PDA

View Full Version : Horrible predictions


Iwritecode
03-08-2002, 12:26 PM
If I didn't know better I would think that this guy is a fan of the :scrubs

What's he smoking? (http://www.strikethree.com/02/02/13/dave.shtml#nl)

I can see why his predictions are so screwed up though.

So how will they fare this year? First, I took all thirty major league baseball teams and figured out a rough starting lineup and pitching rotation for each. Then I calculated an average OPS for the starting lineup, and an ERA for the rotation, based mostly on last year’s performances. I figured that, on balance, the ups and downs of nine players would even out.

If he based everything on last years numbers he is going to be in for a big surprise. This year's team is quite a bit different from last years.

From those OPS and ERA values, I determined team runs scored and allowed based on last year’s team numbers. Then I adjusted them so that the runs scored equaled the runs allowed. (Generally speaking, the starting lineups would score more runs if they had all the ABs, and the top five starters would give up fewer runs if they pitched all the innings.)

Am I just reading this wrong or what? He adjusted the numbers so that the runs scored equaled the runs allowed? What's that mean? Also, how would the starters give up less runs if they pitched more innings?

moochpuppy
03-08-2002, 12:31 PM
:tool

"Hmmm.....that looks like what we do in our accounting department."

NUCatsFan
03-08-2002, 12:51 PM
It's actually kind of funny. According to his predictions, Minnesota and the Sox tie for first in the division with a whopping 81 wins apiece! And Detroit comes in third! Whoyacrappin? Meanwhile, the Cubs win the NL Central with 95 wins, and STL and Houston tie for second with 91. Anyone else see a problem with these predictions?

Iwritecode
03-08-2002, 12:55 PM
Originally posted by NUCatsFan
It's actually kind of funny. According to his predictions, Minnesota and the Sox tie for first in the division with a whopping 81 wins apiece! And Detroit comes in third! Whoyacrappin? Meanwhile, the Cubs win the NL Central with 95 wins, and STL and Houston tie for second with 91. Anyone else see a problem with these predictions?

I know, that's why I wanted everyone to see them. I wasnt' sure whether to laugh or cry...

If you look to the right there are two other guys that made predictions. Theirs seem a little more based in reality...