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View Full Version : BP Ranks the Top 10 White Sox Prospects


SouthSide_HitMen
01-12-2007, 03:40 PM
Linky (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5804) You can see comments on the top 3. Perhaps someone with a subscription can fill us in if anything else is worth noting among #4-#10 (that is if you dare admit you subscribe to BP on WSI :o: ).

Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. John Danks (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/DANKS19850415A.php), lhp
2. Ryan Sweeney (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/SWEENEY19850220A.php), cf/rf
3. Josh Fields (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/FIELDS19821214A.php), 3b
Good Prospects
4. Gio Gonzalez (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/GONZALEZ19850919A.php), lhp
5. Charlie Haeger (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/HAEGER19830919A.php), rhp
Average Prospects
6. Aaron Cunningham, lf
7. Lance Broadway (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/BROADWAY19830820A.php), rhp
8. Kyle McCulloch, rhp
9. Chris Carter, 1b
10. Nick Massett, rhp

I don't know what their criteria is for "excellent" prospects vs. "very good". Then again I don't understand their criteria for a lot of things.

SABRSox
01-12-2007, 03:43 PM
I don't subscribe, but I found this nugget from another website talking about the article:

"The White Sox system is a bad one, as the drop off in talent after the first five prospects is sizeable. While Kenny Williams' trading ways have played a factor, some of the most boring drafts in recent memory play a larger one."

I think it's true that Kenny has played the past few drafts on the safe side, but considering where we've been picking, it's hard to come up with those Delmon Young's and Alex Gordon's.

Nobody here would argue that our system is a little on the thin side.

MUsoxfan
01-12-2007, 03:51 PM
So is Gavin Floyd not considered a prospect or so bad that he's not in the Top 10?

MUsoxfan
01-12-2007, 03:53 PM
Nobody here would argue that our system is a little on the thin side.

I don't think many top teams in MLB have deep farm systems. Teams like the Brewers, Rays, Royals, Pirates etc have uber prospects because of their perennial fire-sales.

FedEx227
01-12-2007, 03:58 PM
So is Gavin Floyd not considered a prospect or so bad that he's not in the Top 10?

I'm guessing based on time he's been on a major league roster that he doesn't count as a prospect anymore ditto for Sisco.

champagne030
01-12-2007, 04:00 PM
Brian Anderson is on the market to make room for Sweeney? Where did they get that information?

SABRSox
01-12-2007, 04:01 PM
Brian Anderson is on the market to make room for Sweeney? Where did they get that information?

Where they get a lot of their information... out of their ass.

rdivaldi
01-12-2007, 04:06 PM
Where they get a lot of their information... out of their ass.

BP has about zero credibility rating prospects. I almost fell out of my chair reading that Gio Gonzalez is only a "Good" prospect. Why people pay money to read that ridiculous website is beyond me.

MrX
01-12-2007, 04:09 PM
Brian Anderson is on the market to make room for Sweeney? Where did they get that information?
Excel

SABRSox
01-12-2007, 05:39 PM
BP has about zero credibility rating prospects. I almost fell out of my chair reading that Gio Gonzalez is only a "Good" prospect. Why people pay money to read that ridiculous website is beyond me.

I'd agree that our system is a little thin, but I think they do undervalue our prospects. Probably because they don't actually watch them play.

I also don't understand people paying for their "service."

Domeshot17
01-12-2007, 08:15 PM
Well to be fair, Gio did not have a good 2006 campaign. I guess at some point you have to factor results in as much as potential.

skobabe8
01-12-2007, 08:37 PM
Bp stinks.

rdivaldi
01-13-2007, 10:25 AM
Well to be fair, Gio did not have a good 2006 campaign. I guess at some point you have to factor results in as much as potential.

I don't think BP understands the word "potential" unless they of course have some asinine stat that tells them what it is. A 20 year old pitching an entire year in AA and holding his own is very impressive.

chaerulez
01-13-2007, 10:26 AM
If Broadway was drafted by Beane they would be touting him as the next great thing. As he was a prototypical moneyball pitcher, a college pitcher that and to my knowledge he's not a flame thrower like Kerry Wood/AJ Burnett/Josh Beckett which screams injury risk. Yet somehow on the White Sox he's an average prospect. The way Broadway is progressing right now he won't be repeating any levels and should be spending the year starting in AAA, and being on a major league roster by 2008. Broadway will more than likely be on a major league roster quicker than Kris Honel who was drafted four years before him.

rdivaldi
01-13-2007, 10:51 AM
Broadway will more than likely be on a major league roster quicker than Kris Honel who was drafted four years before him.

In Kris' defense, he has suffered from elbow troubles, thus stifling his growth. He was shooting through the system before his setback, pitching in AA at age 20.

PaulDrake
01-13-2007, 11:12 AM
BP has about zero credibility rating prospects. I almost fell out of my chair reading that Gio Gonzalez is only a "Good" prospect. Why people pay money to read that ridiculous website is beyond me. I was thinking the same thing about Gio.

psyclonis
01-13-2007, 01:29 PM
If youre wondering where our "Excellent Prospect" is... KW already traded him away for our worst SP.

rdivaldi
01-13-2007, 01:32 PM
If youre wondering where our "Excellent Prospect" is... KW already traded him away for our worst SP.

McCarthy has pitched too many innings to be considered a prospect. Get over it...

JorgeFabregas
01-13-2007, 01:41 PM
I think he's talking about Chris Young, not McCarthy.

jabrch
01-13-2007, 02:47 PM
Given that Danks is one of the top 3 LH SP in the minors (most also say that about Gio, with Sowers being the other), I'm surprised he's not in their "Excellent" category. But I'm ok with having BP say we have 5 SPs in the minors who meet their requirements. I think that's better than they treat most other farm systems' pitching prospects, right?

itsnotrequired
01-13-2007, 03:58 PM
I don't know what their criteria is for "excellent" prospects vs. "very good". Then again I don't understand their criteria for a lot of things.

My take is that since it is the White Sox, BP would refuse to admit they have anything excellent.

rdivaldi
01-13-2007, 05:35 PM
I think he's talking about Chris Young, not McCarthy.

I see. Well, if Ryan Sweeney is not "Excellent", neither is Chris Young.

caulfield12
01-13-2007, 11:44 PM
But wasn't Chris Young in the Top 10-15 prospects in baseball after the 2005 season?

I don't think Sweeney has ever been higher than the mid 30's...

Young has more speed and more power, everything but a good throwing arm.

ballclub3
01-14-2007, 12:55 AM
My take is that since it is the White Sox, BP would refuse to admit they have anything excellent.

Why would BP have it in for the White Sox?

FarWestChicago
01-14-2007, 01:04 AM
Why would BP have it in for the White Sox?Because the Sox won the World Series while the "geniuses" at BP predicted they would suck and still insisted they sucked even after they won the Series. The Sox were a piece of empirical data they just couldn't explain away. It was very inconvenient. :redneck

rdivaldi
01-14-2007, 07:43 PM
But wasn't Chris Young in the Top 10-15 prospects in baseball after the 2005 season?

I don't think Sweeney has ever been higher than the mid 30's...

Young has more speed and more power, everything but a good throwing arm.

From BAs rankings Chris was #23 and Ryan was #92 at the beginning of 2006. I don't doubt that Chris has more talent than Ryan in terms of speed and power, but I don't think you can overlook Ryan's cannon arm, plate discipline and gorgeous line drive stroke. Chris has a higher upside, but I would still lay money down that Ryan is more likely to reach his potential.

itsnotrequired
01-14-2007, 07:53 PM
Because the Sox won the World Series while the "geniuses" at BP predicted they would suck and still insisted they sucked even after they won the Series. The Sox were a piece of empirical data they just couldn't explain away. It was very inconvenient. :redneck

<2005 BP>The Sox have an 88% chance of winning the AL Central.</2005 BP>

jabrch
01-14-2007, 10:45 PM
<2005 BP>The Sox have an 88% chance of winning the AL Central.</2005 BP>


That was so completely assinine I can't describe it.

itsnotrequired
01-14-2007, 10:53 PM
That was so completely assinine I can't describe it.

It was moot anyway as the Sox ran the B-lineup in Cleveland and still swept their asses. The best part was all the Boston fans whining about Ozzie's lineups as the Indians and Red Sox were both in the running for the wild card.

FedEx227
01-14-2007, 11:01 PM
It was moot anyway as the Sox ran the B-lineup in Cleveland and still swept their asses. The best part was all the Boston fans whining about Ozzie's lineups as the Indians and Red Sox were both in the running for the wild card.

Was that not the sweetest series ever. Indians had everything to lose, we had nothing to lose, and we destroy them with Joe Borchard as our cleanup hitter. So awesome.

itsnotrequired
01-15-2007, 12:44 AM
Was that not the sweetest series ever. Indians had everything to lose, we had nothing to lose, and we destroy them with Joe Borchard as our cleanup hitter. So awesome.

The bullpen got a little gassed in the first game of that series which is the only thing that bothered me about starting the B-team. Eh, the Sox swept them, swept the Red Sox, almost swept the Angels and then swept the Astros.

Works for me...

:bandance:

ballclub3
01-18-2007, 02:17 AM
Because the Sox won the World Series while the "geniuses" at BP predicted they would suck and still insisted they sucked even after they won the Series. The Sox were a piece of empirical data they just couldn't explain away. It was very inconvenient. :redneck

Even if they were frustrated by the White Sox winning the WS, I would hope that they would be fair in grading the Sox farm system. I haven't seen the Sox farm system described in the most positive terms in other quarters either, so I think BP has it pretty accurate in their ratings of the top White Sox prospects. Maybe you could argue that Danks should be considered "excellent" instead of "very good" but that is nitpicking. The Sox farm system is I think, by most accounts, below average and that is because of a lack of high-ceiling prospects.

I am hard pressed to confidently say that there are any future all-stars on that top ten list. As far as pitchers, you have guys highly rated who have average stuff like Broadway and McCulloch who project as back-of-the-rotation starters. You have a knuckleballer in Haeger. Who knows what to expect from him. Danks and Gonzalez probably have above average stuff but neither of them has dominant stuff.

The top position prospect on that list is Sweeney who hasn't proven that he can hit for power. Where is he going to play? His range may not be good enough for CF and his power probably won't meet corner OF standards.
Fields and Carter probably have higher ceilings than Sweeney but are perhaps less likely to reach their potential. All told, it's not a very impressive list of prospects.

spiffie
01-18-2007, 09:36 AM
Even if they were frustrated by the White Sox winning the WS, I would hope that they would be fair in grading the Sox farm system. I haven't seen the Sox farm system described in the most positive terms in other quarters either, so I think BP has it pretty accurate in their ratings of the top White Sox prospects. Maybe you could argue that Danks should be considered "excellent" instead of "very good" but that is nitpicking. The Sox farm system is I think, by most accounts, below average and that is because of a lack of high-ceiling prospects.

I am hard pressed to confidently say that there are any future all-stars on that top ten list. As far as pitchers, you have guys highly rated who have average stuff like Broadway and McCulloch who project as back-of-the-rotation starters. You have a knuckleballer in Haeger. Who knows what to expect from him. Danks and Gonzalez probably have above average stuff but neither of them has dominant stuff.

The top position prospect on that list is Sweeney who hasn't proven that he can hit for power. Where is he going to play? His range may not be good enough for CF and his power probably won't meet corner OF standards.
Fields and Carter probably have higher ceilings than Sweeney but are perhaps less likely to reach their potential. All told, it's not a very impressive list of prospects.
And your background in scouting is? You've watched how many of these guys play regularly?

All I know is that the guys on this board who watch lots of minor league baseball seem to have a much happier picture of things. But then that would entail these "experts" watching some games instead of going off of what everyone else says.

I have no worries about our farm system. We have lots of good young OF, a stud 3B prospect, and a lot of good young arms.

caulfield12
01-18-2007, 09:59 AM
At the end of the season, I would guess our system would have been rated in the mid 20's, maybe even closer to the bottom.

I would say these trades have brought us back up the middle of the pack, somewhere around 15-18 in MLB if I had to guess.

Danks and Gio all have very good upsides, and Floyd does too...so we have three starters that have the ability to be 1-3 starters, focus on the word ability (not results). So does Masset, potentially.

Then you have Broadway, McCullogh, Haeger...and Sisco, Rasner and the kid they got for Stewart, so we now have a lot of depth in that area.

What we're missing is the talent below AA. You have Carter, Cunningham...a couple of others. But it's better to have big leaugue ready players (Sweeney, Fields, Owens) than rookie leaguers.

rdivaldi
01-18-2007, 10:39 AM
The top position prospect on that list is Sweeney who hasn't proven that he can hit for power. Where is he going to play? His range may not be good enough for CF and his power probably won't meet corner OF standards. Fields and Carter probably have higher ceilings than Sweeney but are perhaps less likely to reach their potential. All told, it's not a very impressive list of prospects.

You've gotta be kidding me. Sweeney is still just a kid. To say Fields and Carter have "higher ceilings" is absolutely ludicrous.

Where's that dark cloud?

FarWestChicago
01-18-2007, 08:00 PM
Even if they were frustrated by the White Sox winning the WS, I would hope that they would be fair in grading the Sox farm system.There is no empirical data that should give anybody any hope about BP being fair about grading the Sox. Anybody but a BP fanboy can see that. So, I wouldn't hope for too much. :smile:

ballclub3
01-19-2007, 02:13 AM
And your background in scouting is? You've watched how many of these guys play regularly?

All I know is that the guys on this board who watch lots of minor league baseball seem to have a much happier picture of things. But then that would entail these "experts" watching some games instead of going off of what everyone else says.

I have no worries about our farm system. We have lots of good young OF, a stud 3B prospect, and a lot of good young arms.

I don't watch these guys play regularly. I form my opinions based on the information that is available to me. If you know of any publications that give the White Sox farm system a high rating, then let me know what they are. I'll be glad to take a look at them.

ballclub3
01-19-2007, 03:02 AM
You've gotta be kidding me. Sweeney is still just a kid. To say Fields and Carter have "higher ceilings" is absolutely ludicrous.

Where's that dark cloud?

I don't know if Sweeney's future is in CF or corner OF. He hasn't shown yet that he can hit for power. I know he is still young but I doubt that he will ever be a significant power threat. I think he'll hit for average at the major league level but I think he'll only hit something like 12-15 HRs a year. For a CF that would be about average. For a corner OF, you're looking for more home run production than that. As far as defense, I don't know if he has the range to be an everyday CF. If he plays the corner OF, he'll probably be an above average defender with a good arm. Overall, I think he'll be an average to somewhat above average major leaguer.

IMO, Fields and Carter have the POTENTIAL to be 30-plus HR per year guys. Sweeney may hit 20 points higher in BA than these guys but he may only hit 15 HRs a year. Fields and Carter have the potential to put up consistently higher OPS numbers than Sweeney. Their defense may not project to be as good as Sweeney's at their respective positions, but their offense has a chance to be significantly better.

So going off of potential, I'll take a corner IF who can hit .280 with 30-plus HRs over a corner OF who can hit .300 with 15 HRs even if he is a little better defensively at his position.

You may have different projections as to what these three players are capable of offensively. Those numbers are what I have in mind for the three players if they each reach their potential.

But I do believe that Sweeney is the best bet of the three to reach his potential. I just believe that the other two have greater upside.

spiffie
01-19-2007, 08:40 AM
I don't watch these guys play regularly. I form my opinions based on the information that is available to me. If you know of any publications that give the White Sox farm system a high rating, then let me know what they are. I'll be glad to take a look at them.
If you know any publications that had the Sox winning it all in 2005, or the Tigers going to the World Series in 2006, let me know what they are. I'll be glad to take a look at them.

Quit listening to the Mediots. You'll have a happier outlook on life, and you won't lose anything in terms of baseball knowledge. All the media does is keep regurgitating one opinion in 1,000 different ways. They don't know ****, and they're too busy kissing the asses of the Yankees, Red Sox, and the scum-laden roid loving FOBB's to really do any analysis. I've quit ever listening to anything the media says. I trust our minor league experts and the White Sox organization.

ChiSoxFan7
01-19-2007, 07:31 PM
Where they get a lot of their information... out of their ass.
to you: :worship:



:rolling: