but absolutely acceptable for a 20/21 year old in AAA.

I will try to take it down a notch, but BP is very good at getting my blood pressure up a couple of ticks when it comes to prospect ratings.

Then why do you bother reading them?? If they make you angry, I don't get why you continue to support them. Or do they only bother you when they make a half-assed comment that doesn't mesh with your perception??

I mean jeeze. Looking at Gio, (and I ain't a minor league expert), he had a pretty BAD year last year jumping up to AA. 154 innings, 166 strikeouts :thumbsup:, 81 walks. 1.44 WHIP. And I have no idea what kind of context the league has in terms of the stats... What an average WHIP would be, strikeout rate, whatever. But the kid is really too young right now to "box". And if you are claiming that BP says that Gio will "NEVER EVER BE GOOD, NO MATTER WHAT", I think you need to readjust your attitude on them.

:gulp:

rdivaldi
03-13-2007, 11:54 AM
Then why do you bother reading them??

Because I'm a glutton for punishment?

jabrch
03-13-2007, 12:36 PM
Where does BP have Gio ranked amonst minor league LHP? Most things I have read have him in the top 5, some as high as #3 behind Sowers and Danks.

ma-gaga
03-13-2007, 02:11 PM
Where does BP have Gio ranked amonst minor league LHP? Most things I have read have him in the top 5, some as high as #3 behind Sowers and Danks.

I don't know exactly, and I can't seem to find it very quickly. Here is his writeup from a couple of months ago. I hesistate posting this, because I know how you feel about people who "waste their money" by buying this "crap". :cool:

4. Gio Gonzalez, lhp
What he did in 2006: 4.66 ERA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA) at AA (154.2-140-81-166)
The Good: Averaged over a strikeout per inning in Double-A as a 20-year-old. Fastball has average-to-good velocity for a southpaw (88-91 mph), but curveball is a plus-plus pitch that generates swings and misses whether it's thrown for strikes or not. Changeup is average.
The Bad: Gonzalez' control is either there or not, depending on the day. He is a flyball pitcher who is prone to giving up home runs, and he doesn't get much of a downward plane on his fastball because of his height.
The Irrelevant: Gonzalez missed the end of his senior season at Monsignor Pace High School when his mother got into an argument with the head coach about the lack of playing time for Gonzalez' little brother.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A No. 4 starter.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. The White Sox were the original team to draft Gonzalez, and now they've reacquired him in the Freddy Garcia (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Freddy+Garcia) trade. He'll begin the year at one of the two upper level teams, depending on the spring training numbers game. At his age, he can afford a return to Double-A.

Obviously, it's not as optimistic as most people here would want it to be. The #4 is his prospect ranking in the W.Sox system (Danks = #1). They don't consider Sowers a prospect any more.

Sowers 2006 commentary:
Sowers is one of six 2004 first-rounders, all college pitchers, to get as far as Triple-A in 2005. Of those, only two excelled at every level they reached: American League Rookie of the Year Huston Street, and Sowers. Of course, Sowers made just one start at Triple-A (in September), but he earned the promotion after pitching well. Like Mastny, Sowers has unexceptional stuff but an outstanding sense of how to use it. Thanks to his great control-1.6 BB/9 and a five-to-one K/BB ratio across three levels in 2005-he`ll start 2006 in Buffalo. He should join the major league rotation no later than 2007.


1. John Danks, lhp
What he did in 2006: 4.15 ERA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA) at AA (69.1-74-22-82); 4.33 at AAA (70.2-67-34-72)
The Good: Young lefthander found success at Triple-A thanks to effective three-pitch mix. Curveball is best offering, but fastball also has plus velocity for a southpaw, sitting at 90-92 mph. Changeup is more than just usable, and projects as a third plus pitch.
The Bad: Danks has an annoying habit of getting hit hard initially after each promotion and needing to adjust each time. His fastball can be a little too true and he has a tendency to work high in the zone, which has led to an elevated home run rate.
The Irrelevant: ERA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA) in first seven Pacific Coast League starts: 5.97. ERA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA) in last seven: 2.75.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An above-average big league starter.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. By trading Brandon McCarthy (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/mccarbr01.php), White Sox (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=CHA) GM Kenny Williams gained a new No. 1 prospect, but left a hole at the bottom of the rotation that Danks is not ready to step into, according to most. Still, the White Sox feel he'll provide much greater long-term value.


Danks 2006 commentary:
The first of "DVD," the Rangers` trio of top pitching prospects: Danks, Edison Volquez, and Thomas Diamond. Danks plays the part of the tall southpaw with the low-90s fastball and devastating curve. You may remember him from such films as "No Free Passes Today," and "Coach Said I Can`t Throw My Curve Because I Need a Changeup." If everything breaks right for the Rangers, Danks will join Diamond and Volquez in the big league rotation sometime in 2007. Or he could go direct to video--for every blockbuster there are ten busts, so odds are that only one of them will have a fruitful major league career. Which one? There`s no way to tell, not yet.


I dunno. Kind of a mixed bag all around. Pretty much follows the TNSSAAPP philosophy that they have (which they've recently clarified). And nothing here looks too outlandish.

There are also recent writings that I've seen which are trying to clarify what a "#1", "#2", "#3", "#4" and "#5" starter are. And basically it downgrades everything. Everyone tends to limit their opinion of a #1 starter, to only the top 10 pitchers in the league, and not the top 30. And so on down the line.

Basically a #4 starter comes out to an average or slightly below average pitcher. I know everyone wants to have a half dozen #1 pitchers in their system, but it simply doesn't work out that way.

jabrch
03-13-2007, 05:01 PM
I don't know exactly, and I can't seem to find it very quickly. Here is his writeup from a couple of months ago. I hesistate posting this, because I know how you feel about people who "waste their money" by buying this "crap". :cool:


LMAO...

Do they have a consolidated ranking of all SP Prospects in baseball somewhere? I'd be curious as to how many LHP they have ranked ahead of those two.

StepsInSC
03-14-2007, 08:09 PM
Yeah, they always have questionable write-ups. Check this one from the same article:

Man, why would we ever trade a righty who is also a lefty...:cool:

Just seems like a lack of editing to me; one more comma could have corrected the mistake.

Hagan
03-19-2007, 01:37 AM
While gio does need to reduce his walks, I agree that he is still very young and has tons of time to improve. I do however agree that his frame is too small and he could end up in the bull pen instead of being a starter. He could next year be very consistant and look like a better starting prospect, but his splits last year were pretty bad after the first two months. This could be because his body tires to easy.

Gio has plenty of time to improve but i still think he has a lot of question marks around him. He also needs to give up less homers. He does need to lower his walks and improve his groundball/flyball ratio which was almost 50/50 last year.

Mohoney
03-19-2007, 05:20 AM
Basically a #4 starter comes out to an average or slightly below average pitcher. I know everyone wants to have a half dozen #1 pitchers in their system, but it simply doesn't work out that way.

So what they're saying is that Gio projects as a #4 on a CHAMPIONSHIP team? He could hypothetically grow to be as high as #2 on a bad team?

Personally, I think that when the kid gets up here for good, he'll be among the top 100 pitchers in the game, AND he's lefty.

We traded away a lot of good lefty pitching to try and repeat last year, but we also struck gold with the Thornton deal. This year, we balanced ourselves out a little, trading for guys like Danks and Sisco, not to mention getting Gio back.

It all pretty much comes down to Danks vs. McCarthy, and which one has a better career. Right now, I'll give the edge to Danks, IF his backdoor changeup routinely hits the corner and gets called a strike against righties.

Right now, McCarthy doesn't have the ability to locate a 3rd pitch and cross up good lefty bats, but he has gotten his feet wet, and has also been quite successful in doing so. He garnered valuable pennant race experience.

ma-gaga
03-22-2007, 12:58 AM
LMAO...

Do they have a consolidated ranking of all SP Prospects in baseball somewhere? I'd be curious as to how many LHP they have ranked ahead of those two.


You have to buy the 2007 book. I don't have it yet, but I paged thru a copy today at Borders. Danks was about the 6th best LHP prospect. There were a couple of Dodger kids, and a Houston kid ahead of him. They were a lot younger, farther from the majors, and have more "upside"... So take it for what it's worth.

:cool:

jabrch
03-22-2007, 11:14 AM
You have to buy the 2007 book. I don't have it yet, but I paged thru a copy today at Borders. Danks was about the 6th best LHP prospect. There were a couple of Dodger kids, and a Houston kid ahead of him. They were a lot younger, farther from the majors, and have more "upside"... So take it for what it's worth.

:cool:

Thanks GaGa...I'll pick it up over the weekend. I'm assuming the Dodgers were Kershaw (age 19 and a LONG way away) and Elbert (21 - and still at least a year away). The Astro would be Patton. He's not a hard thrower (kinda like Gio) but an effective LHP. I saw him at Corpus last year when I was down there on business. I'm guessing he's going to spend all year in AA this year and not make the roster full time until 2009.

oeo
03-23-2007, 02:43 AM
I wonder, like Gio, if Oswalt was also criticized because of his size when he was coming up through the Astros system...

I don't understand this. For instance, Gio is listed as 5'11'' and 185lbs. When I first saw Gio, he reminded me a lot of Johan Santana (his body)...Johan is listed as 6'0'' 205lbs. Johan has not had durability issues. Gio will likely gain most of that twenty as his body matures further, so what am I missing here?

rdivaldi
03-23-2007, 10:05 AM
I don't understand this. For instance, Gio is listed as 5'11'' and 185lbs. When I first saw Gio, he reminded me a lot of Johan Santana (his body)...Johan is listed as 6'0'' 205lbs. Johan has not had durability issues. Gio will likely gain most of that twenty as his body matures further, so what am I missing here?

I'm in agreement, I've grown tired of the "durability issues" garbage. The kid has been injury free (jinx?) since he came out of high school. Gio has absolutely started to fill out when you see him now compared to 2 years ago. How do BP and the other "gurus" explain that Greg Maddux is 6', 180 lbs, Tom Glavine is 6', 200 lbs, Kenny Rogers is 6'1", 200 lbs, Oswalt as mentioned before is 6', 180 lbs, Tim Hudson is 6' 1, 180 lbs, etc. etc.

SoxxoS
03-23-2007, 10:09 AM
I read a scout sum it up like this -

"Imagining driving cross country. Would you rather have a Cadillac or a VW Bug? The tall pitchers are the Cadillac and the smaller pitchers are the VW bug. Not saying you can't make it cross country with a Bug...but you would rather have the Cadillac."

ma-gaga
03-23-2007, 06:11 PM
I'm in agreement, I've grown tired of the "durability issues" garbage. The kid has been injury free (jinx?) since he came out of high school. Gio has absolutely started to fill out when you see him now compared to 2 years ago. How do BP and the other "gurus" explain that Greg Maddux is 6', 180 lbs, Tom Glavine is 6', 200 lbs, Kenny Rogers is 6'1", 200 lbs, Oswalt as mentioned before is 6', 180 lbs, Tim Hudson is 6' 1, 180 lbs, etc. etc.

Dude, you are already comparing him to Hall of Famers, or Cy Young award winners. There's 100 different injuries that could derail him before he even makes the major leagues. He's 21, and pitched what, 342 minor league innings? I think there's a question to see if he can make it to the majors before comparing him to Maddux.


BTW, from my original post, I did ask him if he ever saw Gio, and I asked about the umpiring, and he responded back. Here was his response:

I have not seen Gonzalez in person, but I've talked to many professional scouts who have. I would trust their scouting judgement more than mine anyway.

In the end, with the umpriing thing getting taken care of fairly quickly, I don't think it effected too much. There's not a ton we can gather from it -- talking to players sometimes the strike zone was WAY to big, sometimes it was WAY too small -- so maybe it balanced out.

:cool:

rdivaldi
03-23-2007, 06:27 PM
Dude, you are already comparing him to Hall of Famers, or Cy Young award winners. There's 100 different injuries that could derail him before he even makes the major leagues. He's 21, and pitched what, 342 minor league innings? I think there's a question to see if he can make it to the majors before comparing him to Maddux.

:cool:

No, no, no. Hold on a second, let's not go putting words in my mouth. I am in no way suggesting that Gio is a HOF'er, I like the kid but I'm not that naive. I was just talking about the overhyped "small frame" argument. Just because you're a little guy doesn't mean you can't have a long productive MLB career.

ma-gaga
03-23-2007, 08:21 PM
No, no, no. Hold on a second, let's not go putting words in my mouth. I am in no way suggesting that Gio is a HOF'er, I like the kid but I'm not that naive. I was just talking about the overhyped "small frame" argument. Just because you're a little guy doesn't mean you can't have a long productive MLB career.


Sorry. I get what you are saying. I'm just giving you crap for using guys that have been around for 10-15 years, or are the top tier players. ...


BTW, I found their top 100 prospects list online. It's avaiilable for free HERE (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5892), and here are the lefties:

16. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers, 19
17. Andrew Miller, LHP, Tigers, 22
32. Scott Elbert, LHP, Dodgers, 21
33. Franklin Morales, LHP, Rockies, 21
35. Chuck Lofgren, LHP, Indians, 22
36. Donald Veal, LHP, Cubs, 22
45. Jacob McGee, LHP, Devil Rays, 20
57. Troy Patton, LHP, Astros, 21
58. John Danks, LHP, White Sox, 22


I don't see Gio anywhere. :?: