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View Full Version : Who Am I? One of us is worth $126 million


caulfield12
01-27-2007, 06:16 PM
2004-2006

PITCHER A: 41-34, 3.85 ERA, 662.1 IP, 612 H's, 298 ER, 269 BB's, 485 K's

PITCHER B: 44-31, 3.95 ERA, 686 IP, 744 H's, 301 ER, 139 BB's, 312 K's

You would probably argue Pitcher A is slightly better, but no more than a difference of 10%, and probably less if you factor into it the ballparks they pitch in.

Second, Pitcher B had the worst season in his career, arguably, so his IP/H ratio is a little bloated due to last season.

If there's less than a 10% difference, and they're the same age (B is younger, actually), then Pitcher B is worth $16.2 million according to today's economics. Worst case, he's worth $90 million for 7 years, which would be the contract Pitcher A would have received if the Giants didn't pay him $126 million, as bid #2 was $100 milllion.

Dan Mega
01-27-2007, 06:18 PM
My assumption is that this is a Zito/Buerhle comparison (with pitcher A being Zito?)

caulfield12
01-27-2007, 06:22 PM
My assumption is that this is a Zito/Buerhle comparison (with pitcher A being Zito?)


Yep. And this is exactly the type of comparison Mr. Boras would run up the flag if he were Buehrle's agent.

Better winning percentage, fewer walks, more wins, younger, pitches in a hitter's park, etc.

itsnotrequired
01-27-2007, 06:24 PM
Yep. And this is exactly the type of comparison Mr. Boras would run up the flag if he were Buehrle's agent.

Better winning percentage, fewer walks, more wins, younger, pitches in a hitter's park, etc.

Buehrle's agent is well aware of these numbers.

itsnotrequired
01-27-2007, 06:35 PM
2004-2006

PITCHER A: 41-34, 3.85 ERA, 662.1 IP, 612 H's, 298 ER, 269 BB's, 485 K's

PITCHER B: 44-31, 3.95 ERA, 686 IP, 744 H's, 301 ER, 139 BB's, 312 K's

You would probably argue Pitcher A is slightly better, but no more than a difference of 10%, and probably less if you factor into it the ballparks they pitch in.

Second, Pitcher B had the worst season in his career, arguably, so his IP/H ratio is a little bloated due to last season.

If there's less than a 10% difference, and they're the same age (B is younger, actually), then Pitcher B is worth $16.2 million according to today's economics. Worst case, he's worth $90 million for 7 years, which would be the contract Pitcher A would have received if the Giants didn't pay him $126 million, as bid #2 was $100 milllion.

I also noticed the comparison doesn't start back in 2002. Any particular reason for that?:tongue:

caulfield12
01-27-2007, 07:04 PM
Generally, the best barometer of a pitcher is the last three seasons.

Zito has seen a marked decline, pitching in McAfee. Buehrle has had a couple of down years, but bounced back. After a horrendous years, the numbers are pretty comparable, except for IP/H ratios. There's not a huge difference in the K-BB ratios because Zito walks a ton of hitters too.

I don't think the White Sox will look at Vazquez's 2002 numbers when deciding to give him a contract for 2008 or not.

Would you rather have Edgerrin James or Thomas Jones/Benson? Sure, if you look at E. James in 2002, he was one of the top 3 RB's in the NFL. But that doesn't matter anymore, does it? Reputation and the Cy Young got him up over $100 million, but he didn't deserve it.

itsnotrequired
01-27-2007, 07:18 PM
Reputation and the Cy Young got him up over $100 million, but he didn't deserve it.

There's the correct statement. I was just jerking you around.:D:

Flight #24
01-28-2007, 12:21 AM
Reputation and the Cy Young got him up over $100 million, but he didn't deserve it.

Here's the problem: he may not have deserved it, but it's now out there, so some team will match or beat that for Buehrle. At least that's the way it's been throughout most of recent baseball history. The best you can hope for is that prices don't jump by 30-50% next year, but instead stay flat or rise more like 5-10%.

Unfortunately, IMO the Sox choices are limited to a) paying someone that rate, b) getting lucky that they can build almost an entire rotation in-house or out of guys they "find and fix", or c) going with lesser pitchers.

My hope is still that KW's plan isn't to do any of those, but that he's willing to pay near-market, and is just posturing to get the best deal he can. But the more he talks, the more concerned I am that he's just telling the truth.

goon
01-28-2007, 01:49 AM
Here's the problem: he may not have deserved it, but it's now out there, so some team will match or beat that for Buehrle. At least that's the way it's been throughout most of recent baseball history. The best you can hope for is that prices don't jump by 30-50% next year, but instead stay flat or rise more like 5-10%.


it's not just limited to pitchers either. it's hard to know what the white sox are willing to offer buehrle when contracts for guys like dye, crede, iguchi, to a lesser extent vazquez, and possibly filling the spot in leftfield.

i honestly believe that the sox are going to make a buehrle a "fair" deal. i think the organization has the money to do it and can afford it now because of all the transactions for young(cheap) talent. it just seems like you would want a veteran like buehrle on your team, he adds leadership, experience and quality performance.

caulfield12
01-28-2007, 05:19 AM
it's not just limited to pitchers either. it's hard to know what the white sox are willing to offer buehrle when contracts for guys like dye, crede, iguchi, to a lesser extent vazquez, and possibly filling the spot in leftfield.

i honestly believe that the sox are going to make a buehrle a "fair" deal. i think the organization has the money to do it and can afford it now because of all the transactions for young(cheap) talent. it just seems like you would want a veteran like buehrle on your team, he adds leadership, experience and quality performance.

Not only that, but it's going to be impossible to find a replacement for Uribe without spending money or giving up lots of talent (for a Brandon Wood type of player, Aybar, etc.)

SABRSox
01-28-2007, 02:31 PM
My hope is still that KW's plan isn't to do any of those, but that he's willing to pay near-market, and is just posturing to get the best deal he can. But the more he talks, the more concerned I am that he's just telling the truth.

I just hope that KW and JR calm down from their overreaction to the current market. It's not going to go away, no matter how much they whine about it.

ilsox7
01-28-2007, 02:36 PM
I just hope that KW and JR calm down from their overreaction to the current market. It's not going to go away, no matter how much they whine about it.

That's not necessarily true. The last time the market exploded like this, there was a correction a couple of years later. It's possible, maybe even likely, that two years from now there is a major market correction.

JermaineDye05
01-28-2007, 02:44 PM
Generally, the best barometer of a pitcher is the last three seasons.
http://www.geocities.com/TelevisionCity/Studio/5280/richards.jpg

"it's pronounced thermometer"

Domeshot17
01-28-2007, 11:57 PM
I don't think Zito set the market to be honest. I think next year the market might really turn around. Remember years ago, when Mike Hampton set the market for a solid lefty? Then no one started getting near what he was. This could very well happen. At the same time, if this is the new market, and its not going to come down, then Yah, Kenny needs to get over it and adjust. He is a good business man. He raises the price of tickets, food, merchandise every year for inflation, but when it happens to him, its an outrage.

Kenny just reminds me of my dad when I turned 15. I started to wear Abercrombie, and he flipped out because a Shirt cost him 30+ bucks. He could get a quality t shirt from Wal Mart for 5 bucks. Jeans were only 20. There was no need to spend more money, because they were all the same. Kenny has taken the same approach (so it sounds) to pitching.

ilsox7
01-28-2007, 11:59 PM
Kenny just reminds me of my dad when I turned 15. I started to wear Abercrombie, and he flipped out because a Shirt cost him 30+ bucks. He could get a quality t shirt from Wal Mart for 5 bucks. Jeans were only 20. There was no need to spend more money, because they were all the same. Kenny has taken the same approach (so it sounds) to pitching.

The problem with this analogy is that the shirt you could buy at Wal-Mart yesterday for $5 all of a sudden costs you $25. That's why many people around baseball are pissed. It's not necessarily that paying for quality players went up, it's paying for the **** players that has gone through the roof.

itsnotrequired
01-29-2007, 12:01 AM
The problem with this analogy is that the shirt you could buy at Wal-Mart yesterday for $5 all of a sudden costs you $25. That's why many people around baseball are pissed. It's not necessarily that paying for quality players went up, it's paying for the **** players that has gone through the roof.

I wear shirts until the threads break down and it blows away in the wind. Bring forth the 15 year contract.

Domeshot17
01-29-2007, 12:02 AM
The problem with this analogy is that the shirt you could buy at Wal-Mart yesterday for $5 all of a sudden costs you $25. That's why many people around baseball are pissed. It's not necessarily that paying for quality players went up, it's paying for the **** players that has gone through the roof.

I agree, its kind of a dumb analogy, I guess my point was, The price of crappy pitching (or T shirts) shouldn't make you dump all your quality ones like Buehlre.

ilsox7
01-29-2007, 12:04 AM
I agree, its kind of a dumb analogy, I guess my point was, The price of crappy pitching (or T shirts) shouldn't make you dump all your quality ones like Buehlre.

It really becomes a cost-benefit analysis. If MB is going to command $100MM, are you better off giving him that money, or spending significantly less on an alternative, knowing you'll lose something with quality there, but spending a significant amount elsewhere to improve your team.

Now if KW lets everyone walk and has no viable replacements, then he'll be in trouble. But he knows that and he's not that dumb.

caulfield12
01-29-2007, 03:48 AM
Or paying $5 for a gallon of gas the day after 9/11 or right before Y2K.

KW thinks these are momentary blips, not long-term trends. And if they stay as trends, he's going to act sensibly and responsibly.

The most valuable quantity in baseball is young, affordable and QUALITY major league pitching. Brandon McCarthy got us a haul because he was considered to be more READY than Danks. But KW felt Floyd would give the Sox the same upside as McCarthy (we can debate ad infinitum if this is just "spin" or reality) at the fifth spot, while also helping to rebuild our bullpen (with Masset) and starting depth (with Rasner and Gio Gonzalez).

If one out of three becomes a quality pitcher, then we will get 2-3 pitchers that make legit contributions from all our recent trades. Now the sticking point becomes whether they are aces or rotation filler.

hose
01-29-2007, 07:22 AM
This is what concerns me about Burls : 204 innings - 247 hits given up and only 98 k's along with a 5 era.:o:

Mark was getting his brains beat in after the All-Star break .

soxinem1
01-29-2007, 06:45 PM
2004-2006

PITCHER A: 41-34, 3.85 ERA, 662.1 IP, 612 H's, 298 ER, 269 BB's, 485 K's

PITCHER B: 44-31, 3.95 ERA, 686 IP, 744 H's, 301 ER, 139 BB's, 312 K's

To strengthen MB's case, he actually had 412 K's during this time period, not 312.

I am as pro-White Sox biased as the next guy and I like Buerhle but I am also realistic.

To put it mildly, Zito is better than MB. He throws harder, has better stuff, and is more likely to be around in seven years.

A couple years ago when Zito was getting tagged a bit, he adjusted and salvaged a .500 season. If Buerhle throws like he did from the last Sox-cub game on forward in 2007, or if his fastball and shelf-high change-ups do not improve this season, he will feasted on like a Parana on meat.

And if anyone wants to give Buerhle anything near Zito's contract, even if he has his 2005 year in 2007, they can have him.

caulfield12
01-29-2007, 08:48 PM
Here's the formula I use for evaluating pitchers.

IP-H + K's-BB's divided by ERA

50 + 216/3.85 (Zito)
-58 + 273/3.95 (Buerhle)

266/3.85=69.10
215/3.95=54.43

Zito has a decent-sized advantage, but not huge.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6317368

Zito had the fourth slowest average fastball in the American League last year. He's not the same pitcher...even with MB's diminished velocity, he was still 2-3 MPH on a consistent basis. He still has one of the 3 best curveballs in baseball, but it's not nearly as effective as it was pre-2004. Strikeouts are down, walks are up, ERA's are up, wins are down. Considerably.

The article, although by D. Perry, points out some very good reasons the Giants are suckers.

soxinem1
01-29-2007, 09:24 PM
Here's the formula I use for evaluating pitchers.

IP-H + K's-BB's divided by ERA

50 + 216/3.85 (Zito)
-58 + 273/3.95 (Buerhle)

266/3.85=69.10
215/3.95=54.43

Zito has a decent-sized advantage, but not huge.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6317368

Zito had the fourth slowest average fastball in the American League last year. He's not the same pitcher...even with MB's diminished velocity, he was still 2-3 MPH on a consistent basis. He still has one of the 3 best curveballs in baseball, but it's not nearly as effective as it was pre-2004. Strikeouts are down, walks are up, ERA's are up, wins are down. Considerably.

The article, although by D. Perry, points out some very good reasons the Giants are suckers.

Excellent points, but despite being grossly overpaid, I still say Zito will still be around in seven years. If Buerhle is around in seven years, he'll probably be a reliever.

Either way, neither is worth $126 million.

caulfield12
01-29-2007, 10:05 PM
I think Buehrle can have a career track somewhere between Glavine and Mulder.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Mark lasted longer than Zito. Zito is one of those flaky guys who might just end up quitting baseball and ending up on the pro surfing or snowboarding circuit when he's 34.