PDA

View Full Version : Neal Cotts


doctorlecter
10-04-2006, 10:53 PM
Neal had some pretty interesting split stats this year. Do you realize that his ERA on the road this year was 2.77 with a .216 BAA? Pre all-star break, his ERA was 2.95 with a .216 BAA. While those numbers are worse than his 2005 numbers, those are some pretty damn good numbers. We would not be able to duplicate those numbers on the free agent market without dropping some big bucks. A name that comes up frequently to help shore up the pen is Scott Shields, who had an ERA of 2.87 with a .217 BAA, at a cost of $2.1 mil. Neal's numbers were significantly worse than 2005, yet his stats (when looked at in splits) are as good as some "big name" relievers.
Okay, now that you've met Dr. Jekyll, I'll introduce you to Mr. Hyde:

Home

ERA: 7.39 BAA: .350


After break


ERA: 9.87 BAA: .420

Those are not typos. Every guy that stepped in the box in the second half hit better than Ted ****ing Williams! This reeks of personal issues. His bio says that he's single. Did a new girlfriend move in around the break? We know that he can pitch in the park, he had a 2.61/.202 in 2005 here. Something has got to be going on with Neal personally. His problems were concentrated to second half, home appearances. Considering that he's making $400k next year, and his ridiculously high upside (see 2005), there is no way KW "dumps" him this offseason. Maybe Coop will get him to alter his routine during home games. Something that stupid and small could end up netting us a great reliever for 2007.

BA: The Hitman
10-04-2006, 10:56 PM
there is no way KW "dumps" him this offseason. Maybe Coop will get him to alter his routine during home games. Something that stupid and small could end up netting us a great reliever for 2007.
[/quote]


I definitely agree. As painful as it was to watch Cotts this year, we gotta hope that this year was a fluke and he will rebound back to 2005 form. I'd say we give him a chance kinda like we did for cliff pollite this year. Give him a couple of months to prove he can get guys out again and if not, its see ya later.

QCIASOXFAN
10-05-2006, 12:36 AM
Cotts stinks, I am going to pray at night that I don't have to watch him march out to the mound next year.

Grzegorz
10-05-2006, 04:53 AM
I'd give Cotts every opportunity in the off season and spring training to prove that 2006 was an abberation. There is no way I'd just give him up without giving him the opportunity to work himself back into the bullpen.

Remember every arm discarded has to be replaced. The question is what do we bargain with to replace that arm? The Chicago White Sox resources are not unlimited...

Wsoxmike59
10-05-2006, 06:04 AM
I agree 100% with the sentiment of this thread. Bring Neal Cotts back in 2007. He deserves a 2nd chance, it would tear me up if he had another season like 2005 wearing somebody elses uniform.

Every now and then I get a strong feeling when it's a mistake to let a particular pitcher go (e.g. Dennis Lamp, Pete Vuckovich, LaMaar Hoyt, Doug Drabek, Rich Gossage)

I got the same feeling about Neal Cotts. I think he's going to bounce back to his regular form.

Domeshot17
10-05-2006, 06:47 AM
Its amazing how some people are on this board. You have a young cheap, left handed reliever who 2 years ago won the award for leagues best middle reliever/set up man. He was untouchable. He has a bad half of a season of baseball, AND LETS DUMP HIM.

But Buehlre has a bad half season and "Well man forget it who cares"

If you trade cotts you won't get anything back. If you keep him he could very well flourish. He needs to get his head clear. He also needs a defined role. Ozzie marches him out there one night as a mop up, 2 days later in the 8th with a lead, the next he starts the 9th inning in a save situation, I blame a ton of the bullpen failures on Ozzie's over management (or micro management for some).

Thank God Kenny is the GM and not some people. EVERYONE SLUMPS. Buehlre-Freddy-Contreras-Garland-Crede-Konerko. I mean hell a young Paul Konerko couldnt find the mendoza line years ago, good thing we did not just DUMP him for bad year. Its growing pains. Part of the persona that was the great cotts was his ability to keep hitters off balance with his delivery. His 91 looked like 95 because he hid the ball. A simple off season tweak could get him back to that.

You put pressure on Cotts to get better, and he FOR SURE needs to get mentally tougher, but you don't dump him for a bag of balls, because next year when he posts a sub 3 era we look like idiots for trading him.

oeo
10-05-2006, 09:01 AM
I definitely agree. As painful as it was to watch Cotts this year, we gotta hope that this year was a fluke and he will rebound back to 2005 form. I'd say we give him a chance kinda like we did for cliff pollite this year. Give him a couple of months to prove he can get guys out again and if not, its see ya later.

That's really all you can do. Realistically, what are you going to get for Cotts right now, other than a bucket of balls? You don't just 'dump' a young arm like his either...somebody would pick him up and benefit, while we look stupid for doing so. We just have to hope that he didn't have enough fuel in the tank, and he'll be a good reliever again next year.

Kenny still believes that he will rebound, so he's not going anywhere.

caulfield12
10-05-2006, 09:06 AM
That's really all you can do. Realistically, what are you going to get for Cotts right now, other than a bucket of balls? I think we just have to hope that he didn't have enough fuel in the tank, and he'll be a good reliever again next year.

Kenny still believes that he will rebound, so he's not going anywhere.

I listened to fenway's Theo Epstein conversation and one of the points that he really seemed to dwell upon was how the entire Boston staff seemed to give up on Meredith (the pitcher they traded to the Padres who had the best reliever ERA in baseball) and they dumped him after only one season to their lasting regret. Epstein said they (Boston major and minor league staffs) tried everything possible to build his confidence and nothing seem to take...of course, Meredith and Cotts were in slightly different situations. Epstein acknowledged he was rushed to the majors before he was ready, just like Hansen this season. Cotts was a more experienced pitcher and had all of 2004 in the big leagues. But I think the lesson learned is still applicable. Bottom line, you can't always make a judgement about a young pitcher based solely on one season, a half season, home or road performance, etc.

jenn2080
10-05-2006, 09:20 AM
That's really all you can do. Realistically, what are you going to get for Cotts right now, other than a bucket of balls? You don't just 'dump' a young arm like his either...somebody would pick him up and benefit, while we look stupid for doing so. We just have to hope that he didn't have enough fuel in the tank, and he'll be a good reliever again next year.

Kenny still believes that he will rebound, so he's not going anywhere.

I do not think they will just get rid of Neal for one ****ty season. Like you said someone will end up getting him and will seriously benifit from it. I think that if he continues on to the All Star break next year and still pitching ****ty then we may have a bit of a problem.

Gregory Pratt
10-05-2006, 09:59 AM
Neal had some pretty interesting split stats this year. Do you realize that his ERA on the road this year was 2.77 with a .216 BAA? Pre all-star break, his ERA was 2.95 with a .216 BAA. While those numbers are worse than his 2005 numbers, those are some pretty damn good numbers. We would not be able to duplicate those numbers on the free agent market without dropping some big bucks. A name that comes up frequently to help shore up the pen is Scott Shields, who had an ERA of 2.87 with a .217 BAA, at a cost of $2.1 mil. Neal's numbers were significantly worse than 2005, yet his stats (when looked at in splits) are as good as some "big name" relievers.
Okay, now that you've met Dr. Jekyll, I'll introduce you to Mr. Hyde:

Home

ERA: 7.39 BAA: .350


After break


ERA: 9.87 BAA: .420

Those are not typos. Every guy that stepped in the box in the second half hit better than Ted ****ing Williams! This reeks of personal issues. His bio says that he's single. Did a new girlfriend move in around the break? We know that he can pitch in the park, he had a 2.61/.202 in 2005 here. Something has got to be going on with Neal personally. His problems were concentrated to second half, home appearances. Considering that he's making $400k next year, and his ridiculously high upside (see 2005), there is no way KW "dumps" him this offseason. Maybe Coop will get him to alter his routine during home games. Something that stupid and small could end up netting us a great reliever for 2007.


Well, I've heard rumors -- just rumors, mind you, I'm not passing this off as FACT or to SMEAR someone -- that Jenks is partying a little too hard (as everyone knows, or should know, Jenks has a history of drug/alcohol problems) and that Cotts has been partying a lot with him. Perhaps there're issues with alcohol/drugs. Wouldn't be the first time a baseball player ruined himself.

I'd give Cotts every opportunity in the off season and spring training to prove that 2006 was an abberation.

I'm of the opinion that 2005 was the aberration, as he posted numbers far and away better than anything he's done before or since.

I'd trade him for something good. Package him, even. He's a Lefty who had a damn good year; there's a ton of value in him to other teams.

caulfield12
10-05-2006, 10:07 AM
Well, I've heard rumors -- just rumors, mind you, I'm not passing this off as FACT or to SMEAR someone -- that Jenks is partying a little too hard (as everyone knows, or should know, Jenks has a history of drug/alcohol problems) and that Cotts has been partying a lot with him. Perhaps there're issues with alcohol/drugs. Wouldn't be the first time a baseball player ruined himself.



I'm of the opinion that 2005 was the aberration, as he posted numbers far and away better than anything he's done before or since.

I'd trade him for something good. Package him, even. He's a Lefty who had a damn good year; there's a ton of value in him to other teams.

If you know about it, don't you think the rest of the baseball world would know EVEN more? That's their jobs...to find out that kind of stuff. Believe me, those scouts soak up tons of information and theories and "gossip." Cotts is not going to get us back anything of value. At best, we trade him for another pitcher coming off a similar slump and hope the player we acquire does better in a new environment (like Thornton). But we can't "win" every trade, and, sooner or later, other GM's will get wary of our Borchards and Bajenarus.

alohafri
10-05-2006, 10:42 AM
Cotts stinks, I am going to pray at night that I don't have to watch him march out to the mound next year.

I still say I won't be surprised if Neal went under the knife this offseason.

Lip Man 1
10-05-2006, 12:12 PM
I don't think that Cotts will be released but it's not beyond the realm of possibility he could be included as part of a deal.

I think the chances are he goes to camp in the spring as the #3 left hander (behind Thornton and a Williams trade acquisition) meaning the pressure will be on him to perform. If he does he has a shot to make the opening day roster, if not he goes to Charlotte.

Lip

Gregory Pratt
10-05-2006, 12:55 PM
If you know about it, don't you think the rest of the baseball world would know EVEN more? That's their jobs...to find out that kind of stuff. Believe me, those scouts soak up tons of information and theories and "gossip." Cotts is not going to get us back anything of value. At best, we trade him for another pitcher coming off a similar slump and hope the player we acquire does better in a new environment (like Thornton). But we can't "win" every trade, and, sooner or later, other GM's will get wary of our Borchards and Bajenarus.

I'm sure the baseball world is aware of the fact that players drink alcohol and that some do drugs. That isn't exactly a reason not to give someone a job unless there's something else involved much worse. Like Jenks, he's a good example. From what I read in an ESPN profile, he had a 0 GPA in HS, and didn't know how to read, came from the Aryan Nation-part of Idaho (though he says he isn't a racist, and I buy that), had a surly reputation AND the drugs/alcohol.

That's why nobody claimed him off the Waivers, before Kenny, and that's why only two teams were interested in him (the Angels and someone else) despise his High Heat. (Well, as far as waivers, his past elbow injury had to do with it, too -- it all comes together.)

Cotts, on the other hand, has simply had a bad year, publicly, and while I said I wondered if it might be because of substances (perhaps drinking too much in Chicago?) that doesn't really, you know, mean anything to scouts. Otherwise Johnny Damon wouldn't have a job. (I'm teasing my favorite Centerfielder.)

You get what I'm saying? Drugs/alcohol don't matter to scouts unless it's REAL bad and coupled with other things. Cotts is, on the surface, just having a bad year. He's a Lefty who had one year of GREAT pitching: we could get a ton of value for him, or by using him as a sweetener in a bigger deal. Easy. He's got plenty of value.

spiffie
10-05-2006, 01:15 PM
Its amazing how some people are on this board. You have a young mid-priced right handed reliever who 2 years ago won the Rolaids Relief Man Award. He was untouchable. He has a bad half of a season of baseball, AND LETS DUMP HIM.

If you trade Koch you won't get anything back. If you keep him he could very well flourish. He needs to get his head clear. He also needs a defined role. Jerry marcheed him out there one night as a mop up, 2 days later in the 8th with a lead, the next he starts the 9th inning in a save situation, I blame a ton of the bullpen failures on Jerry''s tinkering.

You put pressure on Koch to get better, and he FOR SURE needs to get mentally tougher, but you don't dump him for a bag of balls, because next year when he posts a sub 3 era we look like idiots for trading him.
With just a couple of tweaks as seen above this post could have been made by a very optimistic Sox fan going into the 2004 season about a much more acclaimed much more proven reliever who had suddenly lost it. None of us know what is going to happen to Neal, but the people who seem so sure last year was a fluke seem to be basing this on hope and affection (and post-2005 haze) than results. Neal has had three seasons with over 55 appearances each. His ERA's in those seasons:
2004 - 5.65
2005 - 1.94
2006 - 5.17

Now, if Neal was with any other team in baseball, and I suggested getting him, everyone would talk about how 2005 was a fluke and a career year. But because he had his miracle season in 2005 for us, suddenly that becomes the whole of his abilities.

thomas35forever
10-05-2006, 07:15 PM
This is just speculation, but I'm guessing he might be traded during spring training.

Domeshot17
10-05-2006, 08:40 PM
Spiffie-

I guess my thinking of cotts is, he is too young to dump. I dont put a TON of thought into 2004, because a lot of pitchers struggle their rookie year/first full season.

Now if you got a good deal for Cotts, you have to consider it. But I am saying do not dump him.

I don't think he is a 5 era pitcher, and I don't think hes a sub 2 era pitcher. I think in the end if he ever gets his head on right (and with Jenks im curious, because the sox had praised him getting sober) he will settle in as a reliever high 2 low 3 era.

doctorlecter
10-05-2006, 08:49 PM
With just a couple of tweaks as seen above this post could have been made by a very optimistic Sox fan going into the 2004 season about a much more acclaimed much more proven reliever who had suddenly lost it. None of us know what is going to happen to Neal, but the people who seem so sure last year was a fluke seem to be basing this on hope and affection (and post-2005 haze) than results. Neal has had three seasons with over 55 appearances each. His ERA's in those seasons:
2004 - 5.65
2005 - 1.94
2006 - 5.17

Now, if Neal was with any other team in baseball, and I suggested getting him, everyone would talk about how 2005 was a fluke and a career year. But because he had his miracle season in 2005 for us, suddenly that becomes the whole of his abilities.
My point of this thread was to illustrate the glaring differences between his home/road numbers and his pre/post ASG numbers. His 2006 numbers are a tale of two seasons (and places).

caulfield12
10-05-2006, 10:08 PM
My point of this thread was to illustrate the glaring differences between his home/road numbers and his pre/post ASG numbers. His 2006 numbers are a tale of two seasons (and places).

Same thing with 2004. Very good the first couple of months, he gave up some huge game-losing, walkoff homers on his secondary pitches and he was never the same again...the key seems to be for him to get off to a good start and set the pattern or rhythm for the entire season. It happened last year with Hermanson, Cotts, Politte and finally Jenks in the end.

23Ventura
10-05-2006, 11:11 PM
I think Cotts will get a chance to prove himself next year, but if he doesn't step up, he'll be gone.

CLR01
10-05-2006, 11:11 PM
This is just speculation, but I'm guessing he might be traded during spring training.


The Cottsinator is not going anywhere. Soon enough you will all be trying to find a spot on the train.


Cotts Rocks!!!!!!!

Soxfanspcu11
10-06-2006, 01:23 AM
You guys are going to think that I am crazy for saying this, but I remember watching the Sox play the flubs in that spring training game in March that ended in a tie.

Cotts came in the game to close it down, I think the Sox were up by 2 or something at that point. Based on the 2005 Cotts and the flubs lineup, I thought that for sure the game was in the bag.

Well, Cotts blew the game, gave up like 3 straight hits. I remember thinking to myself, "What the ****???":?: It just didn't seem like him at all.

I know that his first half numbers were decent, but I believe that he really started falling off in May. At least, turning into a different Neal Cotts. Certainly not the one we all fell in love with in 2005.

I just get the felling that something happened to him during the offseason. Between November 2005 and March 2006, I think that something in his personal life just exploded and he has been dealing with it all year.

As Coop has said, his mechanics are the same, he is just having trouble hitting his spots. I remember Coop saying that Cotts hasn't changed a thing from last year. Again, this makes me think that something in his personal life is bothering him.

It has been a complete trainwreck though since May 21st, 2006 against the flubs. After he blew that game, he has just been going down in flames. He really seems like the type of guy who has like ZERO confidence. If everything is going good for him and he gets some good breaks, he steps up and performs. However, if things start slipping for him and he gets some bad breaks, he ****s his pants and loses his mind.

Who knows what his deal is. Hopefully he can get his mind right and return to the 2005 Neal Cotts in time for 2007. If not, well then I guess he is going to have to go somewhere else to drink his whiskey.

PeoriaSoxFan
10-06-2006, 06:44 AM
I have beaten this to death all year, but Cotts simply was horrible this season. Almost literally, he allowed runners to score almost every game he pitched in the second half. What is very misleading about his ERA is the fact that it would actually be much worse if it somehow factored in inherited runners who scored while he was on the mound. Can he turn it around? Maybe, but I don't want to see Ozzie give him the long rope he gave Politte this season.

October26
10-07-2006, 06:02 PM
The Cottsinator is not going anywhere. Soon enough you will all be trying to find a spot on the train.


Cotts Rocks!!!!!!!


Really? As cute as your sig is (reminds me of Thomas the Engine which my son loves), I'm not on the Neal Cotts love train just yet. But, I'm willing to give Neal the opportunity to impress me in Spring Training 2007.

Chips
10-07-2006, 06:04 PM
Really? As cute as your sig is (reminds me of Thomas the Engine which my son loves), I'm not on the Neal Cotts love train just yet. But, I'm willing to give Neal the opportunity to impress me in Spring Training 2007.

Sadly, I think he will get that opportunity.

Tragg
10-07-2006, 06:30 PM
I would prefer not to trade him at the absolute bottom of his value.

soxinem1
10-08-2006, 07:29 PM
I agree 100% with the sentiment of this thread. Bring Neal Cotts back in 2007. He deserves a 2nd chance, it would tear me up if he had another season like 2005 wearing somebody elses uniform.

Every now and then I get a strong feeling when it's a mistake to let a particular pitcher go (e.g. Dennis Lamp, Pete Vuckovich, LaMaar Hoyt, Doug Drabek, Rich Gossage)

I got the same feeling about Neal Cotts. I think he's going to bounce back to his regular form.

I agree he shouldn't be dumped, but his 'regular form' to date is not 2005, it is more like 2003, 2004 and 2006 rolled together

White Sox Randy
10-09-2006, 01:55 PM
The Sox would be nuts to give up on Cotts now.

The guy works hard and is in great physical shape, is a great teammate and has the right attitude - he had one bad half season. AND HE'S CHEAP.

At the worst, the Sox could send him to Charlotte until he works things out but he should be solid once again.

Ol' No. 2
10-09-2006, 02:03 PM
My point of this thread was to illustrate the glaring differences between his home/road numbers and his pre/post ASG numbers. His 2006 numbers are a tale of two seasons (and places).Splits for relievers are always prone to wild swings simply because of the small number of innings involved. One or two bad outings can dramatically inflate the numbers, while a perfect inning will have hardly any effect.

southside rocks
10-09-2006, 02:27 PM
Well, I may be buying a ticket for that train ride ... I think it could turn out to be a really simple mechanical adjustment that Neal makes that returns him to his 2005 and early 2006 form. He started having problems at around the ASB, I think, and when I look it up I see that his ERA was 2.95 before the ASB and 9.87 after the ASB.

That's a really dramatic change. That doesn't just happen to a pitcher for no reason, and I think the reason is either an injury -- maybe just something that he was "favoring", not even a significant hurt -- or a change in his delivery.

Whatever it was, I think it can be fixed, and I don't think the Sox are dumb enough to scrap this kid just because he had a sucky second half of the season.

"Cottsinator", huh? Well ... :cool:

Soxfanspcu11
10-09-2006, 04:09 PM
Well, I may be buying a ticket for that train ride ...


:o:

Just make sure that you bring a survival kit!

But hey, the Neal Cotts train is probably a bit safer than Amtrack, but then again, that's not saying much. :tongue: