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app2686
12-04-2006, 08:47 PM
The writers of baseball prospectus have started an online blog; and here's what they have to say about KW's offseason moves, or lack thereof:

White Sox in position of strength (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=38)


Posted by Nate Silver @ December 4, 2006, 01:44 AM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/images/team/50x50/cha.jpgThe White Sox (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=CHA) have been one of the quieter teams thus far this winter. But you have to think that the dynamics of the market play perfectly into their hands ó and that Kenny Williams (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/willike02.shtml) could emerge as the star of this weekís action in Orlando.


If thereís one thing that Williams has a knack for, itís timing the market. Virtually all of his moves, from trading for David Wells (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/wellsda01.php) to the late snagging of Tadahito Iguchi (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/iguchta01.php) and A.J. Pierzynski (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/pierzaj01.php) a couple of winters ago ó came as surprises to most observers. Some of these moves turned out better than in others, but in each case Williams was working on his own terms.
That characteristic could become very powerful when coupled with another strength of the White Sox ó they have the luxury of standing pat. If the White Sox went into 2007 without making any significant changes to their roster, theyíd have a team that would be plenty capable of contending for a playoff spot, with a little bit of flexibility to boot in allowing Josh Fields (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/FIELDS19821214A.php), Ryan Sweeney (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/SWEENEY19850220A.php), and Brandon McCarthy (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/mccarbr01.php) to compete for starting jobs. In that vein, I donít mind their re-signing Scott Podesdnik (http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061201&content_id=1748750&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws), who didnít cost them too much, and has his uses as a 300 PA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA) guy.


Now, Iím not suggesting that the White Sox should stand pat. On the contrary, theyíre one of the few teams that has the capability of improving themselves without having to overpay to do so. And Williamsí history suggests that heíll take advantage of this opportunity. Iím thinking big here ó bigger than the Joe Crede (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/credejo01.php)-Chone Figgins (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/figgich01.php) rumors that have been batted about so far. Iím thinking that the White Sox could emerge as the surprise winners of the Manny Ramirez (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/ramirma02.php) derby. Iím thinking that Pat Burrell (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/burrepa01.php) or Adam Dunn (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/dunnad01.php) could wind up as their left fielder. Iím even thinking that they could sweep in and sign Barry Bonds (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/bondsba01.php); Williams has denied interest, but the same was true of Pierzynski two years ago, and thatís turned out very well for him.


It might not happen in Orlando. It might not happen until February or March. But Iíd be surprised if the White Sox donít create some of the biggest headlines of the winter.



Original source: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=38

HomeFish
12-04-2006, 08:53 PM
I'm not convinced we need another big bat. What cost us a playoff run in 2006 was not the offense, but the bullpen. The bullpen is what Kenny failed to improve in the 2005/2006 offseason, and our situation there has only gotten worse.

That said, if we got Manny (or some other good offensive player) in addition to help in the bullpen, I would be the first person to not complain. But if we can only have one, it should be bullpen help.

santo=dorf
12-04-2006, 08:58 PM
HUH?
The bullpen has gotten a lot better since the beginning of last season.

Politte is gone, Cotts is gone, Hermanson is gone, Logan will get a longer look before starting the season in the BP, Thornton is an upgrade over Marte, MacDougal is very good as is Jenks. McCarthy will not be in the pen either, a role he wasn't comfortable in.

The Sox didn't make the playoffs last season because of starting pitching the and competition in their own division playing their tails off.

How exactly was KW supposed to improve upon the 2005 versions of Cotts, Politte, and Hermanson? :rolleyes: Don't bother wasting your time on that one HF.

soxfanatlanta
12-04-2006, 08:59 PM
Barry Bonds? Are you for real?

:hawk

"Where's he gonna get his juice?"

Beer Can Chicken
12-04-2006, 09:03 PM
The writers of baseball prospectus have started an online blog; and here's what they have to say about KW's offseason moves, or lack thereof:

White Sox in position of strength (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=38)


Posted by Nate Silver @ December 4, 2006, 01:44 AM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/images/team/50x50/cha.jpgThe White Sox (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=CHA) have been one of the quieter teams thus far this winter. But you have to think that the dynamics of the market play perfectly into their hands ó and that Kenny Williams (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/willike02.shtml) could emerge as the star of this weekís action in Orlando.


If thereís one thing that Williams has a knack for, itís timing the market. Virtually all of his moves, from trading for David Wells (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/wellsda01.php) to the late snagging of Tadahito Iguchi (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/iguchta01.php) and A.J. Pierzynski (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/pierzaj01.php) a couple of winters ago ó came as surprises to most observers. Some of these moves turned out better than in others, but in each case Williams was working on his own terms.
That characteristic could become very powerful when coupled with another strength of the White Sox ó they have the luxury of standing pat. If the White Sox went into 2007 without making any significant changes to their roster, theyíd have a team that would be plenty capable of contending for a playoff spot, with a little bit of flexibility to boot in allowing Josh Fields (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/FIELDS19821214A.php), Ryan Sweeney (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/SWEENEY19850220A.php), and Brandon McCarthy (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/mccarbr01.php) to compete for starting jobs. In that vein, I donít mind their re-signing Scott Podesdnik (http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061201&content_id=1748750&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws), who didnít cost them too much, and has his uses as a 300 PA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA) guy.


Now, Iím not suggesting that the White Sox should stand pat. On the contrary, theyíre one of the few teams that has the capability of improving themselves without having to overpay to do so. And Williamsí history suggests that heíll take advantage of this opportunity. Iím thinking big here ó bigger than the Joe Crede (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/credejo01.php)-Chone Figgins (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/figgich01.php) rumors that have been batted about so far. Iím thinking that the White Sox could emerge as the surprise winners of the Manny Ramirez (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/ramirma02.php) derby. Iím thinking that Pat Burrell (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/burrepa01.php) or Adam Dunn (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/dunnad01.php) could wind up as their left fielder. Iím even thinking that they could sweep in and sign Barry Bonds (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/bondsba01.php); Williams has denied interest, but the same was true of Pierzynski two years ago, and thatís turned out very well for him.


It might not happen in Orlando. It might not happen until February or March. But Iíd be surprised if the White Sox donít create some of the biggest headlines of the winter.



Original source: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=38

Bonds, Burrell or Dunn? The madness stops here.

peeonwrigley
12-04-2006, 09:03 PM
I'm selling all my tickets if Kenny signs Bonds.

Seriously, though, despite the rather baseless speculation about the names, this article is right on about the Sox dealing from a position of strength. I expect myself to be happy with our offseason come March.

Beer Can Chicken
12-04-2006, 09:08 PM
I'm selling all my tickets if Kenny signs Bonds.

Seriously, though, despite the rather baseless speculation about the names, this article is right on about the Sox dealing from a position of strength. I expect myself to be happy with our offseason come March.

I personally think we are in no stronger a position than we were at the trading deadline this past year. The pitching market is so inflated that everybody will stand pat becasue of the ridiculously high asking prices. Just my opinion.

soxinem1
12-04-2006, 09:08 PM
I think Burrell or Dunn are two real possibilities here, as both are starving for SP and would take on the salary to do so.

But I am absolutely disgusted about the Bonds thing even being mentioned. No way he comes here. I know Scheuler liked grabbing controversial players, and KW snapped up a couple himself. But if Barry would come here, I would lose a TON of respect for KW. I'd rather have Rowand or Lofton back to play LF, and those guys are definitely not on y wish list.

At least Manny still has a cannon, and I'd rather have Thome or PK in LF than Bonds. What a joke.

Can you imagine Ozzie blowing a head gasket over Barry or Manny's defense?

It might be worth Barry getting a couple golden showers in LF, but, one has to wonder, where do these speculative rumors come from?

app2686
12-04-2006, 09:14 PM
I think some posters here are missing the idea here.

The point of the article seems to be that we shouldn't be so quick to write off Kenny Williams due to the White Sox's lack of moves compared to other organizations around the league.

It seems the writer is suggesting that KW's lack of moves are due to at least 2 reasons:

(1) The White Sox as they stand now are still a very competitive team and have a bit more flexibility within the organization than other teams that are clearly splurging and spending.

(2) The writer seems to be using "big" names to suggest the GENERAL IDEA that KW may end up landing a(some) "big" name free agent(s) in the future via free agency or trade. We don't know when it will be b/c KW will wait for the opportune moment as is his nature.

lakeviewsoxfan
12-04-2006, 09:17 PM
Adam Dunn sucks in left he will not be coming we have him on our team his name is Jim Thome but Thome is a hell of alot better.

Dolanski
12-04-2006, 10:17 PM
Just Say NO! to Barroids!!!!

On a more serious note, it basically says what we all know, Trader Ken is waiting in the weeds to pounce on a good deal.

Hokiesox
12-04-2006, 10:31 PM
HUH?
The Sox didn't make the playoffs last season because of starting pitching the and competition in their own division playing their tails off.


The Sox lost the division by 6 games. How many games did the bullpen come in with leads and lose them in the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings? A heckuva lot more than 6. The BP was excruciating to watch last year, and it sure wasn't bad starting pitching that lost the division.

guillen4life13
12-04-2006, 10:39 PM
The Sox lost the division by 6 games. How many games did the bullpen come in with leads and lose them in the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings? A heckuva lot more than 6. The BP was excruciating to watch last year, and it sure wasn't bad starting pitching that lost the division.

It was good starting pitching that won though.

Oh wait, but that good starting pitching wasn't on the white sox.
http://espn-ak.starwave.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/65x90/6441.jpg
hola! como estas?

Hokiesox
12-04-2006, 10:51 PM
I don't think our starting pitching was as good as MN or Detwoix, but our starting pitching didn't lose the division. They had us in the amount of games we needed to win, to win. Perhaps I should clarify that point.

Lip Man 1
12-04-2006, 10:57 PM
Hokie:

I checked and published your question at the end of the season. Nine times the Sox lost games directly charged to the bullpen in 2006. Those happened in either the 7th, 8th or 9th innings. Three additional times it was the starters who lost the lead in the 7th, 8th or 9th innings.

My only other comment is that if Boone Logan is on the opening day roster, the bullpen is in trouble (and that comment may also include Charlie Haegar.)

Lip

lakeviewsoxfan
12-04-2006, 11:00 PM
Hokie:

I checked and published your question at the end of the season. Nine times the Sox lost games directly charged to the bullpen in 2006. Those happened in either the 7th, 8th or 9th innings. Three additional times it was the starters who lost the lead in the 7th, 8th or 9th innings.

My only other comment is that if Boone Logan is on the opening day roster, the bullpen is in trouble (and that comment may also include Charlie Haegar.)

Lip

Lip

If Logan is in our pen on April 2nd KW did not do a good job filling the teams biggest need, Boone Logan had a good ST thats it he is not very good.

santo=dorf
12-04-2006, 11:13 PM
The Sox lost the division by 6 games. How many games did the bullpen come in with leads and lose them in the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings? A heckuva lot more than 6. The BP was excruciating to watch last year, and it sure wasn't bad starting pitching that lost the division.
I'm guessing it was fewer than the number of times Javier crapped himself in the 6th, Buehrle gave up 5+ runs in the first 3 innings, or Garland rolled pitches up to Frank that ended up somewhere on the Dan Ryan. I should also add it didn't help to have 4 automatic outs in the lineup as well (Pods, Uribe, Anderson, and our catchers in the second half.)

The bullpen faces the fewest numbers of players in a game. It starts with the starting pitching (they face about 900+ batters a year,) then the offense (each player has 600+ PA's,) and then the BP (70 innings TOPS in a season.)

Flight #24
12-04-2006, 11:15 PM
Bonds, Burrell or Dunn? The madness stops here.

Bonds ain't comin. KW knows the full-court press the Cubune would put on the Sox were they to sign Barroids. It pretty much wouldn't matter even if they won the WS.

But Dunn, there's an interesting prospect. Not because of him, but because of the guy rumored in other Dunn trades I've seen - Ryan Freel. Freel can play pretty much any position on the field, steals bases well and has a little pop in his bat. And, he gets on base. I'm not sure what kind of SS D he plays, but if it's solid - that could be the leadoff SS that would be a perfect fit with this team. Then you either plug Dunn into LF or if you prefer - I think he's got significant value on the market. Hell - the Padres are rumored to be willing to trade Linebrink for him, so you could do a 3-way with Garcia to the Reds, Dunn to the Pads, and Linebrink & Freel to the Sox. Fields or Sweeney go into LF and you solved your leadoff & BP issues.

Burrell's a bit more of a "meh", but if you can get Rollins.......go to it!

Jjav829
12-04-2006, 11:19 PM
I don't think there is any question KW will make a trade involving a starter. It's just a matter of how big of a trade. The problem with all of those names is that they are all left fielders. As it stands, our only option at leadoff hitter is a left fielder. So, if KW were to make a trade for Dunn, Burrell or Manny (all 3 highly unlikely IMO), he would have to make another trade for a leadoff hitter who plays center or short.

If we do make a BIG deal, Arod makes much more sense.

ondafarm
12-04-2006, 11:45 PM
If Logan is in our pen on April 2nd KW did not do a good job filling the teams biggest need, Boone Logan had a good ST thats it he is not very good.

I think the jury is out on Logan. He did seem to react very badly to appearing with the major league club, but then he went down and supposedly worked on what he needed to and did well. He's a young kid and I'm not ready to consider him trash.

johnnyg83
12-05-2006, 12:44 AM
Bonds, Burrell and Dunn maybe physically bigger than Crede/Figgins, but I'd be happier with <teal>Crede in LF </teal>before any one of those guys.

schmitty9800
12-05-2006, 01:33 AM
I don't think there is any question KW will make a trade involving a starter. It's just a matter of how big of a trade. The problem with all of those names is that they are all left fielders. As it stands, our only option at leadoff hitter is a left fielder. So, if KW were to make a trade for Dunn, Burrell or Manny (all 3 highly unlikely IMO), he would have to make another trade for a leadoff hitter who plays center or short.

If we do make a BIG deal, Arod makes much more sense.
This piece doesn't mention it but I heard that KW inquired into Vernon Wells from Rotoworld, they'd want Garland and possibly BA or someone else. That would make a lot of sense. As for whether it'd be good or not, I don't think he's worth that unless we get an extention done (Wells will command anywhere from 14-20 per year in free agency next year). There's no word on whether Wells is even available though.

Finally, I'd like Burrell, but probably not Dunn (low BA, 194 K's playing vs. the NL Central????) or Bonds (circus, would be for one/two years). Although if Bonds came here for the right price/situation I'd be happy.

DSpivack
12-05-2006, 03:46 AM
This piece doesn't mention it but I heard that KW inquired into Vernon Wells from Rotoworld, they'd want Garland and possibly BA or someone else. That would make a lot of sense. As for whether it'd be good or not, I don't think he's worth that unless we get an extention done (Wells will command anywhere from 14-20 per year in free agency next year). There's no word on whether Wells is even available though.

Finally, I'd like Burrell, but probably not Dunn (low BA, 194 K's playing vs. the NL Central????) or Bonds (circus, would be for one/two years). Although if Bonds came here for the right price/situation I'd be happy.

I like Dunn much better than Burrell. While both may be power hitters who strike out a lot, Dunn has a lot more power than Burrell. Dunn has three straight 40 HR seasons, and four 100 BB season in his five-year career. Plus Dunn probably costs less money.

soxinem1
12-05-2006, 08:04 AM
Bonds ain't comin. KW knows the full-court press the Cubune would put on the Sox were they to sign Barroids. It pretty much wouldn't matter even if they won the WS.

But Dunn, there's an interesting prospect. Not because of him, but because of the guy rumored in other Dunn trades I've seen - Ryan Freel. Freel can play pretty much any position on the field, steals bases well and has a little pop in his bat. And, he gets on base. I'm not sure what kind of SS D he plays, but if it's solid - that could be the leadoff SS that would be a perfect fit with this team. Then you either plug Dunn into LF or if you prefer - I think he's got significant value on the market. Hell - the Padres are rumored to be willing to trade Linebrink for him, so you could do a 3-way with Garcia to the Reds, Dunn to the Pads, and Linebrink & Freel to the Sox. Fields or Sweeney go into LF and you solved your leadoff & BP issues.

Burrell's a bit more of a "meh", but if you can get Rollins.......go to it!

I like the Rollins theory, but Dunn/Freel is a problem. Dunn is an overtime K machine and Freel cannot seem to stay away from problems with the law. We can gripe about the distractions of Manny, Barry, and other egomaniacs, but if the role players start acting like ****heads, ala Jose Paniagua, no way. They are definitely no better.

jenn2080
12-05-2006, 08:27 AM
I'm selling all my tickets if Kenny signs Bonds.

Seriously, though, despite the rather baseless speculation about the names, this article is right on about the Sox dealing from a position of strength. I expect myself to be happy with our offseason come March.



You and I both! I think I would rather watch games at Wrigley for the whole season then watch Barry Bonds.

russ99
12-05-2006, 08:27 AM
If Logan is in our pen on April 2nd KW did not do a good job filling the teams biggest need, Boone Logan had a good ST thats it he is not very good.

I think Jenks, Thornton, MacDougal and Aardsma will be part of a good relief staff, but we're really at the same point as last year.

The Sox really need one more solid guy. I can understand Kenny not paying the obscene dollars going to relievers on the FA market this offseason, but he needs to do something or we're right back where the Sox were last spring.

Domeshot17
12-05-2006, 08:38 AM
Put me in with the Im not ready to give up on Logan campaign. The kid is so young, IIRC, dominated triple A last year, has good make up just needs to put it all together. Maybe a complete spring training of working with him and preparing him for he bigs instead of him being an afterthought as all the time gets put into javier lopez and the southpaw dozen waiting for 1 of them to beat him out.

That being said, if we could move a 2nd tier spec, Rogowski or co., and get Mike Gonzalez from the pirates, that would be awesome as well.

I also hope with this market, linebrink and freel is no where near the value a freddy garcia has. im a big fan of linebrink, but not sure how a reliever coming from a pitchers park in baseballs softest division (and the NL) would fair in USCF. Freel has always struck me as a guy who is good, but at the same time, if he was that good, why can't he lock down a starting position and become an everyday player. He is basically a more versatile julio lugo.

Lip Man 1
12-05-2006, 01:43 PM
I'm not ready to give up on Logan either, however I'm also not ready to 'give' him the job again because there simply isn't any competition. He was overmatched at the big league level.

Remember you're talking about a guy with very little minor league experience above rookie league and that didn't come until the Sox finally shipped him out to Charlotte.

Keep him in the system, let him work another year or two at the minor league level and see what you have. But right now clearly he does not have what it takes to get guys out consistently in game situations at the MLB level.

I don't want another boatload of blown games in 2007 because the bullpen couldn't hold the lead in the 7th and 8th innings.

Lip

Ol' No. 2
12-05-2006, 04:40 PM
I'm not ready to give up on Logan either, however I'm also not ready to 'give' him the job again because there simply isn't any competition. He was overmatched at the big league level.

Remember you're talking about a guy with very little minor league experience above rookie league and that didn't come until the Sox finally shipped him out to Charlotte.

Keep him in the system, let him work another year or two at the minor league level and see what you have. But right now clearly he does not have what it takes to get guys out consistently in game situations at the MLB level.

I don't want another boatload of blown games in 2007 because the bullpen couldn't hold the lead in the 7th and 8th innings.

LipLogan wasn't "given" the job last year. He got the job because he had a good spring and none of the other options distinguished themselves. He'll compete with everyone else next spring. I think he's got what it takes, but going from A ball to the bigs was just too big a leap.

Lip Man 1
12-05-2006, 06:46 PM
No.2:

Perhaps we are differing in semantics. To me Logan was 'given' the job because out of the group of discards and midgets brought in to try to fill the bullpen holes, he was the tallest midget.

That doesn't mean he was worth a damn in the first place though.

Lip

HomeFish
12-05-2006, 07:49 PM
I'm guessing it was fewer than the number of times Javier crapped himself in the 6th, Buehrle gave up 5+ runs in the first 3 innings, or Garland rolled pitches up to Frank that ended up somewhere on the Dan Ryan. I should also add it didn't help to have 4 automatic outs in the lineup as well (Pods, Uribe, Anderson, and our catchers in the second half.)


Well, even if the problem is starting pitching and not relief pitching, pitching in general should be where our priority is.

Have we forgotten the teams of the early 2000's?


but probably not Dunn (low BA, 194 K's playing vs. the NL Central????).

Remember that game in Cincy last season when Contreras pitched against a lineup with Dunn in it? Easiest 13k game ever.

soxwon
12-05-2006, 08:11 PM
I'm selling all my tickets if Kenny signs Bonds.

Seriously, though, despite the rather baseless speculation about the names, this article is right on about the Sox dealing from a position of strength. I expect myself to be happy with our offseason come March.

ill buy em!!! damn straight i would.

IronFisk
12-05-2006, 09:05 PM
I'm guessing it was fewer than the number of times Javier crapped himself in the 6th, Buehrle gave up 5+ runs in the first 3 innings, or Garland rolled pitches up to Frank that ended up somewhere on the Dan Ryan. I should also add it didn't help to have 4 automatic outs in the lineup as well (Pods, Uribe, Anderson, and our catchers in the second half.)

The bullpen faces the fewest numbers of players in a game. It starts with the starting pitching (they face about 900+ batters a year,) then the offense (each player has 600+ PA's,) and then the BP (70 innings TOPS in a season.)

Amen. Print it. We have a winner. Case Closed. Hasta la Vista. You can put it on the Board, Etc.