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View Full Version : Ken Rosenthal on Justin Speier


DaleJRFan
11-16-2006, 02:12 AM
Looks like KW will be looking elsewhere for bullpen help, or will need to be creative with his payroll to accomodate a signing such as this.

Free-agent right-hander Justin Speier, perhaps the hottest reliever on the market, is expected to receive a contract that will exceed the three-year, $12 million deal that the Cubs awarded right-hander Bob Howry last off-season. The Red Sox are believed to be the front-runners, with the Indians and Orioles among the other teams interested.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6174052

:o: $12 million for a 33 year old non-closer?? Wow.

MUsoxfan
11-16-2006, 02:14 AM
Theo isn't smart

Steelrod
11-16-2006, 02:38 AM
Theo isn't smart
Thats putting it mildly. Just paid an extra 9 million just to negotiate with Japans premier pitcher. It would have been cheaper to pay 2.99 a minute, and like what the person says on the other side of the line, with no chance of getting screwed!

Craig Grebeck
11-16-2006, 08:03 AM
I'd rather fill our holes through our system or through trades. The FA money needs to go to a more worth cause.

INSox56
11-16-2006, 10:18 AM
I have a gut feeling that we're not going to sign any of the FA big name relievers we want. Mainly because it looks like Walker is going to the Os and I didn't think we had a chance at Speier anyway. Embree is about the only quality guy left out there...we'll see.

infohawk
11-16-2006, 10:25 AM
Outside of some of the free agents mentioned, I just don't know who's out there for significant bullpen help. I agree that it's not a wise idea to break the bank on a reliever, but I hope that KW has some other options that don't only involve low-risk, high reward types. Last year the Sox broke camp with bulllpen questions. Some were fixed, but the bullpen took on water elsewhere. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on a post-surgery Gagne, for example, but I don't want to predicate the bullpen on "we hope he works out" guys. I say this because I'm convinced a better bullpen would have won the division for the Sox last year. I'm more concerned about the 'pen than shortstop, leftfield or centerfield. Wouldn't it be great to be able to take a look at KW's infamous three-year board? At least then we'd likely know who the Sox think might be available in a trade.

SoxxoS
11-16-2006, 10:28 AM
Non-closer like BJ Ryan?

Not directly comparing the two, but Speier isnt looking for 5 years 55 million either.

Sometimes its worth it to overpay. How much is it worth not to see David Riske/Cliff Politte/McCarthy come in in a tight situation? A lot.

Bullpen was our downfall this year, and Speier is worth 4 million per, IMO.

Ol' No. 2
11-16-2006, 10:35 AM
Non-closer like BJ Ryan?

Not directly comparing the two, but Speier isnt looking for 5 years 55 million either.

Sometimes its worth it to overpay. How much is it worth not to see David Riske/Cliff Politte/McCarthy come in in a tight situation? A lot.

Bullpen was our downfall this year, and Speier is worth 4 million per, IMO.The Cubs just spent that much on a Tony Graffanino clone. I wouldn't call $4M overspending for a solid reliever.

chaerulez
11-16-2006, 10:36 AM
Yeah I don't see what the big deal is I would be willing to pay Speier 3 years 12 million, and drive that up to 15 million if that's what it takes. The bullpen fell apart towards the end, the guy has been good for a few years. It's hard to put up consistent seasons as a reliever, just because you don't pitch many innings and a few bad outings can ruin your stats. Look at the Cubs, they "overpaid" for Eyre and Howry last year but it made their bullpen go from horrible to at least decent.

spiffie
11-16-2006, 11:15 AM
How much is a good middle reliever worth:

April 5 - Boone Logan blows save, Neal Cotts gives up winning run.
April 8 - Cliff Politte gives up 2 run homer in 8th inning.
April 24 - Brandon McCarthy gives up winning run in 11th inning.
May 21 - Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte give up 5 runs in last 2 innings, Sox lose 7-4.
May 27 - Brandon Mccarthy gives up go-ahead run in 8th inning, Jeff Nelson gives up game winning home run.

We haven't even left May yet and already there's your margin of defeat between us and Detroit for the wild card berth. But yes, let's make sure to save that $2 million a year we'd avoid giving up by overspending on Speier. I enjoyed having all that free time this October.

oeo
11-16-2006, 11:15 AM
I have a gut feeling that we're not going to sign any of the FA big name relievers we want. Mainly because it looks like Walker is going to the Os and I didn't think we had a chance at Speier anyway. Embree is about the only quality guy left out there...we'll see.

If it's going to cost that much, screw it. You never know what you're going to get out of a reliever, he could be great or he could suck. I'd rather take a chance on Cotts than throw all that money to Jamie Walker.

oeo
11-16-2006, 11:19 AM
Yeah I don't see what the big deal is I would be willing to pay Speier 3 years 12 million, and drive that up to 15 million if that's what it takes. The bullpen fell apart towards the end, the guy has been good for a few years. It's hard to put up consistent seasons as a reliever, just because you don't pitch many innings and a few bad outings can ruin your stats. Look at the Cubs, they "overpaid" for Eyre and Howry last year but it made their bullpen go from horrible to at least decent.

Not at 33, when just a few years ago his ERA was up in the 4's. You're willing to give a relief pitcher 5 million a year? That's ridiculous, and I'm glad you'r not Kenny Williams. Relief pitchers should not be getting that much money. They're so inconsistent it's not even funny. You may get one good year out of Speier and then you're stuck with 2 years left at 5 mil...stupid.

DaleJRFan
11-16-2006, 11:20 AM
The Cubs just spent that much on a Tony Graffanino clone. I wouldn't call $4M overspending for a solid reliever.

I agree. Justin Speier is reeeeally good. $4 million may not be overspending for a guy who gave up the lead only 3 times in 60+ appearances. I was looking at his game logs and other than the 3 appearances in which he blew the lead, all the rest of his ER were in games that were blowouts. When its on the line, he gets outs. That's worth $4 million. But on the other side of the argument, he's 33, has gone on the DL at least once in the last two seasons...

The problem is, there isn't going to be any other relievers even close to Speier's quality available, in trade or otherwise. Sometimes, you have to overpay for quality. And overpaying for Speier has other benefits as well. He won't go to the Tigers, Twins, Indians, Red Sox, Orioles or Yankees.

SABRSox
11-16-2006, 11:57 AM
Relief pitching is a crapshoot. I don't want to be spending big dollars on a guy unless it's a sure thing. If we're gonna spend that much money, let's go after Gagne and pray he doesn't get hurt. At least he can bring it.

chaerulez
11-16-2006, 12:26 PM
Not at 33, when just a few years ago his ERA was up in the 4's. You're willing to give a relief pitcher 5 million a year? That's ridiculous, and I'm glad you'r not Kenny Williams. Relief pitchers should not be getting that much money. They're so inconsistent it's not even funny. You may get one good year out of Speier and then you're stuck with 2 years left at 5 mil...stupid.

I'd like to know your solution to fix the bullpen then. Oh wait, maybe Boone Logan will all of a sudden become lights out. Not saying he couldn't, but Speier is more of a sure thing than some unproven minor leaguer (not talking about Logan specifically, but if we left it up to some kind of open position battle in spring training).

spiffie
11-16-2006, 12:38 PM
I'd like to know your solution to fix the bullpen then. Oh wait, maybe Boone Logan will all of a sudden become lights out. Not saying he couldn't, but Speier is more of a sure thing than some unproven minor leaguer (not talking about Logan specifically, but if we left it up to some kind of open position battle in spring training).
See, the solution is to let all of our minor leaguers and NRI's battle it out in spring training. Look how well that worked last year! Sure we missed the playoffs, but damn it we didn't overpay anyone, and that's what counts.

Sometimes I think Sox fans are as interested in winning the Fiscal Restraint Title as Cubs fans are in their Attendance Title.

White Sox Randy
11-16-2006, 12:58 PM
Cheaping off on the bullpen last year was the difference between a World Championship repeat and third place (no playoffs).

Let's hope the Sox spend some money on the bullpen this year so we can get back to the playoffs.

Ol' No. 2
11-16-2006, 01:18 PM
Cheaping off on the bullpen last year was the difference between a World Championship repeat and third place (no playoffs).

Let's hope the Sox spend some money on the bullpen this year so we can get back to the playoffs.I'd hardly say the problem with last year's bullpen was due to "cheaping off". They had one of the best bullpens in the league in 2005 and brought just about everybody back. Or maybe they should have replaced Cotts and Politte with someone more expensive? Hindsight is 20/20.

White Sox Randy
11-16-2006, 01:40 PM
I'd hardly say the problem with last year's bullpen was due to "cheaping off". They had one of the best bullpens in the league in 2005 and brought just about everybody back. Or maybe they should have replaced Cotts and Politte with someone more expensive? Hindsight is 20/20.


They brought everyone back ? Except Marte, Vizcaino, El Duque and Hermanson.

Cheaping off is EXACTLY what they did last year when they had held bullpen tryouts with every bozo that ever spit tobacco.

And, it's not hindsight. I said this over and over again in Feb, March, April, May etc.

Craig Grebeck
11-16-2006, 02:02 PM
They brought everyone back ? Except Marte, Vizcaino, El Duque and Hermanson.

Cheaping off is EXACTLY what they did last year when they had held bullpen tryouts with every bozo that ever spit tobacco.

And, it's not hindsight. I said this over and over again in Feb, March, April, May etc.
Randy, they brought back everyone who was worth a damn. Hermanson was hurt, El Duque was a starter to begin with, and both Damaso and Luis were part of pretty good trades. We brought back our three most solid pieces (Jenks, Cotts, Politte) and added Thornton.

Ol' No. 2
11-16-2006, 02:03 PM
Randy, they brought back everyone who was worth a damn. Hermanson was hurt, El Duque was a starter to begin with, and both Damaso and Luis were part of pretty good trades. We brought back our three most solid pieces (Jenks, Cotts, Politte) and added Thornton.And traded Hernandez ($4M) to get Vazquez ($10M). Some cheaping out.:rolleyes:

DaleJRFan
11-16-2006, 02:10 PM
And traded Hernandez ($4M) to get Vazquez ($10M). Some cheaping out.:rolleyes:

Signing Paul Konerko to a 5 year, 60 million dollar contract.

Signing Jose Contreras and Jon Garland both to 3 year, 30 million dollar contracts.

Trading Aaron Rowand for Jim Thome and taking on an additional 6-8 million in annual salary.

yea, KW is on the cheap... :rolleyes:

FedEx227
11-16-2006, 03:10 PM
Relief pitching is a crapshoot. I don't want to be spending big dollars on a guy unless it's a sure thing. If we're gonna spend that much money, let's go after Gagne and pray he doesn't get hurt. At least he can bring it.

Exactly. Relief pitching is impossible to predict. Would anybody have said Derrick Turnbow would be a barely long-relief pitcher by the end of the year? No way, he was unhittable in 2005 and the beginning of 2006, by the end he was nothing.

It's impossible to predict, the Twins were lucky enough to have a dependable bullpen for all those years but not many other teams in the league have been able to year-in and year-out have a solid bullpen. Look no further then the hometown example... Cliff and Cotts, unhittable one year, trash the next.

I would much rather take fliers on Gagne, the aforementioned Turnbow, and a few other guys but I would never spend serious amounts of money on relief pitchers.

White Sox Randy
11-16-2006, 03:45 PM
As I said a cheap, inexperienced ****ty bullpen is what we started the season with.

KW well knew that Hermie was done. So, one proven veteran gone.

He traded Marte for no pitching - one more experienced veteran gone.

He traded Hernandez and got no relief back - one more proven veteran gone.

He was left with Jenks and his half season of experience , Cotts with one good season, Politte with one good season and McCarthy with little experience and none as a reliever - BUT THEY ALL CAME VERY CHEAP !

Then, did he SPEND for a couple of solid veterans ? No, he held tryouts for a bunch of cheap castoffs to round out this World Championship bullpen.

He adds Logan with no experience even close to the big leagues and Thornton, which turned out well.

THIS WHOLE BULLPEN DIDN'T COST AS MUCH AS ANY ONE OF OUR STARTING PITCHERS !

So, now what are Ozzie and KW saying about last year ? They didn't do a good job of building the bullpen ! They have both publicly admitted that.

So, laugh at the flubs for giving contracts to Eyre and Howry but we would have had a different season if we had spent some dough on the bullpen.

Maybe this year.

oeo
11-16-2006, 03:52 PM
As I said a cheap, inexperienced ****ty bullpen is what we started the season with.

KW well knew that Hermie was done. So, one proven veteran gone.

He traded Marte for no pitching - one more experienced veteran gone.

He traded Hernandez and got no relief back - one more proven veteran gone.

He was left with Jenks and his half season of experience , Cotts with one good season, Politte with one good season and McCarthy with little experience and none as a reliever - BUT THEY ALL CAME VERY CHEAP !

Then, did he SPEND for a couple of solid veterans ? No, he held tryouts for a bunch of cheap castoffs to round out this World Championship bullpen.

He adds Logan with no experience even close to the big leagues and Thornton, which turned out well.

THIS WHOLE BULLPEN DIDN'T COST AS MUCH AS ANY ONE OF OUR STARTING PITCHERS !

So, now what are Ozzie and KW saying about last year ? They didn't do a good job of building the bullpen ! They have both publicly admitted that.

So, laugh at the flubs for giving contracts to Eyre and Howry but we would have had a different season if we had spent some dough on the bullpen.

Maybe this year.

Howry and Eyre do not match their seasons in the AL Central. I'm still laughing at them, because spending a ****load of money on relievers is stupid. You never know what you're going to get, so why spend all this money for a guy that is supposed to be good, when you probably have just as good a chance of having another 2005 Cliff Politte right under your nose. I doubt Detroit's bullpen is as good as it was last year, and I also doubt Minny's bullpen (although they will probably call some guy up that does just as well). You know why? Because a bunch of career years = a great bullpen. The next year, they don't look so hot, so you try to make changes, and you either get lucky or you don't.

DaleJRFan
11-16-2006, 03:55 PM
As I said a cheap, inexperienced ****ty bullpen is what we started the season with.

KW well knew that Hermie was done. So, one proven veteran gone.

He traded Marte for no pitching - one more experienced veteran gone.

He traded Hernandez and got no relief back - one more proven veteran gone.

He was left with Jenks and his half season of experience , Cotts with one good season, Politte with one good season and McCarthy with little experience and none as a reliever - BUT THEY ALL CAME VERY CHEAP !

Then, did he SPEND for a couple of solid veterans ? No, he held tryouts for a bunch of cheap castoffs to round out this World Championship bullpen.

He adds Logan with no experience even close to the big leagues and Thornton, which turned out well.

THIS WHOLE BULLPEN DIDN'T COST AS MUCH AS ANY ONE OF OUR STARTING PITCHERS !

So, now what are Ozzie and KW saying about last year ? They didn't do a good job of building the bullpen ! They have both publicly admitted that.

So, laugh at the flubs for giving contracts to Eyre and Howry but we would have had a different season if we had spent some dough on the bullpen.

Maybe this year.


When you have a 50 million dollar starting rotation with 5 aces (as they were projected in the offseason), you don't need 6 closers.

Had Buehrle not thrown BP all season, had Garcia not lost 4 mph, had Vazquez made it out of the 5th inning, had Garland not posted a 7.00 era in the first two months, had Contreras put together a full season, the weakness that was a "cheap" bullpen wouldn't have been exposed and exploited as it was.

spiffie
11-16-2006, 04:13 PM
When you have a 50 million dollar starting rotation with 5 aces (as they were projected in the offseason), you don't need 6 closers.

Had Buehrle not thrown BP all season, had Garcia not lost 4 mph, had Vazquez made it out of the 5th inning, had Garland not posted a 7.00 era in the first two months, had Contreras put together a full season, the weakness that was a "cheap" bullpen wouldn't have been exposed and exploited as it was.
No, you don't need six closers, but you need six competent pitchers. We decided to gamble that McCarthy would adjust well to a bullpen role. We gambled that Boone Logan, a SINGLE-A pitcher would be able to pitch in the most competitive division in baseball for a defending World Champion. We gambled that no one would regress from their previous year. We had no insurance in case any of these bullpen guys, who as we've been told are so spectacularly unreliable, decided to crap the bed, as many people said they might do from the beginning (I'm thinking Logan especially here). Unless we were expecting the starters to reprise the 2005 ALCS on a weekly basis we needed to have a solid top to bottom bullpen, and they did not prepare such a thing.

Corlose 15
11-16-2006, 06:05 PM
I don't know that I trust Speier at that price, his career ERA is just over 4.02. Wasn't Riske's around 3.7 or something along those lines? Also with trading Cotts shouldn't the Sox be looking at some lefthanders?

Another thing we're not taking into account is the extra pitcher the Sox have its very well possible that they could trade Vazquez or Garcia and get some relief pitching back.

munchman33
11-16-2006, 06:17 PM
They brought everyone back ? Except Marte, Vizcaino, El Duque and Hermanson.

Cheaping off is EXACTLY what they did last year when they had held bullpen tryouts with every bozo that ever spit tobacco.

And, it's not hindsight. I said this over and over again in Feb, March, April, May etc.

If I remember right, that "cheaping off" by having the LOOGY competition led to a trade for Thornton. Remind me again how that turned out?

The bullpen sucked because Hermanson couldn't come back and Cotts and Pollite went from being the two best setup men in the league to the two worst setup men in the league. Period. There's nothing KW could have done short of being psychic and trading them away before the season began.