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Flight #24
12-14-2006, 10:53 AM
Interesting that this somehow never made it to the Trib.......their "sports reporters" must have been busy preparing the Jason Marquis/Ted Lilly retrospective for their upcoming epic Cy Young battle. (no teal needed)

From Rozner (http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/rozner.asp?id=260166):



“Somehow, there’s a common thought out there that Jerry Reinsdorf issued a mandate to lower the payroll, and that is as far from the truth as you can possibly get,’’ Williams said Wednesday.
http://www.dailyherald.com/images/spacer.gif var tcdacmd="sa=a;sz=3;ad"; http://anat.tacoda.net/view/62277/41988/59197/98354/1443/B4A68DE2/ “As a matter of fact, if I saw something that made sense, I could go out right now and add a player that would increase the payroll significantly.
“But what I’ve seen out there so far doesn’t make sense to me. “We have either equal or better in house right now, and I’m not going to do something stupid that will cripple this franchise like I fear some other teams have done to themselves.

Now, argue with the baseball decisions and talent evaluation all you want, but can we please dispense with any and all "el cheapo JR" talk? He's letting his GM make baseball decisions.

oeo
12-14-2006, 10:55 AM
Interesting that this somehow never made it to the Trib.......their "sports reporters" must have been busy preparing the Jason Marquis/Ted Lilly retrospective for their upcoming epic Cy Young battle. (no teal needed)

“We have either equal or better in house right now, and I’m not going to do something stupid that will cripple this franchise like I fear some other teams have done to themselves."

Other teams as in our North Side neighbors...take note, Trib.

lakeviewsoxfan
12-14-2006, 10:57 AM
Good article. It states what we all know The Sox will not overpay for mediocre players and I definetely appluad them for that.

SoxxoS
12-14-2006, 11:36 AM
Lip?

soxtalker
12-14-2006, 11:55 AM
There have been some comments in the media and on WSI implying that the Sox might be going cheap, though I think that they've really been pretty muted. There are just a lot of fans and some media who are uncomfortable with the move toward prospects. Kenny has been pretty consistent in his statements.

Scottiehaswheels
12-14-2006, 12:01 PM
I don't blame us for "being cheap" this year.. The FA market this year was garbage... Take a look at the class of FA available next year and you'll be glad we didn't waste our time with the FA class this year... We still have a good enough team as it is right now to make the playoffs and nothing that was available would really have made us a whole hell of a lot better as it is anyways...

Ol' No. 2
12-14-2006, 12:02 PM
Interesting that this somehow never made it to the Trib.......their "sports reporters" must have been busy preparing the Jason Marquis/Ted Lilly retrospective for their upcoming epic Cy Young battle. (no teal needed)

From Rozner (http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/rozner.asp?id=260166):



Now, argue with the baseball decisions and talent evaluation all you want, but can we please dispense with any and all "el cheapo JR" talk? He's letting his GM make baseball decisions.The contrast between the Trib reporting and the Sun-Times just keeps getting wider. Lately the Trib has just been ignoring the Sox completely (but with daily articles on how the Cubs are on their way).

Domeshot17
12-14-2006, 12:03 PM
I don't think the fear comes from Kenny as much as JR. That being said, I trust Kenny, even if I don't entirely like our plan of attack.

voodoochile
12-14-2006, 12:13 PM
The contrast between the Trib reporting and the Sun-Times just keeps getting wider. Lately the Trib has just been ignoring the Sox completely (but with daily articles on how the Cubs are on their way).

Well the Sox aren't churning the team the way the flubbies are. It would explain one reason the flubbies are making so many moves. It allows them to increase the free advertising they get and impress the sheep with their willingness to spend and keep the turnstyles clicking...

itsnotrequired
12-14-2006, 02:03 PM
Well the Sox aren't churning the team the way the flubbies are. It would explain one reason the flubbies are making so many moves. It allows them to increase the free advertising they get and impress the sheep with their willingness to spend and keep the turnstyles clicking...

...or to inflate the franchise worth for an impending sale.

maurice
12-14-2006, 02:19 PM
Well the Sox aren't churning the team the way the flubbies are.

That's true but the problem isn't that every Cub story lacks merit, it's that the Cubune milks the stories for all their worth (and them some) while downplaying, ignoring, or unfairly bashing the Sox.

There are plenty of glaring examples in the past couple of months alone. Today's sports section treats us to the following gems:
Dawson's Hall Credentials Superior to McGwire's
Buried in the article: the notation that McGwire's RBI total "is more than a couple of hundred shy than that of Harold Baines"
Not mentioned until the very end of the article: Dawson's RBI total ALSO is lower than Baines' RBI total
Hendry Not Going To Make Any More Moves
Soriano = Santa Claus

Meanwhile, the Sox get:
Jose Conteras is an illegal, who was "smuggled into the United States"
Breaking up wasn't hard to do after all, My 2006: Mark Gonzales
:rolleyes:

Flight #24
12-14-2006, 02:26 PM
.

There are plenty of glaring examples in the past couple of months alone. Today's sports section treats us to the following gems:
Dawson's Hall Credentials Superior to McGwire's
Buried in the article: the notation that McGwire's RBI total "is more than a couple of hundred shy than that of Harold Baines"
Not mentioned until the very end of the article: Dawson's RBI total ALSO is lower than Baines' RBI total


Dawson: 21 seasons, .279BA, .323 OBP, .482SLG, 314SB, 109CS, 438HR, 1373 R, 1591 RBI

Baines: 22 seasons, .289BA, .356OBP, .465SLG, 34SB, 34CS, 384HR, 1299R, 1628RBI

Basically, Dawson had better speed and hit more HR, but Baines was superior at hitting for avg & far superior at getting on base. ALso, FWIW there's a stat about run creation per 27 outs, and Harold is worth .5 runs/27 more than Dawson, which to me seems significant. But the headline's all about "Hawk" and Harold gets second billing.........:angry:

Hitmen77
12-14-2006, 02:27 PM
“Somehow, there’s a common thought out there that Jerry Reinsdorf issued a mandate to lower the payroll, and that is as far from the truth as you can possibly get,’’ Williams said Wednesday.
http://www.dailyherald.com/images/spacer.gif http://anat.tacoda.net/view/62277/41988/59197/98354/1443/B4A68DE2/ “As a matter of fact, if I saw something that made sense, I could go out right now and add a player that would increase the payroll significantly.
“But what I’ve seen out there so far doesn’t make sense to me. “We have either equal or better in house right now, and I’m not going to do something stupid that will cripple this franchise like I fear some other teams have done to themselves.

This "Williams" guy doesn't know what he's talking about. Phil Rogers and Rick Morrissey say the Sox are slashing payroll and dismantling their starting rotation. (<---note lack of teal) Who are you going to believe?

AuroraSoxFan
12-14-2006, 02:40 PM
I never really thought they were having a firesale or anything. I actually like their lineup and starting rotation. I thought they could have gotten more for Freddy. but I am sure they tried to. I doubt they just dealt him on the 1st offer they got. There were a few fairly decent relievers just signed by other teams. I wish there would have been more of a push made for some of them but at the same time I am sure they are not done shopping.

fusillirob1983
12-14-2006, 03:11 PM
I'll take it a step farther and say that very few, except those that read the Tribune, believed that the Sox were having a firesale.

Also, I don't remember many articles questioning if the Cubs can climb out of the cellar. It is the NL Central, so I'm sure they will, it definitely comes off that the Sox's World Series hopes in the coming years ended in September and it's only the beginning for the Cubs.

What a joke.

nevr say dye sox
12-14-2006, 05:36 PM
if the sox aren't going to overpay for mediocre talent, they certainly aren't going to overpay for good talent. Lets face it every year a new bar gets set on what franchises pay for FA. I can tell you this, next year FA salaries are not going to go down, they'll go up higer than this year. Sure the talent may be better, but look Toronto just offered Vernon Wells over $120 million. And were worried about signing Joe Crede. Lets be realistic, were going to have to hope our young talent produces to have a chance to win it again. After next year Burhle, Garland, Contreas will all be gone. Yep, will have all the salaries off the books...but guess what it's going to cost more to replace them. Will be rebuilding again!

caulfield12
12-14-2006, 06:04 PM
Ummm...we have Garland through 2008, Contreras through 2009 and Vazquez through 2008 (if we want him to keep him), not to mention Floyd, Gio, Haeger, Broadway and McCullough.

How many more pitchers would you like to acquire? 5? 10?

The Immigrant
12-14-2006, 06:12 PM
After next year Burhle, Garland, Contreas will all be gone. Yep, will have all the salaries off the books...but guess what it's going to cost more to replace them. Will be rebuilding again!

Get a clue.

MRM
12-14-2006, 08:32 PM
Of course he's not cutting payroll. Every bit of the money saved in the Freddie deal is already spent just paying arbitration eligible players, it's not an *extra* 10 million like everyone seems to think. The payroll, as it currently stands, is almost identical to last year even taking Garcia off the books.

MRM
12-14-2006, 08:38 PM
Ummm...we have Garland through 2008, Contreras through 2009 and Vazquez through 2008 (if we want him to keep him), not to mention Floyd, Gio, Haeger, Broadway and McCullough.

How many more pitchers would you like to acquire? 5? 10?

Both. You mentioned 5 guys, none of whom are a sure thing. Are you certain that even two of them will be legit big league starters? I'm sure not. It is impossible to have too many pitching prospects.

caulfield12
12-14-2006, 11:13 PM
Of course he's not cutting payroll. Every bit of the money saved in the Freddie deal is already spent just paying arbitration eligible players, it's not an *extra* 10 million like everyone seems to think. The payroll, as it currently stands, is almost identical to last year even taking Garcia off the books.

it has to be a little lower, because we're still getting money for Vazquez and Thome, in fact Vazquez more this year than last

plus we got rid of Thomas' $3.5 million buyout, Everett's buyout, Hermanson and Politte and Riske


I would guess we have $7-13 million to play with, as KW mentioned

TheOldRoman
12-15-2006, 12:10 AM
This is what I said in a previous thread. The Sox are not cutting payroll. The people jumping off buildings because the Sox are "rebuilding and getting rid of their good players" are ridiculous. The payroll will stay pretty much the same in 07. Unless the Sox completely bomb in 07 and lose half their season ticket base, they payroll will be similar, most likely higher in 08. If the Sox are getting rid of all these players, how the hell are they going to have a payroll of over $100 million? Not everyone will get traded. Not only that, but KW will make moves in free agency, he just wont go after the huge names and get into bidding wars.

slavko
12-15-2006, 12:11 AM
Does it take Columbo to figure out they're not cutting payroll off a 3M season? Unless you're the Fibune.

jabrch
12-15-2006, 08:16 AM
After next year Burhle, Garland, Contreas will all be gone. Yep, will have all the salaries off the books...but guess what it's going to cost more to replace them. Will be rebuilding again!

And you know this how exactly? I'd be willing to bet the farm that those three guys are not all off the books. If they are, the only reason would be that the arms we have in the minors are all major league ready, in which case we'd spend that money elsewhere. I'm not sure why people always pannick. It's a bit early for that. Kenny has proven over time to be one step ahead of most major league GMs. I trust him.

nevr say dye sox
12-15-2006, 10:51 AM
KW has made a lot good things happen... However a lot of luck had to go into 05' to make the world series possible. Pods had a great year, Jenks we pulled from a pile of heap, Cotts was lights out, Poliette played way over his head, Iguchi played better than we thought. We took a chance on AJ and it turned out great. Dye played better than expected...my point is if we don't plan on getting into bidding wars, like most of you suggest, than we have be content with a third place finish in the division when the players who over acheived come back down to reality! KW is not going to catch lighting in a bottle every year!

Flight #24
12-15-2006, 11:05 AM
if the sox aren't going to overpay for mediocre talent, they certainly aren't going to overpay for good talent.

That's ludicrous. It's entirely possible and appropriate for KW to say "I won't pay Gil Meche $11M/yr because I think I can get the same production out of McCarthy (or better). However, I will pay Jon Garland/Mark Buehrle $17M/yr because I can't get that production out of anyone that I have."

You're ignoring the most important part of KW's comments: That it's not the salaries he's concerned about, it's what you're getting for that $$$ and that he's got far superior options at a lower cost.

voodoochile
12-15-2006, 11:08 AM
KW has made a lot good things happen... However a lot of luck had to go into 05' to make the world series possible. Pods had a great year, Jenks we pulled from a pile of heap, Cotts was lights out, Poliette played way over his head, Iguchi played better than we thought. We took a chance on AJ and it turned out great. Dye played better than expected...my point is if we don't plan on getting into bidding wars, like most of you suggest, than we have be content with a third place finish in the division when the players who over acheived come back down to reality! KW is not going to catch lighting in a bottle every year!

:darkcloud:

Sweet merciful crap, man... we won 90 games last year when absolutely NOTHING went our way, when several of our pitchers had career worst years, nothing in the bullpen worked at all, save Jenks and Ozzie decided to play Mack in CF for over half the season. Add in Uribe having a horrible year and Pods not producing at the top of the lineup and you it's hardly the doom and gloom scenario you are foisting off as facts.

Given everything that went wrong last year I think it is remarkable that the Sox came within 7 or 8 lucky bounces of making the playoffs for the second straight year.

Can we at least wait to see how some of it plays out before we automatically assume the Sox will never make the playoffs again?:rolleyes:

nevr say dye sox
12-15-2006, 11:11 AM
Your missing my point. The Blue Jay's are about set to sign Vernon Wells for $126 million. How much did they give Burnett last year. I know you will say, " Yeah look what he did they over paid." They went out and paid for talent they thought would make them better. The Sox find talent that is reasonable! It might turn out to be great and it looks that much better, but KW doesn't have to put his neck on the line if a big signing doesn't work out. "B" level talent has more up side than down, if they don't work out you didn't pay much. If they have a career year, you look like the smartest man alive. All of our big salary guys, Thome, Vazquez, some other team is paying most of the salary. No way would the Sox pick up a big contract without another team wanting to get rid of someone.

voodoochile
12-15-2006, 11:17 AM
Your missing my point. The Blue Jay's are about set to sign Vernon Wells for $126 million. How much did they give Burnett last year. I know you will say, " Yeah look what he did they over paid." They went out and paid for talent they thought would make them better. The Sox find talent that is reasonable! It might turn out to be great and it looks that much better, but KW doesn't have to put his neck on the line if a big signing doesn't work out. "B" level talent has more up side than down, if they don't work out you didn't pay much. If they have a career year, you look like the smartest man alive. All of our big salary guys, Thome, Vazquez, some other team is paying most of the salary. No way would the Sox pick up a big contract without another team wanting to get rid of someone.

Okay, so you're down on KW for being a shrewd businessman?

Also, the Sox are still paying over half of the contract of both of those players.

Finally, the tried and proven means of getting to and winning in the playoffs is developing young talent or trading for talented young players, building them into a team, adding some FA players to the mix to put the team over the top and making a run in the playoffs. Even the great Yankee teams of the late 90's had that mix. The lone exception to this rule is the BoSox from 2004 who were almost ALL FA signings.

The Sox won 90 games last year with everything going wrong for them. Given no changes at all to the team, they should be in the playoff hunt again this year, unless you are predicting an even bigger drop off by the players who had down years last season. Given the track record of most of them, that seems a bit silly. If most of them stand pat and a few improve, the Sox should be in the Pennant hunt. Predicting anything else at this stage of the game is simply dark clouding it. It isn't even ST yet, heck, that's still 2 months away. That's plenty of time to make a deal or sign a FA or two. If not, feel free to rant away at that time, but we are only 1/2 way through the off season, let's not blow up the season just yet...

nevr say dye sox
12-15-2006, 11:19 AM
Good Point Voodoochile...Pods bad year still our Left fielder. Mack having to play CF cause Anderson couldn't do it and Anderson is still of CF. Same pitching staff as last year with the addition of 4 minor leaguers. Seems like the definition of insanity. Continuing to do the same thing expecting a different out come!

voodoochile
12-15-2006, 11:25 AM
Good Point Voodoochile...Pods bad year still our Left fielder. Mack having to play CF cause Anderson couldn't do it and Anderson is still of CF. Same pitching staff as last year with the addition of 4 minor leaguers. Seems like the definition of insanity. Continuing to do the same thing expecting a different out come!

Anderson was a freaking rookie. You saying that's the best he can do?

Pods has had better years. In fact he has had several better years. He had one the year before.

The SP rotation will get a full off season of rest. No playoffs this year (remember Buehrle after the WS saying his arm felt as tired as it ever had?), no stupid world cup of baseball or whatever stealing half our rotation to pitch in meaningless games and sapping their strength entering the season. They get the full 6 months off. I am expecting much better things from them this year as they won't enter the season with dead arms.

Bullpen is still up for grabs, but Thorton, MacDougal and Jenks mean the Sox have at least a solid back of the bullpen, IMO. Need to find or devlop some middle relievers, but there are a bunch of live arms to work with and plenty of time to fill the slots if not.

It's not even Xmas yet, let's not assume we are getting a lump of coal...

miker
12-15-2006, 11:36 AM
Anderson was a freaking rookie. You saying that's the best he can do?

Pods has had better years. In fact he has had several better years. He had one the year before.

The SP rotation will get a full off season of rest. No playoffs this year (remember Buehrle after the WS saying his arm felt as tired as it ever had?), no stupid world cup of baseball or whatever stealing half our rotation to pitch in meaningless games and sapping their strength entering the season. They get the full 6 months off. I am expecting much better things from them this year as they won't enter the season with dead arms.

Bullpen is still up for grabs, but Thorton, MacDougal and Jenks mean the Sox have at least a solid back of the bullpen, IMO. Need to find or devlop some middle relievers, but there are a bunch of live arms to work with and plenty of time to fill the slots if not.

It's not even Xmas yet, let's not assume we are getting a lump of coal...
Hmmm, that kind of semi-optimistic, want-and-see approach isn't going to go over will with some people on these boards!

I'm not going to get worked up until something glaring shows up early in the year, and even if there is, I'm not convinced there is any player outside the organization that really could have prevented it.

PaulDrake
12-15-2006, 11:55 AM
Good Point Voodoochile...Pods bad year still our Left fielder. Mack having to play CF cause Anderson couldn't do it and Anderson is still of CF. Same pitching staff as last year with the addition of 4 minor leaguers. Seems like the definition of insanity. Continuing to do the same thing expecting a different out come! Wow. I'll never be accused of being overly optimistic about anything, but how do you argue with that? Just let me say that many times a player follows a bad year with a good one. Podsednik has already done that twice in his career. Also, I'm not willing to throw Anderson under the bus just yet, even if you and Ozzie are.

skobabe8
12-15-2006, 12:28 PM
How can you not love KW's philosophy? He seems to have the ideal balance of winning now, but also sustained success. Thats exactly the way I want it.

TheVulture
12-15-2006, 12:57 PM
Dawson: 21 seasons, .279BA, .323 OBP, .482SLG, 314SB, 109CS, 438HR, 1373 R, 1591 RBI

Baines: 22 seasons, .289BA, .356OBP, .465SLG, 34SB, 34CS, 384HR, 1299R, 1628RBI

Basically, Dawson had better speed and hit more HR, but Baines was superior at hitting for avg & far superior at getting on base. ALso, FWIW there's a stat about run creation per 27 outs, and Harold is worth .5 runs/27 more than Dawson, which to me seems significant. But the headline's all about "Hawk" and Harold gets second billing.........:angry:

Dawson also won 8 gold gloves. I know in recent years, it has become a less legitimate award, but he deserved those. He was an incredible OF'er and a true 5-tool guy. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he was also only the 2nd guy to go 300-300. Don't flame me, I was a fan of Dawson's back when he was with Montreal. Baines was my favorite as a kid, but Dawson was just a great all-around player. I think he should be in the hall.

voodoochile
12-15-2006, 01:02 PM
Hmmm, that kind of semi-optimistic, want-and-see approach isn't going to go over will with some people on these boards!

I'm not going to get worked up until something glaring shows up early in the year, and even if there is, I'm not convinced there is any player outside the organization that really could have prevented it.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the Sox make some major acquisitions, but if they don't, I don't feel they team completely sucks and is destined for 3rd place. Nothing from last year makes me feel that way.

A bounce here, a bounce there and the Sox beat out the Twinkies or kittens. That's baseball and goofy things happen in a 162 game season.

This team still has plenty of talent and for once there is some good close to MLB ready talent to draw from in the minors if something goes wrong.

Am I jumping up and down for joy? No, but I am not getting ready to put my head in a noose either and the people who are seem overly silly to me...

palehozenychicty
12-15-2006, 01:19 PM
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the Sox make some major acquisitions, but if they don't, I don't feel they team completely sucks and is destined for 3rd place. Nothing from last year makes me feel that way.

A bounce here, a bounce there and the Sox beat out the Twinkies or kittens. That's baseball and goofy things happen in a 162 game season.

This team still has plenty of talent and for once there is some good close to MLB ready talent to draw from in the minors if something goes wrong.

Am I jumping up and down for joy? No, but I am not getting ready to put my head in a noose either and the people who are seem overly silly to me...

Thank you for the voice of reason. Unless the Sox make a blockbuster trade, this team constituted needs minor BP tweaking to win the division again next year.

TheOldRoman
12-15-2006, 01:29 PM
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the Sox make some major acquisitions, but if they don't, I don't feel they team completely sucks and is destined for 3rd place. Nothing from last year makes me feel that way.

A bounce here, a bounce there and the Sox beat out the Twinkies or kittens. That's baseball and goofy things happen in a 162 game season.

This team still has plenty of talent and for once there is some good close to MLB ready talent to draw from in the minors if something goes wrong.

Am I jumping up and down for joy? No, but I am not getting ready to put my head in a noose either and the people who are seem overly silly to me...
You are correct. We had 5 great starters who had down years last year. If they were even close to their career norms, we were in the playoffs. Podsednik was injured the whole year, and had a miserable season. Anderson did worse than expected as a rookie, but picked it up a little towards the end. I don't know if the offense will be as potent (Dye specifically), but they will hopefully do better against lefties. They killed lefties in 05, but were horrible in 06. There is a lot to be optomistic about.

Slats
12-15-2006, 03:14 PM
It's just before Christmas and all the other kids (teams) are getting new presents (players). Us? We get our old presents rewrapped.

The Immigrant
12-15-2006, 03:18 PM
It's just before Christmas and all the other kids (teams) are getting new presents (players). Us? We get our old presents rewrapped.

I'd rather get an ice cold lump of coal than Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis, that's for damn sure.

Slats
12-15-2006, 03:21 PM
I'd rather get an ice cold lump of coal than Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis, that's for damn sure.

No doubt!
But there were other options out there.

Ah, the season hasn't started. Maybe we'll get something done.

Gavin
12-15-2006, 03:29 PM
I'd rather be pessimistic and looking at settling for the wild-card than optimistic and looking like we're due for at least the wild card. KW has done nothing to give me faith that this year's Sox will be any different in makeup than last year's. It may be a few "bad bounces" that left the Sox home in October, but I'd prefer that the team be set up that even "bad bounces" don't wreck the season.

caulfield12
12-15-2006, 04:18 PM
I'd rather be pessimistic and looking at settling for the wild-card than optimistic and looking like we're due for at least the wild card. KW has done nothing to give me faith that this year's Sox will be any different in makeup than last year's. It may be a few "bad bounces" that left the Sox home in October, but I'd prefer that the team be set up that even "bad bounces" don't wreck the season.


The Yankees were set up that way this year, and it still didn't help them. They had an All-Star at every position.

Same thing with the Red Sox rotation coming into 2007. We'll have to wait and see if they actually make the playoffs this time around.

spiffie
12-15-2006, 04:32 PM
You are correct. We had 5 great starters who had down years last year. If they were even close to their career norms, we were in the playoffs. Podsednik was injured the whole year, and had a miserable season. Anderson did worse than expected as a rookie, but picked it up a little towards the end. I don't know if the offense will be as potent (Dye specifically), but they will hopefully do better against lefties. They killed lefties in 05, but were horrible in 06. There is a lot to be optomistic about.
Jon Garland career ERA: 4.44 2006 ERA: 4.51
Jose Contreras career ERA: 4.28 2006 ERA: 4.27
Javier Vazquez career ERA: 4.34 2006 ERA: 4.84
Freddy Garcia career ERA: 4.01 2006 ERA: 4.53
Mark Buehrle career ERA: 3.83 2006 ERA: 4.99

So two guys were right at their career average, one guy was below his career average but in line with his last few years (Vazquez), and two guys underperformed what could be reasonably expected of them. And only one of those guys is coming back next season.

Podsednik has been injured and not 100% for over a year. He has to prove this year that he is the player he was before the hernia. Otherwise his MLB career will not last much longer.

We hope Anderson will live up to his potential. We have seen enough players in baseball not do so. I suspect Anderson will do better this year at the plate, but on the other hand would not be surprised to see him stumble again.

Dye is almost certain to slip, as last year blew away anything he's ever done. Crede is a dicey proposition. Did he finally arrive, or is this like Rowand and Uribe in 2004? I tend to believe he's going to produce similar to last year, but I'd like to see one more year like he gave in 2006 before I expect that. Uribe is still a sinkhole even on his best days. He's going into his seventh season with a grand total of one good year. And Thome, I love him, but he is a risk. His OPS fell over 100 points in the second half as his SLG% went way down. He hit 30 HR in the first half and only 12 in the second half. I don't see him becoming a liability or even a less than one of the top 4 DH's in the AL, but I'd expect his OPS to drop down to a level in the high 900's.

As for the pen...we have 3 guys I like, and 3 open slots. I'm not exactly comfortable with the idea of Aardsma/Floyd/Haeger filling them. That seems like a recipe for a lot of leads lost in the 6th and 7th innings, before we can get to the three shutdown guys.

Right now the Sox look like a team that's right to win about 88-91 games. I figure it's not likely they will go 53-28 in the first 81 games, nor is it likely they will go 37-44 in their last 81 games. They are likely to be somewhere in the middle of that. The question is will 88-91 wins be enough to make the playoffs.

Hitmen77
12-15-2006, 06:26 PM
You are correct. We had 5 great starters who had down years last year. If they were even close to their career norms, we were in the playoffs. Podsednik was injured the whole year, and had a miserable season. Anderson did worse than expected as a rookie, but picked it up a little towards the end. I don't know if the offense will be as potent (Dye specifically), but they will hopefully do better against lefties. They killed lefties in 05, but were horrible in 06. There is a lot to be optomistic about.

Another thing I think will help somewhat is that the Sox will no longer have the pressure of being the defending world champs next year. In '06, it seemed like every opponent got especially charged up to take on the world champs.

....also, I'm excepting that the Sox will benefit to some degree from a lack of world series "hangover" next year. Even with the best intentions, I would imagine that the last offseason was a distraction for all the '05 Sox players. Maybe the team will comeback refreshed, refocused, and hungry again.

Don't get me wrong. I'd love to have these same "problems" again going into the '08 season. :smile:

Hitmen77
12-15-2006, 06:28 PM
I'd rather get an ice cold lump of coal than Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis, that's for damn sure.

Post of the week.

I'd rather be pessimistic and looking at settling for the wild-card than optimistic and looking like we're due for at least the wild card. KW has done nothing to give me faith that this year's Sox will be any different in makeup than last year's. It may be a few "bad bounces" that left the Sox home in October, but I'd prefer that the team be set up that even "bad bounces" don't wreck the season.

You're just saying that because you're happy the Sox acquired someone named "Gavin". :tongue:

jabrch
12-15-2006, 07:20 PM
I'd rather be pessimistic

Good - then I hope you are miserable and rottenly pessimistic.

I'd rather be realistic and objective.

Gavin
12-15-2006, 11:03 PM
I love it when you take what I said out of context, troll.

MetroPD
12-16-2006, 02:18 AM
I'd like some middle relief, any middle relief. If Ted Lilly or Jason Marquis would be effective then so be it, but we need bodies.

oeo
12-16-2006, 03:00 AM
Jon Garland career ERA: 4.44 2006 ERA: 4.51
Jose Contreras career ERA: 4.28 2006 ERA: 4.27
Javier Vazquez career ERA: 4.34 2006 ERA: 4.84
Freddy Garcia career ERA: 4.01 2006 ERA: 4.53
Mark Buehrle career ERA: 3.83 2006 ERA: 4.99

So two guys were right at their career average, one guy was below his career average but in line with his last few years (Vazquez), and two guys underperformed what could be reasonably expected of them. And only one of those guys is coming back next season.

Podsednik has been injured and not 100% for over a year. He has to prove this year that he is the player he was before the hernia. Otherwise his MLB career will not last much longer.

We hope Anderson will live up to his potential. We have seen enough players in baseball not do so. I suspect Anderson will do better this year at the plate, but on the other hand would not be surprised to see him stumble again.

Dye is almost certain to slip, as last year blew away anything he's ever done. Crede is a dicey proposition. Did he finally arrive, or is this like Rowand and Uribe in 2004? I tend to believe he's going to produce similar to last year, but I'd like to see one more year like he gave in 2006 before I expect that. Uribe is still a sinkhole even on his best days. He's going into his seventh season with a grand total of one good year. And Thome, I love him, but he is a risk. His OPS fell over 100 points in the second half as his SLG% went way down. He hit 30 HR in the first half and only 12 in the second half. I don't see him becoming a liability or even a less than one of the top 4 DH's in the AL, but I'd expect his OPS to drop down to a level in the high 900's.

As for the pen...we have 3 guys I like, and 3 open slots. I'm not exactly comfortable with the idea of Aardsma/Floyd/Haeger filling them. That seems like a recipe for a lot of leads lost in the 6th and 7th innings, before we can get to the three shutdown guys.

Right now the Sox look like a team that's right to win about 88-91 games. I figure it's not likely they will go 53-28 in the first 81 games, nor is it likely they will go 37-44 in their last 81 games. They are likely to be somewhere in the middle of that. The question is will 88-91 wins be enough to make the playoffs.

If that one guy who is coming back has a career normal year, then the Sox would have made the postseason. And Contreras' career elsewhere has been different than it has been here. He's proven that he can be a staff ace (remember that winning streak that was carried from August of 2005 into 2006 until he was injured?)...his career numbers are misleading. Same with Garland because he didn't come into his own until 2005...he's still fairly young.

If we get a healthy Contreras back and Buehrle comes back, then this rotation is just as good as they were in 2005, if not better. And I say better because I have high hopes for McCarthy, and Vazquez can put up better numbers than El Duque did (and give more innings).