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View Full Version : Do you start Santana on Sunday?


SouthSoxFan
09-28-2006, 05:16 PM
If the Twins manage to get a game up on the Tigers going into Sunday, they would be in a situation where a win on Sunday clinches the Division. Note that a tie goes to Detroit since they won the head-to-head. Do you send Santana out there against the Sox for the almost certain victory? Or do you save him for the first game of the playoffs?

The difference between winning the divison and the wild card looks like it will be hosting the A's or making a trip to the Bronx. If I'm Gardenhire, I want the division title. The Yanks own 'em. The Twins had Santana go in game 1 against the Yanks in 2003; he won and they lost the next 3 games. Repeat in 2004. The Twins are dominant at home, no matter who is pitching. I'd much rather have 3 in the dome with the A's, with Santana in Game 3 in Oakland. Plus, the bonus is if they get out of the first round, they have Santana ready for Game 1 of the LCS (and 4 and 7 if they want to push it).

oeo
09-28-2006, 05:19 PM
If the Twins manage to get a game up on the Tigers going into Sunday, they would be in a situation where a win on Sunday clinches the Division. Note that a tie goes to Detroit since they won the head-to-head. Do you send Santana out there against the Sox for the almost certain victory? Or do you save him for the first game of the playoffs?

The difference between winning the divison and the wild card looks like it will be hosting the A's or making a trip to the Bronx. If I'm Gardenhire, I want the division title. The Yanks own 'em. The Twins had Santana go in game 1 against the Yanks in 2003; he won and they lost the next 3 games. Repeat in 2004. The Twins are dominant at home, no matter who is pitching. I'd much rather have 3 in the dome with the A's, with Santana in Game 3 in Oakland. Plus, the bonus is if they get out of the first round, they have Santana ready for Game 1 of the LCS (and 4 and 7 if they want to push it).

You save him for the playoffs. Regardless of who you play, you want Santana to be able to pitch in 2 out of those 5 games (if it goes that far). Santana is probably the best pitcher in baseball, he can shut down the Yankees...that's 2 out of 3 games right there. If they let him pitch on Sunday, he'd only be able to pitch in one of those games. If it comes down to a game 5, do you want Johan Santana or Carlos Silva (or whatever other BS they throw out there, Bonser, Garza, etc.). That rotation is not built for the playoffs (I can't even believe that it has held up this long), which is exactly why they won't make it very far. If they pitch Santana, they prove to me once again that they're just all about getting to the playoffs, not winning in them.

SouthSoxFan
09-28-2006, 05:24 PM
You save him for the playoffs. Regardless of who you play, you want Santana to be able to pitch in 2 out of those 5 games (if it goes that far). Santana is probably the best pitcher in baseball, he can shut down the Yankees...that's 2 out of 3 games right there. If they let him pitch on Sunday, he'd only be able to pitch in one of those games. If it comes down to a game 5, do you want Johan Santana or Carlos Silva (or whatever other BS they throw out there, Bonser, Garza, etc.). If they pitch Santana, they prove to me once again that they're just all about getting to the playoffs, not winning in them.

Playing for a game 5 isn't necessarily a winning strategy either. I think opponent and home field is a bigger deal here. And regarding playing to win, are you playing to win the ALDS, or win the American League? If Santana pitches in Games 1 and 5 of the ALDS, and they win that game 5, he may only see one game in the LCS.

oeo
09-28-2006, 05:31 PM
Playing for a game 5 isn't necessarily a winning strategy either. I think opponent and home field is a bigger deal here. And regarding playing to win, are you playing to win the ALDS, or win the American League? If Santana pitches in Games 1 and 5 of the ALDS, and they win that game 5, he may only see one game in the LCS.

The ALCS is 7 games, he can still pitch twice (if it goes that long).

I honestly don't think they can win a 5-game series without Santana pitching twice. When you have to rely on young pitchers like Bonser and Garza, that's not good...throw Silva in there as well.

When you're in the ALDS, yeah, you're playing to win the ALDS. Don't worry about the ALCS until you're there. They're already in the playoffs, worry about getting past the first round before thinking about the what-ifs in the second and third rounds. Regardless of home or away, I do not think that they can get 2 more wins out of a combination of Silva, Bonser, and Garza. Play to win the ALDS, worry about the ALCS when you get there.

MarySwiss
09-28-2006, 05:43 PM
I read somewhere that Santana was slated to start Game One of the ALDS. Be interesting to see if that changes, depending on the circumstances.

ma-gaga
09-28-2006, 05:50 PM
I read somewhere that Santana was slated to start Game One of the ALDS. Be interesting to see if that changes, depending on the circumstances.


Yeah, the decision has already been made. Santana's going game 1 and game 5. The real question is; who the hell do they throw out there for games 2-4? Or even if they should pitch Johan on 3 days rest for game 4.

From what I understand: Boof has game 2, Radke, if healthy, gets game 3. If not, Garza, and then Garza/Silva has game 4. It's pretty much a "hope the starters can give them 5 innings" deal, and let the bullpen take over after that.

If they pull it off, it'll be a miracle. :cool:

gbergman
09-28-2006, 05:52 PM
With our B lineup that should be out there sunday, I think they would start who ever is after Santana in the rotation pending results.

If the Twins win tonight they are tied for first with the Tigers. If the Tigers and Twins are tied going into sunday I say let Silva pitch, because if you win great but it doesnt matter if the Tigers win. If you both lose well ****. If the Twins are a game back sunday I say you pitch Silva also. If they are going to face the Yankees, having Santana pitch twice is a must. Same with Oakland as I would want Santana to pitch no matter what game one. If they follow there rotation into NY by having Silva then Radke go games one and two I think the Twins will be down 0-2 going into Minnesota. Personelly, I wouldn't let silva pitch in the post season except in a RP.

I think Santana shouldn't pitch this weekend.

Jjav829
09-28-2006, 05:53 PM
You save him for the playoffs. Regardless of who you play, you want Santana to be able to pitch in 2 out of those 5 games (if it goes that far). Santana is probably the best pitcher in baseball, he can shut down the Yankees...that's 2 out of 3 games right there. If they let him pitch on Sunday, he'd only be able to pitch in one of those games. If it comes down to a game 5, do you want Johan Santana or Carlos Silva (or whatever other BS they throw out there, Bonser, Garza, etc.). That rotation is not built for the playoffs (I can't even believe that it has held up this long), which is exactly why they won't make it very far. If they pitch Santana, they prove to me once again that they're just all about getting to the playoffs, not winning in them.

Absolutely. Having Johan start 2 of 5 games is more important than having that extra home game. The Twins are making the right move.

SouthSoxFan
09-28-2006, 07:30 PM
I honestly don't think they can win a 5-game series without Santana pitching twice. When you have to rely on young pitchers like Bonser and Garza, that's not good...throw Silva in there as well.

I agree they have no chance against the Yankees without Santana going twice. But history says they lose that scenario anyway even if he starts Game #1. But against the A's, different story. They are 5-1 against Oakland at the Dome this year, and you know how many of those games Santana pitched? zero. The one loss was Garza's, a 1-0 game that he picked up in the 3rd inning after they had to shut down Liriano. I think they have a much better chance of advancing by hosting the A's, regardless of who pitches, than they do against the Yankees.

Some other posts I think missed the question. Obviously you don't consider this if your destiny is not in your control. If you're tied with the Tigers going into Sunday, you don't control the situation. The Tigers win the tiebreaker. The question was if you were assured of a matchup with Oakland by winning on Sunday (i.e. one game ahead), would you use Santana to do it?

And to the other point about the Sox lineup. If we can prevent Minnesota from winning the division on Sunday, our starters will be in there.

oeo
09-28-2006, 09:03 PM
I agree they have no chance against the Yankees without Santana going twice. But history says they lose that scenario anyway even if he starts Game #1. But against the A's, different story. They are 5-1 against Oakland at the Dome this year, and you know how many of those games Santana pitched? zero. The one loss was Garza's, a 1-0 game that he picked up in the 3rd inning after they had to shut down Liriano. I think they have a much better chance of advancing by hosting the A's, regardless of who pitches, than they do against the Yankees.

Some other posts I think missed the question. Obviously you don't consider this if your destiny is not in your control. If you're tied with the Tigers going into Sunday, you don't control the situation. The Tigers win the tiebreaker. The question was if you were assured of a matchup with Oakland by winning on Sunday (i.e. one game ahead), would you use Santana to do it?

And to the other point about the Sox lineup. If we can prevent Minnesota from winning the division on Sunday, our starters will be in there.

It's a whole different story in the postseason. I'll be surprised if Bonser and Garza continue their success into the playoffs. Throw the records out the window (just look at the Sox records vs. Boston and Anaheim last year), they don't mean a damn thing in the postseason.

Myrtle72
09-28-2006, 09:06 PM
And to the other point about the Sox lineup. If we can prevent Minnesota from winning the division on Sunday, our starters will be in there.

It definately looks like the Sox/Twins series is going to make a difference this weekend. I certainly hope we can keep them from winning the division.

soxinem1
09-29-2006, 11:56 AM
If it's my call, he goes games 1 and 5, four if really needed.

viagracat
09-29-2006, 12:02 PM
Unfortunately, the Sox's recent performance has made this decision easy. :(:

The Twins are in; you do what gives you the best chance to advance right now. Style points this weekend don't count. :(: :(:

Ol' No. 2
09-29-2006, 12:34 PM
I agree they have no chance against the Yankees without Santana going twice. But history says they lose that scenario anyway even if he starts Game #1. But against the A's, different story. They are 5-1 against Oakland at the Dome this year, and you know how many of those games Santana pitched? zero. The one loss was Garza's, a 1-0 game that he picked up in the 3rd inning after they had to shut down Liriano. I think they have a much better chance of advancing by hosting the A's, regardless of who pitches, than they do against the Yankees.

Some other posts I think missed the question. Obviously you don't consider this if your destiny is not in your control. If you're tied with the Tigers going into Sunday, you don't control the situation. The Tigers win the tiebreaker. The question was if you were assured of a matchup with Oakland by winning on Sunday (i.e. one game ahead), would you use Santana to do it?

And to the other point about the Sox lineup. If we can prevent Minnesota from winning the division on Sunday, our starters will be in there.I think that's exactly right. It's not about home field - it's about not having to face the Yankees in the ALDS. Given their history, I think the Twins may pull out all the stops to try to win the division and avoid having to open in NY.

BNLSox
09-29-2006, 02:47 PM
I think that's exactly right. It's not about home field - it's about not having to face the Yankees in the ALDS. Given their history, I think the Twins may pull out all the stops to try to win the division and avoid having to open in NY.

I agree 100%. Santana isn't invincible anyway and the rest of the staff has been getting it done. At this point you play to win and getting the division title certainly would help on that front.

PushinWeight
09-29-2006, 03:44 PM
We are going to make the decision easy for them after we take some mini revenge and stamp their plane tickets to NY for them on their way to another 4 and done against the yanks.

viagracat
09-30-2006, 09:28 AM
I think that's exactly right. It's not about home field - it's about not having to face the Yankees in the ALDS. Given their history, I think the Twins may pull out all the stops to try to win the division and avoid having to open in NY.

But....but the A's have BILLY BEANE as their GM!

Ol' No. 2
09-30-2006, 02:13 PM
We are going to make the decision easy for them after we take some mini revenge and stamp their plane tickets to NY for them on their way to another 4 and done against the yanks.Looks like you could be prophetic. If the Tigers win their game today they clinch the division.

At least the season wasn't a total loss.

MarySwiss
09-30-2006, 02:25 PM
Looks like you could be prophetic. If the Tigers win their game today they clinch the division.

At least the season wasn't a total loss.

You know, somehow I just have a feeling this is all going to come down to tomorrow.

SouthSoxFan
10-01-2006, 01:20 PM
The original question never materialized since we finally figured out how to beat this team in the Dome. But it is interesting that they started Silva today on 3 days rest, instead of Baker who was originally slated. I guess they thought Silva on short rest gave them a better chance to win? Haven't we tagged him for 4 of his losses this year?