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View Full Version : One Experts thoughts on McCarthy in 07


kruzer31
01-16-2007, 09:52 AM
On the CBS site one of the experts who writes for the fantasy blog says give Brandon McCarthy 200 Innings in a Texas Uniform and he will lead the league in HR allowed.


Jeff

itsnotrequired
01-16-2007, 09:57 AM
On the CBS site one of the experts who writes for the fantasy blog says give Brandon McCarthy 200 Innings in a Texas Uniform and he will lead the league in HR allowed.


Jeff

"fantasy blog"? I put all my faith in whatever analysis he used to come up with this conclusion.:tongue:

caulfield12
01-16-2007, 09:57 AM
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/transactions/trades/analysis

Don't know where your stuff came from, but the White Sox were given the advantage in the Danks deal, "even" in the Gload deal and that Phillies got the best of the Garcia deal.

It's interesting, many here were more or equally upset with McCarthy deal, liked the Gload deal a lot and were only upset with what we got back for Garcia, not so much that we dealt him.

Well, we shall just have to wait and see.

AJ Hellraiser
01-16-2007, 01:56 PM
On the CBS site one of the experts who writes for the fantasy blog says give Brandon McCarthy 200 Innings in a Texas Uniform and he will lead the league in HR allowed.

This seems to be the major concern with Brandon... that when his breaking pitchers aren't working well, his fastball is extremely hittable and in HR ballparks such as Arlington and USCF, that means many hits will fly over the fences...

UserNameBlank
01-16-2007, 02:16 PM
I don't think Brandon is going to have a lot of trouble with the home run ball during most of the first half. I think after spending an entore year in the Sox pen he will be more than rested enough to dominate early.

But, around July, when things start to heat up, I think he'll go into a funk after having to pitch in the dry heat out there. This will lead to a crapload of homeruns all through July and most of August when his arm gets tired and his flat fastball becomes even flatter and he can't pinpoint it anymore.

After that I see him finishing up with a decent September.

In all I *predict* his ERA month buy month will look something like this:

Apr 2.00; May 3.90; June 4.00; July 7.50; Aug 6.70; Sept/Oct 3.50

but I think it will all average out to something between 4.60 and 4.80. I still think his K/BB ratio will be there most of the year though.

btrain929
01-19-2007, 08:03 PM
I don't think Brandon is going to have a lot of trouble with the home run ball during most of the first half. I think after spending an entore year in the Sox pen he will be more than rested enough to dominate early.

But, around July, when things start to heat up, I think he'll go into a funk after having to pitch in the dry heat out there. This will lead to a crapload of homeruns all through July and most of August when his arm gets tired and his flat fastball becomes even flatter and he can't pinpoint it anymore.

After that I see him finishing up with a decent September.

In all I *predict* his ERA month buy month will look something like this:

Apr 2.00; May 3.90; June 4.00; July 7.50; Aug 6.70; Sept/Oct 3.50

but I think it will all average out to something between 4.60 and 4.80. I still think his K/BB ratio will be there most of the year though.

his best era for a month might be 3.3 or so. and he'll probably only do that once, maybe twice the whole year. 2.00?? no way in hell. im one of the few sox fans who did not see anything special in mccarthy while he was with us. i dont buy into that "im not a bullpen guy im a starter" crap as the reason for him getting tee'd off on last yr. bottom line, they got a look at him in '05, then 06 when they were a lil familiar with him, they put him in his place. he'll be a #4 or #5 starter his whole career, and not that good of one in my opinion. if he works hard, puts on some weight (what does he weigh, 110lb soaking wet with boots on?), and gets his fastball up to a consistent 95, he'll b a bust. danks and masset will be studs, and rasner might surprise. bye bye

UserNameBlank
01-20-2007, 07:18 PM
his best era for a month might be 3.3 or so. and he'll probably only do that once, maybe twice the whole year. 2.00?? no way in hell. im one of the few sox fans who did not see anything special in mccarthy while he was with us. i dont buy into that "im not a bullpen guy im a starter" crap as the reason for him getting tee'd off on last yr. bottom line, they got a look at him in '05, then 06 when they were a lil familiar with him, they put him in his place. he'll be a #4 or #5 starter his whole career, and not that good of one in my opinion. if he works hard, puts on some weight (what does he weigh, 110lb soaking wet with boots on?), and gets his fastball up to a consistent 95, he'll b a bust. danks and masset will be studs, and rasner might surprise. bye bye

Brandon could put on another 100 lbs and he still won't get his fastball up to 95. Besides, the speed doesn't matter as much as the lack of break. If he had some nice sink on his fastball then he'd be able to get away with a lot more mistakes.

I'll admit I didn't like the comments about being a starter and not a pen guy, but it's hard to disagree with him. He ascended quickly to the Majors and after tipping his pitches was sent to Charlotte. After he worked out his troubles he came back to the Sox and dominated. That resume was not something to mess with, but the Sox did. I don't think you can blame KW for acquiring Vazquez and moving Brandon to the pen since he was doing what he thought was best for the team, but Brandon should have been starting somewhere. When he came in from the pen he often wasn't able to get over his breaking stuff and that made his fastball batting practice. With the appropriate amount of warmup time and the ability to work through early trouble on the mound, Brandon will be much, much better than his numbers in the pen last year would indicate.

BTW, the line of thinking that "they got a look at him in '05, then 06 when they were a lil familiar with him, they put him in his place" is absurd. They got a look at his change and curve in '05, and couldn't hit it, and then when they didn't get a look at those pitches in '06 they killed him.

Also, just wondering, but how can you say Brandon will be a bust after seeing a year and a half out of him but then say Danks and Masset will be studs after not seeing them at all? How does that work?