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White Sox Randy
11-21-2006, 10:16 AM
Let's see....Pierre gets $ 9 mil. a year for 5 years....

Soriano gets $ 17 mil. a year for 8 years....

I guess we can wave goodbye to Dye soon.

He should get....what.....$ 16-18 mil. a year for 4-6 years ? Maybe more.

Too bad we didn't lock him up during the season - our MVP !

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 10:27 AM
Let's see....Pierre gets $ 9 mil. a year for 5 years....

Soriano gets $ 17 mil. a year for 8 years....

I guess we can wave goodbye to Dye soon.

He should get....what.....$ 16-18 mil. a year for 4-6 years ? Maybe more.

Too bad we didn't lock him up during the season - our MVP !

Same situation with Konerko, Garland and Contreras.

If he wants to stay, he will. At this stage in his career, he's already set for life. And he's not the type of person who is out to "break the bank." JD has always been about the team and blending in, not bringing attention to himself.

Because of his age, his injury history, the statistical probability he can't keep producing at this clip...you'll see a $10-12 million dollar offer for 2-3 years, but nothing longer than three IMO. It's just too big a risk, and one the White Sox wisely avoided with Magglio and C-Lee. It's a lot easier to replace a corner outfielder (see Sweeney, Ryan or Fields, Josh) than it is a starting pitcher in this market.

White Sox Randy
11-21-2006, 10:29 AM
Same situation with Konerko, Garland and Contreras.

If he wants to stay, he will. At this stage in his career, he's already set for life. And he's not the type of person who is out to "break the bank." JD has always been about the team and blending in, not bringing attention to himself.

Because of his age, his injury history, the statistical probability he can't keep producing at this clip...you'll see a $10-12 million dollar offer for 2-3 years, but nothing longer than three IMO. It's just too big a risk, and one the White Sox wisely avoided with Magglio and C-Lee. It's a lot easier to replace a corner outfielder (see Sweeney, Ryan or Fields, Josh) than it is a starting pitcher in this market.


You are WAY WAY off if you think Dye will only be offered 2-3 years for $ 10-12 mil. WAY OFF

munchman33
11-21-2006, 10:39 AM
You are WAY WAY off if you think Dye will only be offered 2-3 years for $ 10-12 mil. WAY OFF

Someone will offer him $60 for four. At least.

EastCoastSoxFan
11-21-2006, 10:39 AM
If Dye in 2007 picks up where he left off in 2006, the Sox will probably make him the kind of offer that Konerko ended up accepting -- one that doesn't break the bank but lets everyone feel that nobody "lost face."

thedudeabides
11-21-2006, 10:40 AM
You are WAY WAY off if you think Dye will only be offered 2-3 years for $ 10-12 mil. WAY OFF

If Dye has a similar season to this year, he'll be one of the top free agents and will be priced out for the Sox. I agree he is a good, stand up guy, that doesn't seem money hungry, but he's not walking away from a massive contract for a 3/$30 million home town discount.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 10:42 AM
You are WAY WAY off if you think Dye will only be offered 2-3 years for $ 10-12 mil. WAY OFF

Jermaine will be 33 when the season starts. This is why we have Sweeney and Fields or minor league systems in general. Magglio wasn't worth $14.5 million, Jermaine WOULD be if you could guarantee he would produce like last year for 4-6 seasons AND never get injured, which has been a trend throughout his career....but that's an extrapolation few teams would make.

Offer him 4-6 years at $15 million, you might as well doom your franchise.

It's not logical. The Dodgers will learn their lesson when Pierre's legs go.

His situation is somewhere between Alou/Thomas/Bonds and a 27 year old in the prime of his career getting his first FA deal.

If Dye does get $15 million, 1) the White Sox won't give it to him and 2) Zito and Schmidt will get $17-18 million and they're arguably not even predictable aces any more.

The Twins might as well start paying Santana $25 million.

Jjav829
11-21-2006, 10:48 AM
Right...

Because it makes great sense to extend your 32-year old outfielder right when he's in the middle of what is by far a career year.

Does anyone really think Dye is going to hit .315 with 44 HRs, 120 RBI and a 1.006 OPS next year?

cbotnyse
11-21-2006, 10:50 AM
Right...

Because it makes great sense to extend your 32-year old outfielder right when he's in the middle of what is by far a career year.

Does anyone really think Dye is going to hit .315 with 44 HRs, 120 RBI and a 1.006 OPS next year?sure he can. why not?

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 10:56 AM
Remember all the weeping and gnashing of teeth over Konerko, who was impossible to trade for portions of two seasons?

Imagine a 33/34/35/36 year old outfielder who has already suffered major leg injuries if he gets injured again.

Younger...faster...KW. Rinse. Repeat.

Magglio definitely wasn't worth $14.5 million in the prime of his career. But you're gambling with this franchise if give him the same amount of money as Konerko at age 33.

Gload is not a suitable replacement for Konerko. Neither is Thome.

But we have two in-house options to replace Dye, and one is predicted by half of the White Sox fanbase to be an All-Star RFer...Ryan Sweeney. Why block his path and force us to trade yet another up-and-coming star?

We've already dealt Chris Young and Gio Gonzalez and Lumsden. We can't keep dumping our young talent. The costs of running this franchise will spiral out of control.

Jjav829
11-21-2006, 10:57 AM
Jermaine will be 33 when the season starts. This is why we have Sweeney and Fields or minor league systems in general. Magglio wasn't worth $14.5 million, Jermaine WOULD be if you could guarantee he would produce like last year for 4-6 seasons AND never get injured, which has been a trend throughout his career....but that's an extrapolation few teams would make.

Offer him 4-6 years at $15 million, you might as well doom your franchise.

It's not logical. The Dodgers will learn their lesson when Pierre's legs go.

His situation is somewhere between Alou/Thomas/Bonds and a 27 year old in the prime of his career getting his first FA deal.

If Dye does get $15 million, 1) the White Sox won't give it to him and 2) Zito and Schmidt will get $17-18 million and they're arguably not even predictable aces any more.

The Twins might as well start paying Santana $25 million.

I'd be shocked if Dye gets $15 million. First off, it's high unlikely he reproduces his 2006 season. It's more likely he drops down to something in the .290/30/90/.870 range, which is still good, but not $15 million good.

Second, have you checked out the OF market for next year. It is set to be absolutely loaded. The following OFs could be free agents are this time next year: Ichiro, Andruw Jones, Vernon Wells, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Corey Patterson. Plus some lower tier guys like Milton Bradley, Eric Byrnes, Mike Cameron, Aaron Rowand and Brad Wilkerson. With so much talent possibly hitting the market, Dye is going to be fighting to get the big money.

Chicken Dinner
11-21-2006, 10:58 AM
Right...

Because it makes great sense to extend your 32-year old outfielder right when he's in the middle of what is by far a career year.

Does anyone really think Dye is going to hit .315 with 44 HRs, 120 RBI and a 1.006 OPS next year?

I don't think he will, but he could. It looks like his numbers this year will determine his value. I don't see him as a 15 million dollar a year guy.

White Sox Randy
11-21-2006, 10:59 AM
Right...

Because it makes great sense to extend your 32-year old outfielder right when he's in the middle of what is by far a career year.

Does anyone really think Dye is going to hit .315 with 44 HRs, 120 RBI and a 1.006 OPS next year?


I know who isn't going to ever hit that - Sweeney or Fields.

Yes, today's contracts make"no sense". Everyone says that every year. Yet, every year the salaries go up even more.

During the season, I think the Sox could have given Dye 3 years at $ 12-13 per year.

If he performs close to last year- he'll probably get 5 years at $ 16-18 per year.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 11:04 AM
I know who isn't going to ever hit that - Sweeney or Fields.

Yes, today's contracts make"no sense". Everyone says that every year. Yet, every year the salaries go up even more.

During the season, I think the Sox could have given Dye 3 years at $ 12-13 per year.

If he performs close to last year- he'll probably get 5 years at $ 16-18 per year.

The day this last "line item" occurs is the day a GM has lost his job the next off-season. There's plenty of younger, more talented players that are going to be on the market at the same time.

Jjav829
11-21-2006, 11:04 AM
sure he can. why not?

He could, but is it likely? No. Most players don't suddenly go from producing good numbers to great numbers as their climb into their mid 30s, unless they are on the Barry Bonds training regiment.

In his first 10 seasons, Dye hit 30+ home runs 2 times, 33 in 2000 and 31 in 2005. How likely is it that he suddenly has become a 44 HR guy? Not very.

In his first 10 seasons, Dye had an OPS over .900 twice, once in 2000 and once in a shortened 2001 season. How likely is it that he has now become a 1.000 OPS guy? Not very.

In his first 10 seasons, Dye had an avg over .300 once in 2000. How likely is it that he is now going to continue hitting .315? Not very.

You get the point. Dye's 2006 season was a statistical anomaly. Other than 2000, Dye has never come close to putting up the numbers he put up in 2006. The chances of him repeating those numbers at the age of 33 are not very good. That doesn't mean he won't still be a good player and put up good numbers, as he has done in his career when healthy, but the chances of him continuing to put up great numbers are not very good.

samram
11-21-2006, 11:04 AM
I know who isn't going to ever hit that - Sweeney or Fields.

Yes, today's contracts make"no sense". Everyone says that every year. Yet, every year the salaries go up even more.

During the season, I think the Sox could have given Dye 3 years at $ 12-13 per year.

If he performs close to last year- he'll probably get 5 years at $ 16-18 per year.

Maybe, but that team will be just as dumb to pay Dye $17M or so at age 39 as the Cubs are for committing to pay Soriano that much at age 39.

Jjav829
11-21-2006, 11:08 AM
I know who isn't going to ever hit that - Sweeney or Fields.

Yes, today's contracts make"no sense". Everyone says that every year. Yet, every year the salaries go up even more.

During the season, I think the Sox could have given Dye 3 years at $ 12-13 per year.

If he performs close to last year- he'll probably get 5 years at $ 16-18 per year.

And what leads you to believe that Dye will put up those same numbers?

And did you read my post about the talent available next season? There are about 4 or 5 players worthy of getting a 5-year deal at $16-18 per season. All of that talent being available is going to lead to smaller contracts being handed out.

spiffie
11-21-2006, 11:16 AM
I'd be shocked if Dye gets $15 million. First off, it's high unlikely he reproduces his 2006 season. It's more likely he drops down to something in the .290/30/90/.870 range, which is still good, but not $15 million good.

Second, have you checked out the OF market for next year. It is set to be absolutely loaded. The following OFs could be free agents are this time next year: Ichiro, Andruw Jones, Vernon Wells, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Corey Patterson. Plus some lower tier guys like Milton Bradley, Eric Byrnes, Mike Cameron, Aaron Rowand and Brad Wilkerson. With so much talent possibly hitting the market, Dye is going to be fighting to get the big money.
I'd say it's likely only about half of those guys make it to the open market next year out of the top ones. Wells will almost certainly be moved by the trading deadline next year, and the trade will involve an extension. The Yanks are likely to extend Abreu at some point. Corey Patterson is not a top tier guy by any means, he gets to hang with Rowand and Wilkerson. Hunter will be on the market unless the Twins fall apart this year, in which case they might try to move him and create the same scenario as Wells. I would not be surprised to see Dunn hit the open market, and it sounds like Ichiro wants to test the waters. If Dye does anything at all this year, he seems to me likely to be one of the top 3 or 4 OF out there in FA next year, and will likely see a pretty good sized deal in the 4/60 range judging by the cash being thrown around this year.

White Sox Randy
11-21-2006, 11:24 AM
Let's see.....Gary Sheffield...38 years old...played in 39 games last year due to injury....suspected roids user...big pain the butt....to be used as a DH...just extended....3 years for $ 41 mil. dollars.


We will lose Dye after the season by having not extended him this past season. The Sox will replace him with a lesser player.

World Series are won with great players and they cost money. Oh wait, wasn't he the World Series MVP ? And, he'll be what....3rd, 4th or 5th in AL MVP voting for 2006 ?

Yeah, he no one will give him a huge pile of money. It's not like he's Juan Pierre.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 11:24 AM
So you would pull the trigger and offer Dye four years and $60 million (a little less than Konerko) today?

I have a feeling the White Sox aren't going to last very long as a contender with this type of decision-making.

We got to this point because Hermanson, Pods, AJ, Dye, Iguchi, El Duque, Jenks were UNDERVALUED/UNAPPRECIATED and we identified them as such. Or Thome at between $9-10 million with the subsidy.

We didn't get there by handing out huge contracts to Lee, Ordonez, etc. Buy low...sell high. It makes no sense to give Dye this type of money, at this stage in his career.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 11:27 AM
Let's see.....Gary Sheffield...38 years old...played in 39 games last year....suspected roids user...big pain the butt....to be used as a DH...just extended....3 years for $ 41 mil. dollars.


We will lose Dye after the season by having not extended him this past season. The Sox will replace him with a lesser player.

World Series are won with great players and they cost money. Oh wait, wasn't he the World Series MVP ? And, he'll be what....3rd, 4th or 5th in AL MVP voting for 2006 ?

Yeah, he no one will give him a huge pile of money. It's not like he's Juan Pierre.


Sheffield still has one of the fastest bats in the majors.

He's a DH, so there's less risk of injury than with Jermaine.

Sheffield has put up close to Hall of Fame numbers since the first five years of his career with Milwaukee.

Sure, if JD puts up five more years like 2006, you could say his name in the same breath as Gary Sheffield, but not until then.

And, Sheffield is a clubhouse cancer and I think the Tigers are going to end up with a Randy Moss-like "Raiders headache." The only thing that gives me hope (for the Tigers) is the presence of Leyland and the fact that at this stage of his career, Sheffield is no longer "the man."

White Sox Randy
11-21-2006, 11:32 AM
1. Hell yes, I would give Dye Konerko's contract today.

2. My point of the post was that IT WOULD HAVE TAKEN LESS TO EXTEND HIM A FEW MONTHS AGO - WHICH IS WHAT KW SHOULD HAVE DONE.

3. You would rather pay Sheffield at age 38 to DH than Dye at 33 to play RF ? And, Dye was healthy and Sheff missed 120 games ?

OOOKKKAAAYYYY

White Sox Randy
11-21-2006, 11:34 AM
That outfield of Pods, Anderson and Sweeney is looking real good. We should be able to stay ahead of KC.


I guess Dye might be a big risk now because he has only played in 130 or more games for 7 of the last 8 years with RBI totals of 120, 119, 118, 106, 86, 86 and 80.

Also, if any of you think that Dye will give the Sox a hometown discount, think again. He already did that and has been underpaid for 3 years. He will want to cash in, like all players do, on their final contract.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 11:58 AM
Only 4 out of the last 8 years with 100 or more RBI's.

Never more than 146 games in a season with the exception of 1999 and 2000 (missing 10% of games or more).

Over 502 at-bats in a season (over his entire career), he's averaged 24 homers. Average=84 RBI's.

He's lost a couple of steps since his leg injury in Oakland, and his arm isn't quite what it used to be when he was 23. In fact, due to his loss of mobility, there was speculation he be moved to 1B.

If that's now a $15 million per season player, what is a $20 or $25 or $30 million dollar player?

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 12:01 PM
That outfield of Pods, Anderson and Sweeney is looking real good. We should be able to stay ahead of KC.


I guess Dye might be a big risk now because he has only played in 130 or more games for 7 of the last 8 years with RBI totals of 120, 119, 118, 106, 86, 86 and 80.

Also, if any of you think that Dye will give the Sox a hometown discount, think again. He already did that and has been underpaid for 3 years. He will want to cash in, like all players do, on their final contract.

Sweeney would be fine if we had Vernon Wells in CF...it makes more sense to pay a Gold Glove CFer in the prime of his career that type of money than JD, who's not the same player he used to be defensively. Maybe a notch or two above Magglio, that's it.

White Sox Randy
11-21-2006, 12:12 PM
Only 4 out of the last 8 years with 100 or more RBI's.

Never more than 146 games in a season with the exception of 1999 and 2000 (missing 10% of games or more).

Over 502 at-bats in a season (over his entire career), he's averaged 24 homers. Average=84 RBI's.

He's lost a couple of steps since his leg injury in Oakland, and his arm isn't quite what it used to be when he was 23. In fact, due to his loss of mobility, there was speculation he be moved to 1B.

If that's now a $15 million per season player, what is a $20 or $25 or $30 million dollar player?


Once again for the hard of hearing....Sheffield at ages 38,39, 40 and 41 to be paid $ 14 mil. a year to sit on the bench and not pay the field, act like an ass, bring steriod suspicion and hopefully regain his health after missing 120 games. THIS IS WHERE THE MARKET IS AT !

We don't have Vernon Wells and he probably will be a $ 20 mil a year player for 7 or 8 years.

Oh and Dye - 2005 WORLD SERIES MVP.....2006 5TH MOST VALUABLE PLAYER IN THE ENTIRE AMERICAN LEAGUE ?

You may not want to pay but rest assured many many GM'S will pay him big money. Then us Sox fans can dream about losing the only good OFer that we had.

spiffie
11-21-2006, 12:31 PM
That outfield of Pods, Anderson and Sweeney is looking real good. We should be able to stay ahead of KC.

More likely it would be Owens, not Pods.

Just for fun I got out the very hazy crystal ball. Assuming that we don't want to pay "crazy" contracts that would hamstring us, I'm saying that we won't resign Uribe. If Crede has another year like 2006 I can't see the combination of his back troubles, the progress of Josh Fields, and Scott Boras as agent allowing us to resign him for the likely 5/75 or so it would take in this market. I don't foresee them resigning Buehrle since again, the way starting pitching is going a young horse lefty could be looking at 16 million a year next offseason, but then I don't expect him to do all that well in 2007, so no big loss. I also see Vazquez not being resigned after 2007. So, the 2008 White Sox could be...

1B - Paul Konerko (12 million)
2B - Tadahito Iguchi (estimate $6 million)
SS - Angel Gonzalez ($300,000)
3B - Josh Fields ($400,000)
RF - Ryan Sweeney ($400,000)
CF - Brian Anderson ($400,000)
LF - Jerry Owens ($400,000)
C - AJ Pierzynski ($5.5 million)
DH - Jim Thome ($8 million, assuming Phillies money evenly spread)
Bench - Rob Mackowiak ($3.25 million), Ross Gload ($1 million), Pablo Ozuna ($750,000), Luis Terrero ($400,000), Chris Stewart ($400,000)

SP - Jon Garland ($12 million)
SP - Jose Contreras ($10 million)
SP - Brandon McCarthy ($400,000)
SP - Charlie Haeger ($400,000)
SP - Lance Broadway ($400,000)
Closer - Bobby Jenks ($3 million as Sox rework his deal)
RP - Mike MacDougal ($1 million)
RP - Matt Thornton ($1 million)
RP - David Aardsma ($400,000)
RP - Sean Tracey ($400,000) (edited as I forgot we had traded Haigwood)

Figure with service time raises and all that for guys, and existing deals you're looking at about $68 million right there, and you have a base of lots of exciting young talent bolstered with some all-star veterans. That team could be kept together for years without paying any out-of-whack deals or doing things to cripple our team for years going forward.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 12:52 PM
Ummm...we don't even have Daniel Haigwood any more.

Angel Gonzalez couldn't even be a utility infielder on most teams.

I doubt Owens is more than a 4th/5th outfielder.

Haeger and Broadway?

I think this is a 4th place team in the "new" AL Central.

Minnesota will have a new stadium and be improving. The Indians, with any pitching, are dangerous. KC is getting better and better. And the Tigers might fall off, but they still look strong for the next 2-3 years if Bonderman doesn't fall apart mentally.

maurice
11-21-2006, 12:56 PM
So, the 2008 White Sox could be...
SS - Angel Gonzalez ($300,000)

FWIW, Gonzalez doesn't even play SS in the minors any more.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 12:59 PM
Once again for the hard of hearing....Sheffield at ages 38,39, 40 and 41 to be paid $ 14 mil. a year to sit on the bench and not pay the field, act like an ass, bring steriod suspicion and hopefully regain his health after missing 120 games. THIS IS WHERE THE MARKET IS AT !

We don't have Vernon Wells and he probably will be a $ 20 mil a year player for 7 or 8 years.

Oh and Dye - 2005 WORLD SERIES MVP.....2006 5TH MOST VALUABLE PLAYER IN THE ENTIRE AMERICAN LEAGUE ?

You may not want to pay but rest assured many many GM'S will pay him big money. Then us Sox fans can dream about losing the only good OFer that we had.

I never said the DET deal for Ordonez OR Sheffield was an intelligent one.

The White Sox would have nothing to do with either player at that money and number of years.

I'm arguing against signing Dye for 4-5 years at $15 million per season.

fusillirob1983
11-21-2006, 01:00 PM
I won't make any more comments than this on your proposed 2008 Sox team at the moment:

Wasn't Haigwood part of the Thome trade?

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 01:02 PM
Haigwood was actually traded to the Rangers (with cash) for former Sox farmhand and Rule 5 draft pick LHP Fabio Castro. The irony is that Castro MIGHT have been the answer for us with our LH relief, lol.

So he's been on two teams now since the White Sox.

fusillirob1983
11-21-2006, 01:02 PM
More likely it would be Owens, not Pods.

Just for fun I got out the very hazy crystal ball. Assuming that we don't want to pay "crazy" contracts that would hamstring us, I'm saying that we won't resign Uribe. If Crede has another year like 2006 I can't see the combination of his back troubles, the progress of Josh Fields, and Scott Boras as agent allowing us to resign him for the likely 5/75 or so it would take in this market. I don't foresee them resigning Buehrle since again, the way starting pitching is going a young horse lefty could be looking at 16 million a year next offseason, but then I don't expect him to do all that well in 2007, so no big loss. I also see Vazquez not being resigned after 2007. So, the 2008 White Sox could be...

1B - Paul Konerko (12 million)
2B - Tadahito Iguchi (estimate $6 million)
SS - Angel Gonzalez ($300,000)
3B - Josh Fields ($400,000)
RF - Ryan Sweeney ($400,000)
CF - Brian Anderson ($400,000)
LF - Jerry Owens ($400,000)
C - AJ Pierzynski ($5.5 million)
DH - Jim Thome ($8 million, assuming Phillies money evenly spread)
Bench - Rob Mackowiak ($3.25 million), Ross Gload ($1 million), Pablo Ozuna ($750,000), Luis Terrero ($400,000), Chris Stewart ($400,000)

SP - Jon Garland ($12 million)
SP - Jose Contreras ($10 million)
SP - Brandon McCarthy ($400,000)
SP - Charlie Haeger ($400,000)
SP - Lance Broadway ($400,000)
Closer - Bobby Jenks ($3 million as Sox rework his deal)
RP - Mike MacDougal ($1 million)
RP - Matt Thornton ($1 million)
RP - David Aardsma ($400,000)
RP - Sean Tracey ($400,000) (edited as I forgot we had traded Haigwood)

Figure with service time raises and all that for guys, and existing deals you're looking at about $68 million right there, and you have a base of lots of exciting young talent bolstered with some all-star veterans. That team could be kept together for years without paying any out-of-whack deals or doing things to cripple our team for years going forward.

I was happier with the non-existent Haigwood than Sean Tracey.

spiffie
11-21-2006, 01:06 PM
FWIW, Gonzalez doesn't even play SS in the minors any more.
I blame baseballcube for lying to me on this one then.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 01:08 PM
Gonzalez is at least two (and probably 3) years removed from being considered a true starting prospect.

Not exactly like including Jason Dellaero in our bullpen (or Jason Stumm/Brian West), but close.

BeeBeeRichard
11-21-2006, 01:08 PM
Hey Spliffie, what kind of smoke is clouding your crystal ball? ... yeah, I thought so.

That's a Pittsburgh Pirates roster you have there. In case you didn't know it, we have a GM named Ken Williams who says the goal is to be competitive every year. We won't be rebuilding two years after a world championship -- this is not the Florida Marlins or close. And given salary inflation, even if/when the Sox eventually go into a rebuilding mode, they may never again have a payroll as low as $68 million.


More likely it would be Owens, not Pods.

Just for fun I got out the very hazy crystal ball. Assuming that we don't want to pay "crazy" contracts that would hamstring us, I'm saying that we won't resign Uribe. If Crede has another year like 2006 I can't see the combination of his back troubles, the progress of Josh Fields, and Scott Boras as agent allowing us to resign him for the likely 5/75 or so it would take in this market. I don't foresee them resigning Buehrle since again, the way starting pitching is going a young horse lefty could be looking at 16 million a year next offseason, but then I don't expect him to do all that well in 2007, so no big loss. I also see Vazquez not being resigned after 2007. So, the 2008 White Sox could be...

1B - Paul Konerko (12 million)
2B - Tadahito Iguchi (estimate $6 million)
SS - Angel Gonzalez ($300,000)
3B - Josh Fields ($400,000)
RF - Ryan Sweeney ($400,000)
CF - Brian Anderson ($400,000)
LF - Jerry Owens ($400,000)
C - AJ Pierzynski ($5.5 million)
DH - Jim Thome ($8 million, assuming Phillies money evenly spread)
Bench - Rob Mackowiak ($3.25 million), Ross Gload ($1 million), Pablo Ozuna ($750,000), Luis Terrero ($400,000), Chris Stewart ($400,000)

SP - Jon Garland ($12 million)
SP - Jose Contreras ($10 million)
SP - Brandon McCarthy ($400,000)
SP - Charlie Haeger ($400,000)
SP - Lance Broadway ($400,000)
Closer - Bobby Jenks ($3 million as Sox rework his deal)
RP - Mike MacDougal ($1 million)
RP - Matt Thornton ($1 million)
RP - David Aardsma ($400,000)
RP - Sean Tracey ($400,000) (edited as I forgot we had traded Haigwood)

Figure with service time raises and all that for guys, and existing deals you're looking at about $68 million right there, and you have a base of lots of exciting young talent bolstered with some all-star veterans. That team could be kept together for years without paying any out-of-whack deals or doing things to cripple our team for years going forward.

Lip Man 1
11-21-2006, 01:12 PM
Randy:

To me it sounds like you want these numbers for Dye because you personally like him. There's nothing wrong with that, he's a class guy all the way but look at it from this standpoint....what's to stop the Sox from signing one of those other 'top' free agent outfielders for less money then Dye could command (in your scenario) and gain years and continued good production?

So what if you sign a left fielder (Ichiro) or a center fielder (Wells)? You just move the other guys like Anderson and Sweeney around. Not that big of a deal.

Lip

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 01:12 PM
Hey Spliffie, what kind of smoke is clouding your crystal ball? ... yeah, I thought so.

That's a Pittsburgh Pirates roster you have there. In case you didn't know it, we have a GM named Ken Williams who says the goal is to be competitive every year. We won't be rebuilding two years after a world championship -- this is not the Florida Marlins or close. And given salary inflation, even if/when the Sox eventually go into a rebuilding mode, they may never again have a payroll as low as $68 million.

I was thinking of the mid-to-late 80's teams when I saw this roster.

Of course, they eventually became the 90 team, but that was a long period of suffering for White Sox fans. But they stockpiled those high draft picks into Ventura, Thomas, Fernandez, Alvarez and Sosa through trade, McDowell, Bere, etc.

We don't have that luxury at this point to go THAT far backwards.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 01:15 PM
Randy:

To me it sounds like you want these numbers for Dye because you personally like him. There's nothing wrong with that, he's a class guy all the way but look at it from this standpoint....what's to stop the Sox from signing one of those other 'top' free agent outfielders for less money then Dye could command (in your scenario) and gain years and continued good production?

So what if you sign a left fielder (Ichiro) or a center fielder (Wells)? You just move the other guys like Anderson and Sweeney around. Not that big of a deal.

Lip

I'm not sure if there is anyone out there besides Ichiro (marketing possibilities), A-Rod and Pujols that KW would give that type of contract to.

Maybe Vernon Wells. Maybe Tejada. Not Michael Young...Crawford, etc.

Lip Man 1
11-21-2006, 01:35 PM
Caulfield:

I'm not saying (like Randy) that Dye's going to get 17 million a season. But assuming he does there are a number of free agents next year who can put up similar numbers and will NOT be getting 17 million a season, especially with the 'glut' that could be out there available.

Lip

White Sox Randy
11-21-2006, 02:57 PM
No Lip, I'm not a huge Dye fan. I just think that Kenny blew it here and it will hurt .

I am not at all impressed with what we have internally in the outfield - Anderson, Owens, Fields and Sweeney ? We won't win spit with that and none will approach Dye's level.

Sweeney might be real good in 3 or 4 years.

Therefore,if the SOX hava any hopes of contending in 2007 or beyond, they will have to pay HUGE HUGE bucks to get anyone good like Andruw JOnes. Vernon Wells etc.

They would have been way better off extending Dye to something reasonable. That's all.

MrX
11-21-2006, 03:10 PM
1. Hell yes, I would give Dye Konerko's contract today.
When did Jim Hendry start posting here?

CHISOXFAN13
11-21-2006, 03:25 PM
I know who isn't going to ever hit that - Sweeney or Fields.

Yes, today's contracts make"no sense". Everyone says that every year. Yet, every year the salaries go up even more.

During the season, I think the Sox could have given Dye 3 years at $ 12-13 per year.

If he performs close to last year- he'll probably get 5 years at $ 16-18 per year.

That's more money per than Soriano got. Soriano is a freeking 40-40 guy. Dye is not going to get as much money as he did. Please.

Jjav829
11-21-2006, 04:05 PM
No Lip, I'm not a huge Dye fan. I just think that Kenny blew it here and it will hurt .

I am not at all impressed with what we have internally in the outfield - Anderson, Owens, Fields and Sweeney ? We won't win spit with that and none will approach Dye's level.

Sweeney might be real good in 3 or 4 years.

Therefore,if the SOX hava any hopes of contending in 2007 or beyond, they will have to pay HUGE HUGE bucks to get anyone good like Andruw JOnes. Vernon Wells etc.

They would have been way better off extending Dye to something reasonable. That's all.

Let me guess. You thought we had nothing internally to replace Magglio and thought we should have signed him. Yet, what do you know, Kenny found a player who has put up better numbers for less money.

Mullet Master
11-21-2006, 04:06 PM
Do you guys ever think that maybe the sox DID offer him something or have been talking with Dye about extending his contract. Are you in the office with Kenny Williams and Uncle Jerry listening to all of their phone calls? Hey maybe he wants to test the FA market, did you ever think of that.

So then if he's underpaid now at 5 million and you wanted to sign him during last season for 12 million, but his market value is gonna be at this 17-18 million that you say, wouldn't you be underpaying him again???

Chicken Dinner
11-21-2006, 04:24 PM
I sure am glad Randy's not in charge of the money. :tongue:

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 04:48 PM
Dye's going to be making $6.75 or $7 million next year, not $5.

He's not a $15 million dollar player, $12-13 million, tops.

He knows that, KW knows that...he will sign if he wants to stay at much less than the figures being thrown around, just like Konerko, Contreras and Garland did.

White Sox Randy
11-21-2006, 05:52 PM
Let me guess. You thought we had nothing internally to replace Magglio and thought we should have signed him. Yet, what do you know, Kenny found a player who has put up better numbers for less money.


No. You guessed wrong. I was all over this site saying that the best thing that happened to the Sox was Jagglio leaving.

And, I lauded the Dye pickup at the time but that won't happen again.

And, other than him, we have crap in our outfield.I would hate to lose him and you guys are nuts if you think that he'll be cheap to re-sign.

gr8mexico
11-21-2006, 06:18 PM
If the Sox decide to go with another option in right for next year. They should be alright. There's going to be to many great options next year. Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones, Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter

kittle42
11-21-2006, 07:01 PM
And, I lauded the Dye pickup at the time but that won't happen again.

Why not? I seem to recall this very team going through a pretty successful RF rotation in its more penny-pinching days of the early '90s. This is just a throwaway statement made with no support for the sole purpose of advancing an equally unsupported argument.

caulfield12
11-21-2006, 08:27 PM
No. You guessed wrong. I was all over this site saying that the best thing that happened to the Sox was Jagglio leaving.

And, I lauded the Dye pickup at the time but that won't happen again.

And, other than him, we have crap in our outfield.I would hate to lose him and you guys are nuts if you think that he'll be cheap to re-sign.


If $10-12 million is cheap....you keep saying $16-18 million and 4-6 years. That's crazy talk.

Now we don't trust KW to identify an undervalued player (an Ellis Burks or Jose Guillen "rehabbing" type, just like Dye)? I would rather sign a player like that for $10 million over two years (like we did with Dye) than screw ourselves over the long-term with a Soriano or A-Rodesque deal that doesn't protect us when the player starts to decline and nobody will take him off our hands for all the tea in China.

Burks, Sosa, Shawn Abner, Cory Snyder, Matt Merullo, Darrin Jackson, Mike Devereaux, Danny Tartabull, Dave Martinez...shall I go on? That's one 90+ win team, a division championship and leading at the break in the strike year. Not bad for misfits and castoffs. And for that matter, Lance Johnson was a Cardinals castoff...they never saw him as more than a 4th outfielder when they had McGee, Van Slyke, Coleman, Brunansky, etc.

DaveIsHere
11-21-2006, 08:32 PM
:hawk

"I love offseason Arguments DJ!!"

White Sox Randy
11-23-2006, 10:12 PM
Gary Mathews, 32, takes his 19 homer 79 rbi season and lifetime .263 b.a. to his new 5 year $ 50 million dollar contract.

So, that makes Dye a.....what ? Maybe $ 80-100 mil. if he were on the market ?

Kenny Williams messed up big time not signing him earlier. The Sox finished in 3RD PLACE last year and our outfield looks the same for next year - Dye is our only good outfielder.

2008 looks really bad with Dye gone. Well, maybe we can pay Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones or somebody $ 150 million to play for us.

I wonder what it would have taken to extend Dye about 6 months ago ?

caulfield12
11-23-2006, 10:24 PM
What would you be saying if they locked up Brian Anderson to a contract like Jhonny Peralta's?

Or extended Buehrle for 3 years at $14 million per season before 2006?

Nobody in baseball believed Dye was going to have this kind of year...

I'll ask you another question. Would you take all of your money out of the mutual funds and investments you have them in and put it in the fund that had the highest return for 2006?

You could also ask why KW didn't predict our starting pitching would falter and trade Garcia, Buehrle, Contreras and Garland after the 2005 season? Wouldn't they have been worth a lot more then than they are now (with the exception of Garland)?

Anyone can sit here with 20/20 hindsight and come up with something.

Should we have traded for Vazquez? Probably not...that kept us from having Chris Young as a replacement for Anderson and it also put McCarthy in an position he wasn't prepared to excel in...would we have made the playoffs if we never made that move, well, we'll never know.

But I doubt it.

And we still haven't seen the "final effects" of the Vazquez trade because it's going to allow us to get something great back in return for one of our starters, if we do make a trade.

White Sox Randy
11-23-2006, 10:34 PM
What would you be saying if they locked up Brian Anderson to a contract like Jhonny Peralta's?

Or extended Buehrle for 3 years at $14 million per season before 2006?

Nobody in baseball believed Dye was going to have this kind of year...

I'll ask you another question. Would you take all of your money out of the mutual funds and investments you have them in and put it in the fund that had the highest return for 2006?

You could also ask why KW didn't predict our starting pitching would falter and trade Garcia, Buehrle, Contreras and Garland after the 2005 season? Wouldn't they have been worth a lot more then than they are now (with the exception of Garland)?

Anyone can sit here with 20/20 hindsight and come up with something.

Should we have traded for Vazquez? Probably not...that kept us from having Chris Young as a replacement for Anderson and it also put McCarthy in an position he wasn't prepared to excel in...would we have made the playoffs if we never made that move, well, we'll never know.

But I doubt it.

And we still haven't seen the "final effects" of the Vazquez trade because it's going to allow us to get something great back in return for one of our starters, if we do make a trade.


WOW. I've never seen a post so far off topic. I thought we were talking about signing Dye to a contract. Oh well.

It's too much to expect the GM to forsee the contract status of a player ? I thought that was exactly the point of the job.

caulfield12
11-23-2006, 10:44 PM
Since you're simply not seeing this from a baseball standpoint, I thought I'd try another approach.

Once again, would you take 25% of your net worth and put it into the mutual fund with the highest return from 2005?

You're doing the exact same thing here.

You're putting too many eggs in one basket. The Thome and Konerko contracts are a risk as well, let's say Thome never returned to health (a possibility at age 36)...wouldn't you be criticizing KW for making that trade. I don't think is was a foregone conclusion that Thome was going to put up those numbers in 2006, or did you go to Vegas and make that bet too?

Let's say you do sign Dye for four years and he gets injured again or returns to his career norms, which are around 24 homers and 84 RBI's pers season...you would be unable to trade him, and it would keep you from making any moves to improve the team because too much money was tied up into a few players.

Didn't we already go through this with Magglio Ordonez???

Magglio wasn't worth $14.5 million per season, Carlos Lee wasn't worth $10+ million per season (TO THE WHITE SOX), but KW wouldn't have been able to acquire Hermanson, Dye, Pods, Vizcaino, El Duque, Blum, AJ and Iguchi without freeing up that money.

Don't you see, if the White Sox had a $125-150 million payroll like the Yankees, I might agree with you, extend Dye and there will always be the chance to go through more money to "cover" a mistake.

KW doesn't have that luxury, even at $100 million. If you want to resign Dye, that means you're going to have to sacrifice two starters and go with younger, more affordable pitching (Broadway, Haeger, trade).

So what two starters from our rotation do you want to ditch and why?

What if they "return to normal" and have great seasons next year?

Who will you be blaming then? Probably KW.

getonbckthr
11-24-2006, 02:12 AM
I might be wrong but with all the free agent OF talent available next season won't that actually keep the price down opposed to this year being really only Soriano and Lee and causing Matthews to take advantage of desperation?

A. Cavatica
11-24-2006, 09:09 AM
With Dye's value at an all-time high, which teams might have interest in him?

Trading one of our higher-priced position players might be the only way to make room for a pie-in-the-sky acquisition like Ichiro or Vernon Wells.

caulfield12
11-24-2006, 09:15 AM
Are you talking about trading Konerko or one of our pitchers?

Or moving Jermaine's bargain-basement $6.75 milion dollar contract?

A. Cavatica
11-24-2006, 01:46 PM
Moving a pitcher is certain. Moving Konerko or Dye is possible. I can think of a couple of teams who'd be in on Konerko, and I imagine the market for Dye would be a lot better, but I haven't thought about it.